Q,Originally Posted by qesehmk
As I speculated in a previous post, the movement seemed quite as expected.
There is a backlog of 10-11k cases for EB3-ROW due to the retrogression of dates earlier in the year. There aren't enough visas available to cover that demand and move the COD back to Oct 12 in a single month.
It's very similar to the way CO brought EB2-ROW back to Current at the beginning of FY2013 after they had retrogressed for the last quarter of FY2012.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
6 month is a very pessimistic guess
I guess it should reach OCT12 max by December, if it take 6 months to reach OCT12, then ROW won't be able to generate Demand that will be able to use their allocations unless he immediately makes it Current.
10-11K is a very normal demand for a category that is current e.g. EB1. That's why I thought that is not sufficient to move only by six months unless CO keeps moving 6 monts every 3 months. That would make sense.CO can do whatever he likes. I am just saying he can't delay it beyond 6 months. But see ... I am a bit sympathetic to CO on ROW because in ROW there could be a large hidden CP demand esp on China side. So perhaps he is being caution. If you just go by 485 numbers then I think the dates should've been at Oct 12 right now. But the fact they are not means CO is thinking of CP demand and being cautious about it.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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I'd have to disagree. Having 10-11k preadjudicated cases going into a month would not be normal for a Category that was Current.
When the DD was published, other than when they were retrogressed, EB2-ROW never had a pending demand of more than a few hundred.
The highest number reached was 4.9k in the October 2012 DD. CO took 2 months to bring EB2-ROW back to Current from 01JAN09.
In terms of demand through a month for a whole Category, then it can't average more than about 3.5k / month (rather less for ROW only).
On that basis, I would say that demand that DOS can see of 10-11k is rather more than normal for a month.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks for your input qesehmk, that gives me some confidence i was expecting with the recent movement within the next 6months or so;the reason i am a down on confidence for stamping is i recently had to file nunc - pron tunce to fix my status as my i94 had expired with my passport and i didnt realize.. it still concerns me if i travel outside if it could become an issue . am i being too worried? thoughts?
I am not qualified to talk about such a thing. Perhaps Kanmani Spec or others may have some thoughts.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
When you get an H1b extension approval from the USCIS, you have nothing to worry. You could have even corrected your I-94 validity at CBP to match that of with H1B approval notice. ( I assumed you have a H1b approval to a later date but I-94 expired sooner than the H1b)
yea H1b was a valid until a year later then my i94/passport expiry date. I do have the approval now and i am glad i was able to take care of it! went thru a nevry period while the process was still going on. .
appreciate yours and qesehmks input !
Glad you got approved.
I said you could have extended your I-94 card at the International Airport you arrived by presenting your H1b approval copy at their office. Nunc-pro-tunc is the second option. You have passed that stage. But this is just for your information in the event of anything in future.
ya i did try that..they were not willing to help and as a last resort i had to file nun pro-tunc. i am glad its over
I thought this might be interesting to some, especially those who are undergoing CP. I suspect the ones mainly affected would be EB3-P, but not them alone.
http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8248-DELAYS-AT-THE-NVC
DELAYS AT THE NVC
by
CMusillo
, 09-22-2014 at 10:53 AM (Chris Musillo on Nurse and Allied Health Immigration)
by Chris Musillo
The progression of priority dates in the recent few months has been exciting news for many, especially those EB-3 applicants who have been patiently waiting for their green cards for many years.
Unfortunately the unexpected progression has swamped the National Visa Center. The NVC is now issuing letters indicating that NVC cases will be delayed for 60 days. Here is an excerpt from a stock form letter that our office has received in the last few days. We have received about a dozen of these letters.
We are currently receiving an increased number of approved petitions from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. As a result, we are experiencing increased review times for documents received.
We expect it will be at least 60 days from the date we received your mail before we complete the review of your documents. We will notify you when we review your documents.
We are working to reduce these processing times and we appreciate your patience.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Within one week we shall have the November visa bulletin. Curious to see how much EB3 ROW will move by... Hopefully 6months to 1 year
CO need to act fast this year in moving EB3-ROW dates rapidly forward. There is NOT much demand in the pipeline for EB3-ROW.
If he wants to be in comfortable situation in Q4, he has to make EB3-ROW current ASAP. He was not acted fast in FY13 which resulted in 5k+ horizontal spillover to EB3-India from EB3-ROW in FY13Q4.
In either case I'm expecting EB3-India will get atleast 5k horizontal spilover from EB3-ROW this year too in FY15Q4. Let us see how it goes.
Here is link to : Current EB3-ROW and EB3-I 485 inventory trends
I agree about the need to move EB3-WW towards Current as quickly as possible, but he has to balance the wish to do that with the number of preadjudicated cases he can already see as demand. That might be 10-11k and he has to have sufficient visa numbers to approve most of those before he can move rapidly past 01OCT12.
It might have to wait as late as January 2015 to move beyond the latest date that EB3-WW reached, given there is competing pressure on visa numbers in Q1 from other Categories and Countries, notably from EB2-I.
I also expect (on the current trends) EB3-I to receive some FA in FY2015 and a much greater amount in FY2016. I think EB3-P numbers will determine the extent.
If and when EB3-I moves beyond EB2-I COD (possibly as early as FY2017 in your scenario) then we will undoubtedly see greater EB3-I applications and reverse porting from EB2-I as was seen with China.
Last edited by Spectator; 10-03-2014 at 04:13 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
The latest CO has to act to make EB3ROW current is by March 2015, this will give time for new EB3ROW applicant to get adjudicated.
If he keep moving by 6 months this mean that by Q2 there will be virtually no noticeable demand of maybe 100/200 Visas per month from EB3ROW and rest of the Quarter visa will fall to Q3.
Anyway I guess it is a good year for both EB3ROW and EB3I, and the year next appear to be bright too if the same trend continue.
have you guys read this one:
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...ctober-1-2014/
This indicates our predictions in this forum is correct and CO is reading the same from the current data.EB-2 India will retrogress significantly in the November or December 2014 Visa Bulletin — going back to early 2005. EB-3 India will move very slowly in the near term but EB-3 ROW and China are expected to move forward significantly
This LINK has the answer why the recent EB3-P rapid movement.
It is truly shocking that after so many years of movement in just a few months, EB3P is still running with EB3ROW. If any demand had to come from 5+ years of movement, it would surely have shown up by now and would have cause EB3P to lag EB3ROW (like EB3C) - but that is not the case in today's VB. There is demand destruction - and there is massive demand destruction. Current signs point towards massive.
Spare a thought for thousands of folks who went through the process, did all the paperwork, likely spend a lot of money to get in the line. They waited for 7 years for their date to be current - and when it does there is no demand for them here. How awful!
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
I assume a good amount of these EB3P is nurses. They might have changed their plans of of coming to US. My sister in law is in EB3-I line as a nurse with a PD sometime in 2005. She and her family has changed their plans and is looking forward to settling back in India after working many years in Kuwait. For them it doesn't make sense to put life on hold for a GC. Moreover they have to keep updating their RN status etc.
looked like EB3 Row will become current or atleast move to oct12.
CO moved EB3P and EB3ROW to 01jun12 , on what basis ?
dont see the demand data document (http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...ant-visas.html)
or updated inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory).
when will we know FY14 visa usage for EB and FB? will there be any FB spillover to EB in FY15 ?
it's a pretty good year for EB3ROW and to some extent EB3I later in the year
EB3ROW is just 18 Months from being technically 'current'
To all Great Gurus here,
I know I asked this question a number of times here before and I am asking again.
Any guess how much SO EB3 I might receive by the end of FY 2015. I know that it is too early to predict but couldn't stop myself from asking this question. I am waiting in line for 8 years. So my patience is wearing thin with kid close to getting into college. Can I assume the end is nearing for PD July 2006 EB3 I.
Thanks a lot in advance
Amul
imdeng,
That's what happens when there is a whole class of skilled worker (RN & PT) with no corresponding non-immigrant visa available to them (the 500 H1C visa available per year don't count for anything).
Immigration is the only route and they can't work in the USA until that happens.
They therefore have to rely on a job offer that has been 6-7 years old by the time the PD becomes current. In the real world, that is not going to happen and there is massive demand destruction.
I don't think the demand or will to immigrate to the USA from the Philippines has diminished, so it is likely the numbers will increase again.
As the COD advances nearer to Current for EB3-P, the wait time will be dramatically lower and the chances of the job offer surviving the wait will be correspondingly greater.
At that point, the EB3-P numbers will increase again IMO.
Last edited by Spectator; 10-09-2014 at 02:47 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
There are a couple of things that are happening here.
a) because of higher pay - a lot of Americans are becoming nurses now.
b) because of high cost of a nurse - the hospitals are moving to innovative solutions. e.g. hospitals are already using tele-monitoring to allow the same nurse to monitor more number of patients.
So although not immediately - it is possible that hospitals will be willing to hire less and less nurses from abroad.
p.s. - There is one factor that will though work in favor of nurses - and that is the aging population and resulting need for more number of nurses.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
to Amul:
Yes it is still early to know the specifics, it will depend on number of factors:
1-how many visas are available for EB3 this year
2-how many demand EB3ROW will generate
i'm estimating the EB3ROW demand for this year to be ~22000, from that definitely not all of that will get approve this year so the demand could be less than that.
so you are looking anywhere from 2000 to 5000 SO this year if i take a blind shot on this.
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