EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[CleanSock]

Also what is this date for EB3 ROW...15th July 2015. Is this a joke? Today is 10th July. Why not make it current?

[amulchandra]

Spec, does this mean that whatever FA EB3 India is going to get in the last quarter will be shared by other countries too since all of them are retrogressed equally?

Theoretically yes IF they have pending applications with such an old PD which I highly doubt.

[axecapone]

Is anyone surprised that EB3 China has retrogressed massively? Does that bode bad news to EB2/EB3 India?

[sstest]

Is anyone surprised that EB3 China has retrogressed massively? Does that bode bad news to EB2/EB3 India?

(I think) Any retrogression is generally meant to to hold the numbers within the statutory limits. EB3I is the category with densest, oldest set of PDs in EB3 so almost all of the spillover should continue to go to that.

[Suva2001]

Also what is this date for EB3 ROW...15th July 2015. Is this a joke? Today is 10th July. Why not make it current?

This bulletin would be effective from Aug 1. That's why July 15.

[Suva2001]

Theoretically yes IF they have pending applications with such an old PD which I highly doubt.

No countries other than India have older PD before 2010 in EB3. So 100% SO should go to EB3-India.

[GC2000]

Any predictions for EB3-I September VB?

[amulchandra]

I have a question about quarterly SO. From the Visa modernization report that was published in July, it seems from October VB onwards DHS might apply quarterly SO. The following is the verbiage from the report.

Recommendation 2:
Refine monthly allocation of visas.
State will increase monthly visa allocation totals during the first three quarters of the fiscal year to the degree permitted by law in order to ensure that fewer numbers are left for the final quarter, thereby ensuring that visa numbers issued are as closely aligned with statutory mandates as possible.

I am wondering, if this is really implemented what would be the movement for EB3 I in the next two quarters.
The following is the link to the PDF.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...on_report1.pdf

[amulchandra]

To YTeleven,

Looks like your predictions for EB3 I are coming true. EB3 I jumped to DEC 22 2004. A huge leap.

Can you please provide your opinion on how it is going to be in FY 2016. My PD is July 22 2006. Do you think I stand a chance in 2016?

Thanks a lot
Amul

[YTeleven]

To YTeleven,

Looks like your predictions for EB3 I are coming true. EB3 I jumped to DEC 22 2004. A huge leap.

Can you please provide your opinion on how it is going to be in FY 2016. My PD is July 22 2006. Do you think I stand a chance in 2016?

Thanks a lot
Amul

Amul,

This chart was created approx. an year ago and now we are seeing that the current trend of EB3-I is similar to what we predicted in the chart.
I still do believe that in FY16, 50% of EB-3 quota will go to EB3-I, clearing all the existing EB3-I backlogs and triggering the inventory build up and no more EB3 to EB2 upgrades and EB2-I people will start realizing the option of downgrading to EB3-I.
please see my previous post on what we can expect in next 18 months. I'm still sticking to what I said except few deviations.

Will wait and see. I'm pretty much sure you should be current by this time next year.

[amulchandra]

Amul,

This chart was created approx. an year ago and now we are seeing that the current trend of EB3-I is similar to what we predicted in the chart.
I still do believe that in FY16, 50% of EB-3 quota will go to EB3-I, clearing all the existing EB3-I backlogs and triggering the inventory build up and no more EB3 to EB2 upgrades and EB2-I people will start realizing the option of downgrading to EB3-I.
please see my previous post on what we can expect in next 18 months. I'm still sticking to what I said except few deviations.

Will wait and see. I'm pretty much sure you should be current by this time next year.

Thank you very much for your reply YTEleven . Hope your words come true. I am anxiously waiting for the end of this long journey.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Amul,

This chart was created approx. an year ago and now we are seeing that the current trend of EB3-I is similar to what we predicted in the chart.
I still do believe that in FY16, 50% of EB-3 quota will go to EB3-I, clearing all the existing EB3-I backlogs and triggering the inventory build up and no more EB3 to EB2 upgrades and EB2-I people will start realizing the option of downgrading to EB3-I.
please see my previous post on what we can expect in next 18 months. I'm still sticking to what I said except few deviations.

Will wait and see. I'm pretty much sure you should be current by this time next year.

Nice chart and I believe it is most accurate prediction so far. How come you have not projected the EB3-ROW line through FY2015/FY2016 like you have done for EB3I?

[mechanical13]

Nice chart and I believe it is most accurate prediction so far. How come you have not projected the EB3-ROW line through FY2015/FY2016 like you have done for EB3I?

YTEleven, great work on the predictions. Do you have a similar prediction for EB2-I? Seems like it is on track to become the new EB3-I. Would be nice to see some positive information on that front (if any)

[anuprab]

Thank you very much for your reply YTEleven . Hope your words come true. I am anxiously waiting for the end of this long journey.

Based on all the discussions and the fantastic chart by YTEleven, what is the probability that June 2006 PD EB3 India will get greened in FY 2016? Thanks experts for all your hard work in crunching the data!

[qesehmk]

Guys - I just noticed that EB3-I retrogressed from Dec 2004 to Mar 2004 in Oct bulletin.

I just wanted to say that it indicates incredible incompetence or insensitivity or both on part of DoS.

EB3-I is the worst affected category in EB immigration. It doesn't get worse than this because they are most retrogressed and they will consume every single visa you through at them. So one would expect complete predictability in EB3 category. DoS shouldn't have to move those dates ahead and retro them because 100% of those cases should be preadjudicated. So the only uncertainty should be in cases that people have abandoned. But for reasons best knows to DoS they chose to move the dates far and then retro.

They could simply have adjusted the dates right at the last month and held their because they knew exactly the unused number of visas at the end of August. But no - that's not what they would do. I am amazed to say the least.

[Suva2001]

Guys - I just noticed that EB3-I retrogressed from Dec 2004 to Mar 2004 in Oct bulletin.

I just wanted to say that it indicates incredible incompetence or insensitivity or both on part of DoS.

EB3-I is the worst affected category in EB immigration. It doesn't get worse than this because they are most retrogressed and they will consume every single visa you through at them. So one would expect complete predictability in EB3 category. DoS shouldn't have to move those dates ahead and retro them because 100% of those cases should be preadjudicated. So the only uncertainty should be in cases that people have abandoned. But for reasons best knows to DoS they chose to move the dates far and then retro.

They could simply have adjusted the dates right at the last month and held their because they knew exactly the unused number of visas at the end of August. But no - that's not what they would do. I am amazed to say the least.

I think it's a stop gap measure on USCIS side. There were lot of approvals with PDs till Dec 22, 2004. If you check the tracker below more than 50% people got approved. Also I am pretty sure there are many got approved too in the other 50%. Just that those users hasn't reported in "t r a c i t t" yet. So after Sep 30 there shouldn't be more than 3000-4000 people left in 2004. That means they have to move the date forward at certain point of time, may be from Dec, 2015.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=577133620

Thanks

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Guys - I just noticed that EB3-I retrogressed from Dec 2004 to Mar 2004 in Oct bulletin.

I just wanted to say that it indicates incredible incompetence or insensitivity or both on part of DoS.

EB3-I is the worst affected category in EB immigration. It doesn't get worse than this because they are most retrogressed and they will consume every single visa you through at them. So one would expect complete predictability in EB3 category. DoS shouldn't have to move those dates ahead and retro them because 100% of those cases should be preadjudicated. So the only uncertainty should be in cases that people have abandoned. But for reasons best knows to DoS they chose to move the dates far and then retro.

They could simply have adjusted the dates right at the last month and held their because they knew exactly the unused number of visas at the end of August. But no - that's not what they would do. I am amazed to say the least.

I think this 'Dates for Filing Applications' has messed up everything. USCIS initially screwed up the EB dates for China, India and Philippines and FB Dates for Mexico. Then they tried to correct it with their revised Oct VB. The concept is sound however - They want to invite such Applicants to file for their AOS that they think will be processed to 'Final Action' in the next 12 months. DOS and USCIS have never been known to be Mathematically or logically sound. Here is a post from trackitt that I agree with. It does seem conservative compared to YTeleven chart. The user is predicting EB3I.

Here are my calculations of how it will work in FY-2016. Let us start with October.

Total EB3 Visas = 3126

Definitely used up due to pending inventory:
India = 233
Phillipines = 233
China = 233
Mexico = 233

Total for Row = 2192

If USCIS is unable to utilize any of these 2192 visa by October 8th, they will be transferred to the oldest pending Applicants, a lions share of whom happen to be from India, and the November VB Dates will reflect this Spillover.

The most valid of speculations is how many of these 2192 Visas will be used up by ROW. Even though July Inventory total is 11K pending ROW Applicants, logically the fact that Approvals were being handed out till the last day of the FY to India Applicants would suggest that the ROW Inventory of Eligible Applicants had been cleared and only after that the balance was transferred to India. The only ones that are in the Inventory would be those who are waiting for name checks and other RFE responses.

I expect to see a ROW Inventory of around 3K in October Inventory. But again like I mentioned, quite a few of them would be waiting for name checks and RFE responses and so I expect about 500 - 600 visas to spillover to India. That would result in November VB PD moving forward to June 2004.

Given the pipeline of new AOS filers for EB3 in general has been declining dramatically (based on published reports of I-140 Approvals), as they too seem to have caught on to the fact that EB2 que had been moving a lot faster. I expect 800-1000 new ROW filers every month. That would leave us with unused ROW visas of 800-1000 every month.

We also have approximately 150 Porters a month vacating their seats in EB3 que and grabbing EB2 Visas.

I expect the VB movement to be something like this:

Nov 15 VB - June 2004
Dec 15 VB - Sep 2004
Jan 16 VB - Nov 2004
Feb 16 VB - Jan 2005
Mar 16 VB - Mar 2005
Apr 16 VB - Mar 2005
May16 VB - Mar 2005
Jun 16 VB - Sep 2005
July 16 VB - Dec 2005
Aug 16 VB - Feb 2006
Sep 16 Vb - Apr 2006

[amulchandra]

Hi YTEleven,

I am wondering if there are any changes in your projection for EB3I for FY 2016. Can you please share your thoughts?

Thank you very much
Amul

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I don't see anything that would alter @YTEleven's projection. The ROW demand in FY2016 still seems to be as weak or weaker than in FY2015. Just a matter of waiting for April VB to start the SO for FY2016.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3ROW after being technically current for the last few VBs have now slightly fallen behind. Though 1st Oct would still be technically current considering the time taken for PERM processing. CO in his meeting with AILA last month had said that he will move EB3ROW to 15th Oct. But EB3ROW still remains at 1st Oct. Is there new demand in EB3ROW or CO is just being too conservative and not moving the dates? If the pending inventory report comes out this week, it will shed new light on EB3ROW demand.

But is there any reason why CO is not moving EB3ROW dates? Should we worry that this will result in less SO to EB3I?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB3ROW after being technically current for the last few VBs have now slightly fallen behind. Though 1st Oct would still be technically current considering the time taken for PERM processing. CO in his meeting with AILA last month had said that he will move EB3ROW to 15th Oct. But EB3ROW still remains at 1st Oct. Is there new demand in EB3ROW or CO is just being too conservative and not moving the dates? If the pending inventory report comes out this week, it will shed new light on EB3ROW demand.

But is there any reason why CO is not moving EB3ROW dates? Should we worry that this will result in less SO to EB3I?

I am beginning to NOT believe everything that CO says. He can't get DOS to configure the CP Pending Inventory in the same format as USCIS does and neither can he release it in time like USCIS does. He seems to be a big BS'er.

[mechanical13]

I am beginning to NOT believe everything that CO says. He can't get DOS to configure the CP Pending Inventory in the same format as USCIS does and neither can he release it in time like USCIS does. He seems to be a big BS'er.

You know, CO actually reads this forum... comments like yours are going to hurt his feelings.

[qesehmk]

If CO is reading this - instead of feeling hurt for himself he should feel the hurt of the backlogged candidates. He should learn their state of affairs and push through transparency and administrative reforms as much as he can.

To be honest - DoS works 10 times better than DHS. So some credit is due to CO.

You know, CO actually reads this forum... comments like yours are going to hurt his feelings.

[EB3Iwaiting]

If CO is reading this - instead of feeling hurt for himself he should feel the hurt of the backlogged candidates. He should learn their state of affairs and push through transparency and administrative reforms as much as he can.

To be honest - DoS works 10 times better than DHS. So some credit is due to CO.

Q, Is it possible that EB3ROW has new demand? Maybe old PDs deciding to file now? Either way, that may not be good news for EB3I as they will get less SOs. EB3I being the most retrogressed category badly needs all the visas it can get. I hope the pending inventory is released this week and will give us a better idea. What are your thoughts?

[qesehmk]

Yes EB3Iwaiting - there always is new demand. Plus there is unprocessed demand from last year. The question is how much would both be? To answer that we need to know the consumption during 2015. Those reports are not out yet.

Q, Is it possible that EB3ROW has new demand? Maybe old PDs deciding to file now? Either way, that may not be good news for EB3I as they will get less SOs. EB3I being the most retrogressed category badly needs all the visas it can get. I hope the pending inventory is released this week and will give us a better idea. What are your thoughts?