EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[Spectator]

there you go..now i am even more confident they will waste visas..why doesnt the CO just move the Final dates???

From a technical point of view, CO may not believe he has enough visas left in Q3 against the maximums he is allowed to use for the approval numbers that would generate.

Since he seems to have quite often ignored this in the past when it suited him, I don't think that really holds water. At this stage it also becomes hard to believe that he is still of the opinion that EB3-WW will use vast numbers.

spec: last year some spillover from eb3 row went to eb2 I rather than eb3 I...it wasn't direct, but a result of the EB2 I overallocation at the start of the year (and hence eb2 row needed to be 'funded' to ensure their quota was utilized)

so can CO possibly use eb3 row spill over visas for eb2 india again? clearly not as per the book, but he did it last year?

It's impossible to deny what happened in terms of the numbers.

Looking at the usage pattern, it's also hard to imagine that CO was not aware of the situation at the time he set the September 2015 VB (since he retrogressed EB2-I by more than 2 years), or shortly afterwards.

Of course, the correct action would have been to retrogress EB2-WW, either in the September VB, or internally once EB2 reached the maximum. He has always had a certain reticence to do that - perhaps because it is an admission of failure.

Alternatively, because the EB3-I COD was moved forward so late, it's not impossible that USCIS simply could not bring enough cases to a point where they could be approved in the time remaining in the FY.

Rather than waste visas against the overall allocation, CO allowed EB2 to continue approvals (even if that was not allowed). If that was the case, he did EB2-I a double favor - had those EB2-WW cases not been approved in FY2015, they would have been approved in FY2016. In that case, more visas would have been wasted in FY2015 and EB2-WW would likely use all (or a good part of) SO that will be available in FY2016.

I don't think we will ever know what truly happened, or why. Mistakes do happen, but the important thing is to learn from them and not repeat them. I'm not sure the EB3 lesson has been learned, or the dangers associated with allocating SO in EB2 too early.

[anuprab]

From a technical point of view, CO may not believe he has enough visas left in Q3 against the maximums he is allowed to use for the approval numbers that would generate.

Since he seems to have quite often ignored this in the past when it suited him, I don't think that really holds water. At this stage it also becomes hard to believe that he is still of the opinion that EB3-WW will use vast numbers.


It's impossible to deny what happened in terms of the numbers.

Looking at the usage pattern, it's also hard to imagine that CO was not aware of the situation at the time he set the September 2015 VB (since he retrogressed EB2-I by more than 2 years), or shortly afterwards.

Of course, the correct action would have been to retrogress EB2-WW, either in the September VB, or internally once EB2 reached the maximum. He has always had a certain reticence to do that - perhaps because it is an admission of failure.

Alternatively, because the EB3-I COD was moved forward so late, it's not impossible that USCIS simply could not bring enough cases to a point where they could be approved in the time remaining in the FY.

Rather than waste visas against the overall allocation, CO allowed EB2 to continue approvals (even if that was not allowed). If that was the case, he did EB2-I a double favor - had those EB2-WW cases not been approved in FY2015, they would have been approved in FY2016. In that case, more visas would have been wasted in FY2015 and EB2-WW would likely use all (or a good part of) SO that will be available in FY2016.

I don't think we will ever know what truly happened, or why. Mistakes do happen, but the important thing is to learn from them and not repeat them. I'm not sure the EB3 lesson has been learned, or the dangers associated with allocating SO in EB2 too early.

I hope so too Spec...on another note seeing some RFEs being reported for Jan/Feb 2005 EB3I. if the pace continues and its just May, maybe just maybe EB3I wont be punished this year!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Respectfully Spec, unlike their India counterparts ROW didn't receive their due visas because of lack of visas or wastage of visas. Their applications simply weren't ready to be adjudicated.

EB3-I are being robbed of due visas by not applying quarterly spillovers. ROW is not in that situation at all.

I totally agree with this. Wonder what the loudmouths at (the 2 words got bleeped out) are doing about this?

[asaxena2]

I hope so too Spec...on another note seeing some RFEs being reported for Jan/Feb 2005 EB3I. if the pace continues and its just May, maybe just maybe EB3I wont be punished this year!

Trackitt forum has reported rfes till Feb 2005 .Initally , NSC RFES were issued, last few days TSC has also become active.

[anuprab]

Trackitt forum has reported rfes till Feb 2005 .Initally , NSC RFES were issued, last few days TSC has also become active.

been quiet so wondering if anyone has anything positive to say for EB3I...i just wish they move the dates although 2006 seems hopeless for this year..YTEleven's chart is the only silver lining...

[GCwaiting]

What is in store for EB3-I now? What does this all mean to EB3-I?
Will there be any movement beyond 3 weeks monthly in FY'16?
What do the experts here say??

[amulchandra]

What is in store for EB3-I now? What does this all mean to EB3-I?
Will there be any movement beyond 3 weeks monthly in FY'16?
What do the experts here say??

This means EB2 I is the new EB3 I. I feel that EB3 I should get some SO this year. How much I do not know, may be 8-10k. Since the SO is applied only in the last quarter we can expect movement only in the last quarter. There will be no over allocation to EB2 I from EB3 like last year. As a result the movement should be better than last year for EB3 I.

There is less SO for EB2 I which means EB2 ROW demand has increased a lot. But since there is no dramatic increase in PERM filings I am hoping the demand in EB3 ROW is stable. So if things remain the same, Eb3 I should receive at least 8k SO this year. It would have been the case last year too, if EB2 I was not over allocated.

[amulchandra]

After this year's super hit-flop show of visa bulletins what do you all think about EB3 India's future next year. Will it at least reach end of 2006 next FY? I know that it is too early to predict but couldn't stop myself from asking.Feel completely exhausted because of this stupid process. I think for the first 3 quarters, we need not even watch VBs as the dates will be glued to March 2005 for EB3 I due to the sheer volume of pending 485s. Looking for any glimmer of SO at the end of FY provided PERM numbers come down. I am not expecting any legislative fixes.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Looking for any glimmer of SO at the end of FY provided PERM numbers come down. I am not expecting any legislative fixes.

That is what I am hoping for too - that PERM certifications will come down. That is the only hope as EB3I will only get relief from EB3ROW SO.

[anuprab]

That is what I am hoping for too - that PERM certifications will come down. That is the only hope as EB3I will only get relief from EB3ROW SO.

same shit repeated year after year, i was so hopeful last year after trolling all forums for EB3I but looks like these guys don't want to clear the backlog...hoping for a better 2017. PERMs are down but I am sure something else will come up!
hate this super f$%^& up immigration.

[asaxena2]

After this year's super hit-flop show of visa bulletins what do you all think about EB3 India's future next year. Will it at least reach end of 2006 next FY? I know that it is too early to predict but couldn't stop myself from asking.Feel completely exhausted because of this stupid process. I think for the first 3 quarters, we need not even watch VBs as the dates will be glued to March 2005 for EB3 I due to the sheer volume of pending 485s. Looking for any glimmer of SO at the end of FY provided PERM numbers come down. I am not expecting any legislative fixes.

My pd is first week of March 2005.When can I expect my PD to be current ?

[Spectator]

My pd is first week of March 2005.When can I expect my PD to be current ?

I won't try to answer the question directly.

What I will say is that you have a statistically much better chance because your PD is in the first week of March.

As part of the Chinese EB3 lawsuit, CO released the IVAMS figures for EB3 as of July 19, 2010. That showed that EB3-I applications are not distributed evenly for March 2005 - the majority are in the last week.

Mar 1 to Mar 7 ------- 7.8% = FAD of 08MAR05
Mar 8 to Mar 14 ----- 10.7% = FAD of 15MAR05
Mar 15 to Mar 21 ---- 14.2% = FAD of 22MAR05
Mar 22 to Mar 31 ---- 67.3% = FAD of 01APR05

The % are likely to have remained similar over time.

The reason is almost certainly due to the RIR / PERM changeover for labor certification.

[asaxena2]

I won't try to answer the question directly.

What I will say is that you have a statistically much better chance because your PD is in the first week of March.

As part of the Chinese EB3 lawsuit, CO released the IVAMS figures for EB3 as of July 19, 2010. That showed that EB3-I applications are not distributed evenly for March 2005 - the majority are in the last week.

Mar 1 to Mar 7 ------- 7.8% = FAD of 08MAR05
Mar 8 to Mar 14 ----- 10.7% = FAD of 15MAR05
Mar 15 to Mar 21 ---- 14.2% = FAD of 22MAR05
Mar 22 to Mar 31 ---- 67.3% = FAD of 01APR05

The % are likely to have remained similar over time.

The reason is almost certainly due to the RIR / PERM changeover for labor certification.

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Excellent analysis, 'Spectator'

[EB3Iwaiting]

S Korea is dominating ROW. Even last year, they took almost 10k GCs in the EB category. Their FB demand is very low allowing them to take more in EB and still stay in ROW.

[Spectator]

S Korea is dominating ROW. Even last year, they took almost 10k GCs in the EB category. Their FB demand is very low allowing them to take more in EB and still stay in ROW.

It's true that SK have very low use in FB and have the potential to use many more visas and still stay within the overall 7% limit.

For FY2015 the allocations for FB and EB were 226,000 and 144,796 respectively. The overall 7% limit was 25,956. https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...mber-2015.html

Although not strictly correct, prorated, it could be thought of as:

FB = 226,000 * 7% = 15,820
EB = 144,796 * 7% = 10,136

South Korea used 1,028 FB visas and 9,926 EB visas in FY2015, so SK didn't even reach the prorated 7% for EB.

[EB3Iwaiting]

With high SK filings in recent years, they will probably go past their 7% in EB soon. But it is amazing that they only took 1k in FB last year. Guess it it the first generations who have started to come here now. I am afraid that with low FB quota, they will take out more from EB quota and still stay within the ROW which takes out more from SO. Last years stats do suggest that they are more EB2 than EB3.

[Dukeldh]

My priority date is January 2011 EB3-I. When should I expect to apply for ead. Thanks!

[kiran_july_2004]

My priority date is January 2011 EB3-I. When should I expect to apply for ead. Thanks!

Considering the current situation, it might take anywhere between 2 to 5 years. Advice is to prepare with alternatives and stay positive.

[idliman]

My priority date is January 2011 EB3-I. When should I expect to apply for ead. Thanks!

This cannot be determined as of now. Only scenarios can be discussed. You need to discuss both EB2I & EB3I together. There is upward and downward porting from one Q to another Q. So for all practical purposes they will stay close to one another.
You know that for EB2I, PDs are in the first half of 2009 for the last 5 years or so. It is being told that it will take another 3 years for EB2I, 2009 to clear without any spillover. What is interesting is that due to EO, there may be some spillover from FB to EB. It can be as high as 100,000 to as low as say 20,000. These are decided by the admin and one call from Stephen Miller can make or break all our lives. I suggest you to read the prediction forum for an understanding. Bottom line is there will be a spillover, however the admin has always found creative ways (subtle change in policy) to deny spillover to India/China in the last few years. Everyone is hoping for a decent spillover. If that happens, then 2009 will get cleared faster.

Based on my personal heartbreaks and hopes for PDs to move, Just assume that you get 3K+3K for EB2I and EB3I. Then try to calculate demand approximately (or use paid services like whereismygc). The paid services will give you more accurate demand data and prediction. However, policy decisions are at the hand of administration. Anything can happen. Best case scenario for you is 2 to 3 years. Worst case scenario, I don't even want to say it. Good Luck and Welcome to this forum.