EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[soggadu]

My dear friends,

Thanks for everything that you do. Thanks for keeping me sane for the last couple of months. Freedom Express has arrived for me today.

My details:

TSC
PD:15 Feb 2007
EB2I
I-485 Filed on : 11 July 2007
I-485 Receipt Date: 10 Sept 2007

I buckled under pressure and opened an SR on 18 July 2011 10am. I did not talk to L2, actually I did not even try or ask for L2 officer.

Decision Email and SMS: 18 July 2011 9:50pm CST
Post Decision Email and SMS: 20 July 2011 10:15pm CST
Welcome Notice for spouse (derivative): 22 July 2011

Green Cards for both of us: 22 July 2011

Thanks again for everything. I accidentally stumbled upon this site a couple of months back. I forgot to bookmark. Searched in google for sometime before I entered names of the Gurus that I could remember. Reading all the pages ever since. I find the discussions on this site very engaging and informative. And I love the tone of the discussions.

I will still continue to read (now it has become an habit).

All the best for you all. Hope to see you all on board the Freedom Express soon!!! ;

Bam bam bholeeeeeeeeee... ho gaye GC waleeeeeeeeeeee.... congrats dude... hang around... dont leave...we need ur experience...

[Monica12]

My dear friends,

Thanks for everything that you do. Thanks for keeping me sane for the last couple of months. Freedom Express has arrived for me today.

My details:

TSC
PD:15 Feb 2007
EB2I
I-485 Filed on : 11 July 2007
I-485 Receipt Date: 10 Sept 2007

I buckled under pressure and opened an SR on 18 July 2011 10am. I did not talk to L2, actually I did not even try or ask for L2 officer.

Decision Email and SMS: 18 July 2011 9:50pm CST
Post Decision Email and SMS: 20 July 2011 10:15pm CST
Welcome Notice for spouse (derivative): 22 July 2011

Green Cards for both of us: 22 July 2011

Thanks again for everything. I accidentally stumbled upon this site a couple of months back. I forgot to bookmark. Searched in google for sometime before I entered names of the Gurus that I could remember. Reading all the pages ever since. I find the discussions on this site very engaging and informative. And I love the tone of the discussions.

I will still continue to read (now it has become an habit).

All the best for you all. Hope to see you all on board the Freedom Express soon!!! ;

Congrats bam bam and Amen to that.
Friends... I just noticed...200 pages of this incredible thread today. WOW !
A big thank you to the FAB 4 : Q,V, S, T and others. Also, a big thank you to the incredible friends I have made here

[Spectator]

Spec

do you mind sharing your exisintg calculations for expected 485 demand in fy2008,fy2009,fy2010,fy2011

bieber,

I think everyone uses different assumptions. On the ones I gave above, the figures of I-485 for each PD year were:

2007 still to file - 12,559
2008 - 23,359
2009 - 16,130
2010 - 16,134 (assumed that 5,000 PERM were Porting for previous PDs, although I haven't added those back anywhere - I probably should have done, since this leads to an underestimate)
2011 onwards - 16,000

On those assumptions, the total PERM number pretty much became the EB2 I-485 number, due to a quirk in the % used.

Please understand, the table is just a quick and dirty attempt to understand the timelines - don't over analyze it! For instance, it doesn't try to include any porting numbers.

I can plug in a different set of assumptions if you provide them:

i) PERM to I-140 approval rate (including any primary I-485 denial rate) i.e. 80% if you think 20% of PERM never make it to the primary's I-485 approval)
ii) No of I-485 per I-140 e.g. 2.1
iii) % EB2 e.g, 60%

[Spectator]

Aur isi prakar Qblog ka dohra shatak poora hua..bahut badhiya ballebaji
Xlation-This is it...Qblog completes a fine double ton.

Pdmar08,

I thought you were referring to Kevin Pietersen for a moment.

Bloody fine knock! (as the English might say)

Can the Little Master respond?

[veni001]

Veni,

Thanks for the numbers. Shouldn't the entire/complete number be of consequence for us at this point?.(for this year, not for next years sofad)
How would splitting the EB1 denials help? This question is out of curiosity to understand, not being smart pants here

Best!

PS:btw, I agree with moving the misc items to a different thread. I have contributed to those items as felt appropriate to answer the question first

leo07,
Our intention is to figure out how USCIS is distributing EB-VISAs based on the demand/completions and other factors. We may not be able to get exact picture but may get close to reality.
This way we can predict future allocations based on various data sources available now, instead of guessing.

EB1 Denials: Most of the EB1ROWMP denials will apply, if not already, in EB2. (In our calculations we are already accounting thins number based on PERM data.)

Again the main intent is not just for the month/quarter/year spillover calculations but, the overall picture so that it will be easy for us to help our future EB community.

[bieber]

bieber,

I think everyone uses different assumptions. On the ones I gave above, the figures of I-485 for each PD year were:

2007 still to file - 12,559
2008 - 23,359
2009 - 16,130
2010 - 16,134 (assumed that 5,000 PERM were Porting for previous PDs, although I haven't added those back anywhere - I probably should have done, since this leads to an underestimate)
2011 onwards - 16,000

On those assumptions, the total PERM number pretty much became the EB2 I-485 number, due to a quirk in the % used.

Please understand, the table is just a quick and dirty attempt to understand the timelines - don't over analyze it!

I can plug in a different set of assumptions if you provide them:

i) PERM to I-140 approval rate (including any primary I-485 denial rate) i.e. 80% if you think 20% of PERM never make it to the primary's I-485 approval)
ii) No of I-485 per I-140 e.g. 2.1
iii) % EB2 e.g, 60%

Spec, thanks

I will ask more questions later eventhough I remember your ealier calculation for EB2IC for CY2007 is 16k, could you please verify if it still stands true (not including any of the inventory)

[Spectator]

Spec, thanks

I will ask more questions later eventhough I remember your ealier calculation for EB2IC for CY2007 is 16k, could you please verify if it still stands true (not including any of the inventory)

bieber,

Close enough.

Using those assumptions for both I & C it comes out as 15,471. China's conversion rate is a little better, so the figure for both combined is a bit over 16k.

I'm away for a few days starting tomorrow, so no answers over the weekend.

[leo07]

He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

I read the original posts and this is my understanding.

To me this statement translates to :July 15th 2007 to August 1st 2007 movement in September VB.

fwiw, unlike TeddyK, Spec, Q, Veni and few others, I have built-in bias, no hiding there

btw, I just noticed we reached 200 pages

[yesman]

Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:

- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

[yesman]

Forgot to mention that my GC is filed under EB2 India with a PD of 04/04/2008.

Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:

- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

[gcseeker]

Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind ) might be able to provide.

1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.

2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.

3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..

P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.

I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....

Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.

Forgot to mention that my GC is filed under EB2 India with a PD of 04/04/2008.

[leo07]

Veni001, Thanks for the explanation!

leo07,
Our intention is to figure out how USCIS is distributing EB-VISAs based on the demand/completions and other factors. We may not be able to get exact picture but may get close to reality.
This way we can predict future allocations based on various data sources available now, instead of guessing.

EB1 Denials: Most of the EB1ROWMP denials will apply, if not already, in EB2. (In our calculations we are already accounting thins number based on PERM data.)

Again the main intent is not just for the month/quarter/year spillover calculations but, the overall picture so that it will be easy for us to help our future EB community.

[yesman]

gcseeker, Thanks for providing your take on my situation. The pain of going through this process with another employer is certainly something I'm not looking forward to. Although, my career could certainly use the change. Oct 2012 seems like it would be cutting it too close plus the fear of additional queries is always there. I decided to ask just so that that I can get different perspectives on the situation.

OTOH, I'm not sure when we get over all pre-adjudicated cases, if my PD would become current as part of next year's overflow (if it's the same amount as this year). I've read predictions where they say it'll move to Q1 2008 as part of next year's overflow. That's cutting it too close for me and dangerously close to slipping to 2013.

Your case seems more of no brainer though. I know you didn't ask for my opinion, but here it is anyway.. If I were you, I'd wait Good luck with your GC!

Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind ) might be able to provide.

1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.

2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.

3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..

P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.

I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....

Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.

[Spectator]

Spec ... are you aware Little MAster is "Sunil Gavaskar" not "Tendulkar".

Are you sure? It made me check.

I am happy to acknowledge that "Sunny" may have been the original Master, although I have never heard him referred to in that way. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Gavaskar

According to Wikipedia and many other searches, ST is the "Little Master" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sachin_Tendulkar and that is what I have known him as for most of his career.

Anyway, the match is all set up for him to produce another great innings, weather permitting of course.

PS I've seen both play - which probably shows my age.

[donvar]

- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

Tempted to reply as similar case here with 6 years in same company with PD Jan 2008.
Stick with it and see it through whatever it takes as it is just a year.

I expect my PD to be current around Feb 2012.

[mars76]

Hi All,

Lets say the Sep Bulletin moves the cutoff date to AUG 1st . Then when the new Fiscal Year starts from Oct Bulletin aren't the Dates supposed to move based on monthly allocation ?? (How ever small that allocation might be)..

I checked the last year's bulletins from Oct 2010 to May 2011 and the dates only moved in May's bulletin. I thought it's because of so much backlog. This time the backlog is not what we had in 2010..

Could some one pls respond why the Dates only moved in May or ( in third or last quarter as it did in the prior years..)

Thanks..

Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind ) might be able to provide.

1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.

2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.

3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..

P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.

I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....

Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.

[qesehmk]

LoL Spec you are letting your guard fall!! Disclosing the age and all

Well you are not alone. Me too have seen India - England matches w Gavaskar, Vishwanaath on Indian side and Tony Greg, Chapel bros, Geoffrey Boycott (OMG!). Albeit I was in my single digits then. But still that doesn;t make me look very young does it?

Anyway .... so to my recollection Gavaskar is original little master. I think Tendlya is Little Champ not Master. People in Mumbai consider him GOD. But that's another matter I just loved him when he debuted against Pakistan. Oh poor little Abdul Qadir almost came to tears. He plays well even today but I think its better he retire today when he is still doing good. Otherwise its painful to watch once great players struggling to keep up.

My personal opinion .... Sachin Fans dont jump on me. I am his fan too.

Are you sure? It made me check.

I am happy to acknowledge that "Sunny" may have been the original Master, although I have never heard him referred to in that way. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Gavaskar

According to Wikipedia and many other searches, ST is the "Little Master" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sachin_Tendulkar and that is what I have known him as for most of his career.

Anyway, the match is all set up for him to produce another great innings, weather permitting of course.

PS I've seen both play - which probably shows my age.

[Spectator]

Hi All,

Lets say the Sep Bulletin moves the cutoff date to AUG 1st . Then when the new Fiscal Year starts from Oct Bulletin aren't the Dates supposed to move based on monthly allocation ?? (How ever small that allocation might be)..

I checked the last year's bulletins from Oct 2010 to May 2011 and the dates only moved in May's bulletin. I thought it's because of so much backlog. This time the backlog is not what we had in 2010..

Could some one pls respond why the Dates only moved in May or ( in third or last quarter as it did in the prior years..)

Thanks..

mars76,

The generally accepted theory is that there were enough Porting cases with earlier PDs to consume the 250 or so visas available every month at the beginning of the year.

The dates only moved in May because it was announced that EB1 would provide at least 12k visas, otherwise they could not have moved until July.

At the beginning of FY2012, as well as any Porting cases, there are also likely to be an increasing number of PWMB and derivative cases becoming ready for adjudication.

I hope that at least partly answers your question.

[nishant2200]

Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:

- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

I would put chances of you being current and getting EAD as 90% for next year. I would put chances of you getting green card as 50% next year. This if you stick with same job.

When you join a new employer, most employers start GC after a year, except if it's a consulting company or a small company with less strict rules, or if during hiring, you get to convince them about your situation, sometimes even set in stone place bulge. Suppose you manage to convince to start after six months, they would need to go for a recruiting effort and advertising campaign for the GC job position. Then they would file PERM labor. I am assuming this in total will take 6 months. So suppose you leave in September 2011, then in September 2012 you would have an approved PERM. Now if in September 2012, your date, April 2008, is current, which is a 50-50 chance as per me (it would be 90% few months earlier in 2012 assuming CO is doing some BTM), you can file 140 and 485 concurrently, or just file 140. Now, suppose your 140 takes 4 months to approve, then in January 2013, at which time around (few months after), I am putting 90% chance you would be current (again), and could get 485 approved or be able to file. If you had filed 485 concurrently, you would get GC in late 2012, early 2013, if not, then late mid 2013.

If staying with current employer is making your life miserable, and if you are going to get new job in a non consulting company, which shall be able to prove ability to pay and will do a bonafide recruiting campaign, then leave. Else just stick around and get done with it. One more year, you should get EAD.

ps: LOTR quote to inspire: “The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail. But hope remains, if friends stay true.”

[qesehmk]

yesman it depends on how terrible your situation is. I would wait till October to see if BTM happens (refer first page of thread). If it doesn't then the only time it will reach April 2008 will be May 2012 onwards. Once you become current then you can switch jobs only 6 months after filing 485. So that a total of 1 yr from Oct 2011.

Your new employer may be able to process everything within 1 yr. But that's a risk. So its your call. ..how unhappy you are today vs r you willing to take risk w new employer. If everything goes fine ... timeline wise I don't think you will lose if you change jobs.

Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:

- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

[03May07]

Tempted to reply as similar case here with 6 years in same company with PD Jan 2008.
Stick with it and see it through whatever it takes as it is just a year.

I expect my PD to be current around Feb 2012.

While everyone is talking about 200th page on this thread, another important record passed by. donvar's post was #5000 and it happened on the 200th page. (This is significant in similar ways to Fletcher's 100th test as a coach in the 2000th International test match, which is a 100th test match between eng & India where there is an anticipation of Sachin scoring a 100th 100 in which Kevin got a 200 .....who in the world keeps track of coach's number of matches??)

Even I remember Little master to be SG.

Happy to see Spec getting involved in discussions(Indian cricket) other than crunching #'s. And because of this I'm guessing he's not Sangiano(whose profile says UK)

[gchopeful123]

Sep VB
One VB to rule them all, One VB to find them,
One VB to bring them all and in the darkness bind them

Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind ) might be able to provide.

1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.

2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.

3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..

P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.

I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....

Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.

[soggadu]

LoL Spec you are letting your guard fall!! Disclosing the age and all

Well you are not alone. Me too have seen India - England matches w Gavaskar, Vishwanaath on Indian side and Tony Greg, Chapel bros, Geoffrey Boycott (OMG!). Albeit I was in my single digits then. But still that doesn;t make me look very young does it?

Anyway .... so to my recollection Gavaskar is original little master. I think Tendlya is Little Champ not Master. People in Mumbai consider him GOD. But that's another matter I just loved him when he debuted against Pakistan. Oh poor little Abdul Qadir almost came to tears. He plays well even today but I think its better he retire today when he is still doing good. Otherwise its painful to watch once great players struggling to keep up.

My personal opinion .... Sachin Fans dont jump on me. I am his fan too.

Q and S.... Sachin is more popularly called S master blaster by commentators....

[nishant2200]

2 more weeks to go. Does anyone know if historically DOS puts in demand data before Sep VB.

[soggadu]

2 more weeks to go. Does anyone know if historically DOS puts in demand data before Sep VB.

Nishant bhai.... You want a trailer before the movie release then hmm...