EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[vishnu]

Further to my post from the weekend about receiving NVC fee notice (Sep 2010 PD), my lawyer (one of the largest law national firms) confirmed that other late 2010 PDs have received notices. Her view is that DoS anticipates dates becoming current soon. It may not be the case, but theysend out notices only when they think dates become current soon.

[VV_Nlr]

Long time follower of this forum.
You are like the Big Data of Immigration.

My Pd is 02/02/2011. I also received NVC Fee notice over the weekend.
Last time, I received the notice in 2012, the bubble was starting.
But now when the dates are supposed to to retrogress?

[ramaka02]

Have you tried reaching out to the Ombudsman office and see if they can shed some light on your case? I sincerely hope you get the approval soon.

There is nothing wrong with my case. There are many like me from 2008 who were left (based on trackit discussion threads and not from the tracker). I guess it all depends on luck

[vizcard]

Long time follower of this forum.
You are like the Big Data of Immigration.

My Pd is 02/02/2011. I also received NVC Fee notice over the weekend.
Last time, I received the notice in 2012, the bubble was starting.
But now when the dates are supposed to to retrogress?

Further to my post from the weekend about receiving NVC fee notice (Sep 2010 PD), my lawyer (one of the largest law national firms) confirmed that other late 2010 PDs have received notices. Her view is that DoS anticipates dates becoming current soon. It may not be the case, but theysend out notices only when they think dates become current soon.

My thought is there is some system trigger where based on certain conditions (country not being one of them), it will spit out NVC notices. Remember that these are not just for EB-I. Other countries and categories are way ahead in terms of PD and so it makes sense for them to get their NVC notices ahead of time.

Thats my theory anyway

[iatiam]

So I had a quick question on the effect of cut-off dates on porting volume. I checked the 485 inventory and it seems like there are 12,000 people between November 2003 (current EB3I PD)and Jan 2005. Now, if the CoD for EB2I is moved to 2005 (assuming Jan 2005) per reports, does it mean that the porting from EB3I to EB2I would be very minimum. I am familiar with the 5000 as the number of porters (with 3000 as close contender). If you need 5000 porting cases, then it would mean 40-50% of the EB3I folks in the window needs to be ported. That does not seem to be possible.

Come summer 2015 when the dates progress, there will be a few more porters. But is the 3-month window long enough to get all of them in?

Iatiam

[vishnu]

My thought is there is some system trigger where based on certain conditions (country not being one of them), it will spit out NVC notices. Remember that these are not just for EB-I. Other countries and categories are way ahead in terms of PD and so it makes sense for them to get their NVC notices ahead of time.

Thats my theory anyway

that wouldnt make sense - if that were the case, would have received these notices many times over the past 4 years...only received in 2012 (ahead of move upto may 2010), and now...
may not amount to anything, but worth watching

[Jonty Rhodes]

Long time follower of this forum.
You are like the Big Data of Immigration.

My Pd is 02/02/2011. I also received NVC Fee notice over the weekend.
Last time, I received the notice in 2012, the bubble was starting.
But now when the dates are supposed to to retrogress?

My PD is 5/20/2011. In FY2012, I remember reading the news of few EB2I candidates with PDs of June and even September 2011 receiving NVC notices. I was really excited with news having a PD in May, 2011 but nothing came out of it and the dates stalled and eventually retrogressed. Interestingly, despite those NVC notices, dates never crossed into 2011.

To me, it seems like sometimes the NVC notices go out to applicants way in advance but especially when it comes to EB2I in the current situation, NVC notices do not have significant correlation with PD advancement in visa bulletin. For EB2ROW, it is a different story.

I would not be excited this time. But that's just me.

If EB2I PD advances, it would be a miracle. But I don't expect it especially when Mr. CO has categorically stated that dates will retrogress come November.

[imdeng]

Retrogression only delays the porting volume. If PD goes too 2004 then yes EB3I folks with PD after 2004 will not be able to file for porting - but they will just keep waiting and accumulating and will file en-masse when dates become current for them during summer spillover season. Those who were planning to port still end up porting - just that instead of happening immediately it will happen a few months later.

So I had a quick question on the effect of cut-off dates on porting volume. I checked the 485 inventory and it seems like there are 12,000 people between November 2003 (current EB3I PD)and Jan 2005. Now, if the CoD for EB2I is moved to 2005 (assuming Jan 2005) per reports, does it mean that the porting from EB3I to EB2I would be very minimum. I am familiar with the 5000 as the number of porters (with 3000 as close contender). If you need 5000 porting cases, then it would mean 40-50% of the EB3I folks in the window needs to be ported. That does not seem to be possible.

Come summer 2015 when the dates progress, there will be a few more porters. But is the 3-month window long enough to get all of them in?

Iatiam

[imdeng]

Sure dates did not reach as far as NVC notice dates - but NVC notices did pre-signal the coming move in PD. Once NVC notices stopped, PD movement also stopped - and vice-versa.

Am not saying dates will move as far as the NVC notice dates - but I am saying that NVC notices are usually sent in anticipation of dates moving ahead. It might be a smart move to move dates to say 01JAN2012 for a couple of months. Approve folks upto 01NOV2009 to avoid double RFE issue - and in the process get enough inventory to avoid any issues for FY15 and FY16.

My PD is 5/20/2011. In FY2012, I remember reading the news of few EB2I candidates with PDs of June and even September 2011 receiving NVC notices. I was really excited with news having a PD in May, 2011 but nothing came out of it and the dates stalled and eventually retrogressed. Interestingly, despite those NVC notices, dates never crossed into 2011.

To me, it seems like sometimes the NVC notices go out to applicants way in advance but especially when it comes to EB2I in the current situation, NVC notices do not have significant correlation with PD advancement in visa bulletin. For EB2ROW, it is a different story.

I would not be excited this time. But that's just me.

If EB2I PD advances, it would be a miracle. But I don't expect it especially when Mr. CO has categorically stated that dates will retrogress come November.

[vizcard]

So I had a quick question on the effect of cut-off dates on porting volume. I checked the 485 inventory and it seems like there are 12,000 people between November 2003 (current EB3I PD)and Jan 2005. Now, if the CoD for EB2I is moved to 2005 (assuming Jan 2005) per reports, does it mean that the porting from EB3I to EB2I would be very minimum. I am familiar with the 5000 as the number of porters (with 3000 as close contender). If you need 5000 porting cases, then it would mean 40-50% of the EB3I folks in the window needs to be ported. That does not seem to be possible.

Come summer 2015 when the dates progress, there will be a few more porters. But is the 3-month window long enough to get all of them in?

Iatiam

Retrogression only delays the porting volume. If PD goes too 2004 then yes EB3I folks with PD after 2004 will not be able to file for porting - but they will just keep waiting and accumulating and will file en-masse when dates become current for them during summer spillover season. Those who were planning to port still end up porting - just that instead of happening immediately it will happen a few months later.

and to add to imdeng's comment regarding the 3-month window. If the EB3 applicant already has an EB3 485 filed and is porting, it is a short process (almost click a button to approve). If they are first time filers, obviously they won't be approved in 3 months.

[Spectator]

Long time follower of this forum.
You are like the Big Data of Immigration.

My Pd is 02/02/2011. I also received NVC Fee notice over the weekend.
Last time, I received the notice in 2012, the bubble was starting.
But now when the dates are supposed to to retrogress?

In an article dated April 29, 2014, CO said the following about the timing of NVC Invoices:

Note on Timing of NVC Fee Invoices

Mr. Oppenheim noted that the National Visa Center (NVC) is sending our requests for fee payments about 8 to 12 months in advance of the priority date becoming current (this is change to the previous practice of doing so 12-18 months in advance). When applicants pay the fee earlier after receipt of the fee invoice, Mr. Oppenheim is able to “see” the demand earlier and adjust the demand in the category accordingly, eliminating the need of major forward movement, followed by a retrogression.

That said, I see no prospect, outside of Executive Action, that would make a PD of 02/02/2011 current within the next 12 months.

[gcvijay]

Hi Spec and other gurus in this forum

Thanks for all your guidance to your community. I keep hearing that there will be very less or no spillovers from EB2 ROW, EB5, EB1 and FB for FY 2015. With that being true will there be any chance of moving dates beyond May 2009 during June or July 2015 Visa Bulletins. Do July 2009 priority dates stand a chance getting GC or EAD by end of FY 2015 or Early FY 2016? Also, I saw the news about perm delays starting October 2015 and how will this impact EB2 India Dates? I hope I didn't ask any stupid question.

Appreciate your response.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec and other gurus in this forum

Thanks for all your guidance to your community. I keep hearing that there will be very less or no spillovers from EB2 ROW, EB5, EB1 and FB for FY 2015. With that being true will there be any chance of moving dates beyond May 2009 during June or July 2015 Visa Bulletins. Do July 2009 priority dates stand a chance getting GC or EAD by end of FY 2015 or Early FY 2016? Also, I saw the news about perm delays starting October 2015 and how will this impact EB2 India Dates? I hope I didn't ask any stupid question.

Appreciate your response.

gcvijay,

Welcome to the forum. No question is stupid and yours certainly is not.

I'll give my thoughts, but they are subject to change as more data becomes available on FY2014 use. Other people may have an entirely different (or opposite viewpoint).

In the worst case scenario:

a) No spare FB visas available in FY2015.

b) EB1 uses their allocation plus any Fall Up from EB4.

c) EB5 uses their allocation.

d) EB2-ROW uses their allocation. If Q4 FY2014 PERM certifications continue at the same rate in Q1-Q2 FY2015, that is a likely scenario.

e) CO uses the entire 2.8k initial EB2-I allocation in October 2014 to approve some of the cases that could not be approved in FY2014.

Under the above conditions, there would be no available SO for EB2-I and all visa numbers would have been used in October 2014 / by cases still current from November 2014 onwards.

Movement beyond 01MAY09 would not be possible.

If PERM certifications do slow as has been suggested, then based on a halving of certification numbers in Q1-Q2 FY2015, around 6k FA might be available from EB2-ROW.

That would probably be sufficient to move the COD beyond 01MAY09 at the end of FY2015.

It's also possible that the EB1 approvals will settle down to a more "normal" level.

As I said, it really is too early to make a sensible prediction at this time.

I have updated my predictions on the first page.

[iatiam]

gcvijay,

Welcome to the forum. No question is stupid and yours certainly is not.

I'll give my thoughts, but they are subject to change as more data becomes available on FY2014 use. Other people may have an entirely different (or opposite viewpoint).

In the worst case scenario:

a) No spare FB visas available in FY2015.

b) EB1 uses their allocation plus any Fall Up from EB4.

c) EB5 uses their allocation.

d) EB2-ROW uses their allocation. If Q4 FY2014 PERM certifications continue at the same rate in Q1-Q2 FY2015, that is a likely scenario.

e) CO uses the entire 2.8k initial EB2-I allocation in October 2014 to approve some of the cases that could not be approved in FY2014.

Under the above conditions, there would be no available SO for EB2-I and all visa numbers would have been used in October 2014 / by cases still current from November 2014 onwards.

Movement beyond 01MAY09 would not be possible.

If PERM certifications do slow as has been suggested, then based on a halving of certification numbers in Q1-Q2 FY2015, around 6k FA might be available from EB2-ROW.

That would probably be sufficient to move the COD beyond 01MAY09 at the end of FY2015.

It's also possible that the EB1 approvals will settle down to a more "normal" level.

As I said, it really is too early to make a sensible prediction at this time.

I have updated my predictions on the first page.

Spec,

Thats depressing. Other than the selfish motive of getting greened next year (PD: Aug 2009), I was also hoping that the dates would move beyond Mar 2010 to build inventory. What do you think the porting would be? Now that a lot of people have ported, would it not slow down and provide some relief to EB2I.

Iatiam

[vizcard]

Spec,

Thats depressing. Other than the selfish motive of getting greened next year (PD: Aug 2009), I was also hoping that the dates would move beyond Mar 2010 to build inventory. What do you think the porting would be? Now that a lot of people have ported, would it not slow down and provide some relief to EB2I.

Iatiam

I'll give you my view on porting. Porting is a continuous phenomenon. Think about it this way (simplistic). Bare minimum to port is 5 yrs experience. So people who ported in 2014 had to have started working in 2009 or earlier. So now that we move to 2015, you will get a new year's worth of people (2009-2010) eligible for porting. Will the numbers reduce - personally I don't think so. The underlying dynamics for EB3 haven't changed so there is no reason to expect resulting behaviors to change.

Just my opinion.

[qesehmk]

Yes ... agree w Viz. Portings wouldn't change drastically year over year. Having said that it is not unreasonable to expect portings to increase from one year to next. As time goes by more and more EB3 folks gain seniority and influence in the company to request refiling in EB2. Even if you assume increase is 10% .. that's still 300-500 extra numbers we are talking about.

[gc4a_k]

I opened SR and to which they mentioned visa is available and requested my case for reveiw and i should hear something from them in 90 days. Also contacted congresman and yet to hear from them. When i contacted l2 they mentioned that no one has assined to my case. I dont know whats wrong with my case...

If some thing is wrong then I should not have even got RFE right but I got it and responded back in july and patiently waiting since then.. do you have any suggestions?

hi,

hang in there. you shld get gc soon. my pd is 24 march 2009, rferr was 11 jul, 2014. raised eSR on 4th sept (couldn't wait for 60 days) spoke with l1 on 10th sept, she was kind enough to transfer me to L2, however l2 said that he cannot give me any info as I had already raised eSR and told me to wait till 19th sept. finally got cpo email yesterday. I think L2 wont say anything if they know you have raised SR. that's my 2 cents. hope you get GC soooon.

Q,Spec,Viz,Sports,kamani etc thanks a ton for all the help/analysis which helped me preserve my sanity.

[saagar_is_cool]

gcvijay,

Welcome to the forum. No question is stupid and yours certainly is not.

I'll give my thoughts, but they are subject to change as more data becomes available on FY2014 use. Other people may have an entirely different (or opposite viewpoint).

In the worst case scenario:

a) No spare FB visas available in FY2015.

b) EB1 uses their allocation plus any Fall Up from EB4.

c) EB5 uses their allocation.

d) EB2-ROW uses their allocation. If Q4 FY2014 PERM certifications continue at the same rate in Q1-Q2 FY2015, that is a likely scenario.

e) CO uses the entire 2.8k initial EB2-I allocation in October 2014 to approve some of the cases that could not be approved in FY2014.

Under the above conditions, there would be no available SO for EB2-I and all visa numbers would have been used in October 2014 / by cases still current from November 2014 onwards.

Movement beyond 01MAY09 would not be possible.

If PERM certifications do slow as has been suggested, then based on a halving of certification numbers in Q1-Q2 FY2015, around 6k FA might be available from EB2-ROW.

That would probably be sufficient to move the COD beyond 01MAY09 at the end of FY2015.

It's also possible that the EB1 approvals will settle down to a more "normal" level.

As I said, it really is too early to make a sensible prediction at this time.

I have updated my predictions on the first page.

Spec,

Does that mean that even in the worst case scenario, the date will come back to May 1 2009 next year in the last quarter also (July to Sep 2015). I ask because my PD is in April 2009 and I am a first time filer this year. I filed on Sep 2 itself and have receipt notices. But I think there is slim to none chance of getting GC this year. In that case, will I still become current in last quarter of 2015 and get a GC next year.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Does that mean that even in the worst case scenario, the date will come back to May 1 2009 next year in the last quarter also (July to Sep 2015). I ask because my PD is in April 2009 and I am a first time filer this year. I filed on Sep 2 itself and have receipt notices. But I think there is slim to none chance of getting GC this year. In that case, will I still become current in last quarter of 2015 and get a GC next year.

saagar,

I really don't want to speculate further until a new Inventory is published.

Only then will we have a sufficient grasp of the numbers falling into FY2015.

Since I believe the data in the Inventory lags the published date by several weeks, it may not be until the Jan Inventory that the picture becomes clear. By that time, the PERM Certification rate in FY2015 will also be clearer and we will also know if EB has received any extra allocation from FB around that time.

[iatiam]

I think even in the absolute worst case scenario, the date "at least" advances to May 1, 2009. The reason is that PERM slowdown is made official and most PERM cases from India (and especially those from the upgrade requests) will be caught in the audit and spend close to 2 years there. It is also not unreasonable to expect EB1 to relent despite the gloom and doom. I feel we should reach the end of 2009 by next year.

Amen to that. I know of cases where all the PERM cases in one particular company is in audit. I am sure there are several more cases like that. Also, the porting scenario is not as simple as what picture. I work in a non-IT field where porting a case is very very difficult. In my previous employer (Fortune 10 company) there were strict guidelines against porting. No matter which position you are in, they just won't relent. So a lot of my friends left them to go else where to get their cases ported. Now that's a selective phenomenon where there are plenty of jobs around that the new employer is willing to port. Things might be different in IT field, but I can't comment on that.

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

I agree w Sports IATIAM and others in terms of minimum movement.

However I wouldn't ignore Spec's analysis. I 100% agree with him on EB1 EB5. Where I may disagree a bit is EB2ROW. I believe EB2ROW may not be in as bad shape as Spec suggests. However if EB2ROW PERMs pick up speed then I say Spec is going to be 100% on the money and EB2I has no chance next year.

[anuprab]

Amen to that. I know of cases where all the PERM cases in one particular company is in audit. I am sure there are several more cases like that. Also, the porting scenario is not as simple as what picture. I work in a non-IT field where porting a case is very very difficult. In my previous employer (Fortune 10 company) there were strict guidelines against porting. No matter which position you are in, they just won't relent. So a lot of my friends left them to go else where to get their cases ported. Now that's a selective phenomenon where there are plenty of jobs around that the new employer is willing to port. Things might be different in IT field, but I can't comment on that.

Iatiam

my future looks bleak on this note. As you said I am in finance and porting is very very tough. My husband's is stuck in Eb2 May 2010 date so have been patiently waiting for dates to come to that and there is nothing we both can do about this whole system. Just hoping against hope BO does some executive relief for the legals!

[Spectator]

I agree w Sports IATIAM and others in terms of minimum movement.

However I wouldn't ignore Spec's analysis. I 100% agree with him on EB1 EB5. Where I may disagree a bit is EB2ROW. I believe EB2ROW may not be in as bad shape as Spec suggests. However if EB2ROW PERMs pick up speed then I say Spec is going to be 100% on the money and EB2I has no chance next year.

Q,

To be clear, I have presented the worst case. It is not impossible, but probably unlikely. There are some tailwinds from that worst scenario (the something always happens to save EB2-I effect).

Some of the FY2015 demand from EB2-ROW is already baked in due to PERM approvals in Q3/Q4 FY2014. Overall, I expect to see a PERM slowdown, as announced by DOL, which will allow EB2-I to end FY2015 with a COD in Q4 2009.

Before committing to that, I would like to see evidence that such a slowdown is sustained and the extent of carry through of EB2-I cases to FY2015.

I would also like to understand whether the EB1 trend from FY2014 continues into FY2015.

I hope that makes my thoughts clearer and allays some fears that people may have as a result of my previous post.

[qesehmk]

I hope that makes my thoughts clearer and allays some fears that people may have as a result of my previous post.

That's nice of you Spec. Although pessimistic - I do take that scenario seriously. The PERM slowdown has already happened. But at some point of time they will have to clear that backlog too. So make the hay while sun shines - as they say. In other words EB2I can be happy until then. If calendar 2014 ends with the same PERM rate as prior 3 quarters then USCIS year 2015 is going to be decent for EB2I.

As per EB1 - I am quite pessimistic there. They are not affected by PERMs. So fundamentally I don't see anything changing there (as of now) and so I think (exactly as you said) they are going to eat up their own quota and some more.

[Spectator]

On the subject of PERM, the latest fact sheet was released recently.

Despite the improvement in processing times, the overall backlog is not reducing and remains at a very high level compared to previous periods.


------------ Q1 ------- Q2 ------- Q3 ------- Q4
FY2012 --- 20,900 --- 27,200 --- 28,400 --- 22,900
FY2013 --- 29,344 ---- N/A ------ N/A ------ N/A
FY2014 ---- N/A ----- 58,530 --- 55,427 --- 58,337

DOL did not supply the backlog figure from Q2 FY2013 to Q1 FY2014.
Q4 FY2014 figures are to the end of August.

If the PERM processing times double, I can't even begin to guess at the level the backlog will reach.