EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[saagar_is_cool]

14K + 4K = 18K that need to be greened. 3K this year will be used in October 2014 to clear pending inventory until May 1, 2009, so this 18K is "after" the 3K allocation. So EB2I would need 21K SOFAD to go into inventory building mode in 2015. I was off by 2K.

I see multiple statements about clearing till May 2009 in Oct 2014. Does this mean that there is slight chance for first time filer in Sep 2014 to be greened directly without EAD/AP ? I ask bcoz I was under assumption that only those ppl that filed in 2012 and are before May 2009 have a chance this year and first time filers have zero chances. Were there previous instances when this clearing got first time filers GC in a couple of months.

[jdoe99]

I see multiple statements about clearing till May 2009 in Oct 2014. Does this mean that there is slight chance for first time filer in Sep 2014 to be greened directly without EAD/AP ? I ask bcoz I was under assumption that only those ppl that filed in 2012 and are before May 2009 have a chance this year and first time filers have zero chances. Were there previous instances when this clearing got first time filers GC in a couple of months.

There were 132 first time filers on Trackitt who got greened last year in Aug and Sep, i.e the first and second month of filing after the dates opened up. As far as if it was only last year, i dont know as this spreadsheet is one that someone on trackitt put together for FY2013 .

[saagar_is_cool]

There were 132 first time filers on Trackitt who got greened last year in Aug and Sep, i.e the first and second month of filing after the dates opened up. As far as if it was only last year, i dont know as this spreadsheet is one that someone on trackitt put together for FY2013 .

Thank you very much for the link, this gives very good perspective from dates point of view. I think from the data listed in there, first time filers in July and August have a chance. I see that first time filers in September have been approved only from November 1. But from what I read on forums, dates will definitely retrogress in Nov bulletin which means that there will be no approvals in November. So I guess my best bet is next year. I was thinking to change jobs in Mar/Apr of next year (6 months of 485 filing) but if I will definitely get greened next year, I might as well wait for 3-5 months and get the GC itself to avoid any trigger of RFE for EVL and AC21 etc.

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus,

My PD is July 2011 in EB2 I.

I'm working for a consulting company and working for its client(no other layers). I'm on 9th year of H1B (3 yr approval based on I-140). My client made a good offer to me and I'm thinking of joining them. However, this client won't start the GC untill I complete 1 year with them and as you know the PERM process is very slow. So it could take about 2 to 2.5 years before I get I-140 approval if I choose my client's job offer. My concerns are

1. If the H4 EAD rule comes, does it allow the spouse to get EAD even though we are not with the previous employer(consulting firm)? I mean based on the current consulting firm's I-140 after joining the client company? I know the rule is not finalized and no one is sure if it will even come or not...still since we can use the previous I-140 for retaining PD/renewing H1, do you think is this something we can count on?

I believe that the h4 EAD rule would still apply. Basically you would be transferring your h1 to the new company and consequently his/her h4. Ideally you want to extend your H1 before changing jobs or soon thereafter before your old employer withdraws the 140. Once you get your 3 yrs, you may still need to recapture time "lost" while on H1-overseas travel, etc. to get another few months. It's doable but you will need to make sure you stick to the timeline.

2. Once I leave the consulting firm, they won't proceed the GC. But is there any hope for EAD before early 2017 for mid 2011 folks?

Thanks...
Have a great weekend.

I'd say there is a very good possibility to get EAD by early 2017 due to an inventory build up in 2016.

[Spectator]

Back in April, I had projected that EB2-I could recieve a total of 21k visas in FY14 and based on that number I arrived at Apr'09 COD by end of FY14.
I'm still sticking to that number, a total of 21k for EB2-I in FY14.
Here is the post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2317#post52317

YT,

As a result of your reply, I revisited my assumptions and calculations. I was already slightly uncomfortable with the figure I had for EB1 use and have revised it downwards. It now fits better the observation that the increase may be an EB1-I phenomenon only and what my "gut feel" was telling me.

As a result, my EB2-I figure is now much more in line with your own. This necessitated a change to another figure in the EB2-I calculation I was not entirely satisfied with (the new figure now seems much more sensible) and I feel more comfortable with the result.

Thanks for your feedback. It was very helpful.

[imdeng]

Any further news of NVC fee notices going on?

[suninphx]

YT,

As a result of your reply, I revisited my assumptions and calculations. I was already slightly uncomfortable with the figure I had for EB1 use and have revised it downwards. It now fits better the observation that the increase may be an EB1-I phenomenon only and what my "gut feel" was telling me.

As a result, my EB2-I figure is now much more in line with your own. This necessitated a change to another figure in the EB2-I calculation I was not entirely satisfied with (the new figure now seems much more sensible) and I feel more comfortable with the result.

Thanks for your feedback. It was very helpful.

Spec - are you going to revisit your front page predictions too? Your very best case scenario you have predicted there is very depressing as my PD is around that :d. Hope you are proven wrong like past years by the 'divine arrangement' we have in place for EB2I.

[helooo]

Hello Q,Spec,Vizcard,Gurus,
Received EAD/AP as first time filer @TSC RD July 3rd,2014.Any hope to get GC in October?

[qesehmk]

heloo the dates are not retrogressing in oct so I think for somebody like you (EB2 PD Jun 2008) there is a lot of hope.

Hello Q,Spec,Vizcard,Gurus,
Received EAD/AP as first time filer @TSC RD July 3rd,2014.Any hope to get GC in October?

[Raj0687]

My 2 cents, If there is a possibility of 15K SOFAD visas in FY15, then CO may go for inventory build up. To give away 15K they would need 20K inventory.
Some may debate, well the equation is balanced now, why would CO build inventory? I would say the equation seems neck-to-neck,
I don't think they can afford to waste any spills at this point in time with such a demand, rather accept new applications.

In short, If SOFAD is at least 15K, there will be a build up. FY15 has 70% chances, If not FY16 for sure.

[vizcard]

My 2 cents, If there is a possibility of 15K SOFAD visas in FY15, then CO may go for inventory build up. To give away 15K they would need 20K inventory.
Some may debate, well the equation is balanced now, why would CO build inventory? I would say the equation seems neck-to-neck,
I don't think they can afford to waste any spills at this point in time with such a demand, rather accept new applications.

In short, If SOFAD is at least 15K, there will be a build up. FY15 has 70% chances, If not FY16 for sure.

There is probably close to 20k in "inventory" (EB2 inventory from May 2009-2010 + porting + leftover from this year). All depends on assumptions. The Jan inventory will give us a good picture.

[GChopeful]

Hi Spec, Q and other estimed contributors,

This is my first post, though, I'm a regular reader of your posts.

I'm first time filer with RD 7/25 and PD of 3/31/08.

Should I keep any hope alive for getting GC this year?

[Jagan01]

Hi Spec, Q and other estimed contributors,

This is my first post, though, I'm a regular reader of your posts.

I'm first time filer with RD 7/25 and PD of 3/31/08.

Should I keep any hope alive for getting GC this year?

Do you want to be happy in Nov or sad in Nov ?

1. Dont keep hopes and assume you are not getting it.
Outcomes:
- You get it : You shall be extremely happy
- You dont get it : You shall not be sad

2. Keep hops and think that you get it.
Outcomes:
- You get it : You shall be happy
- You dont get it : You shall be sad

The above was just sarcasm.

I think there shall be 1/4th of the annual quota + a portion of FB spillover that will be given out in Oct.
- If FB spillover is 0 then only 700 visas given out in Oct. There may be around 1.5k July first time filers + carryover (excluding this year porters) 1.5 k. So 700 out of 3000 which is lower chance but still a chance.
- Like last year if we get 10k from FB then approx 6k comes to EB2I. At that time you stand a good chance.

FB spillover is the key number you need to know.

[qesehmk]

welcome to forum - i think it all depends on whether the VB dates will retro in Nov itself. If they do then you are looking at another 9-12 months wait. If they don't then I am fairly confident you should get it by end of Nov.

Hi Spec, Q and other estimed contributors,

This is my first post, though, I'm a regular reader of your posts.

I'm first time filer with RD 7/25 and PD of 3/31/08.

Should I keep any hope alive for getting GC this year?

[GChopeful]

Thanks Jagan for your reply. I'm, anyway, keeping a very low hope so that I can be happy in Nov.

Do you want to be happy in Nov or sad in Nov ?

1. Dont keep hopes and assume you are not getting it.
Outcomes:
- You get it : You shall be extremely happy
- You dont get it : You shall not be sad

2. Keep hops and think that you get it.
Outcomes:
- You get it : You shall be happy
- You dont get it : You shall be sad

The above was just sarcasm.

I think there shall be 1/4th of the annual quota + a portion of FB spillover that will be given out in Oct.
- If FB spillover is 0 then only 700 visas given out in Oct. There may be around 1.5k July first time filers + carryover (excluding this year porters) 1.5 k. So 700 out of 3000 which is lower chance but still a chance.
- Like last year if we get 10k from FB then approx 6k comes to EB2I. At that time you stand a good chance.

FB spillover is the key number you need to know.

[GChopeful]

Thanks Q, looks like next year is going to be the year for me.

welcome to forum - i think it all depends on whether the VB dates will retro in Nov itself. If they do then you are looking at another 9-12 months wait. If they don't then I am fairly confident you should get it by end of Nov.

[Spectator]

Spec - are you going to revisit your front page predictions too? Your very best case scenario you have predicted there is very depressing as my PD is around that :d. Hope you are proven wrong like past years by the 'divine arrangement' we have in place for EB2I.

suninphx,

Sorry for the late reply.

The changes I made only affect FY2014, so I have no changes to my thoughts for FY2015.

Broadly, they are:

EB5 (for certain) will give no Fall Up to EB1.
EB1 (if it semi-repeats FY2014) will give no Fall Down to EB2.
EB4 Fall Up to EB1 could Fall Down to EB2, depending on EB1 demand (it would have to decrease).

SO to EB2-I is going to be heavily dependent on EB2-WW demand and whether there are any spare FB visas.

Currently, I am assuming there will be no extra FB visas.

For EB2-ROW, assuming it takes an average of 6 months from PERM certification to I-485 approval (I think that is fairly reasonable (it fits the pattern seen in FY2014), but you can play with it), then PERM certifications from Q3-Q4 of the previous FY and Q1-Q2 of the current FY will contribute to I-485 approvals in the current FY (although not NIW or Sch A).

For FY2014 I-485 approvals, that number was 12.6k PERM certifications for ROW.

For FY2015 I-485 approvals, there are likely to be about 11k ROW PERM Certifications for Q3-Q4 FY2014, plus any certifications made in Q1-Q2 FY2015. Even if PERM processing times doubled starting from October, there will still be more projected EB2-ROW approvals in FY2015 than in FY2014. The size of EB2-ROW approvals will be dependent on when the PERM slowdown occurs and the extent of that slowdown. My crystal ball is currently broken, so I can't assess that yet .

Historically, EB2-Mexico will provide FA within EB2. EB2-Philippines may, or may not.

As well as the current Inventory of "old" cases, the July-September period seems to have stimulated a large number of first time filers within the current COD.

I expect CO to use the 3k initial allocation for EB2-I in October, but I don't think that will allow all the remaining "old" cases to be approved (I'm aware not everybody shares this opinion). Any SO (presumably only released towards the end of FY2015) will have to cover :

Approvals from a retrogressed COD from November onwards, plus
"Old" cases left behind, plus
The new applications that will be preadjudicated by that time, plus
Any new porting cases, plus
Any forward movement of the COD beyond 01MAY09.

If EB2-WW is going to provide the bulk of that SO, then it is difficult to see dates moving beyond 2009.

Look, by definition, it is very speculative. You may not agree and it would be hard for me to argue against another scenario. I can only state it as I see it, which I have always tried to do. I think most regular forum members know I tend to err on the pessimistic side and I make no apologies for doing so. I've never asked people to agree with my predictions - I prefer to provide good data that people can use to make their own prediction.

As you say, something always comes along. I have a suspicion (gut feel only) that EB1 approvals are somewhat "massaged" to stay within the initial allocation for EB1. That would allow the full EB4 Fall up to EB1 to further Fall Down to EB2. Maybe there will be significant numbers of FB visas.

Currently, I am fairly confident that there will be no new Inventory build up occurring in FY2015.

The situation will become much clearer when the FY2014 figures are published and the Jan 2015 USCIS Inventory is published.

I wish you the best and sincerely hope the COD does allow your case to be approved in FY2015.

[Kanmani]

I always stood on the optimistic side and always differed from Spec's projection, but this time (strange!), I have a strong opinion that dates might end up closing 2009, which is of course my personal analysis.

I have been watching the perm and I-140 trend from last year, the FY2014 was a slow year for both the perm and I-140 in turn favored and set forth an imaginary blow for spillover rain, that in turn could have taken us to Nov 2009. That didn't happen. When we notice the uscis trend chart, whenever there is a backlog in the I-140, they tend the clear them when it reaches the break point. I am noticing those symptoms from the graph that FY 2015 could be the backlog clearance year.

This is my optimistic projection, but very much wishing at least a 12-14 months move next year. Let us see how the trend goes over the coming months.

[jdoe99]

I expect CO to use the 3k initial allocation for EB2-I in October.......

Spec,
The initial allocation is something people have different opinion about. Some say that a max of 27% can only be allocated per quarter, hence 700ish. However, looking at the number of EB2I's who got approved, I am interpreting that to be a max of 27% per category and not country+category. The optimistic side of me wants to hear that the entire 3K could be allocated What are your thoughts on the rule?
Thanks.

[Spectator]

Spec,
The initial allocation is something people have different opinion about. Some say that a max of 27% can only be allocated per quarter, hence 700ish. However, looking at the number of EB2I's who got approved, I am interpreting that to be a max of 27% per category and not country+category. The optimistic side of me wants to hear that the entire 3K could be allocated What are your thoughts on the rule?
Thanks.

jdoe99,

The law only says that no more than 27% of the total EB allocation for the FY can be allocated in each of the first 3 quarters. It does not mention that they should be prorated across Categories/Countries (or per month for that matter) in the quarter.

INA 201 - WORLDWIDE LEVEL OF IMMIGRATION

(a) In general. - Exclusive of aliens described in subsection (b), aliens born in a foreign state or dependent area who may be issued immigrant visas or who may otherwise acquire the status of an alien lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence are limited to-

(2) employment-based immigrants described in section 203(b) (or who are admitted under section 211(a) on the basis of a prior issuance of a visa to their accompanying parent under section 203(b) ), in a number not to exceed in any fiscal year the number specified in subsection (d) for that year, and not to exceed in any of the first 3 quarters of any fiscal year 27 percent of the worldwide level under such subsection for all of such fiscal year; and

For an EB allocation of 140,000 that at is 37,800 visas available for the first quarter.

At the beginning of FY2014, some 6-7k approvals were made for EB2-I in the first quarter.

[jdoe99]

Thanks for your clear explanation as always

[iatiam]

I always stood on the optimistic side and always differed from Spec's projection, but this time (strange!), I have a strong opinion that dates might end up closing 2009, which is of course my personal analysis.

I have been watching the perm and I-140 trend from last year, the FY2014 was a slow year for both the perm and I-140 in turn favored and set forth an imaginary blow for spillover rain, that in turn could have taken us to Nov 2009. That didn't happen. When we notice the uscis trend chart, whenever there is a backlog in the I-140, they tend the clear them when it reaches the break point. I am noticing those symptoms from the graph that FY 2015 could be the backlog clearance year.

This is my optimistic projection, but very much wishing at least a 12-14 months move next year. Let us see how the trend goes over the coming months.

Spec, Kanmani,

If the inventory is not buildup in FY15, then how soon should the dates be moved so that there is no wastage of visas in CY15? Also how far will the dates move in the inventory building mode? I know this one is a hard question, so can we at least put a ballpark number equal to the inventory buildup in 2011.

Iatiam

[Kanmani]

Iatiam,

DoS is comfortable moving dates in the last quarter, I assume they do so next year too.

As far as the inventory building, there is a speculation that they tend to make a big move in the election year and this was observed by the people in the pursuit of GC for a longer period ( mostly Eb3). They are suggesting there is a pattern going on during the election for years.

I do think there will be a date move in 2015 during FY2016.

[4WatItsWorth]

suninphx,

Sorry for the late reply.

The changes I made only affect FY2014, so I have no changes to my thoughts for FY2015.

Broadly, they are:

EB5 (for certain) will give no Fall Up to EB1.
EB1 (if it semi-repeats FY2014) will give no Fall Down to EB2.
EB4 Fall Up to EB1 could Fall Down to EB2, depending on EB1 demand (it would have to decrease).

SO to EB2-I is going to be heavily dependent on EB2-WW demand and whether there are any spare FB visas.

Currently, I am assuming there will be no extra FB visas.

For EB2-ROW, assuming it takes an average of 6 months from PERM certification to I-485 approval (I think that is fairly reasonable (it fits the pattern seen in FY2014), but you can play with it), then PERM certifications from Q3-Q4 of the previous FY and Q1-Q2 of the current FY will contribute to I-485 approvals in the current FY (although not NIW or Sch A).

For FY2014 I-485 approvals, that number was 12.6k PERM certifications for ROW.

For FY2015 I-485 approvals, there are likely to be about 11k ROW PERM Certifications for Q3-Q4 FY2014, plus any certifications made in Q1-Q2 FY2015. Even if PERM processing times doubled starting from October, there will still be more projected EB2-ROW approvals in FY2015 than in FY2014. The size of EB2-ROW approvals will be dependent on when the PERM slowdown occurs and the extent of that slowdown. My crystal ball is currently broken, so I can't assess that yet .

Historically, EB2-Mexico will provide FA within EB2. EB2-Philippines may, or may not.

As well as the current Inventory of "old" cases, the July-September period seems to have stimulated a large number of first time filers within the current COD.

I expect CO to use the 3k initial allocation for EB2-I in October, but I don't think that will allow all the remaining "old" cases to be approved (I'm aware not everybody shares this opinion). Any SO (presumably only released towards the end of FY2015) will have to cover :

Approvals from a retrogressed COD from November onwards, plus
"Old" cases left behind, plus
The new applications that will be preadjudicated by that time, plus
Any new porting cases, plus
Any forward movement of the COD beyond 01MAY09.

If EB2-WW is going to provide the bulk of that SO, then it is difficult to see dates moving beyond 2009.

Look, by definition, it is very speculative. You may not agree and it would be hard for me to argue against another scenario. I can only state it as I see it, which I have always tried to do. I think most regular forum members know I tend to err on the pessimistic side and I make no apologies for doing so. I've never asked people to agree with my predictions - I prefer to provide good data that people can use to make their own prediction.

As you say, something always comes along. I have a suspicion (gut feel only) that EB1 approvals are somewhat "massaged" to stay within the initial allocation for EB1. That would allow the full EB4 Fall up to EB1 to further Fall Down to EB2. Maybe there will be significant numbers of FB visas.

Currently, I am fairly confident that there will be no new Inventory build up occurring in FY2015.

The situation will become much clearer when the FY2014 figures are published and the Jan 2015 USCIS Inventory is published.

I wish you the best and sincerely hope the COD does allow your case to be approved in FY2015.

Spec, wonderful summary! Many thanks for putting that together. What are the chances that dates will at least move to 1Nov2009 -- upto when the RFEs were issued last FY? And when do you think that may happen -- July (or Q4) 2015 or can it happen sooner?

[ambrosia]

Do you want to be happy in Nov or sad in Nov ?

1. Dont keep hopes and assume you are not getting it.
Outcomes:
- You get it : You shall be extremely happy
- You dont get it : You shall not be sad

2. Keep hops and think that you get it.
Outcomes:
- You get it : You shall be happy
- You dont get it : You shall be sad

The above was just sarcasm.

I think there shall be 1/4th of the annual quota + a portion of FB spillover that will be given out in Oct.
- If FB spillover is 0 then only 700 visas given out in Oct. There may be around 1.5k July first time filers + carryover (excluding this year porters) 1.5 k. So 700 out of 3000 which is lower chance but still a chance.
- Like last year if we get 10k from FB then approx 6k comes to EB2I. At that time you stand a good chance.

FB spillover is the key number you need to know.

Great comment,

I too have been lurking around this forum reading all the great posts by gurus..

I am a first time filer on 7/28 (NSC) with a PD of Dec 2007 and would like to know if there is any chance of me getting greened this year?

Though i tend to stay put on the first scenario you mentioned, at times I tend to jump to the second.

Thanks and keep up all the great work you guys do....Some serious discussions I see on this forum