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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #4776
    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    Based on my understanding, Mr.Co said 7k will be applied to EB2 China/India.

    He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

    I read the original posts and this is my understanding.
    Jr.Q bhai(bro)...Awesome, we would be looking at least Aug 01 2007 in Sep then... don't know how to bless in Chinese...but b blessed for all the info you bring to us....

  2. #4777
    cmon Soggadu. please add 6 more days and says Aug07 in sep.. atleast i will remember this post and enjoy my weekend.

  3. #4778
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    How Long Will It Take For EB2-I To REALLY Become Current?

    Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

    It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

    a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
    b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
    c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
    d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

    Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

    As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

    Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

    The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

    EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

    Av.
    EB2-I ------- When
    SOFAD ------- Current

    16,000 ------ Never
    17,000 ------ FY2096
    18,000 ------ FY2054
    19,000 ------ FY2040
    20,000 ------ FY2033
    21,000 ------ FY2028
    22,000 ------ FY2026
    23,000 ------ FY2024
    24,000 ------ FY2022
    25,000 ------ FY2021
    26,000 ------ FY2020
    27,000 ------ FY2019
    28,000 ------ FY2019
    29,000 ------ FY2018
    30,000 ------ FY2018
    31,000 ------ FY2017
    32,000 ------ FY2017
    33,000 ------ FY2016
    34,000 ------ FY2016
    35,000 ------ FY2016


    Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

    You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

    I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.
    Last edited by Spectator; 07-22-2011 at 03:04 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  4. #4779
    Quote Originally Posted by indiaeb2 View Post
    cmon Soggadu. please add 6 more days and says Aug07 in sep.. atleast i will remember this post and enjoy my weekend.
    i added "atleast" .... think about it...if they reach Aug 01 by next month...where wud they go in oct...tadaaaaaa... > Aug 06...
    Last edited by soggadu; 07-22-2011 at 03:03 PM.

  5. #4780
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

    It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

    a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
    b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
    c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
    d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

    Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

    As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

    Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

    The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

    EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

    Av.
    EB2-I ------- When
    SOFAD ------- Current

    16,000 ------ Never
    17,000 ------ FY2096
    18,000 ------ FY2054
    19,000 ------ FY2040
    20,000 ------ FY2033
    21,000 ------ FY2028
    22,000 ------ FY2026
    23,000 ------ FY2024
    24,000 ------ FY2022
    25,000 ------ FY2021
    26,000 ------ FY2020
    27,000 ------ FY2019
    28,000 ------ FY2019
    29,000 ------ FY2018
    30,000 ------ FY2018
    31,000 ------ FY2017
    32,000 ------ FY2017
    33,000 ------ FY2016
    34,000 ------ FY2016
    35,000 ------ FY2016


    Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

    You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

    I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade.
    You are so very amazing...thanks a ton for these numbers...

  6. #4781

    Excellent...

    Since you already have numbers in Excel sheet, you can add one more column that indicates , when a given EB2I PD could get out of the system, keeping the 16k intake/year constant.
    It's averaging about 4.5 years now, but that page would help lot of people.
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

    It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

    a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
    b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
    c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
    d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

    Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

    As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

    Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

    The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

    EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

    Av.
    EB2-I ------- When
    SOFAD ------- Current

    16,000 ------ Never
    17,000 ------ FY2096
    18,000 ------ FY2054
    19,000 ------ FY2040
    20,000 ------ FY2033
    21,000 ------ FY2028
    22,000 ------ FY2026
    23,000 ------ FY2024
    24,000 ------ FY2022
    25,000 ------ FY2021
    26,000 ------ FY2020
    27,000 ------ FY2019
    28,000 ------ FY2019
    29,000 ------ FY2018
    30,000 ------ FY2018
    31,000 ------ FY2017
    32,000 ------ FY2017
    33,000 ------ FY2016
    34,000 ------ FY2016
    35,000 ------ FY2016


    Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

    You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

    I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

  7. #4782
    I did my renewal with US Address for both current and permanent

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    In few hours, I will be in office. I have my passport app saved as pdf. I will see n let u know. I wud like to say US address for current n India for permanent. Will confirm.

  8. #4783
    It is very interesting analysis.

    Great work!

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

    It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

    a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
    b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
    c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
    d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

    Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

    As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

    Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

    The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

    EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

    Av.
    EB2-I ------- When
    SOFAD ------- Current

    16,000 ------ Never
    17,000 ------ FY2096
    18,000 ------ FY2054
    19,000 ------ FY2040
    20,000 ------ FY2033
    21,000 ------ FY2028
    22,000 ------ FY2026
    23,000 ------ FY2024
    24,000 ------ FY2022
    25,000 ------ FY2021
    26,000 ------ FY2020
    27,000 ------ FY2019
    28,000 ------ FY2019
    29,000 ------ FY2018
    30,000 ------ FY2018
    31,000 ------ FY2017
    32,000 ------ FY2017
    33,000 ------ FY2016
    34,000 ------ FY2016
    35,000 ------ FY2016


    Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

    You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

    I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

  9. #4784
    Wow! Great work. I wonder what it would be for EB3.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

    It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

    a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
    b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
    c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
    d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

    Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

    As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

    Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

    The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

    EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

    Av.
    EB2-I ------- When
    SOFAD ------- Current

    16,000 ------ Never
    17,000 ------ FY2096
    18,000 ------ FY2054
    19,000 ------ FY2040
    20,000 ------ FY2033
    21,000 ------ FY2028
    22,000 ------ FY2026
    23,000 ------ FY2024
    24,000 ------ FY2022
    25,000 ------ FY2021
    26,000 ------ FY2020
    27,000 ------ FY2019
    28,000 ------ FY2019
    29,000 ------ FY2018
    30,000 ------ FY2018
    31,000 ------ FY2017
    32,000 ------ FY2017
    33,000 ------ FY2016
    34,000 ------ FY2016
    35,000 ------ FY2016


    Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

    You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

    I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

  10. #4785
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    313
    great work Spec. I am going to be current in 2015, so let me take a nap. ;-)

  11. #4786
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    http://wws.princeton.edu/research/pw.../591d_2010.pdf just in case we need a break from regular activities...
    dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.

  12. #4787
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.
    yes...thanks to sum guy on trackitt... this shows how badly US needs to amend the current immigration laws...

  13. #4788
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    great work Spec. I am going to be current in 2015, so let me take a nap. ;-)
    nap wont work murthy garu.... go into hibernation....

  14. #4789
    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    Based on my understanding, Mr.Co said 7k will be applied to EB2 China/India.

    He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

    I read the original posts and this is my understanding.
    feel like crying, banging my head. man if only the number was not slightly lower than the demand left, but a bit higher, if only FB had given something. or maybe just being within reach of certain percentage is enough for CO to go for a BTM. Or maybe he will be cautious and let this new intake (PWMBs, dependents, porting, few pre-adj which maybe/will be left out in FY 2011) play its course out for the first 6 months of FY 2012.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 07-22-2011 at 04:05 PM.

  15. #4790
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    313
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    nap wont work murthy garu.... go into hibernation....
    nap because I need to wake up and keep reading Q's blog.

  16. #4791
    Spec

    do you mind sharing your exisintg calculations for expected 485 demand in fy2008,fy2009,fy2010,fy2011

  17. #4792
    I have heard rumors that CO refers to this blog to validate his numbers...sort of peer review

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.

  18. #4793
    Aur isi prakar Qblog ka dohra shatak poora hua..bahut badhiya ballebaji
    Xlation-This is it...Qblog completes a fine double ton.

  19. #4794

    soggadu rocks

    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    i added "atleast" .... think about it...if they reach Aug 01 by next month...where wud they go in oct...tadaaaaaa... > Aug 06...
    I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

    I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..

  20. #4795
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadufan View Post
    I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

    I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..
    thank you dost...i am flattered... dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)

  21. #4796
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadufan View Post
    I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

    I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..
    OMG! Soggadu... buddy !!! I'm so glad .... YIPPPPPPEEEEEE!!!!!!!

  22. #4797
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    thank you dost...i am flattered... Dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)
    lol!!!!!!!!

  23. #4798
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    thank you dost...i am flattered... dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)
    hahahaha. "he" not "she"

  24. #4799

    Freedom Express!!!

    My dear friends,

    Thanks for everything that you do. Thanks for keeping me sane for the last couple of months. Freedom Express has arrived for me today.

    My details:

    TSC
    PD:15 Feb 2007
    EB2I
    I-485 Filed on : 11 July 2007
    I-485 Receipt Date: 10 Sept 2007

    I buckled under pressure and opened an SR on 18 July 2011 10am. I did not talk to L2, actually I did not even try or ask for L2 officer.

    Decision Email and SMS: 18 July 2011 9:50pm CST
    Post Decision Email and SMS: 20 July 2011 10:15pm CST
    Welcome Notice for spouse (derivative): 22 July 2011

    Green Cards for both of us: 22 July 2011

    Thanks again for everything. I accidentally stumbled upon this site a couple of months back. I forgot to bookmark. Searched in google for sometime before I entered names of the Gurus that I could remember. Reading all the pages ever since. I find the discussions on this site very engaging and informative. And I love the tone of the discussions.

    I will still continue to read (now it has become an habit).

    All the best for you all. Hope to see you all on board the Freedom Express soon!!! ;
    Last edited by BamBam; 07-22-2011 at 04:46 PM. Reason: forgot to mention EB2I

  25. #4800
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadufan View Post
    hahahaha. "he" not "she"
    damn itt.... kya kami thi meere laddu mein (last time prashad chadaya tha na)... why god why...

    Jokes apart...thanks for your appreciation....have fun...this is a nice forum... people tolerate me... have any questions, shoot them... fab 4 r always there for us...

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