Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[gs1968]

Dependent counting is the tougher one - legally speaking. Recapture is on sounder legal footing. As far as we are concerned - both/either work. Dependent counting will be a more long term solution - but both will provide immediate relief. At least legal immigration is being included in the discussions. My fear has been that there wouldn't be anything other than EAD for H4 in the EO for legal immigration.

Not if NumbersUSA is to be believed!!

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/f...0Recapture.pdf

The irony is that legislation involving visa recapture generally enjoys bipartisan support.Most of the standalone legislation in both senate and house have had Democrat and Republican co-sponsors.Lofgren-Sensenbrenner comes to mind.Visa recapture also appeals to the American sense of fair play in that the delays in green cards may be secondary to processing delays and applicants should not be punished if visa numbers go wasted. If this was part of EO Congress may not get too excited but judicial challenges will definitely come from organizations as above and may even have a chance to succeed. There is legislative pcedence in Congress acting to retrieve these visas in the form of standalone legislation ( AC21)

[gten20]

I have not come across any discussion of recapture of H1B visa numbers. Only recapture with H1B is that of time spent outside the country - which you can do right now. Any recapture talk regarding visa numbers has happened only in the GC context IIRC. Have I missed something? Any links to the contrary will be appreciated.

While I hope its GC visas recapture, the article does sound like its for H1B as it says "make visas available to such Companies". Obama did say he was going to expand H1B rules in his speech few weeks ago and some H1B visas do get wasted because of declines.

[idiotic]

I have not come across any discussion of recapture of H1B visa numbers. Only recapture with H1B is that of time spent outside the country - which you can do right now. Any recapture talk regarding visa numbers has happened only in the GC context IIRC. Have I missed something? Any links to the contrary will be appreciated.

imdeng,

There are many links for this. I could only get this now quickly. Please see page 10.

http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2....Sept-2014.pdf

"Recovery of H-1B petitions or employment-based green cards not issued in previous fiscal years would be of
significant help to employers and skilled foreign nationals waiting in backlogs due to low quotas. It would likely
make available an additional 300,000 H-1B visas (unused below H-1B cap since FY 1992) and 200,000 to
250,000 employment-based green cards."

[anuprab]

http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/o...le3499782.html

[devi_pd]

http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/o...le3499782.html

Most of the articles online are indicating that either the recapture or not counting dependents is highly probable. If one these happens, we won't have EB backlogs for a very long time.

[imdeng]

Recent polls suggest that Latinos are disappointed with Dems and the Dem advantage with them may be eroding. That makes an EO more likely to make them move back to Dems before 2016. The dreamer DACA was well timed for 2012 election. An expanded form of DACA is likely to happen for 2016. And if EO is happening then it is likely that it will have *something* for legal immigration so as to attract business support.

That *something* can be whatever: from just H4 EAD to Recapture and/or Dependent Counting. Articles like the Miami Herald linked below is important to build momentum and consensus. I am encouraged to see them appear in popular press.

[sportsfan33]

My honest $0.02.

The Republicans are socking it to the Dems. It's a huge loss for the Dems across the border. Anything drastic from BO will only make matters worse and they will even lose the WH in 2016.

Do not expect anything game changing in the coming days.

[gcq]

Now that GOP controls both house and senate, does President have any excuse for executive orders now ? Earlier he could say it is a do nothing congress so he has to do EO. Now congress will deliver items to his table though he wont like most of them. However he can act in lame duck session before next congress comes into power.

[kkruna]

Now that GOP controls both house and senate, does President have any excuse for executive orders now ? Earlier he could say it is a do nothing congress so he has to do EO. Now congress will deliver items to his table though he wont like most of them. However he can act in lame duck session before next congress comes into power.

Politically, he has to set the agenda rather than work on backfoot. If he doesn't act Republicans will set the agenda for him. So, it would be better to strike calculated offensive positions and use them as bargaining chips and try influence what agenda Republicans set for him.

Not sure he will go that way. It all depends on if he and key people on Republican side (who are they? Tea party believes they command majority!) can work together.

If Republicans get to the point of sending bills - it would be border security first followed by High Skill Immigration. So, if anything, the situation should be better for us.

But here is the main problem: there are enough presidential hopefuls to poison the well (to borrow Republican phrase) for any action that would be intended or moved (except for border security).

[kkruna]

The Maths for WH is different. Both parties obviously know it. However, Republican have this issue of getting nomination approvals from Tea Party so they will sing a different and calibrated tune.

[PD2008AUG25]

Now that GOP controls both house and senate, does President have any excuse for executive orders now ? Earlier he could say it is a do nothing congress so he has to do EO. Now congress will deliver items to his table though he wont like most of them. However he can act in lame duck session before next congress comes into power.

As Sports said above, he will do something moderate. For documented immigrants, even a small measure can be very helpful. Either of visa recapture or dependent count would be enough to clear backlog.

I totally expect Republicans to feign new interest in passing an immigration bill if only to prevent Obama's EO.

[qesehmk]

Sports - on a different note - this loss means in 2016 dems will win the WH - hands down. GOP will do nothing even though they have control of the senate and congress and the public is going to say enough is enough.

As far as EO is concerned ... if Obama acts now - the GOP will cry foul and say the president is ignoring the mandate. I hope he does something now. Other than EO 2015 doesn't look like a very good year.

My honest $0.02.

The Republicans are socking it to the Dems. It's a huge loss for the Dems across the border. Anything drastic from BO will only make matters worse and they will even lose the WH in 2016.

Do not expect anything game changing in the coming days.

[gcq]

Sports - on a different note - this loss means in 2016 dems will win the WH - hands down. GOP will do nothing even though they have control of the senate and congress and the public is going to say enough is enough.

As far as EO is concerned ... if Obama acts now - the GOP will cry foul and say the president is ignoring the mandate. I hope he does something now. Other than EO 2015 doesn't look like a very good year.

I am thinking WH may go GOP way in 2016 as GOP controls congress completely now. Both House and Senate will pass bills that Pres won't like to sign. He will veto them. Then GOP will cry foul. This will go on for 2 years when people will think Obama/Democrats is causing the gridlock and vote GOP.

[qesehmk]

interesting ... how we think the same way but our conclusion is different!! I think people will see the gridlock and then vote for hillary.

I am thinking WH may go GOP way in 2016 as GOP controls congress completely now. Both House and Senate will pass bills that Pres won't like to sign. He will veto them. Then GOP will cry foul. This will go on for 2 years when people will think Obama/Democrats is causing the gridlock and vote GOP.

[ROCK72]

[I][I]

Not if NumbersUSA is to be believed!!

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/f...0Recapture.pdf

The irony is that legislation involving visa recapture generally enjoys bipartisan support.Most of the standalone legislation in both senate and house have had Democrat and Republican co-sponsors.Lofgren-Sensenbrenner comes to mind.Visa recapture also appeals to the American sense of fair play in that the delays in green cards may be secondary to processing delays and applicants should not be punished if visa numbers go wasted. If this was part of EO Congress may not get too excited but judicial challenges will definitely come from organizations as above and may even have a chance to succeed. There is legislative pcedence in Congress acting to retrieve these visas in the form of standalone legislation ( AC21)

That is not correct. I dug up all the EB based visas since FY1991. This shows a possible PD recapture amount of 206.9 K. visas.

S.No FY EB TOTAL QUOTA Delta
1 1991 59,525 140,000 -80,475
2 1992 116,198 140,000 -23,802
3 1993 147,012 140,000 7,012
4 1994 123,291 140,000 -16,709
5 1995 85,336 140,000 -54,664
6 1996 117,499 140,000 -22,501
7 1997 90,607 140,000 -49,393
8 1998 77,517 140,000 -62,483
9 1999 56,817 140,000 -83,183
10 2000 111,166 140,000 -28,834
11 2001 186,536 140,000 46,536
12 2002 171,583 140,000 31,583
13 2003 83,020 140,000 -56,980
14 2004 157,107 140,000 17,107
15 2005 242,335 140,000 102,335
16 2006 133,622 140,000 -6,378
17 2007 154,460 140,000 14,460
18 2008 162,949 140,000 22,949
19 2009 140,987 140,000 987
20 2010 150,262 140,000 10,262
21 2011 139,302 140,000 -698
22 2012 144,648 140,000 4,648
23 2013 161,269 140,000 21,269

Totals 3,013,048 3,220,000 206,952

[PD2008AUG25]

I am thinking WH may go GOP way in 2016 as GOP controls congress completely now. Both House and Senate will pass bills that Pres won't like to sign. He will veto them. Then GOP will cry foul. This will go on for 2 years when people will think Obama/Democrats is causing the gridlock and vote GOP.

Mid-term elections are very different than Presidential elections. Republicans tend to do well in midterm elections because electorate composition favors them. This results do not have much bearing on 2016 elections.

Now, Republicans can surprise everybody by passing moderate bills and ending gridlock. That won't happen, hardliners like Cruz and other Presidential hopefuls hell-bent on proving their conservative credentials won't allow something to pass that is moderate.

[iatiam]

Mid-term elections are very different than Presidential elections. Republicans tend to do well in midterm elections because electorate composition favors them. This results do not have much bearing on 2016 elections.

Now, Republicans can surprise everybody by passing moderate bills and ending gridlock. That won't happen, hardliners like Cruz and other Presidential hopefuls hell-bent on proving their conservative credentials won't allow something to pass that is moderate.

Cruz actually supports legal immigration and voted in favor of increasing H1B visas. Its people like Grassley who could turn the table with his anti-any immigration stance and potential to head the senate committee.

Republicans are pro-business and people like Issa (who is himself a businessman) favor legal immigration. But the sticky point is that they favor more H1B visas without corresponding increase in green cards. So the bottle neck becomes even worse.

Expecting Obama to do any thing is foolishness. He could have done a lot in the last six years, but he did not. Whether or not a republican controlled senate translate to any gains is any bodys guess at this time.

About WH, looks like Q made a predication too much in advance. Hillary may not run for president. Or maybe she will. but who the hell knows. Two years is a long period in American politics. Any thing could happen. Another recession and Obama's already low approval numbers may go even lower thus paving to a republican WH. Or economy may turn around and they may retain the WH without senate or house or they may gain both senate and house with the WH. Again, who knows.

As to legal immigration as Al Pacino said in Scent of a Woman - "A life is lived in a single minute" (or some thing like that). So us legals, life is lived in a single spillover season.

Iatiam

[sportsfan33]

Sports - on a different note - this loss means in 2016 dems will win the WH - hands down. GOP will do nothing even though they have control of the senate and congress and the public is going to say enough is enough.

As far as EO is concerned ... if Obama acts now - the GOP will cry foul and say the president is ignoring the mandate. I hope he does something now. Other than EO 2015 doesn't look like a very good year.

Dems will always win the WH until the Republicans change their ways about a bunch of important issues (race relations, guns, environment) and a bunch of non issues (same sex marriage). The demographics have changed enough to ensure it will happen. Florida, Colorado and Virginia are blue for all practical purposes.

On the other hand, a majority of Americans support securing the border and taking a tough stance on illegal immigration. If there was a terrorist attack tomorrow in the country and if it was traced to the porous border, can you imagine what kind of hell will break loose? There have already been open threats this will happen.

If BO acts unilaterally, he will make matters worse and cost the Dems even more Senate/Congress seats. Unfortunately, there is only 1 president, but there are several prospective Congressmen who don't want to face angry voters back home. BO will be practically isolated.

The Republicans lost the governor race in Maryland. It is very telling. This election was a clear mandate against some of the key BO policies, and immigration is one of them. That's how I am seeing it.

The tenable solution for legal immigrants is the H4-EAD rule. In my view, that solves a bunch of problems.

[sportsfan33]

Some key eye opener stats:

Voting by race:
60% white vote to the Republicans, which is at least 5% larger than what Romney received.
They even received 35% Hispanic votes. A presidential candidate like Jeb Bush can get even more.
What was the most surprising was that the Asian vote was split dead even.

This shows that Republicans may be changing and embracing more diversity. If they were to change their hardliner stance on some nutjob issues and distance themselves from the tea party, things will be interesting for 2016.

[iatiam]

Some key eye opener stats:

Voting by race:
60% white vote to the Republicans, which is at least 5% larger than what Romney received.
They even received 35% Hispanic votes. A presidential candidate like Jeb Bush can get even more.
What was the most surprising was that the Asian vote was split dead even.

This shows that Republicans may be changing and embracing more diversity. If they were to change their hardliner stance on some nutjob issues and distance themselves from the tea party, things will be interesting for 2016.

Sorry to disagree with you. H4-EAD is just a fraction of the total legal immigrants in line. For it to work you need a PERM, approved 140 and a spouse on H4. Plus it might open the very familiar bickering among Indians. Some one with H4-EAD might get a job over some one with an OPT who requres a visa. Haven't we seen such fights happening in the site that shall not be named.

Iatiam

[gten20]

Got this in the email.

REGISTER NOW!

The Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman is hosting its Fourth Annual Conference featuring keynote remarks from U.S. Department of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson, a conversation with USCIS Director León Rodríguez, and panel discussions throughout the afternoon on issues impacting the delivery of immigration benefits and services.

Government and Stakeholders Working Together to Improve Immigration Services.

November 6, 2014
8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
National Archives
700 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C.
This conference provides a forum to exchange ideas and suggestions to address the current legal immigration challenges faced by individuals, families, and employers with leaders from across the government, non-governmental organizations and the private sector. If you would like to attend, please register by emailing your name, title, business/organization/agency affiliation, and phone number to cisombudsman.publicaffairs@hq.dhs.gov with “Annual Conference” in the subject line.

Registration will remain open until all registration slots are full. If you are unable to join us in person, please watch a livestream of the conference's morning session.

If you have questions about the conference program, please email Senior Advisor Margaret Gleason at Margaret.Gleason@hq.dhs.gov or cisombudsman.publicaffairs@hq.dhs.gov.

Sincerely,

Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
www.dhs.gov/cisombudsman

[sportsfan33]

Sorry to disagree with you. H4-EAD is just a fraction of the total legal immigrants in line. For it to work you need a PERM, approved 140 and a spouse on H4. Plus it might open the very familiar bickering among Indians. Some one with H4-EAD might get a job over some one with an OPT who requres a visa. Haven't we seen such fights happening in the site that shall not be named.

Iatiam

I am talking about what can be practically achieved right now after the massive rout Dems experienced.

When Alaska and Louisiana go to republicans, it will be 54-46, a swing of unprecedented 9 seats. The Republicans are also tracking 250 seats in the House, which is historic by any measure.

This takes out any potential for an EO in my opinion. Even before the election, dependent counting and recapture could not have been possibly achieved by EO alone, and Spec had demonstrated that multiple times.

Any relief is relief. H4-EAD helps over 100K families. That's good enough for now. There will always be someone who doesn't get it, but we don't live in a utopia, do we?

[sportsfan33]

[I][I]



That is not correct. I dug up all the EB based visas since FY1991. This shows a possible PD recapture amount of 206.9 K. visas.

S.No FY EB TOTAL QUOTA Delta
1 1991 59,525 140,000 -80,475
2 1992 116,198 140,000 -23,802
3 1993 147,012 140,000 7,012
4 1994 123,291 140,000 -16,709
5 1995 85,336 140,000 -54,664
6 1996 117,499 140,000 -22,501
7 1997 90,607 140,000 -49,393
8 1998 77,517 140,000 -62,483
9 1999 56,817 140,000 -83,183
10 2000 111,166 140,000 -28,834
11 2001 186,536 140,000 46,536
12 2002 171,583 140,000 31,583
13 2003 83,020 140,000 -56,980
14 2004 157,107 140,000 17,107
15 2005 242,335 140,000 102,335
16 2006 133,622 140,000 -6,378
17 2007 154,460 140,000 14,460
18 2008 162,949 140,000 22,949
19 2009 140,987 140,000 987
20 2010 150,262 140,000 10,262
21 2011 139,302 140,000 -698
22 2012 144,648 140,000 4,648
23 2013 161,269 140,000 21,269

Totals 3,013,048 3,220,000 206,952

Do we know if unused EB visas have been given to FB?

Even if EB and FB in a given year have wasted unused visas, recapture can only work with a new act (like AC21 for example) passed by the Congress. That's my understanding. The president cannot act against the law...he has only so much wiggle room.

Edit: Also, isn't this analysis very simplistic? Do we know for example if the demand in 1991 was actually 140K? I am betting it wasn't. So how can you say 80K visas were wasted that year? On the same measure, you are undercounting the EB quota in 2013 for example. That year, the quota was in fact 158K and we received only 3K more, not 21K.

If we get down to such details, it will become a hard affair to determine exactly how many visas were wasted and how many of those are attributable to the USCIS alone.

Finally, my understanding was that AC21 passed in 2000 has already captured a good chunk of visas wasted in the 1990s.

Spec/kanmani/Q/informed souls can comment further.

[PD2008AUG25]

Cruz actually supports legal immigration and voted in favor of increasing H1B visas. Its people like Grassley who could turn the table with his anti-any immigration stance and potential to head the senate committee.

I mentioned Cruz as a hardliner in General and not specifically to Immigration. Also, there are lot of Republicans who keep talking about helping legal immigrants as they want to avoid being called as anti-all-immigration and for business lobby. They have little sympathy or understanding of legal immigration problems. Proof is in pudding, what legal immigration bills were passed by house in last Congress or what bills Cruz supported or authored? Cruz knows that certain section of Republicans oppose all kind of immigration and *actually* doing something for legal immigration will only harm him.

[iatiam]

I mentioned Cruz as a hardliner in General and not specifically to Immigration. Also, there are lot of Republicans who keep talking about helping legal immigrants as they want to avoid being called as anti-all-immigration and for business lobby. They have little sympathy or understanding of legal immigration problems. Proof is in pudding, what legal immigration bills were passed by house in last Congress or what bills Cruz supported or authored? Cruz knows that certain section of Republicans oppose all kind of immigration and *actually* doing something for legal immigration will only harm him.

Cruz was elected recently. He doesn't have a track record to prove any thing. Your question about sympathy to legal immigration applied to democrats too. With WH, senate and house how many pro-legal bills did they pass? HR3012 and the bill to convert DV visas (introduced by Issa) were initiated by Republicans. In fact CIR was also initiated by Rubio who has publicly supported legal immigration.

I don't want to turn this in to a debate on which party is better. I am not an American and would not even pretend to be one.