Some ROW PERM Figures For Info Only

[Spectator]

Ive had these for a while, but I'm not sure how they would translate into future numbers. I present them for info only and in the hope they may be of use to someone else.

Firstly, I noticed that there was quite a good correlation between FY2015 ROW Trackitt approvals and ROW PERM certifications 1 year earlier. The following graph shows this:

ROW PERM FY2014 vs Trackitt FY2015.jpg

The next graph shows ROW PERM Certification for FY2013 to Q1 FY2016. The reason for low ROW approvals in FY2014 and higher approvals in FY2015 might be explained by the graph if the 1 year gap held true. It's less clear what might happen in FY2016 because other factors are now altering the equation. For instance, there's some evidence the EB2:EB3 ratio for ROW may be changing.

ROW PERM FY2013 to FY2016.jpg

Finally, here's a graph showing the average monthly PERM certifications for ROW for FY2013 to Q1 FY2016:

ROW PERM per month.jpg

Of course, volume of certifications is very dependent on OFLC's productivity, which has waxed and waned over the period in question.


Make of the information what you will. It may be the proverbial crock!!

[qesehmk]

Ive had these for a while, but I'm not sure how they would translate into future numbers. I present them for info only and in the hope they may be of use to someone else.

Firstly, I noticed that there was quite a good correlation between FY2015 ROW Trackitt approvals and ROW PERM certifications 1 year earlier. The following graph shows this:



The next graph shows ROW PERM Certification for FY2013 to Q1 FY2016. The reason for low ROW approvals in FY2014 and higher approvals in FY2015 might be explained by the graph if the 1 year gap held true. It's less clear what might happen in FY2016 because other factors are now altering the equation. For instance, there's some evidence the EB2:EB3 ratio for ROW may be changing.



Finally, here's a graph showing the average monthly PERM certifications for ROW for FY2013 to Q1 FY2016:



Of course, volume of certifications is very dependent on OFLC's productivity, which has waxed and waned over the period in question.


Make of the information what you will. It may be the proverbial crock!!

Thanks Spec. The last graph is very useful and somewhat worrisome. It may mean that EB3ROW may not yield as much SOFAD as we would think otherwise..

[vyruss]

Thanks Spec. The last graph is very useful and somewhat worrisome. It may mean that EB3ROW may not yield as much SOFAD as we would think otherwise..

If the pace is sustained in FY2016 Q2, you would be right Q.

[qesehmk]

One question spec - does your last graph represent volume of approvals or volume of applications?

If it is the former then I take my earlier words back.

[vyruss]

One question spec - does your last graph represent volume of approvals or volume of applications?

If it is the former then I take my earlier words back.

He says PERM "Certifications". So I am assuming he is implying approvals.

[qesehmk]

He says PERM "Certifications". So I am assuming he is implying approvals.

Thanks Vyruss. I am being senile!

[anuprab]

I am being selfish here and rightly so (being a patient EB3I filer) but hope the increased filing is in EB2 RoW category so EB3 I still gets decent spillover and doesn't move one or two weeks every VB.