EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Monica12]

On a lighter note, one thing that I failed to understand was the followup post:
(Google Translation was)..." The focus seems to be to persuade the British to establish the heart of his pants to make chopsticks to deposit. Otherwise he will drag on, big Bright waves boiling SO next year. "

Obviously our Chinese friends don't seem to be too happy with CO and there's some slang involved there LOL

LOL!!! Leo, that is hilarious ! It's so funny what comes up in google translation

[leo07]

yeah, it is hilarious. I'm just as much interested to get the second post translated as the first one, by our very own qblogfan

LOL!!! Leo, that is hilarious ! It's so funny what comes up in google translation

[Spectator]

On a lighter note, one thing that I failed to understand was the followup post:
(Google Translation was)..." The focus seems to be to persuade the British to establish the heart of his pants to make chopsticks to deposit. Otherwise he will drag on, big Bright waves boiling SO next year. "

Obviously our Chinese friends don't seem to be too happy with CO and there's some slang involved there LOL

Leo,

That's funny.

In my translation, CO is often referred to as the "Austrian".

As best I could work out, 19k is the theoretical figure (for August/September) "First, he said 19,000 of the remaining completely inaccurate, because of their monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more".

However, CO is worried about the usage he has seen in June other than EB2-IC "EB1 Has increased in June".

Also, the "monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more" seems to suggest greater usage than expected?

At the moment, he has determined there might be less than 7k available to EB2 in September (it isn't clear whether that is all EB2 or just EB2-IC) "So, he scheduled in September that is used to determine the actual EB2 remaining places will be less than 7000.".

I think the pictogram type languages just don't lend themselves very well to machine translation to a letter based grammar and sentence construction. It needs a fluent speaker of both to do so.

[soggadu]

Qblogfan where art thou .... The translators are putting hearts in the pants... Come here soon And provide the translation... Save your language....

[qblogfan]

I agree with Spec and his translation is good.

I think Mr.CO always changes his mind in the last minute and all these communications only reflect his current thinking. Nobody really knows what he will do in the next VB.

Leo,

That's funny.

In my translation, CO is often referred to as the "Austrian".

As best I could work out, 19k is the theoretical figure (for August/September) "First, he said 19,000 of the remaining completely inaccurate, because of their monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more".

However, CO is worried about the usage he has seen in June other than EB2-IC "EB1 Has increased in June".

Also, the "monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more" seems to suggest greater usage than expected?

At the moment, he has determined there might be less than 7k available to EB2 in September (it isn't clear whether that is all EB2 or just EB2-IC) "So, he scheduled in September that is used to determine the actual EB2 remaining places will be less than 7000.".

I think the pictogram type languages just don't lend themselves very well to machine translation to a letter based grammar and sentence construction. It needs a fluent speaker of both to do so.

[goforgreen]

Qblogfan where art thou .... The translators are putting hearts in the pants... Come here soon And provide the translation... Save your language....

Soggadu ... you are so funny.

[leo07]

That's all

We were hoping you'd translate everything for us, including the jokes

Thanks for confirmation, btw.

Ok, jokes apart. If we assume < 7k to be 6000 visas then according to Spec's table it must reach July 15th 2007 at least? ("15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750")

I agree with Spec and his translation is good.

I think Mr.CO always changes his mind in the last minute and all these communications only reflect his current thinking. Nobody really knows what he will do in the next VB.

[Spectator]

That's all

We were hoping you'd translate everything for us, including the jokes

Thanks for confirmation, btw.

Ok, jokes apart. If we assume < 7k to be 6000 visas then according to Spec's table it must reach July 15th 2007 at least? ("15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750")

Leo,

That would depend whether the < 7k only has to cover EB2-IC or all of EB2. That part was not clear.

[nishant2200]

That's all

We were hoping you'd translate everything for us, including the jokes

Thanks for confirmation, btw.

Ok, jokes apart. If we assume < 7k to be 6000 visas then according to Spec's table it must reach July 15th 2007 at least? ("15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750")

Leo, I think at this point, I feel anything can happen. 7K is for EB2 I/C, EB2 entire .... who knows. Also 7k left is a projection by him based on what he thinks EB1 will also gobble up from the overall, what if that deviates a lot. It's all in flux, and will boil down to numbers which CO crunches until the last day before VB. This is the crucial one, he has to try to ensure no visas are wasted, as well as they are allocated fairly. And this time he has the flexibility of a pre-adjudicated buffer to play around with, which might be the last FY to have so.

[leo07]

Hi Nishanth,

IMHO, for the month of September, there is no difference between EB2IC & EB2ROW. They are just raw visa numbers, whichever visa-processor gets their hand on the visa number first, will hold the visa to that application. Only thing we can assume and that can throw us off is any sudden rise of approve-able EB2ROW and EB1 cases. 140 approval surge( &485 apps) in last 30 days, is unlikely to create such rise. For Eb2ROW or Eb1 to throw any monkey wrench in September bulletin, 140 approval( &485 apps) surge must have happened in April-May-June months. July-August surge is unlikely to grab visa numbers this year.

Leo, I think at this point, I feel anything can happen. 7K is for EB2 I/C, EB2 entire .... who knows. Also 7k left is a projection by him based on what he thinks EB1 will also gobble up from the overall, what if that deviates a lot. It's all in flux, and will boil down to numbers which CO crunches until the last day before VB. This is the crucial one, he has to try to ensure no visas are wasted, as well as they are allocated fairly. And this time he has the flexibility of a pre-adjudicated buffer to play around with, which might be the last FY to have so.

[iamdeb]

Sorry for diverting from the topic again.

Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.

1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.

Thanks in advance.

Deb

[nishant2200]

Hi Nishanth,

IMHO, for the month of September, there is no difference between EB2IC & EB2ROW. They are just raw visa numbers, whichever visa-processor gets their hand on the visa number first, will hold the visa to that application. Only thing we can assume and that can throw us off is any sudden rise of approve-able EB2ROW and EB1 cases. 140 approval surge( &485 apps) in last 30 days, is unlikely to create such rise. For Eb2ROW or Eb1 to throw any monkey wrench in September bulletin, 140 approval( &485 apps) surge must have happened in April-May-June months. July-August surge is unlikely to grab visa numbers this year.

Leo, thanks for the explanation. It makes sense to me what you are saying.

[nishant2200]

Sorry for diverting from the topic again.

Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.

1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.

Thanks in advance.

Deb

This is from my own experience:

1. Notaries have a cover sheet facility, where in, on cover sheet, they write down what documents beneath they are notarizing, and on the main cover sheet, they put down the main stamp and much more details, while on the actual document copies, the simple stamp. This way you save money, one notary fee, instead of a fee per document. You can get notarized at local UPS store, or even many companies Human Resource department. I am pretty sure you can even google and find out.

2. You need not send I-94. I did not.

[superdesi2100]

Sorry for diverting from the topic again.

Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.

1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.

Thanks in advance.

Deb

I just renewed my wife's passport. You can go to local AAA office or your bank - they have a notary in the office. I did remove I-94 stapled in the passport before sending the latter for renewal. I also wrote a letter asking them to send the original passport back along with the new one.

[leo07]

Any post office or UPS will have a certified notary that can notarize, for a small fee of course.
Yes, you will have to un-staple I-94(white card ) off your passport and staple( clip) it to new one.
I-94 is a bond between you & US. Passport is b/n you and your home-country

Sorry for diverting from the topic again.

Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.

1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.

Thanks in advance.

Deb

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Nishanth,

IMHO, for the month of September, there is no difference between EB2IC & EB2ROW. They are just raw visa numbers, whichever visa-processor gets their hand on the visa number first, will hold the visa to that application. Only thing we can assume and that can throw us off is any sudden rise of approve-able EB2ROW and EB1 cases. 140 approval surge( &485 apps) in last 30 days, is unlikely to create such rise. For Eb2ROW or Eb1 to throw any monkey wrench in September bulletin, 140 approval( &485 apps) surge must have happened in April-May-June months. July-August surge is unlikely to grab visa numbers this year.

Leo the Jul - Aug surge in I140 will grab visa numbers for all concurrently filed cases for EB2 ROW and EB1, IMHO around 50%of these cases are filed concurrently, so for I/C SOFAD this is peaking at a slightly inopportune time, it may pull down this year’s SOFAD and make it increase next year. CO will have to do a real last minute estimation / guesstimation, the EB2 I/C cases will be governed by the set PD. The EB2 ROW and EB1 cases can provide the buffer to CO to close the deal. For all concurrently filed cases the 485 review process happens pretty much in parallel and FP happens within 1.5 months so as soon as 140 is approved these cases are also as good as preadjudicated.

[leo07]

I see your point. I also agree with your point that most of these cases are concurrently filed. I would think more than 90% of these ROW cases would be concurrently filed, there is no reason for them not to file concurrent for a EB petition. However, my only hanging-thread of assumption is that it is not possible for a case to move from 140-approved status to Documentarily-qualified for Visa ( or Pre-Adj) status in 30-60 days.

If someone were to tell me that these two processes are parallel, while 140 gets approved, CIS simultaneously works on preparing the ground for 485 on the same app, my assumption falls totally apart.

[nishant2200]

I see your point. I also agree with your point that most of these cases are concurrently filed. I would think more than 90% of these ROW cases would be concurrently filed, there is no reason for them not to file concurrent for a EB petition. However, my only hanging-thread of assumption is that it is not possible for a case to move from 140-approved status to Documentarily-qualified for Visa ( or Pre-Adj) status in 30-60 days.

If someone were to tell me that these two processes are parallel, while 140 gets approved, CIS simultaneously works on preparing the ground for 485 on the same app, my assumption falls totally apart.

I found this link on OH law firm website:
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-...02-19249-filed
which basically is about some memo long back in 2002 which led to the allowing of concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485. I have not read every detail, but if you see summary, the primary reason being listed for doing so is:

The current Immigration and Naturalization Service (Service)
regulations provide that an alien worker who wants to apply for
permanent resident by filing the appropriate Form I-485, Application to
Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, cannot do so until he or
she obtains approval of the underlying petition, Form I-140, Immigrant
Petition for Alien Worker. This procedure has resulted in an
unnecessary delay for certain alien workers. This interim rule amends
the Service's regulations by allowing the Form I-485 to be filed
concurrently when a visa is immediately available, thereby improving
the efficiency of the process as well as customer service.

To me this indicates, that they do simultaneously work on preparing the 485, since the basic premise of allowing concurrent filing was to reduce delay.

And next notice the line in Bold, this thing kills us.

[leo07]

Good find, I lost my battle more than half

The only defense is trackitt data for past 6 months, average time b/n 140 approval & 485 approval for ROW concurrent is:72.85 days. ( I excluded anything larger than 200 days and 0s and 1 day processing times)

Now, I'm back to square one, at the mercy of CO

Thanks Nishanth and Teddy for your comments.

I found this link on OH law firm website:
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-...02-19249-filed
which basically is about some memo long back in 2002 which led to the allowing of concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485. I have not read every detail, but if you see summary, the primary reason being listed for doing so is:

The current Immigration and Naturalization Service (Service)
regulations provide that an alien worker who wants to apply for
permanent resident by filing the appropriate Form I-485, Application to
Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, cannot do so until he or
she obtains approval of the underlying petition, Form I-140, Immigrant
Petition for Alien Worker. This procedure has resulted in an
unnecessary delay for certain alien workers. This interim rule amends
the Service's regulations by allowing the Form I-485 to be filed
concurrently when a visa is immediately available, thereby improving
the efficiency of the process as well as customer service.

To me this indicates, that they do simultaneously work on preparing the 485, since the basic premise of allowing concurrent filing was to reduce delay.

And next notice the line in Bold, this thing kills us.

[sai999]

Good find, I lost my battle more than half

The only defense is trackitt data for past 6 months, average time b/n 140 approval & 485 approval for ROW concurrent is:72.85 days. ( I excluded anything larger than 200 days and 0s and 1 day processing times)

Now, I'm back to square one, at the mercy of CO

Thanks Nishanth and Teddy for your comments.

Hi Leo please don't disappoint about the visa moment , I know how much hard work you are doing on the analysis and other activities and I am big fan of this forum and I just registered and posting a first post.

My humble bow to Q, Spec, Leo,T and other great guru's .Please don’t loose the hope on moment ,if not today, tomorrow or some day we will reach our destiny.

My personal thanks all great gurus in this forum for number crunching and moment prediction.

Nishanth as you mentioned in earlier post your wife and daughter complain about spending most of the time in Q’s forum this is what exactly happing in my home also…

[neospeed]

Good find, I lost my battle more than half

The only defense is trackitt data for past 6 months, average time b/n 140 approval & 485 approval for ROW concurrent is:72.85 days. ( I excluded anything larger than 200 days and 0s and 1 day processing times)

Now, I'm back to square one, at the mercy of CO

Thanks Nishanth and Teddy for your comments.

Leo good point about trakitt data. Here is the shortest approval i saw so far:

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigrat.../i485-eb/22257

concurrently filed one with I-140 premium, I-140 and I-485 approval gap is approx 2 months.

[iamdeb]

Any post office or UPS will have a certified notary that can notarize, for a small fee of course.
Yes, you will have to un-staple I-94(white card ) off your passport and staple( clip) it to new one.
I-94 is a bond between you & US. Passport is b/n you and your home-country

Thank you all for the advice.
One more question on it.

In the application form which address shall I fill for Address to be Printed in Passport?
Will it be my Indian home address or the current US Address?
Pertaining to the same section, what will be the Other Address?
I am confused about the address issue.

Appreciate all your help.

Deb

[myfr66]

FYI. Key info made available by the mitbbs:
1) 7K is for EB2 (not EB2IC) Sept
2) EB2IC cut-off date will proceed steadily
3) EB2 waiting time (pd-current) will be less than 4-1/2 years

[qesehmk]

Guys .. I have been away a bit and haven't been able to read a lot of the things. But let me point out a simple thing:

If EB2 Sep Quota is 7K then why is it such a bad news? At 28.7% of 19K one would expect Sep+Aug EB2 quota at ~5-6K. So Sep quota would've been ~3K. So ~7K should beconsidered a good news if true.

On the other hand 7K for Sept alone is a great thing - if true. To be honest... predictions stuff works better at a macro level. I wouldn't dare to try to calculate and predict for a single month and so it might be a better idea to apply common sense to Sep situation. The fact is - in the past, DoS has made movement in Sept. The fact is - DoS seems to be determined to clear backlog. The fact is - EB1 is clogged due to Kazarian. The fact is - CO has expressed cautious interest in getting in new cases. So more than likely, there could be a decent couple of months movement in Sept coupled with a BTM in Sept or Oct.

Its a general principle that at a micro level the noise kills any ability to predict. So a single EB1/EB2ROW wave of applications could easily wipe out the entire SOFAD. Will it happen? Most likely not. As I said the likelihood of a couple of months movement remains strong and all we need to do is wait and watch. Good luck!

[nishant2200]

sai999, here I am again. 4.50 AM PST.

Q just put a wonderful summary.

N thanks for ur post, welcome!

Hi Leo please don't disappoint about the visa moment , I know how much hard work you are doing on the analysis and other activities and I am big fan of this forum and I just registered and posting a first post.

My humble bow to Q, Spec, Leo,T and other great guru's .Please don’t loose the hope on moment ,if not today, tomorrow or some day we will reach our destiny.

My personal thanks all great gurus in this forum for number crunching and moment prediction.

Nishanth as you mentioned in earlier post your wife and daughter complain about spending most of the time in Q’s forum this is what exactly happing in my home also…