EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[EB3Iwaiting]

Yes EB3Iwaiting - there always is new demand. Plus there is unprocessed demand from last year. The question is how much would both be? To answer that we need to know the consumption during 2015. Those reports are not out yet.

It is really sadistic to not release the reports yet. Is it intentional since the visagate lawsuit is going on?

[qesehmk]

It is really sadistic to not release the reports yet. Is it intentional since the visagate lawsuit is going on?

It is very insensitive to say the least. Somehow i have a feeling that some visas were wasted in 2015. Lets see if my feelings are validated.

[EB3Iwaiting]

It is very insensitive to say the least. Somehow i have a feeling that some visas were wasted in 2015. Lets see if my feelings are validated.

So, you think USCIS wasted visas last year? I specifically remember getting an email from USCIS where they said they have stopped processing all I-485s as they have run out of visas.

[qesehmk]

So, you think USCIS wasted visas last year? I specifically remember getting an email from USCIS where they said they have stopped processing all I-485s as they have run out of visas.

Check out the 485 approvals under 485 performance data for 2015 on DHS website and then add the CP approvals from DoS site. Those two add up slightly less than 140K. My memory (and I may be wrong) is that during 2015 143K visas were available. Check and let me know what you think.

[mechanical13]

So, you think USCIS wasted visas last year? I specifically remember getting an email from USCIS where they said they have stopped processing all I-485s as they have run out of visas.

It's such a shame that USCIS is as inefficient as it seems to be. Why hasn't anyone proposed a process efficiency/restructuring initiative at USCIS? Fire 80% of the workforce, outsource the technology deployments, and streamline processes to make it a lean machine.

[Spectator]

Check out the 485 approvals under 485 performance data for 2015 on DHS website and then add the CP approvals from DoS site. Those two add up slightly less than 140K. My memory (and I may be wrong) is that during 2015 143K visas were available. Check and let me know what you think.

Q,

I'd caution about doing that.

USCIS figures are s**t and mixing and matching those figures with DOS ones may give a figure that is not very accurate.

A case in point, using FY2014 figures as you propose:

AOS approvals from the USCIS All Forms Data for FY2014 was 126,939.
CP cases from Table VI of the DOS Visa Statistics was 21,365.

That gives a total of 148,304 which is well below the 150,241 EB allocation for FY2014.

The only problem is that Table V of the DOS report shows 151,359 total approvals for FY2014 - actually more than the allocation.

The DOS figure for AOS approvals was 129,994 - a difference of 3,055.

The FY2015 mixed calculation gives 117,416 AOS approvals (from USCIS) plus 21,613 CP approvals (from DOS). That's a total of 139,029 against the published allocation of 144,796 (a difference of 5,767).

While that is large, its not entirely beyond USCIS capability to have made that sort of error.

I can't deny that there may well be a small shortfall this FY given the gap, but let's at least acknowledge that in FY2013 and FY2014, more EB visas were issued than the official allocation (3,921 in total).

[vyruss]

Q,

I can't deny that there may well be a small shortfall this FY given the gap, but let's at least acknowledge that in FY2013 and FY2014, more EB visas were issued than the official allocation (3,921 in total).

Trust your number crunching there Spec. But isn't USCIS breaking the law if they issue more than what they are supposed to any fiscal year? If they are not breaking the law then why not recapture some of the visas they have wasted in the past. I keep on hearing that they would need some kind of legislation for that. Or is USCIS merely stating that they try to adhere to the visa limits in good faith and occasionally it is possible to go over/under.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. I agree and appreciate your thoughts.

Lets wait for the final data from DoS then!

Q,

I'd caution about doing that.

USCIS figures are s**t and mixing and matching those figures with DOS ones may give a figure that is not very accurate.

A case in point, using FY2014 figures as you propose:

AOS approvals from the USCIS All Forms Data for FY2014 was 126,939.
CP cases from Table VI of the DOS Visa Statistics was 21,365.

That gives a total of 148,304 which is well below the 150,241 EB allocation for FY2014.

The only problem is that Table V of the DOS report shows 151,359 total approvals for FY2014 - actually more than the allocation.

The DOS figure for AOS approvals was 129,994 - a difference of 3,055.

The FY2015 mixed calculation gives 117,416 AOS approvals (from USCIS) plus 21,613 CP approvals (from DOS). That's a total of 139,029 against the published allocation of 144,796 (a difference of 5,767).

While that is large, its not entirely beyond USCIS capability to have made that sort of error.

I can't deny that there may well be a small shortfall this FY given the gap, but let's at least acknowledge that in FY2013 and FY2014, more EB visas were issued than the official allocation (3,921 in total).

[HarepathekaIntezar]

To be honest - DoS works 10 times better than DHS. So some credit is due to CO.

I am wondering how difficult or expensive it must be to Rig up a report. Maybe it will also cost DOS $1 Billion, like it did for USCIS? If DoS is 10 times better than DHS, then how come they cannot publish their Reports on time and in a clear format?

[qesehmk]

I am wondering how difficult or expensive it must be to Rig up a report. Maybe it will also cost DOS $1 Billion, like it did for USCIS? If DoS is 10 times better than DHS, then how come they cannot publish their Reports on time and in a clear format?

DoS has published a lot of 2015 data. DHS hasn't even published 2014 annual report! That's the difference unfortunately.

But I hear you. I don't understand why DoS has to wait for DHS to publish something. They should know how many visas they granted by country category.

[anuprab]

[QUOTE=qesehmk;57162]DoS has published a lot of 2015 data. DHS hasn't even published 2014 annual report! That's the difference unfortunately.

But I hear you. I don't understand why DoS has to wait for DHS to publish something. They should know how many visas they granted by country category.[/QUOTE

I know EB3 india is expected to move nicely this year mainly from spillover from EB3RoW. what is the risk that EB3RoW filings increase suddenly and jeopardize any movement, are we back to the 2-3 weeks movement again in this most unlucky category then ??

[qesehmk]

I know EB3 india is expected to move nicely this year mainly from spillover from EB3RoW. what is the risk that EB3RoW filings increase suddenly and jeopardize any movement, are we back to the 2-3 weeks movement again in this most unlucky category then ??

That risk is moderate or low. But the risk of EB3-P NVC applications is moderate or high. EB3-P CP demand is a dark horse and we dont know their time distribution.

[qesehmk]

Finally, this is the first time CO has semi-officially acknowledged that the estimated Filing Dates may not be reached. That is newsworthy and significant. Until now, it has only been people like those on this forum who have drawn that conclusion.

On a serious note - I am reasonably sure that the EB3-I FAD are too conservative. And as you observed earlier CO kept mum on potential SOFAD from EB3-ROW.

[Spectator]

On a serious note - I am reasonably sure that the EB3-I FAD are too conservative. And as you observed earlier CO kept mum on potential SOFAD from EB3-ROW.

Q,

Yes, I'm quite mystified by CO's approach to EB3.

I know I can be conservative (annoyingly so to some people at times), but come on!

CO could make fairly major movements already without taking any risks at all.

Realistically, there's limits to how high the other EB3 Countries can go and an absolute minimum number of extra visas that will become available to EB3-I.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Q,

Yes, I'm quite mystified by CO's approach to EB3.

I know I can be conservative (annoyingly so to some people at times), but come on!

CO could make fairly major movements already without taking any risks at all.

Realistically, there's limits to how high the other EB3 Countries can go and an absolute minimum number of extra visas that will become available to EB3-I.

Couldn't have said it better Spec. Regarding "I know I can be conservative (annoyingly so to some people at times)", I know I have been too. What CO is doing with EB3 is a mystery. Ironically, he did not even mention anything about ROWs at all. I noticed another thing in his statement and that is what HE DID NOT SAY. Remember in the last few months, he kept saying that "rapid movement of EB3ROW cutoff dates will generate demand and it will need to be adjusted (retrogressed) accordingly. So far that has not happened, hopefully he has given up on that. Even if there is an increase in PERM certifications, the demand is not enough to retrogress the dates.

I believe whatever he will do will happen in the final 3 months. USCIS may be resistant to do any extra work before the last quarter and their relationship has only gone worse after the Oct VB debacle and the lawsuit. This will lead to visa wastage in the end and after the misallocation last year, EB3Is just cannot catch a break.

I agree that the Filing dates will only move once the pending inventory is low enough to generate demand and that will happen for EB3I before EB2I. The Filing Date for EB2I seems too optimistic now and the Filing date for EB3I is too pessimistic.

[anuprab]

Couldn't have said it better Spec. Regarding "I know I can be conservative (annoyingly so to some people at times)", I know I have been too. What CO is doing with EB3 is a mystery. Ironically, he did not even mention anything about ROWs at all. I noticed another thing in his statement and that is what HE DID NOT SAY. Remember in the last few months, he kept saying that "rapid movement of EB3ROW cutoff dates will generate demand and it will need to be adjusted (retrogressed) accordingly. So far that has not happened, hopefully he has given up on that. Even if there is an increase in PERM certifications, the demand is not enough to retrogress the dates.

I believe whatever he will do will happen in the final 3 months. USCIS may be resistant to do any extra work before the last quarter and their relationship has only gone worse after the Oct VB debacle and the lawsuit. This will lead to visa wastage in the end and after the misallocation last year, EB3Is just cannot catch a break.

I agree that the Filing dates will only move once the pending inventory is low enough to generate demand and that will happen for EB3I before EB2I. The Filing Date for EB2I seems too optimistic now and the Filing date for EB3I is too pessimistic.

and i know what is going to happen..over alloction to EB2 and underallocation to EB3

[EB3Iwaiting]

and i know what is going to happen..over alloction to EB2 and underallocation to EB3

Probably not overallocation to EB2 looking at how cautiously he is moving EB2I dates. This time it can be simple wastage in EB3 category. Either way, EB3Is will lose.

[Spectator]

I agree that the Filing dates will only move once the pending inventory is low enough to generate demand and that will happen for EB3I before EB2I. The Filing Date for EB2I seems too optimistic now and the Filing date for EB3I is too pessimistic.

EB3Iwaiting,

That might give rise to a very interesting situation.

As you have said, it's quite possible that the EB3-I backlog will be exhausted before the EB2-I one is.

It's my understanding that USCIS only have the choice to accept ALL the EB Filing Dates, or none at all. That is, in such a situation USCIS could not allow a Filing Date for EB3-I alone.

That seems to leave two choices:

a) USCIS allow all EB Filing Dates for a short period when such a situation occurs, with CO moving the EB3-I date fairly considerably at that point to collect a new Inventory beyond July 2007. All other EB Categories would potentially benefit as well. However, if CO was too aggressive, USCIS might simply not accept the Filing Date for EB3-I and therefore all EB Filing Dates.

b) USCIS won't accept EB Filing Dates and CO is forced to move the Final Action Date for EB3-I forward considerably to collect Inventory. USCIS would have no say in whether to accept new applications or not. The Final Action Date would eventially retrogress significantly as sufficient new applications were processed to completion.

I'm not sure which scenario I would bet on. USCIS have shown an unwillingness to use the Filing Dates so far. If (b) happens, then it would be no different than when Filing Dates did not exist.

I think it does highlight a flaw in the new system, where it is "All or Nothing". Different Categories and Countries move at different speeds and USCIS may have different opinions about individual Filings Dates published by DOS.

I think it was a huge mistake to allow USCIS any say in whether to accept Filing Dates or not, once the initial debacle was sorted out. The accuracy of the Filing Dates is predominantly a function of the quality of information provided by USCIS to DOS when setting them. If USCIS had been forced to accept Filing Dates, they might have also been forced (for their own advantage) to provide better information to DOS.

[gcq]

As far as CO's opinion or lack of opinion about EB3-I, just ignore it. As I have claimed before CO has a bias for EB3-ROW. He will hold the dates till the last few months for EB3-I and in the final months move them drastically forward. I think he is being conservative with EB3-I assuming most of EB3-I applications are pre-adjudicated except for new medical and EVL which can be provided in around a month. The filing date for EB3-I is already in July 2005. Even if USCIS does not accept new applications based on that filing date, they still can dust up EB3-I applications already with them and get ready.

[qesehmk]

As I have claimed before CO has a bias for EB3-ROW.

Yes because at least he should be allocating spillover every quarter. That way he will still be on the right side of law. But under the name of not violating law he waits right till the last month every year.

That makes room for doubt that he indeed has a bias for EB3-ROW or worse ... against EB3-India.

[amulchandra]

Yes because at least he should be allocating spillover every quarter. That way he will still be on the right side of law. But under the name of not violating law he waits right till the last month every year.

That makes room for doubt that he indeed has a bias for EB3-ROW or worse ... against EB3-India.

If I can add more spin to this -- EB3 I pre-Aug 2007 applicants are the only people paying for EAD/AP. A combo card is worth 800-1000 dollars.
If you look at it in a different way visa wastage in EB3 causes financial loss to EB3 I applicants.

[anuprab]

Yes because at least he should be allocating spillover every quarter. That way he will still be on the right side of law. But under the name of not violating law he waits right till the last month every year.

That makes room for doubt that he indeed has a bias for EB3-ROW or worse ... against EB3-India.

That is scary, i just hope common sense prevails and the CO moves the dates for EB3I aggressively without wasting any visas. Wasting visas when people are in line for over a decade is akin to blasphemy and needs to be punished severely!!

[anuprab]

and financial gains to USCIS

[Spectator]

As I have claimed before CO has a bias for EB3-ROW.

gcq,

If you had said CO seems to have a positive bias towards EB3-P (and EB3-M previously as well), then I might agree.

I think CO just dumps on EB3 in general.

Over the last 5 years (FY2011-FY2015) EB3 has received 10.3k less visas than their allocation. When you don't get any FD from other categories, that's a big deal.

EB3-ROW have been the biggest "victims" in terms of lost visas. Excluding last FY when it can be argued EB3-ROW were effectively Current for half a year, the shortfall over the previous 5 years (FY2010-FY2014) is 36.1k against their nominal allocation. That's about 18 months worth of EB3-ROW average approvals.

That's huge, not only for ROW, but for EB3-I as well. With no vertical spillover, EB3-I rely on FA within EB3 for extra visas. Had ROW received all the visas due, they would have become Current much earlier and EB3-I would have been receiving FA for longer.

[Spectator]

If I can add more spin to this -- EB3 I pre-Aug 2007 applicants are the only people paying for EAD/AP. A combo card is worth 800-1000 dollars.
If you look at it in a different way visa wastage in EB3 causes financial loss to EB3 I applicants.

amulchandra,

I agree this is an absolute travesty and a scandal. The charges for EAD and AP for pre August 2007 EB applicants should have been waived long ago, as a humanitarian gesture if nothing else.