EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[familyguy]

Interesting Doc:

http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/mod...et_6_27_11.pdf

[kd2008]

Interesting Doc:

http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/mod...et_6_27_11.pdf

That is a great find, familyguy!

From that document, "Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010"

Oh boy! Not good, not good!

[mesan123]

That is a great find, familyguy!

From that document, "Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010"

Oh boy! Not good, not good!

May be 50% of the filling are porting folks from EB3 to EB2......

[veni001]

Interesting Doc:

http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/mod...et_6_27_11.pdf

familyguy,
Good find.

[nishant2200]

Also one has to remember, FY 2010 was at bottom of recession. All indications to me are FY 2012 will be lucky to get 20k SO. That wud be the goal to reach.

[veni001]

That is a great find, familyguy!

From that document, "Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010"

Oh boy! Not good, not good!

My calculations validate this, see below...

May be 50% of the filling are porting folks from EB3 to EB2......

We don't know for sure...

Also one has to remember, FY 2010 was at bottom of recession. All indications to me are FY 2012 will be lucky to get 20k SO. That wud be the goal to reach.

FY2010 Receipts (cases filed in FY2010 only)

From FY2010 PERM data
FY2010 IC approvals = 10,173
FY2010 ROWMP approvals = 7,877
FY2010 Denials/Withdrawn= 2,040

From FY2011(Q1+Q2) PERM data
FY2010 IC approvals = 13,213
FY2010 ROWMP approvals = 9,220
FY2010 Denials/Withdrawn= 477

From above data FY2010 PERM receipts = ~ 43K (or ~28K for first 8 months of FY2010)
From the FY2011 PERM document Oct'10-May'11 Receipts = ~45K (this validates 63% increase in first 8 months of FY2011 )

PERM applications proced in April'11-May'11
Oct'10-May'11 Receipts = ~45K
FY2011(Q1+Q2) approvals = 7.1K (only cases filed in FY2011)
FY2011(Q1+Q2) Denials = 0.4K (only cases filed in FY2011)

Above document shows both audits and review dates are in FY2011, which means 73% of the 22,000 pending PERM should be from FY2011 only. Since FY2009 saw the bottom, most of the appeals (24%) should also from FY 2011.

Let's take 85% of the pending PERM cases (=~19K) are from FY2011.
PERM processed in April'11-May'11 = 45K-7.1K-0.4k-19K = 18.5K
From FY2011(Q1+Q2) PERM data Approval to Denial ratio is 81:19

April'11-May'11 PERM approvals = 15K (from USCIS dashboard i140 receipts(include EB1&EB2NIW) are ~14K for the same period)

If we add the delay (~1 month) from PERM approval time to i140 receipt, then the delta between PERM approvals and i140 receipts is ~2.4K, which mean EB1 140 receipts for April & May are at the same level as Q1&Q2

[druvraj]

First of all I would like to congratulate everyone who have their PD current and to those as well who might become current in the sept bulletin to bring curtains on this visa year. I must say this year was great for all those who are from EB2IC and expecting such Spill over in the coming years will be stupid. Here are my 2 cents

1. I see very little help from EB2row for the visa year 2012 as i feel the economy will get better and more EB2row applicants will come. Do not underestimate people from pak , bangladesh etc... This year we got a few thousand from this category.
2. EB1 I feel like next year we should see some spillover but not a lot. Even though there is a backlog and and a potential to receive new cases one cannot get the required expertise in one year. I am very hopeful that USCIS will review all EB1 cases strictly and clear only the ones who are qualified. we might not get 12K but 6-8K is possible.
3. EB4-5 will help EB2IC for sure.
4. EB2C will get even less I guess but not sure.
5. Family based I have no clue. Can anyone tell me why we got spillover last year and not this year and is there is any for next year?

Please feel free to critique or comment. Anyways I have a PD of Feb 2008 and I just like others want to move on but am stuck.

[veni001]

First of all I would like to congratulate everyone who have their PD current and to those as well who might become current in the sept bulletin to bring curtains on this visa year. I must say this year was great for all those who are from EB2IC and expecting such Spill over in the coming years will be stupid. Here are my 2 cents

1. I see very little help from EB2row for the visa year 2012 as i feel the economy will get better and more EB2row applicants will come. Do not underestimate people from pak , bangladesh etc... This year we got a few thousand from this category.
2. EB1 I feel like next year we should see some spillover but not a lot. Even though there is a backlog and and a potential to receive new cases one cannot get the required expertise in one year. I am very hopeful that USCIS will review all EB1 cases strictly and clear only the ones who are qualified. we might not get 12K but 6-8K is possible.
3. EB4-5 will help EB2IC for sure.
4. EB2C will get even less I guess but not sure.
5. Family based I have no clue. Can anyone tell me why we got spillover last year and not this year and is there is any for next year?

Please feel free to critique or comment. Anyways I have a PD of Feb 2008 and I just like others want to move on but am stuck.

druvraj,
Agree we may not get similar to this year's SOFAD moving forward, but you never now!

Also looking at history and I-360 trend, i don't think there will be any spillover from EB4

Any prior year unused VISAs from FB will spillover to current year EB and viceversa. Based Q1+Q2 FB usage by USCIS, i don't think there will be any FB spillover next year!

[druvraj]

druvraj,
Agree we may not get similar to this year's SOFAD moving forward, but you never now!

Also looking at history and I-360 trend, i don't think there will be any spillover from EB4

Any prior year unused VISAs from FB will spillover to current year EB and viceversa. Based Q1+Q2 FB usage by USCIS, i don't think there will be any FB spillover next year!

Veni,

In that case I feel like we might get only 8-10K of spill over along with 2.8K of regular quota. This effectively means that we might reach Jan 1 2008 at the most if no BTM happens.

[qblogfan]

Q, yes, I agree.

Mr.CO never told people accurate information in the past. Also he changes his mind quickly.

I would not put too much trust into the rumors on mitbbs. We have to use our own judgement. Let's see what will happen in the next VB.

BamBam - Congratulations! Joy when shared increases.




qbf - to be honest while I do believe its possible - I doubt CO will say it so clearly. In terms of disclosing useful information he is only next to Alan Greenspan.


Spec ... a very interesting statistic I will tell you ... if you look at the historical (i.e. 2000 till date) EB2I approvals and add the 2011 backlog of EB2I. The total number comes exactly to 16K per year. So it means while demand is 16K per year, EB2I also sees approvals of 16K per year over extended periods. So EB2I will most likely never be current as a category but the great news is they will always get GC in 4-5 years start to finish as long as no other category's demand increases in a fundamental manner.


Spec ... are you aware Little MAster is "Sunil Gavaskar" not "Tendulkar". That point beside.... I feel happy as well as lucky to have such a community we have built. The way people react and respond and share to help others - proves that given a chance people generally are good and of helping nature. Lets keep it that way.

[nishant2200]

Veni,

In that case I feel like we might get only 8-10K of spill over along with 2.8K of regular quota. This effectively means that we might reach Jan 1 2008 at the most if no BTM happens.

In an old post 4538, I had done some simple calculation from just PERM data compiled in the facts and data section by the gurus.

I am re-pasting some of it here, but that will show you that with just 8-10k, plus 2.8, say 12.8k, porting will eat away half. and remaining 7k will not even cross 2007. My figures are bit higher, per others, but still, just 10k will not be good to cross 2007.

Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

[veni001]

Veni,

In that case I feel like we might get only 8-10K of spill over along with 2.8K of regular quota. This effectively means that we might reach Jan 1 2008 at the most if no BTM happens.

druvraj,
Based on the information we have to-date EB1 demand is really low(less than 12k in Q1+Q2) and EB2ROWMP usage is more or less the same as last year. With the increased efforts from USCIS EB5 may pick-up some new demand but not sure how long it is going to sustain.

So the key for future years SOFAD will be based on how EB1,EB2ROWMP and EB5 is going to behave!

[nishant2200]

For me, 11/2007, I think it's going to go down to the last ball of the over. btw, yesterday I won 3 dollars in the Mega Millions Lottery draw. seriously.

[veni001]

For me, 11/2007, I think it's going to go down to the last ball of the over. btw, yesterday I won 3 dollars in the Mega Millions Lottery draw. seriously.

nishant,
Good, you can buy three more tickets now!

[indiasunil]

nishant,
Good, you can buy three more tickets now!

I got $12, bought for $5. lost .. hahah.

Sunil.

[BamBam]

I found this on Murthy.com. I do not see any potential benefit other than being a source of revenue for USCIS and causing more hurdles for EB-IC who are waiting for in terms of decades.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_mtaacr.html

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your hard work!

In an old post 4538, I had done some simple calculation from just PERM data compiled in the facts and data section by the gurus.

I am re-pasting some of it here, but that will show you that with just 8-10k, plus 2.8, say 12.8k, porting will eat away half. and remaining 7k will not even cross 2007. My figures are bit higher, per others, but still, just 10k will not be good to cross 2007.

Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

[nishant2200]

I found this on Murthy.com. I do not see any potential benefit other than being a source of revenue for USCIS and causing more hurdles for EB-IC who are waiting for in terms of decades.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_mtaacr.html

U r correct in ur observations. Thanks for sharing.

My additional take. More they tighten screws on EAD folks, more porting.

[qesehmk]

Absolutely ...

Murthy's website doesn't clearly state their stand on this proposal. I hope they oppose it.

I found this on Murthy.com. I do not see any potential benefit other than being a source of revenue for USCIS and causing more hurdles for EB-IC who are waiting for in terms of decades.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_mtaacr.html

[nishant2200]

Absolutely ...

Murthy's website doesn't clearly state their stand on this proposal. I hope they oppose it.

Q, law firms will not vehemently oppose something which may lead to porting, or fees in terms of people hiring them to renew apps, fill out forms, pay for advice on same or similar prioir to changing, sign onto G28s to appear as attorney. They don't really care about anyone's well being, it's a business. Lobby groups, ombudsman, AILA, ... These guys I have seen take up well being issues.

[Sandeep2011]

I joined the forum today but have been following all the discussions for last couple of days. I would like to sincerely thank all gurus and everyone else who have been active on this forum, for their amazing work and support to each other. I need some advice - my PD is EB2I 19th Sept 07 and I have to be outside US for the months of Feb and Mar' 12 for work. What is the likelihood of me filing 485 before Feb'12 and also is there any documentation that I need to have to make my return to US easier. I'll have a valid H1B visa, do I need anything else? Any comments or pointers to where I can find relevant information will be really appreciated. Thank you.

[gcq]

I found this on Murthy.com. I do not see any potential benefit other than being a source of revenue for USCIS and causing more hurdles for EB-IC who are waiting for in terms of decades.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_mtaacr.html

IMO this is not just a revenues source. It is a necessary formality to ensure that our AC21 reaches our file. Today there is no way of guaranteeing that our AC21 letters are filed properly along with our I-485 resulting in unnecessary RFEs and NOID. As long as the fee is nominal, it should be fine.

[qesehmk]

I wouldn't worry too much if its a 2 month stay abroad. Worst case is you file CP. As per reentry - valid H1 visa is usually enough. I personally always take a letter from HR stating that I am employed and was traveling abroad for personal or business reasons.

I joined the forum today but have been following all the discussions for last couple of days. I would like to sincerely thank all gurus and everyone else who have been active on this forum, for their amazing work and support to each other. I need some advice - my PD is EB2I 19th Sept 07 and I have to be outside US for the months of Feb and Mar' 12 for work. What is the likelihood of me filing 485 before Feb'12 and also is there any documentation that I need to have to make my return to US easier. I'll have a valid H1B visa, do I need anything else? Any comments or pointers to where I can find relevant information will be really appreciated. Thank you.

IMO this is not just a revenues source. It is a necessary formality to ensure that our AC21 reaches our file. Today there is no way of guaranteeing that our AC21 letters are filed properly along with our I-485 resulting in unnecessary RFEs and NOID. As long as the fee is nominal, it should be fine.

I may be wrong but I thought the news stated that today there is NO requirement that one file anything. AC21 is just a provision that one can benefit without filing anything. Which if true beats any new form / requirement that USCIS will put forth. Then the GC applicant will have to go through an additional "approval" process for AC21 , isn't it?

[gcq]

I may be wrong but I thought the news stated that today there is NO requirement that one file anything. AC21 is just a provision that one can benefit without filing anything. Which if true beats any new form / requirement that USCIS will put forth. Then the GC applicant will have to go through an additional "approval" process for AC21 , isn't it?

AC21 is invoked when someone changes job as per law. If USCIS doesn't come to know about this, they won't do anything. If the old employer withdraws I-140, USCIS will have no way of knowing whether you have a qualifying same/similar job so that they can continue processing I-485. With no former process of notifying AC21, the AC21 letter send may not even reach the file.

When they have a formal process, AC21 is guaranteed to reach your file as you already paid the fee with the proper forms.

[skpanda]

FYI,
just noticed that USCIS has officially posted the I485 inventory (May 2011) on their site.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Earlier we had access to this somewhere in the site but not along with prior inventory.