EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

I have the following doubts ........

Do all Row population start their GC ( initiate to start ) in their first year of H1b?

Is there any correlation between low H1b quota usage and Spillover within the same year ?

If they start in 1st year, it will be most likely EB3
Generally companies (non consulting and most of the ROW is not into that) take 2 years time to start the process, The co-relation between h1b quota and EB exists for India (for new filings)

[bieber]

Just curious to know if there is any chance of EB2 being current temporarily in the near future?

Highly unlikely, miracle needed

[soggadu]

Just curious to know if there is any chance of EB2 being current temporarily in the near future?

I am very positive that Eb2 wont be current anytime soon. Once 2007 backlog is cleared Eb2 still has lot of applications to deal with. Going into next year the SOFAD itself will be less and it is all about Sustained movement going forward with a possibility of STM ( short temp movements, <1 yr is short ) as needed...

[soggadu]

Soggadu I too like your sense of humour
But can't follow u in Hindi , add eng version also pls

JJ bhai... i will note this point going forward...

[nishant2200]

I am very positive that Eb2 wont be current anytime soon. Once 2007 backlog is cleared Eb2 still has lot of applications to deal with. Going into next year the SOFAD itself will be less and it is all about Sustained movement going forward with a possibility of STM ( short temp movements, <1 yr is short ) as needed...

Very well summarized. I agree.

[soggadu]

I have the following doubts ........

Do all Row population start their GC ( initiate to start ) in their first year of H1b?

Is there any correlation between low H1b quota usage and Spillover within the same year ?

i dont think spillover from Eb1/EB2 ROW = Less number of H1B used by those categories... even if they apply for 485 in their first year... It is happening because of new rules applied for approving 140's and pending 140's...

[Spectator]

Spec your table is good. Might be a good idea to copy paste in the header if you wish so. Would also be helpful since somebody complained about noise to signal ratio - so that if somebody is not interested in general discussion / personal stories or whatevere tehy can go to either header or FACTS section.

Q,

It exceeded the maximum character count when I tried to put it in the header, so I have put it in FACTS & DATA http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...r-Cut-Off-Date

[grnwtg]

If they start in 1st year, it will be most likely EB3
Generally companies (non consulting and most of the ROW is not into that) take 2 years time to start the process, The co-relation between h1b quota and EB exists for India (for new filings)

I heard of lot of Russian origin/Pakistan origin/other european origin consulting companies acting like Desi consultancies.
Some of them probably might start GC process in 1 year.
But i am not sure how many people apply GC from these companies.

[nayekal]

Q, Good to see that site is back up and running.
What caused this issue. Can it be prevented or can the down time be reduced in the future if similar problem arises.

I am not sure it happened to any one else, but I got DB Error until last 10 minutes.

[qesehmk]

i think its the hosting service. it happened 2 weeks back too.

Q, Good to see that site is back up and running.
What caused this issue. Can it be prevented or can the down time be reduced in the future if similar problem arises.

I am not sure it happened to any one else, but I got DB Error until last 10 minutes.

[nishant2200]

It might be a software upgrade. I noticed that for first time, when I clicked on thread main link, it took me directly to the last page last post I had last looked at

Powered by vBulletin™ Version 4.0.6

was it less than 4.0.6 earlier, don't know.

or maybe it's always been like this, and I never noticed.

[leo07]

I agree. CIS/DOS being Govt orgs, open to questions from congress and other groups alike, would want to do SFM.

Next question is: What might be SFM

Remaining sofad for EB2IC + 3800??

Remaining sofad for September, depending on who you ask is ranging from 3k - 10k on the forum.

so is it decent enough to define SFM(Sustainable Forward Movement) as: 6.8k to 13.8k worth of movement?

Best!

Leo ... while that is true, my judgement is that DoS' preference is to do SFM in general. Its possible they will make BTM as well - but as I said ... given how they have tried to establish visibility and coordination with USCIS ... SFM goes better with the DoS policy implementation.

[srimurthy]

The site was down and even I could not access, great its back up now.

********
Jun 2011
Year --EB1 ---EB2C ---EB2I --EB2ROW ---EB3C ---EB3I --EB3M ---EB3P --EB3ROW
2002 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 ------0 -----25 -----0 ------0 -------0
2003 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 -----25 --6,900 -----0 ------0 ------50
2004 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 -----50 -19,000 ----25 -----25 ------75
2005 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 --2,075 -33,050 ---550 -----50 -----100
2006 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 --3,800 -42,125 -1,925 --2,725 ---9,200
2007 ----0 --3,675 -10,425 -------0 --5,000 -53,250 -3,725 -15,300 --30,550
2008 ----0 --9,200 -20,225 -------0 ------- ------- ------ ------- --------
2011 ----0 --9,250 -20,350 -----125 --5,550 -57,450 -4,550 -17,775 --38,650

**********
One Q, in the facts and data for the demand data present it shows no data for 2009 and 2010. Just captured the June details. Doesn't that reflect the right picture and there is no demand for EB2 or EB3 during this period or was it a miss? As earlier 2010 data shows there was demand for 2010 and not for 2009.

Does it imply people applying in 2011 will have less wait time?

[qesehmk]

Good question. What is SFM.
For us SFM is one that never retrogresses. However DoS is nearing the Aug 2007 cliff and must replenish inventory. Theoretically they may progress a month or two each month. However, I do not know if that is their preference.

What CO seems to have said is that (not hist exact words) - movememnt would be necessary generate enough demand equivalent to next years' possible visa availability. So yes its possible that he will do a quick BTM and then keep moving VB date slowly. The BTM could be upto 1 yr or 1.5 yrs. It seems highly unlikely that they will make it C.

I agree. CIS/DOS being Govt orgs, open to questions from congress and other groups alike, would want to do SFM.

Next question is: What might be SFM

Remaining sofad for EB2IC + 3800??

Remaining sofad for September, depending on who you ask is ranging from 3k - 10k on the forum.

so is it decent enough to define SFM(Sustainable Forward Movement) as: 6.8k to 13.8k worth of movement?

Best!

[leo07]

I agree that C is ruled out. BTM, not so sure about it. Because, internally they may not talk/refer in terms of year(s) movement but look at the Demand & supply instead.

Thanks for rephrasing CO,it definitely implies SFM. Assuming replenishing visas as Not their priority, because without sufficient ammo to backup they could be in trouble, what do you think SFM would be in terms of visa numbers? ( or a formula )

Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head
In that sense SFM

Good question. What is SFM.
For us SFM is one that never retrogresses. However DoS is nearing the Aug 2007 cliff and must replenish inventory. Theoretically they may progress a month or two each month. However, I do not know if that is their preference.

What CO seems to have said is that (not hist exact words) - movememnt would be necessary generate enough demand equivalent to next years' possible visa availability. So yes its possible that he will do a quick BTM and then keep moving VB date slowly. The BTM could be upto 1 yr or 1.5 yrs. It seems highly unlikely that they will make it C.

[qesehmk]

Leo .... SFM would be different at different time. During normal months it would be either zero or a few weeks. During spillover season it would be 2-3-4-6 months.

The quote was mentioned in one of those chinese webpages.

I agree that C is ruled out. BTM, not so sure about it. Because, internally they may not talk/refer in terms of year(s) movement but look at the Demand & supply instead.

Thanks for rephrasing CO,it definitely implies SFM. Assuming replenishing visas as Not their priority, because without sufficient ammo to backup they could be in trouble, what do you think SFM would be in terms of visa numbers? ( or a formula )

Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head
In that sense SFM

[Spectator]

Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head

Leo,

The quote is on something like page 182 here and originally on mitbbs.com

Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that

Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur.

I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs.

That information will then be compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

[nishant2200]

Leo .... SFM would be different at different time. During normal months it would be either zero or a few weeks. During spillover season it would be 2-3-4-6 months.

The quote was mentioned in one of those chinese webpages.

An important thing to keep in mind is SFM with pre-adjudicated apps vs SFM with new apps which have not even made in yet. I think you can never have SFM with new apps scenario, there will always be a BTM, the amount of big we don't know.

[nayekal]

Irrespective of whether it is SFM or BTM, irrespective of what CO says right now, they are supposed to take fresh I485 apps for EB2I&C until Dec 2007 before Dec 2011.
Otherwise, they will be at a loss of not being able assign visa numbers for any kind of spill over for next FY 2012.
By taking new apps by Dec 2011, they will have enough time to process them (4-6 months duration) and be ready to assign visa numbers. If they don't do it right now and if SOFAD is close to 15 - 20 k, then there is a greater possibility of spill over to EB3, which is not that bad, but will eventually force them to make EB2I&C current against their own wishes. If that's what they have to do next year, then why not do it right now.

[vizcard]

Nishant
It may be semantics but SFM implies that there won't be retrogression (as I understand it). So it could work for new applications as well.

Q- maybe you can correct me but as I understand
SFM = Small move (1Q at a time?) -> Hold -> Adjudicate
BTM = Major move (a year at a time?) -> Retrogress -> Adjudicate

[leo07]

Spec, Thanks for the link. I also agree that SFM would vary depending on the time-frame we are looking at. my question is more related to the last month of fy, more like stemming from CO's quote.

An important thing to keep in mind is SFM with pre-adjudicated apps vs SFM with new apps which have not even made in yet. I think you can never have SFM with new apps scenario, there will always be a BTM, the amount of big we don't know.

Nishanth, if we keep the reference as 'numbers' available as opposed to monthly movement, then pre-adj or not does not matter. We can add that filter on top, if need be. But, in general, I agree that Pre-Adj matters for dates-movement. I'm more talking about visa-numbers being available...

The quote is on something like page 182 here and originally on mitbbs.com

[nishant2200]

Nishant
It may be semantics but SFM implies that there won't be retrogression (as I understand it). So it could work for new applications as well.

Q- maybe you can correct me but as I understand
SFM = Small move (1Q at a time?) -> Hold -> Adjudicate
BTM = Major move (a year at a time?) -> Retrogress -> Adjudicate

If the small move is 1Q, then I may agree with you. I was thinking more on lines of 4-5 weeks which would just not give them enough ammo to work with. It maybe possible. And the only reason why they would do that I think is because of communication between DOS and USCIS, and USCIS not ready to accept a swarm of applications. In 2007, since there was lack of communication, we know what DOS did. They made it current.

I have been trying to read CO's words for the umpteenth time, to try to see what's going on in his mind. And frankly, it goes one way or the other. Sometimes I think he means go for a year, grab and retrogress, but this is what I think with heart, with mind when I think, I feel he will more likely to do in batches of few months and see how goes. Like 1Q as you said.

ps: hopefully its 2Q and I can get in

[vizcard]

If the small move is 1Q, then I may agree with you. I was thinking more on lines of 4-5 weeks which would just not give them enough ammo to work with. It maybe possible. And the only reason why they would do that I think is because of communication between DOS and USCIS, and USCIS not ready to accept a swarm of applications. In 2007, since there was lack of communication, we know what DOS did. They made it current.

I have been trying to read CO's words for the umpteenth time, to try to see what's going on in his mind. And frankly, it goes one way or the other. Sometimes I think he means go for a year, grab and retrogress, but this is what I think with heart, with mind when I think, I feel he will more likely to do in batches of few months and see how goes. Like 1Q as you said.

ps: hopefully its 2Q and I can get in

I'm hoping its till Aug 22 2008 ....... so I can get in

[RRRRRR]

Hi Q,SPEC,T & Others

I have been following this forum and appreciate all the hard work put in by you guys. Thanks for all the information & Calculations you have been providing regarding the GC Process....

Thanks

[nishant2200]

Spec, Thanks for the link. I also agree that SFM would vary depending on the time-frame we are looking at. my question is more related to the last month of fy, more like stemming from CO's quote.




Nishanth, if we keep the reference as 'numbers' available as opposed to monthly movement, then pre-adj or not does not matter. We can add that filter on top, if need be. But, in general, I agree that Pre-Adj matters for dates-movement. I'm more talking about visa-numbers being available...

Leo, let us know your thoughts on what you interpret when CO says, " the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012,". Will he base that on the SOFAD this year, will he drill down to factors like backlog of EB1, EB2 ROW, economy improvement signals, increased 140 filings. I am trying to think on this sentence by CO a lot, it's a very important one.

The wordings of the quotes by CO, frankly, speaking, look quite genuine, and sound as if they would come from a important guarded official. thanks to our chinese friends.