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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #4901
    Quote Originally Posted by natvyas View Post
    Nishant

    The authentic information we have on the NVC receipt, is from someone with a PD of June 08, right?

    Regards
    Nat
    Nat, the only June 08 I know of, is a user called Vick something, on IV. He claims he has June 08 and got NVC notice. Otherwise most of the chatter or noise I saw on internet forums, was all people until March-April 2008, this is my impression.

    No one has actually scanned a notice and put it up, so with regards to "authentic", can't really say we have verified proof.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 07-26-2011 at 01:02 PM. Reason: clarified about 'authentic'

  2. #4902
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Nat, the only June 08 I know of, is a user called Vick something, on IV. He claims he has June 08 and got NVC notice. Otherwise most of the chatter or noise I saw on internet forums, was all people until March-April 2008, this is my impression.

    No one has actually scanned a notice and put it up, so with regards to "authentic", can't really say we have verified proof.
    Nishant... i guess these are mostly emails which people have copy pasted...

  3. #4903
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Here is my latest feelings on the movement. Of course with any new information coming in, it can change.

    Dates would move 8 weeks to 15th June 2007, 4k movement.

    Then in FY 2012, dates will move slowly, a week or two weeks, each bulletin, until it hits 15th August 2007. By this time, they will be in end of Q2, beginning of Q3, and CO/DOS will have a projection trend of expected SO, as well as accumulated demand for EB2 I/C and Porting so far till that point in time, then based on this, they will do the BTM. They may realize at this point, that they only need applications until 2007 year end, but still may move by a few more months, in 2008, to make inventory, as well as hold promise to the NVC notices. So far from internet extensive searching, I have never found a situation where they sent NVC notices and dates did not move in the coming year.
    My prediction... Now as we all have confirmed that we would have around 5K-7K visas for IC in sep, the dates will move to the end of back log and from then onwards, we can see a SFM a month or couple of months each VB... below is the scenario which CO has taken to explain what would happen going forward from the chinese site... YES YES YES... i can decode the code... It says if a house have 12K income per year, the house head might want to budget 1K per month and change the number accordingly with the income...with this approach they will reach Apr 2008 before end of Q2...which is in line with NVC receipts.... i dont have the link for now... so please dont interrogate asking me for it... as i say...belief lies in the head of the beholder... read how it suites you...
    Last edited by soggadu; 07-26-2011 at 01:19 PM.

  4. #4904
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    My prediction... Now as we all have confirmed that we would have around 5K-7K visas for IC in sep, the dates will move to the end of back log and from then onwards, we can see a SFM a month or couple of months each VB... below is the scenario which CO has taken to explain what would happen going forward from the chinese site... YES YES YES... i can decode the code... It says if a house have 12K income per year, the house head might want to budget 1K per month and change the number accordingly with the income...with this approach they will reach Apr 2008 before end of Q2...which is in line with NVC receipts.... i dont have the link for now... so please dont interrogate asking me for it... as i say...belief lies in the head of the beholder... read how it suites you...
    sogaddu, u are a GC-Pandit now with ur 200th post. congratulations.

    on 'read how it suites you', I would like to say that, sure, read how it suits, but share what your mind says without bias. your heart may read what it suits, but ur mind should share only what sounds reasonable as per facts, analysis and measured interpretation.

  5. #4905
    Hi Dreamer - Thank you for sharing the link. For me it comes to Dec 17th 2011. If this happens then i will be the happiest person .

  6. #4906
    Friends ...

    Just a few thoughts that linger in my head as we are waiting for September bulletin.

    1. A request to all newbies - PLEASE READ THROUGH PRIOR PAGES before you ask questions. Its ok to ask questions. But its more appropriate when you have done your part and then still have questions.

    2. Another request to all newbies - If you read the information on this forum, you will find that people here have really done better work than anywhere else. So while we don't and will never discourage posting links to other site - there is a huge chance that all those other sites are not providing anything incremental value than what already is discussed here. And I am concerned about quality of discussion on this thread than web traffic redirection and such silly stuff. We are not concerned about other sites getting hits from our site. If there value there by all means - lets do it. But we request that you exercise good judgement in determining is the other site really providing ANY incremental information not available here.

    3. A request to all - As we are growing, the noise indeed sometimes gets too big. So while posting anything lets ask ourselves .... does this really help somebody one step closer to establishing better clarity? We don't believe in censorship - so everybody needs to use his/her best judgement to ask whether our posts are helping somebody.

    Didnt mean to sermon or preach. But only if each one of us is concerned about sharing USEFUL information - then all of us will benefit. So pardon any offense - none is intended.

    Appreciate the discussion.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 07-26-2011 at 04:09 PM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  7. #4907
    Q... i understand what you say... But not every time does we have useful information... as for me... yes i do believe my posts help people... some help by number crunching and i contribute in a different way, no offense Q bhai... If you all think that everybody should crunch numbers and everybody should get information from CO or everybody should analyze data.... then this world should only be made of edisons but not with people who use the bulb without knowing how it works but use it to light up their lives... No offense again....

  8. #4908
    soggadu .... Point well taken. I wouldn't dispute yours or anybody else's judgement. Its your call. You are our Chief Humor Officer
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    Q... i understand what you say... But not every time does we have useful information... as for me... yes i do believe my posts help people... some help by number crunching and i contribute in a different way, no offense Q bhai... If you all think that everybody should crunch numbers and everybody should get information from CO or everybody should analyze data.... then this world should only be made of edisons but not with people who use the bulb without knowing how it works but use it to light up their lives... No offense again....
    Quote Originally Posted by geterdone View Post
    nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
    http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7...0Testimony.pdf
    That is extremely powerful testimony. Impossible to better job than this guy. Thanks for posting!
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  9. #4909
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    My prediction... Now as we all have confirmed that we would have around 5K-7K visas for IC in sep, the dates will move to the end of back log and from then onwards, we can see a SFM a month or couple of months each VB... below is the scenario which CO has taken to explain what would happen going forward from the chinese site...
    Are we now more or less certain on the 5K - 7K visas that will be allocated to EB2-I/C? Has there been any new input from CO and/or the Chinese website? Going by Spec's calculation, if we have 5K then the dates that will be cleared will be 1st week of July and 7K for EB2-I/C can clear PDs up to end of July.

  10. #4910
    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    Are we now more or less certain on the 5K - 7K visas that will be allocated to EB2-I/C? Has there been any new input from CO and/or the Chinese website? Going by Spec's calculation, if we have 5K then the dates that will be cleared will be 1st week of July and 7K for EB2-I/C can clear PDs up to end of July.
    I went back through few posts, but dont see any collective evidence that says 5k to 7k visa for next month. Is it confirmed in Chinese website - did qblogfan confirmed it from chinese?

  11. #4911
    Thanks! That was helpful. I know nothing is a 100% but do you feel that there is a very high probability of my PD becoming current next year (May or June)?

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    yesman it depends on how terrible your situation is. I would wait till October to see if BTM happens (refer first page of thread). If it doesn't then the only time it will reach April 2008 will be May 2012 onwards. Once you become current then you can switch jobs only 6 months after filing 485. So that a total of 1 yr from Oct 2011.

    Your new employer may be able to process everything within 1 yr. But that's a risk. So its your call. ..how unhappy you are today vs r you willing to take risk w new employer. If everything goes fine ... timeline wise I don't think you will lose if you change jobs.

  12. #4912
    I don't want to create a falser rumor here - but a discussion thread on trackitt claims that a link to September visa bulletin was active on USCIS website last week and it showed the EB2 I priority date 22JUN07.

    Here is the trackitt discussion thread: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

    Also here is the visa bulletin link that was supposedly active last week (it is not active anymore): http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...tember2011.pdf

    I apologize if it is purely a prank or rumor on somebody's part.

  13. #4913
    nishant, You played a couple of scenarios for me very well. I'm inclined to stay put at the moment with the current employer and pursue other projects/opportunities within the company. Thanks everyone for your inputs.

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    I would put chances of you being current and getting EAD as 90% for next year. I would put chances of you getting green card as 50% next year. This if you stick with same job.

    When you join a new employer, most employers start GC after a year, except if it's a consulting company or a small company with less strict rules, or if during hiring, you get to convince them about your situation, sometimes even set in stone place bulge. Suppose you manage to convince to start after six months, they would need to go for a recruiting effort and advertising campaign for the GC job position. Then they would file PERM labor. I am assuming this in total will take 6 months. So suppose you leave in September 2011, then in September 2012 you would have an approved PERM. Now if in September 2012, your date, April 2008, is current, which is a 50-50 chance as per me (it would be 90% few months earlier in 2012 assuming CO is doing some BTM), you can file 140 and 485 concurrently, or just file 140. Now, suppose your 140 takes 4 months to approve, then in January 2013, at which time around (few months after), I am putting 90% chance you would be current (again), and could get 485 approved or be able to file. If you had filed 485 concurrently, you would get GC in late 2012, early 2013, if not, then late mid 2013.

    If staying with current employer is making your life miserable, and if you are going to get new job in a non consulting company, which shall be able to prove ability to pay and will do a bonafide recruiting campaign, then leave. Else just stick around and get done with it. One more year, you should get EAD.

    ps: LOTR quote to inspire: “The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail. But hope remains, if friends stay true.”

  14. #4914
    Quote Originally Posted by superdesi2100 View Post
    I don't want to create a falser rumor here - but a discussion thread on trackitt claims that a link to September visa bulletin was active on USCIS website last week and it showed the EB2 I priority date 22JUN07.

    Here is the trackitt discussion thread: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

    Also here is the visa bulletin link that was supposedly active last week (it is not active anymore): http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...tember2011.pdf

    I apologize if it is purely a prank or rumor on somebody's part.
    no ..no...this is a rumor. There is a guy on trackitt called anadprahha...or something like that, who's been chanting that date and praying to God etc...because that date was mentioned on another popular EB prediction forum. I think that he thinks that if he keeps posting this date a few 100 times, it will become true.

  15. #4915
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    I dont agree that Republicans are anti immigrants... please understand the difference in opinion... anti illegal immigration is not anti immigration on the whole... when i talk to tea baggers, it really puzzles me that people at the grass root are so not aware of the plight of the legal immigrants... and they are pro legal immigration... I see a lot of rep senators introduce bills for helping legal immigration...but Dem's on the other hand are using the card w.r.t illegals and trying to gain mileage....
    This was my understanding too. You are absolutely correct.

    As I said earlier, it is good to see these persistent efforts. And I am serious when I say, something will happen in the next 10 years. It will be too late for a lot of us here, we would be done either way by then. But think about time few years from now, when economy is improving, there is good demand in all EB categories, also EB3 from 2002 to xyz, are able to port more easily, and most people are filing EB2 in I/C, and hence effectively SO is also less, if any to I/C. There might hence come a time when both EB3 and EB2 will be similarly stuck, in fact EB3 may fare better than EB2. This is a doomsday scenario, but not an impossible one I think. So as they say, the guy asked the old man, why are you planting mango tree, you will die before it gets fruit, the old man said, I am planting it for future generations.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 07-26-2011 at 04:09 PM.

  16. #4916
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    no ..no...this is a rumor. There is a guy on trackitt called anadprahha...or something like that, who's been chanting that date and praying to God etc...because that date was mentioned on another popular EB prediction forum. I think that he thinks that if he keeps posting this date a few 100 times, it will become true.
    I agree. It is too far fetched.

    If only one could examine the web-server logs for the website, we could see if any request for http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...tember2011.pdf met with a HTTP 200 or 304

  17. #4917
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    I have moved the discussion about the Senate Committee Testimony to the General Immigration Discussion http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ion-Discussion
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  18. #4918
    I didn't get any new information regarding the visa number. At the same time, I would not trust their information too much. Nobody really confirmed this information. Mr.CO also provided inaccurate information to the public in the past.

    Quote Originally Posted by grnwtg View Post
    I went back through few posts, but dont see any collective evidence that says 5k to 7k visa for next month. Is it confirmed in Chinese website - did qblogfan confirmed it from chinese?

  19. #4919
    On a trackitt thread, there is talk of Wipro informing its employees that they won't do EB1 unless a Division Head approves. So it seems like the big consulting companies are feeling the heat.

    I would also like to say though, I looked at the immigrant visa statistics on the DOS website, and it also looks like Canada and UK also grabbing a lot of these! Looking at FY 2010, around 7k grabbed by EB1 I, I think around 2k-3k of these could be additionally saved due to above policy procedures of big indian consulting companies. Just an estimation.

  20. #4920
    Good Morning Guys - Just wanted to share this link. someone is predicting a momement between 1-6 months for september. whats your take on this.
    http://www.ezdia.com/immigration/sep...edictions/180/

  21. #4921
    1-6 months ???? Any one can say that. Even my 6 year old son can guess if I ask him to do so.

  22. #4922
    Quote Originally Posted by indiaeb2 View Post
    Good Morning Guys - Just wanted to share this link. someone is predicting a momement between 1-6 months for september. whats your take on this.
    http://www.ezdia.com/immigration/sep...edictions/180/
    1-6 months ? These sites are just generating ad revenues from this bulletin news. My Pre-K kid can guess better that this.

  23. #4923
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    no ..no...this is a rumor. There is a guy on trackitt called anadprahha...or something like that, who's been chanting that date and praying to God etc...because that date was mentioned on another popular EB prediction forum. I think that he thinks that if he keeps posting this date a few 100 times, it will become true.
    ha ha....every one has their own way. Probably many of us are doing poojas/prardhanas/vraths for GC.
    Looking at the current scenario, it all depends on their logic and its difficult to get into their head unless some body hack uscis's Brain using B-Mail ( Brain mail) technology

  24. #4924
    July approvals slowed down?
    Right now
    All Nationalities = 325
    India= 298

  25. #4925
    Folks, lets not give undue recognition to some of these forums. Unfortunately, most of those sites, including some of the paid sites, are holding our emotions hostage.

    Use your own judgement to decide if the news holds any water. If you personally don't think it would, then please don't bother posting here. It's waste of time to even discuss the merits/demerits.

    Quote Originally Posted by indiaeb2 View Post
    Good Morning Guys - Just wanted to share this link. someone is predicting a momement between 1-6 months for september. whats your take on this.
    http://www.ezdia.com/immigration/sep...edictions/180/

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