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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #4626
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    I have the following doubts ........

    Do all Row population start their GC ( initiate to start ) in their first year of H1b?

    Is there any correlation between low H1b quota usage and Spillover within the same year ?
    If they start in 1st year, it will be most likely EB3
    Generally companies (non consulting and most of the ROW is not into that) take 2 years time to start the process, The co-relation between h1b quota and EB exists for India (for new filings)

  2. #4627
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Just curious to know if there is any chance of EB2 being current temporarily in the near future?
    Highly unlikely, miracle needed

  3. #4628
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Just curious to know if there is any chance of EB2 being current temporarily in the near future?
    I am very positive that Eb2 wont be current anytime soon. Once 2007 backlog is cleared Eb2 still has lot of applications to deal with. Going into next year the SOFAD itself will be less and it is all about Sustained movement going forward with a possibility of STM ( short temp movements, <1 yr is short ) as needed...
    http://youtu.be/h0b5VGrKVG4 -- GC Journey in KOLAVERI Song!!!!!

  4. #4629
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Soggadu I too like your sense of humour
    But can't follow u in Hindi , add eng version also pls
    JJ bhai... i will note this point going forward...
    http://youtu.be/h0b5VGrKVG4 -- GC Journey in KOLAVERI Song!!!!!

  5. #4630
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    I am very positive that Eb2 wont be current anytime soon. Once 2007 backlog is cleared Eb2 still has lot of applications to deal with. Going into next year the SOFAD itself will be less and it is all about Sustained movement going forward with a possibility of STM ( short temp movements, <1 yr is short ) as needed...
    Very well summarized. I agree.

  6. #4631
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    I have the following doubts ........

    Do all Row population start their GC ( initiate to start ) in their first year of H1b?

    Is there any correlation between low H1b quota usage and Spillover within the same year ?
    i dont think spillover from Eb1/EB2 ROW = Less number of H1B used by those categories... even if they apply for 485 in their first year... It is happening because of new rules applied for approving 140's and pending 140's...
    http://youtu.be/h0b5VGrKVG4 -- GC Journey in KOLAVERI Song!!!!!

  7. #4632
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Spec your table is good. Might be a good idea to copy paste in the header if you wish so. Would also be helpful since somebody complained about noise to signal ratio - so that if somebody is not interested in general discussion / personal stories or whatevere tehy can go to either header or FACTS section.
    Q,

    It exceeded the maximum character count when I tried to put it in the header, so I have put it in FACTS & DATA http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...r-Cut-Off-Date
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  8. #4633
    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    If they start in 1st year, it will be most likely EB3
    Generally companies (non consulting and most of the ROW is not into that) take 2 years time to start the process, The co-relation between h1b quota and EB exists for India (for new filings)
    I heard of lot of Russian origin/Pakistan origin/other european origin consulting companies acting like Desi consultancies.
    Some of them probably might start GC process in 1 year.
    But i am not sure how many people apply GC from these companies.

  9. #4634

    Site is up and running

    Q, Good to see that site is back up and running.
    What caused this issue. Can it be prevented or can the down time be reduced in the future if similar problem arises.

    I am not sure it happened to any one else, but I got DB Error until last 10 minutes.

  10. #4635
    i think its the hosting service. it happened 2 weeks back too.

    Quote Originally Posted by nayekal View Post
    Q, Good to see that site is back up and running.
    What caused this issue. Can it be prevented or can the down time be reduced in the future if similar problem arises.

    I am not sure it happened to any one else, but I got DB Error until last 10 minutes.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #4636
    It might be a software upgrade. I noticed that for first time, when I clicked on thread main link, it took me directly to the last page last post I had last looked at

    Powered by vBulletin™ Version 4.0.6

    was it less than 4.0.6 earlier, don't know.

    or maybe it's always been like this, and I never noticed.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 07-20-2011 at 01:04 PM.

  12. #4637

    Post SFM is what I meant...

    I agree. CIS/DOS being Govt orgs, open to questions from congress and other groups alike, would want to do SFM.

    Next question is: What might be SFM

    Remaining sofad for EB2IC + 3800??

    Remaining sofad for September, depending on who you ask is ranging from 3k - 10k on the forum.

    so is it decent enough to define SFM(Sustainable Forward Movement) as: 6.8k to 13.8k worth of movement?

    Best!


    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Leo ... while that is true, my judgement is that DoS' preference is to do SFM in general. Its possible they will make BTM as well - but as I said ... given how they have tried to establish visibility and coordination with USCIS ... SFM goes better with the DoS policy implementation.

  13. #4638
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    The site was down and even I could not access, great its back up now.

    ********
    Jun 2011
    Year --EB1 ---EB2C ---EB2I --EB2ROW ---EB3C ---EB3I --EB3M ---EB3P --EB3ROW
    2002 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 ------0 -----25 -----0 ------0 -------0
    2003 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 -----25 --6,900 -----0 ------0 ------50
    2004 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 -----50 -19,000 ----25 -----25 ------75
    2005 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 --2,075 -33,050 ---550 -----50 -----100
    2006 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 --3,800 -42,125 -1,925 --2,725 ---9,200
    2007 ----0 --3,675 -10,425 -------0 --5,000 -53,250 -3,725 -15,300 --30,550
    2008 ----0 --9,200 -20,225 -------0 ------- ------- ------ ------- --------
    2011 ----0 --9,250 -20,350 -----125 --5,550 -57,450 -4,550 -17,775 --38,650

    **********
    One Q, in the facts and data for the demand data present it shows no data for 2009 and 2010. Just captured the June details. Doesn't that reflect the right picture and there is no demand for EB2 or EB3 during this period or was it a miss? As earlier 2010 data shows there was demand for 2010 and not for 2009.

    Does it imply people applying in 2011 will have less wait time?

  14. #4639
    Good question. What is SFM.
    For us SFM is one that never retrogresses. However DoS is nearing the Aug 2007 cliff and must replenish inventory. Theoretically they may progress a month or two each month. However, I do not know if that is their preference.

    What CO seems to have said is that (not hist exact words) - movememnt would be necessary generate enough demand equivalent to next years' possible visa availability. So yes its possible that he will do a quick BTM and then keep moving VB date slowly. The BTM could be upto 1 yr or 1.5 yrs. It seems highly unlikely that they will make it C.

    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    I agree. CIS/DOS being Govt orgs, open to questions from congress and other groups alike, would want to do SFM.

    Next question is: What might be SFM

    Remaining sofad for EB2IC + 3800??

    Remaining sofad for September, depending on who you ask is ranging from 3k - 10k on the forum.

    so is it decent enough to define SFM(Sustainable Forward Movement) as: 6.8k to 13.8k worth of movement?

    Best!
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  15. #4640

    Post I agree...

    I agree that C is ruled out. BTM, not so sure about it. Because, internally they may not talk/refer in terms of year(s) movement but look at the Demand & supply instead.

    Thanks for rephrasing CO,it definitely implies SFM. Assuming replenishing visas as Not their priority, because without sufficient ammo to backup they could be in trouble, what do you think SFM would be in terms of visa numbers? ( or a formula )

    Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head
    In that sense SFM
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Good question. What is SFM.
    For us SFM is one that never retrogresses. However DoS is nearing the Aug 2007 cliff and must replenish inventory. Theoretically they may progress a month or two each month. However, I do not know if that is their preference.

    What CO seems to have said is that (not hist exact words) - movememnt would be necessary generate enough demand equivalent to next years' possible visa availability. So yes its possible that he will do a quick BTM and then keep moving VB date slowly. The BTM could be upto 1 yr or 1.5 yrs. It seems highly unlikely that they will make it C.

  16. #4641
    Leo .... SFM would be different at different time. During normal months it would be either zero or a few weeks. During spillover season it would be 2-3-4-6 months.

    The quote was mentioned in one of those chinese webpages.
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    I agree that C is ruled out. BTM, not so sure about it. Because, internally they may not talk/refer in terms of year(s) movement but look at the Demand & supply instead.

    Thanks for rephrasing CO,it definitely implies SFM. Assuming replenishing visas as Not their priority, because without sufficient ammo to backup they could be in trouble, what do you think SFM would be in terms of visa numbers? ( or a formula )

    Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head
    In that sense SFM
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  17. #4642
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    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head
    Leo,

    The quote is on something like page 182 here and originally on mitbbs.com

    Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that

    Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur.

    I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs.

    That information will then be compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  18. #4643
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Leo .... SFM would be different at different time. During normal months it would be either zero or a few weeks. During spillover season it would be 2-3-4-6 months.

    The quote was mentioned in one of those chinese webpages.
    An important thing to keep in mind is SFM with pre-adjudicated apps vs SFM with new apps which have not even made in yet. I think you can never have SFM with new apps scenario, there will always be a BTM, the amount of big we don't know.

  19. #4644
    Irrespective of whether it is SFM or BTM, irrespective of what CO says right now, they are supposed to take fresh I485 apps for EB2I&C until Dec 2007 before Dec 2011.
    Otherwise, they will be at a loss of not being able assign visa numbers for any kind of spill over for next FY 2012.
    By taking new apps by Dec 2011, they will have enough time to process them (4-6 months duration) and be ready to assign visa numbers. If they don't do it right now and if SOFAD is close to 15 - 20 k, then there is a greater possibility of spill over to EB3, which is not that bad, but will eventually force them to make EB2I&C current against their own wishes. If that's what they have to do next year, then why not do it right now.

  20. #4645
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    Nishant
    It may be semantics but SFM implies that there won't be retrogression (as I understand it). So it could work for new applications as well.

    Q- maybe you can correct me but as I understand
    SFM = Small move (1Q at a time?) -> Hold -> Adjudicate
    BTM = Major move (a year at a time?) -> Retrogress -> Adjudicate

  21. #4646

    Post Thanks Spec & Nishanth

    Spec, Thanks for the link. I also agree that SFM would vary depending on the time-frame we are looking at. my question is more related to the last month of fy, more like stemming from CO's quote.


    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    An important thing to keep in mind is SFM with pre-adjudicated apps vs SFM with new apps which have not even made in yet. I think you can never have SFM with new apps scenario, there will always be a BTM, the amount of big we don't know.
    Nishanth, if we keep the reference as 'numbers' available as opposed to monthly movement, then pre-adj or not does not matter. We can add that filter on top, if need be. But, in general, I agree that Pre-Adj matters for dates-movement. I'm more talking about visa-numbers being available...

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The quote is on something like page 182 here and originally on mitbbs.com

  22. #4647
    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    Nishant
    It may be semantics but SFM implies that there won't be retrogression (as I understand it). So it could work for new applications as well.

    Q- maybe you can correct me but as I understand
    SFM = Small move (1Q at a time?) -> Hold -> Adjudicate
    BTM = Major move (a year at a time?) -> Retrogress -> Adjudicate
    If the small move is 1Q, then I may agree with you. I was thinking more on lines of 4-5 weeks which would just not give them enough ammo to work with. It maybe possible. And the only reason why they would do that I think is because of communication between DOS and USCIS, and USCIS not ready to accept a swarm of applications. In 2007, since there was lack of communication, we know what DOS did. They made it current.

    I have been trying to read CO's words for the umpteenth time, to try to see what's going on in his mind. And frankly, it goes one way or the other. Sometimes I think he means go for a year, grab and retrogress, but this is what I think with heart, with mind when I think, I feel he will more likely to do in batches of few months and see how goes. Like 1Q as you said.

    ps: hopefully its 2Q and I can get in

  23. #4648
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    If the small move is 1Q, then I may agree with you. I was thinking more on lines of 4-5 weeks which would just not give them enough ammo to work with. It maybe possible. And the only reason why they would do that I think is because of communication between DOS and USCIS, and USCIS not ready to accept a swarm of applications. In 2007, since there was lack of communication, we know what DOS did. They made it current.

    I have been trying to read CO's words for the umpteenth time, to try to see what's going on in his mind. And frankly, it goes one way or the other. Sometimes I think he means go for a year, grab and retrogress, but this is what I think with heart, with mind when I think, I feel he will more likely to do in batches of few months and see how goes. Like 1Q as you said.

    ps: hopefully its 2Q and I can get in
    I'm hoping its till Aug 22 2008 ....... so I can get in

  24. #4649
    Hi Q,SPEC,T & Others

    I have been following this forum and appreciate all the hard work put in by you guys. Thanks for all the information & Calculations you have been providing regarding the GC Process....

    Thanks

  25. #4650
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Spec, Thanks for the link. I also agree that SFM would vary depending on the time-frame we are looking at. my question is more related to the last month of fy, more like stemming from CO's quote.




    Nishanth, if we keep the reference as 'numbers' available as opposed to monthly movement, then pre-adj or not does not matter. We can add that filter on top, if need be. But, in general, I agree that Pre-Adj matters for dates-movement. I'm more talking about visa-numbers being available...
    Leo, let us know your thoughts on what you interpret when CO says, " the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012,". Will he base that on the SOFAD this year, will he drill down to factors like backlog of EB1, EB2 ROW, economy improvement signals, increased 140 filings. I am trying to think on this sentence by CO a lot, it's a very important one.

    The wordings of the quotes by CO, frankly, speaking, look quite genuine, and sound as if they would come from a important guarded official. thanks to our chinese friends.

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