Can some one explain to me why EB3I is expected to get SO from EB3WW? Why isn't this going to EB2I? Has some thing changed because I thought every year this SO is going to EB2I? With this SO, will EB3I become current?
Iatiam
Can some one explain to me why EB3I is expected to get SO from EB3WW? Why isn't this going to EB2I? Has some thing changed because I thought every year this SO is going to EB2I? With this SO, will EB3I become current?
Iatiam
This is how it works - EB1 -> EB2 -> EB3Originally Posted by iatiam
EB2-I receives the excess visas from EB1/Eb2WW. As EB2-I is backlogged so EB3-I doesn't get anything out of that. EB3WW gets around 28,000 visas every year from normal quota. 2015 would be the 1st year after many years when EB3WW doesn't have much demand to use that number. So excess from EB3WW would go to most backlogged candidates in the SAME category such as EB3-I because EB3-I is most backlogged in EB3.
General rule is excess visas should go to most backlogged countries in the SAME category first. This means EB2-I would first receives from EB2WW as both are EB2 categories. Similarly EB3-I would first receives from EB3WW as both are EB3 categories.
Last edited by Suva2001; 03-24-2015 at 04:57 PM.
Because EB3 visas never come back into EB2. The only place unused EB3ROW visas can go is the most backlogged applications in EB3 (country doesn't really matter).
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Iatam,
Essentially what Suva has said.
The term "Spillover" is comprised of two components:
a) Fall Down/Up - Unused visas in one Preference Category can be used in another Preference Category according to rules defined in the INA.
1) Unused numbers in EB4 and EB5 can Fall Up to EB1.
2) Unused numbers in EB1 can Fall Down to EB2.
3) Unused numbers in EB2 can Fall Down to EB3.
4) Unused numbers in EB3 are used in the computation of the next FY Family Based allocation. They do not Fall Down/Up to any other Employment Based Preference Category.
To be clear, there is no mechanism for EB2 to benefit from the under use of EB3 visa numbers. However, EB (and EB2-India in particular) benefits far more from the spare visas received from FB than any wasted from EB3.
b) Fall Across
Unused numbers within a Preference Category are first made available to other Countries within the same Preference Category.
1) Firstly they would be made available to any Country that has not yet reached the overall 7% limit.
2) Once demand from (i) has been satisfied (or the Countries themselves reach the 7% limit) they are made available to Countries that have already reached the 7% limit on a strictly earliest Priority Date basis.
This is because the Category Preference Allocation limit (28.6% of the total EB allocation) is higher in the hierarchy than the Preference Category (EB2, EB3 etc) alone.
That is to say, for the base 140,000 EB limit, the 40,040 visas allocated to EB3 cannot be used by any other Category while EB3 has demand from any Country within EB3.
Similarly, EB1 could not use EB2 FA if they had a sufficiently high demand.
ii) If all demand within a Preference Category is satisfied, then both FA and FD numbers can Fall Down to the next Preference Category (if applicable).
In practice, this FY, the most likely scenario is:
EB5-China will receive a lot of FA from other Countries within EB5. EB5 will provide no Fall Up to EB1.
No Country in EB4 will use Fall Across within EB4. EB4 may provide some Fall Up to EB1.
EB1-China and EB1-India will use Fall Across within EB1 (they almost certainly are already doing so this FY, having already passed the 7% limit within EB1).
EB1 may provide some Fall Down to EB2.
EB2-ROW, EB2-M and possibly EB2-P will provide some Fall Across within EB2 to the most retrogressed Country (India).
EB2 will not provide any Fall Down to EB3.
EB3-ROW and EB3-M will provide some Fall Across within EB3 to the most retrogressed Country (India).
Last edited by Spectator; 03-24-2015 at 06:02 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec, Q and Suva,
Appreciate all your feedback.
Spec,
From what you wrote, the only SO to EB2I will be from EB2ROW, EB2M and EB2P. Is that correct? At this point in time, is it possible to narrow-down the SO numbers? I know you said 10k to 15k earlier. Does it look too much now?
Iatiam
when will be the April i-485 inventory be available to us publicly ?
Usually mid-May
The last 2 inventories were published about 5 weeks after the end of the quarter.
Around the first week of May, if it follows that trend.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
What's your forecast for EB3-I?
Last edited by Spectator; 04-07-2015 at 05:11 PM. Reason: Removed quote
I am getting tired of this pretending game.
Any guess how far EB3 I might move if it moves?
Thanks
Amul
I thought it was time for an EB3 post.
The questions above look deceptively simple - except they aren't.
The answer is obviously that it depends on how many visas are available for EB3-I.
That in turn depends on how many visas other Countries are going to use?
The problem is that it is not obvious what the answer is to the last question.
Let's take the Countries in turn.
EB3-China
They'll probably get extra due to under use in FB-China. Lets say they use an extra 500-600, similar to last year - so 3.5k
EB3-Mexico
I haven't got a clue. Let's say they also use about 3.5k.
EB3-Philippines
It's fairly clear EB3-P have already received about as many approvals as they will in the FY, due to the 7 year retrogression in May. EB3-P are bounded by hitting the overall 7% limit, so we're looking at 6-6.5k approvals for EB3-P.
EB3-India
Let's also assume that, initially, EB3-I also receive some extra numbers from FB and can use 3.5k without exceeding the 7% overall limit.
EB3-ROW
That leaves EB3-ROW allocation left within the overall EB3 limit as 41.4 - (3.5*3) - 6.5 = 24.4k (+ or - 1-2k)
So, the amount under 24.4k that EB3-ROW uses (assuming EB3 uses all numbers) would be available to add to the 3.5k EB-I number.
The Problems
Here's the problem. I don't think there is yet any good evidence of how many cases EB3-ROW (and EB3-M) have each month now.
Another problem is that EB3-ROW/M were retrogressed until December 2014 and with about 6/7 months processing time for an I-485 currently, those cases filed in December won't start to be approved in any numbers until May/June 2015.
The previous retrogression for 6 months is. IMO, why EB3-ROW approvals have been fairly low to date this FY. Maybe 6-7k have been approved to date. There also still appear to be quite a few older cases yet to be approved.
That gives gives 4/5 months of potentially higher EB3-ROW approvals (May/June-Sept). In the 4/5 months Dec 2014 to Mar/Apr 2015, the VB COD moved 17-23 months for EB3-ROW/M.
That means those cases can potentially be approved within the current FY.
At 30% of the ROW PERM, EB3-ROW would have about 800 cases per PD month allowing for some wastage. That translates to a potential 13.6 to 18.4k approvals towards the end of FY2015.
At the top end of all the calculations, that is actually enough to use all the available visas for EB3-ROW (7k + 18k = 25k vs 24.4k available).
At the bottom end EB3-I receive quite a healthy amount of FA and could receive at least as many (if not slightly more) than the approx 8k total received in FY2013.
800/month may be far too high a number.
My gut feel is that it will be near the top end, considering all factors and USCIS processing.
But, frankly, it's a guess. I've used some figures that might give the illusion of knowledge. That's not true - I'd rather call it an illustration by way of an example.
I do want people to understand that an increase in EB3-ROW approvals is expected - the volume is the unknown and therefore so is the scale of FA potentially available to EB3-I.
Finally, please feel free to think the above is a load of rubbish - it could well be. I do hope that it provides some points for you consider when you ponder the issue.
I'm sure I'll regret laying my thoughts out - so be it. People are rightly asking the question and not receiving a reply.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks for the analysis Spec !
--Another EB3-I soul ( May 2004 PD )
Thanks Spec.
Last edited by Spectator; 04-14-2015 at 05:02 PM. Reason: Removed huge quote to keep thread tidy.
One thing I didn't understand how EB3-P can use 6-6.5K in this FY. Shouldn't they be limited to 3K due to 7% limit?
thank you Spec.
So if we put all the pieces of info and analysis together, it looks like the CO cannot move the dates till last quarter/month to use up the spill-over/fall-across. So all in all we may see a 5k - 8k FA for EB3I this FY15.
So the EB3I dates in sept15 bulletin may jump anywhere to jun04 - Oct04.Again this is purely speculation take the info for wat its worth.
Last edited by Spectator; 04-14-2015 at 05:33 PM. Reason: Deleted quote to keep thread tidy. Fine to requote if original post is on another page
Spec! Thank you very much for your analysis.
2004 is a big mountain for EB3 I. If it is cleared I am hoping it will move LITTLE faster next FY. My PD is July 2006. Hoping to see it current by the end of next FY.
Amul
Suva,
That's because while it is convenient to think of the 7% limit as applying individually in each Category (i.e. 2,803 in EB3 in a normal year with no extra FB visas), it isn't.
CO interprets the law as 7% of the sum of FB and EB visas, so when that is 226,000 + 140,000 then 7% is 25,620.
Keeping it simple and considering EB only, that could be thought of as 7% of 140,000 or 9,800. That's basically the case for Philippines because they use their FB allocation.
EB-Philippines can therefore use a total of 9,800 visas within EB and still be considered within the 7% limit.
Philippines use relatively few visas in EB1, EB2, EB4 and EB5, so they can use quite a few in EB3 and still not breach the 7% limit.
As an example from FY2014 when 7% was calculated as 26,337 overall (and 10,517 derived from EB): (see the September 2014 VB)
Philippines
EB1 ----- 262
EB2 --- 1,972
EB3 --- 5,685
EB4 ----- 251
EB5 ------- 2
Total - 8,172
As you can see, despite using 5,685 visas in EB3, Philippines was well inside the prorated EB limit of 10,517. In fact, Philippines could have used a further 2,345 visas and still been within the 7% limit as interpreted.
South Korea received 11,786 EB visas in FY2014. Although that appears to be more than 7%, it is not, because the overall 7% limit was 26,337 and South Korea only used 1,511 FB visas for a grand Total of 13,297. They could have used another 13,040 and still stayed within 7% because of their incredibly low FB use.
Personally, I think the current interpretation is a bit crazy, but that is what it is.
Last edited by Spectator; 04-14-2015 at 05:31 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Amul,
I guess it is, given the Inventory shows the highest yearly number for 2004.
My eye is always drawn to March 2005 which contains over 40% of 2005 numbers. That doesn't appear to be a mistake, since it was echoed in the IVAMS data DOS released for the Chinese EB3 lawsuit.
I suspect it has something to do with PERM being introduced in 2005.
PS I'd like to stress that I don't consider my prior post as befitting the title of analysis. Unconnected ramblings would be a better description.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
gcq - i have a hunch .... this is going to be your year! For selfish reasons I hope you stay around this forum. But I will be glad if you are gone
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I'd completely echo your thoughts and sentiments.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Gurus,
Here are some calculations based on FY2013 & FY2014 usages vs Trackitt cases. Please see if it makes sense...
FY 2013 AOS+CP CP Trackitt Trackitt Total Visas Quota Total Visas Alloted* % EB3-I 416 3003 7816 206 5.32 EB3-C 13 2703 3229 1342 0.40 EB3-M 11 3003 3237 326 0.34 EB3-P 12 3003 5636 3547 0.21 EB3-ROW 276 31188 23822 3116 1.16 Totals 728 42900 43740 8537 1.66 *DOS FY 2014 AOS+CP CP Trackitt Trackitt Total Visas Quota Total Visas Alloted* % EB3-I 180 3003 3526 236 5.10 EB3-C 36 2703 3676 1273 0.98 EB3-M 11 3003 3738 231 0.29 EB3-P 19 3003 5685 2298 0.33 EB3-ROW 313 31188 26074 3050 1.20 Totals 559 42900 42699 7088 1.31 FY 2015 @ 4/14/2015 Estimated Estimated Trackitt Total Visas Quota Usage till Date Remaining EB3-I 72 2897 1410 1487 EB3-C 2 2597 204 2393 EB3-M 6 2897 2039 858 EB3-P 21 2897 6283 -3386 EB3-ROW 77 30105 6414 23691 Totals 178 41393 16351 25042
Q, Spec,gcq - i have a hunch .... this is going to be your year! For selfish reasons I hope you stay around this forum. But I will be glad if you are gone
May your words come true ! I am likely to stay in this forum. There is a lot to learn from this forum especially the way you guys predict VB movement. At one point I thought nobody could predict these with so much accuracy given the lack of data and so many unknowns. Lot to learn for sure.
When the whole world/numbers are pointing to EB3-I bullish movement this FY, why there is only 1 week movement for past several bulletins ?
Krishn:
I think OP is being way over over over cautious.
I don't even understand why he didn't make EB3 ROW current two month ago since EB3 ROW is technically current since the PD is now way forward than Perm and I140 processing time.
Can the 'AILA liaison' ask this question on EB3ROW/EB3I movement/spillover to DOS Visa office(r) /(Charlie Oppenheimer) ?
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