EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[mesan123]

It really SUCKS big time.....

This is my take:

- 140k remains as it is
- I am calling this category EB2-ENT (ent for entrepreneur)
- Since it is still second preference, it is not higher in preference to existing EB2, folks from I/C are still screwed even if they get into this EB2-ENT category, with regards to place in queue.

[victorian]

Guys, I just got a status update e-mail with status "Card Document/Production" status. PD- Mar 09, 2007. However, there is a slight twist in the tale. I changed my address a couple of days ago and called them to verify the change. Level 1 said that my document has been mailed out and transferred me to Level 2 to get my tracking number. Level 2 confirmed the address change, but said that my I-485 has not been approved. The online status says the same thing as the e-mail.

Is there any cause of concern that this might be a tech glitch with USCIS?

[PlainSpeak]

skpanda explained it well. The differnce is with the new option EB3 probably won't need to port at all. They can directly file as EB2 as long as they are otherwise qualified and can stay in the current job.






Nayekal, I am a man of numbers ... but your post is so honest ... I really want to set all my rationality aside and hope that your dream come true!!


BTM kind of started going off the table AFTER august bullein. See the trouble is .... if DoS sees 3K of demand which is worth of 1.5month for EB2IC then they can carry an entire year on that 3K and not have to move dates at all. Doesn't mean today BTM is completely ruled out. Only that it is not as strong possibility as many of us thought a few months back. Finally regardless where dates move, the dates must reach Q1 2008 by Q1 end of 2012. That is teh only way to ensure DoS has sufficient cases to approve during spillover season of 2012.

Ok i am in EB3 and I cannot port to EB2 because
1. I have 3 years bachelors degree
2. No company wants to file for GC .

Lost some offers because i am on EAD and not GC because company does not want to involve in the AC21 process at all.

Now i got another offer which will consider EAD and provide AC21 supporting document but will not do EB2.

Now i have 12 years of experience working in companies as an employee all this time. How can this new law help me an EB3.

[ssvp22]

Spec

Any idea about EB2-ENT NIW applications having to go through country quota? Or are they waived?

[natvyas]

I think the premium processing of I-140 for EB1 folks Is more harmful for us than the creation of this new category.

The only thing that can help us in 2012 is slowing down of the economy

Regards
Nat

PS we are screwed !!!!!

ssvp22,

Good spot.

I read it in the DHS article familyguy mentioned.



The USCIS page doesn't seem to have been updated yet.

That will be yet another factor that could lead to more EB1 approvals in FY2012, since to date EB1-C, accounting for 50% of EB1 approvals, was not eligible for PP.

[leo07]

The law is not clear yet. It could take any where between 6-12 months, if there are no cases to be filed against CIS for violating some rule already.

As of now with the information that's out, it appears that you can start your own company and potentially file for your own EB2 application with your experience to backup any claims. Which wasn't the case before. Obviously, it'll all depend on your ability to "prove" to CIS that you really are helping US.

My 2 cents worth

Ok i am in EB3 and I cannot port to EB2 because
1. I have 3 years bachelors degree
2. No company wants to file for GC .

Lost some offers because i am on EAD and not GC because company does not want to involve in the AC21 process at all.

Now i got another offer which will consider EAD and provide AC21 supporting document but will not do EB2.

Now i have 12 years of experience working in companies as an employee all this time. How can this new law help me an EB3.

[mesan123]

I think both the changes will defnitely have more effect on US..... Hoping atleast they use the unused visa's now or else it is really putting us in shit hole....where people like me with priority date in 2011 will have to wait for 10 more years...

Already had one bad luck this year where i could not port my 2009 date as i dont have copy of previous 140( as my previous employer doesnt wnat to share as i left the company) or even the A number so that port it....

I think the premium processing of I-140 for EB1 folks Is more harmful for us than the creation of this new category.

The only thing that can help us in 2012 is slowing down of the economy

Regards
Nat

PS we are screwed !!!!!

[nishant2200]

nnnnn123, you can request a copy of your approved I-140, A number, all that. just google search USCIS FOIA, and it will take you to USCIS links for FOIA. It will take sometime, but you will get them. The procedure is you apply first, they examine request, and get back to you within 30 days I believe about what the fees will be, then you pay the fees, and they further do the processing. the website indicates how much time it takes, what priority your application gets etc.

At least you will be in 2009 then...

I think both the changes will defnitely have more effect on US..... Hoping atleast they use the unused visa's now or else it is really putting us in shit hole....where people like me with priority date in 2011 will have to wait for 10 more years...

Already had one bad luck this year where i could not port my 2009 date as i dont have copy of previous 140( as my previous employer doesnt wnat to share as i left the company) or even the A number so that port it....

[mesan123]

Thank you nishant...hope i can get the results.....Thank you somuch once again....

one question here. i left my previous company when my i-140 was pending? i can port my 140 if it is approved right? i couldnot get answer form previous employer whether it is approved or not also, as he is not willing to disclose anything

nnnnn123, you can request a copy of your approved I-140, A number, all that. just google search USCIS FOIA, and it will take you to USCIS links for FOIA. It will take sometime, but you will get them. The procedure is you apply first, they examine request, and get back to you within 30 days I believe about what the fees will be, then you pay the fees, and they further do the processing. the website indicates how much time it takes, what priority your application gets etc.

At least you will be in 2009 then...

[nishant2200]

Yes you can port as long as it is approved or even cancelled but not cancelled due to fraud.

Second, some service center, I forget which one, has electronic handling of A numbers, so if your first 140 was with them, and second one also goes to them, they automatically, based on same A number, give you the older PD. I forget which service center does that, maybe someone on the forum knows. I think that's the future, all service centers will get there. A Number is assigned only once to an alien, and you will retain it forever.

Did you by any chance have OPT if you studied here, if you did, you would have got EAD, and that EAD has an A Number, so your A number would be the same on your 140s also.

[mesan123]

Thank you nishant for detailed message...no i was not in OPT. on work visa for last 5 years. My lawyer when i filled my 140 with current employer asked whether i have 140 copy or A number. i told i have none....so anyway will track the way you mentioned...i just pray my previous employer didnt revoke it before it got approved...fingers crossed...

Yes you can port as long as it is approved or even cancelled but not cancelled due to fraud.

Second, some service center, I forget which one, has electronic handling of A numbers, so if your first 140 was with them, and second one also goes to them, they automatically, based on same A number, give you the older PD. I forget which service center does that, maybe someone on the forum knows. I think that's the future, all service centers will get there. A Number is assigned only once to an alien, and you will retain it forever.

Did you by any chance have OPT if you studied here, if you did, you would have got EAD, and that EAD has an A Number, so your A number would be the same on your 140s also.

[veni001]

I think the premium processing of I-140 for EB1 folks Is more harmful for us than the creation of this new category.

The only thing that can help us in 2012 is slowing down of the economy

Regards
Nat

PS we are screwed !!!!!

natvyas,
It could be in the short-term, but in the long-run other things will play a bigger role....in determining Spillover from EB1

1. EB1-demand itself (increase/decrease from FY2011 level)
2. EB1 Approval/denial ratio ( in light of increased scrutiny)
3. Economy..etc

[nishant2200]

No EB2 approvals in trackitt so far for August. Guys you seen any news anywhere else, someone getting approved.

[Spectator]

Spec

Any idea about EB2-ENT NIW applications having to go through country quota? Or are they waived?

ssvp22,

I will say with 99.99999% certainty that these will be treated exactly the same as any other EB2, whether it be an EB2 sponsored by a start-up company or a self petitioned NIW.

A law change is required to create a new category, add visas or exempt anything from numerical limits of any kind, be it the overall numbers or the per Country limits. That is beyond the powers of USCIS.

This is just clarification that entrepreneurs may apply under EB2. Unless they are applying under Exceptional Ability, the need for an Advanced Degree or equivalent is the same.

Call me cynical, but I think the announcement has more to do with

These actions mark the six-month anniversary of Startup America, a White House-led initiative to reduce barriers and accelerate growth for America's job-creating entrepreneurs. They have also been one key focus of the President's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, which has recommended taking action to help ensure that America can out-innovate and out-compete the world in a global economy.
http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/20...itiatives.shtm

and the subject being the flavor of the month, than any real attempt to make things any better for anyone.

DHS just wants to look good and suck up to the President.

[GCFresher]

skpanda explained it well. The differnce is with the new option EB3 probably won't need to port at all. They can directly file as EB2 as long as they are otherwise qualified and can stay in the current job.






Nayekal, I am a man of numbers ... but your post is so honest ... I really want to set all my rationality aside and hope that your dream come true!!


BTM kind of started going off the table AFTER august bullein. See the trouble is .... if DoS sees 3K of demand which is worth of 1.5month for EB2IC then they can carry an entire year on that 3K and not have to move dates at all. Doesn't mean today BTM is completely ruled out. Only that it is not as strong possibility as many of us thought a few months back. Finally regardless where dates move, the dates must reach Q1 2008 by Q1 end of 2012. That is teh only way to ensure DoS has sufficient cases to approve during spillover season of 2012.

Q, Are you saying that there is a possiblity of PD not moving at all from Apr 15 2007 in september

[natvyas]

In this economy It's difficult to find an employer who would pay for green card let alone finding an investor in ones idea

However, the premium processing for EB1 folks is going to be painful

[nishant2200]

Spec, this also means that many things are up-to will and discretion of the administration, the elements in power.

Something like making dates Current every few years by citing some need, is not all that impossible, if there is the will.

Something like providing EAD to H4.

For instance, they happily made OPT more than 2 years, and expanded the eligible STEM areas, just like that.

[victorian]

You missed my post! I got an approval email!

No EB2 approvals in trackitt so far for August. Guys you seen any news anywhere else, someone getting approved.

Guys, I just got a status update e-mail with status "Card Document/Production" status. PD- Mar 09, 2007. However, there is a slight twist in the tale. I changed my address a couple of days ago and called them to verify the change. Level 1 said that my document has been mailed out and transferred me to Level 2 to get my tracking number. Level 2 confirmed the address change, but said that my I-485 has not been approved. The online status says the same thing as the e-mail.

Is there any cause for concern that this might be a tech glitch with USCIS?

[veni001]

ssvp22,

I will say with 99.99999% certainty that these will be treated exactly the same as any other EB2, whether it be an EB2 sponsored by a start-up company or a self petitioned NIW.

A law change is required to create a new category, add visas or exempt anything from numerical limits of any kind, be it the overall numbers or the per Country limits. That is beyond the powers of USCIS.

This is just clarification that entrepreneurs may apply under EB2. Unless they are applying under Exceptional Ability, the need for an Advanced Degree or equivalent is the same.

Call me cynical, but I think the announcement has more to do with

and the subject being the flavor of the month, than any real attempt to make things any better for anyone.

DHS just wants to look good and suck up to the President.

Spec

Any idea about EB2-ENT NIW applications having to go through country quota? Or are they waived?

ssvp22,
I agree with Spec, Only difference i could see between EB2-entrepreneur, when implemented, and EB5 is that EB5 require capital investment.

[bestin]

My chip is also on 1ST week of JULY 2007...for sep bulletin
As per the recent posting in "us non immigrant blog" the eb1 demand for this year is 26301 which closely matches our 27k approx.However this figure was based on extrapolation of data from 9.5 months in the former's case .ie 8712* 2.39(INCLUDING DEPENDENTS)*12/9.5...I believe that with the processing times of eb1 and taking this into consideration the premium cases it is better to multiply it by 10.5 for the demand this year instead of 12. ie 8700*2.39*10.5/9.5 which is approx 23k.Total available =40000-23000=17000-12000(already allocated)=5000 approx which makes me think that dates would move to first week of july 2010.

[ssvp22]

ssvp22,

I will say with 99.99999% certainty that these will be treated exactly the same as any other EB2, whether it be an EB2 sponsored by a start-up company or a self petitioned NIW.

A law change is required to create a new category, add visas or exempt anything from numerical limits of any kind, be it the overall numbers or the per Country limits. That is beyond the powers of USCIS.

This is just clarification that entrepreneurs may apply under EB2. Unless they are applying under Exceptional Ability, the need for an Advanced Degree or equivalent is the same.

Call me cynical, but I think the announcement has more to do with



and the subject being the flavor of the month, than any real attempt to make things any better for anyone.

DHS just wants to look good and suck up to the President.

Thank you for the response spec. I agree with you on the "suck up to the President". If you look at the words "Entrepreneur will be working for a U.S. employer who files a petition on the entrepreneur’s behalf", i cant make sense of them in any fashion. How can an Entrepreneur be employed with someone else? This clause in itself is going to cause the complete program to fail. All this seems to be similar to the trick a lazy developer will pull off in front of his manager - see i said you, this is not going to work.

Or maybe i am hung up on the words while they mean something else.

[Spectator]

Guys, I just got a status update e-mail with status "Card Document/Production" status. PD- Mar 09, 2007. However, there is a slight twist in the tale. I changed my address a couple of days ago and called them to verify the change. Level 1 said that my document has been mailed out and transferred me to Level 2 to get my tracking number. Level 2 confirmed the address change, but said that my I-485 has not been approved. The online status says the same thing as the e-mail.

Is there any cause of concern that this might be a tech glitch with USCIS?

victorian,

I did see your post, but I have been holding off on the congratulations because of your twist in the tale, particularly since you also said you have had an address change.

If the "Card Document/Production" status explanation said "On August 02, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you."

then it will be an approval.

If it said "On August 02, 2011 we mailed the document to the address we have on file. You should receive the new document within 30 days."

then it is likely only a confirmation of the address change.

Can you confirm what the text said?

[Spectator]

This is curious. Now, my status has gone back to "Decision" from "Document/Card Production"

Here is the text -

On August 2, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

I guess this means that my case is still not approved? Anyone have any insight?

victorian,

We were obviously typing at the same time! My last post now seems fairly redundant.

Many congratulations!!

The status bouncing around seems very common - don't worry about it - you are definitely green.

PS I know that is easy for me to say. You must be so excited.

[victorian]

Thanks Teddy and Spectator! LOL. The last paragraph completely reinforced my naturally pessimistic leanings. Wish all of you guys the very best of luck! I would pray, but being an atheist, my prayers might just not find a sympathetic ear.

victorian,

We were obviously typing at the same time! My last post now seems fairly redundant.

Many congratulations!!

The status bouncing around seems very common - don't worry about it - you are definitely green.

PS I know that is easy for me to say. You must be so excited.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends both the news from Today will be headwinds for SOFAD.

1) The entrepreneur category is a great avenue for inviting and giving a chance to good and deserving people to get GC. From the SOFAD purpose though it increases ROW consumption and hence will surely reduce SOFAD, it will really depend on how effective this new sub - category will be and how much traction it will attract. This category is like Eb5 junior.

2) Resumption of EB1 premium processing, I remember Spec's 15 month analogy, this year we enjoyed the SOFAD due to slower pace, next year might well be backlog alleviation + back to regular pace so it will be significantly less SOFAD it is almost like debt payment time. I think there will be huge money to cash in by premium processing.
These developments must be being planned at the time of the Aug bulletin, they kind of reinforce the fact that Sep nay not be very optimistic. Also if both 1 & 2 take place they will significantly reduce the chance of BTM happening before May 2012 if it does not happen in Sep 2011.