EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Monica12]

i know i shouldnt keep my hopes high... hope it reach Apr 15 and more atleast... a very good friend of mine needs it more than me as of now...

P.S. N bhai... you are no less than guru...

Nishant, you are doing a tremendous job , dude! Thank you!
Soggadu, Please make that May 1, 2007. Oops ! sorry, we have a friend here who is keeping note of everyone who mentions that date, so let's make it atleast June,2007
But buddy, for you we will wish for November, 2007

[nishant2200]

Nishant, you are doing a tremendous job , dude! Thank you!
Soggadu, Please make that May 1, 2007. Oops ! sorry, we have a friend here who is keeping note of everyone who mentions that date, so let's make it atleast June,2007
But buddy, for you we will wish for November, 2007

ELROND: Andúril, Flame of the West, forged from the Shards of Narsil.
ARAGORN: Sauron will not have forgotten the Sword of Elendil. The blade that was broken shall return to Minas Tirith.

ELROND: The man who can wield the power of this sword can summon to him an army more deadly than any that walks this earth. Put aside the Ranger. Become who you were born to be. Take the Dimholt road.

ELROND: Ónen i-Estel Edain. (I give hope to Men)

ARAGORN: Ú-chebin estel anim. (I keep none for myself.)

[leo07]

Someone correct me,
If Dates were to move from
April 15th to June 15th 2007++++++++~2800 additional visas are needed/
to July 1st 2007+++++++++++++++++~3400 additional visa numbers are needed
to August 1st 2007++++++++++++++~5000

[soggadu]

Someone correct me,
If Dates were to move from
April 15th to June 15th 2007++++++++~2800 additional visas are needed/
to July 1st 2007+++++++++++++++++~3400 additional visa numbers are needed
to August 1st 2007++++++++++++++~5000

leo in the previous page spec has given the numbers for each month and scenario...

[soggadu]

nishant, you are doing a tremendous job , dude! Thank you!
Soggadu, please make that may 1, 2007. Oops ! Sorry, we have a friend here who is keeping note of everyone who mentions that date, so let's make it atleast june,2007
but buddy, for you we will wish for november, 2007

amen amen amen

[leo07]

Thanks. How did I miss that --but my numbers are little off...I trust Spec more than self at this point

leo in the previous page spec has given the numbers for each month and scenario...

[03May07]

Nishant, you are doing a tremendous job , dude! Thank you!
Soggadu, Please make that May 1, 2007. Oops ! sorry, we have a friend here who is keeping note of everyone who mentions that date, so let's make it atleast June,2007
But buddy, for you we will wish for November, 2007

Yup, very much here!! I read every post, refreshing every few minutes, although not logged in all the time. I'm one of those guests who is lurking around most of the time.

Spec's data posted a little while ago, is keeping my hopes alive for this FY. (I promised myself that I will not get disappointed whatever the cut off date might be in Sept Bulletin)

Q must be really busy today trying to meet his/her project deadline at work.

[Monica12]

Yup, very much here!! I read every post, refreshing every few minutes, although not logged in all the time. I'm one of those guests who is lurking around most of the time.

Spec's data posted a little while ago, is keeping my hopes alive for this FY. (I promised myself that I will not get disappointed whatever the cut off date might be in Sept Bulletin)

Q must be really busy today trying to meet his/her project deadline at work.

Hey 03May07, we missed you. Bet you were secretly making note of everyone who mentioned May 1,2007.
Dude, my date is near yours and I sincerely wish we get current (electric) soon!
Yes, Q is away so we can play....

[imechanix]

Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.

Spec,

Thanks, this is useful info.

Qs. Does the PWMB numbers matter for CUD in next VB since it takes atleast few months to make it documentarily qualified & then added to the demand.

Thanks.

P.S: Recently noise-to-signal ratio in this thread is increasing unlike past.

[leo07]

If so, NO, PWMB's does not matter for for moving future cut-off dates. If there were PWMB's before April 15th, 2007, they'd obviously apply b/n August 1st through August 12th or whenever VB is released and that 10 days is not enough to make a dent.

Spec,

Thanks, this is useful info.

Qs. Does the PWMB numbers matter for CUD in next VB since it takes atleast few months to make it documentarily qualified & then added to the demand.

Thanks.

P.S: Recently noise-to-signal ratio in this thread is increasing unlike past.

[veni001]

I heard it from a very reliable source that USCIS wants to clear all the pending EB1/EB2 ROW before end of this FY...thats the main reason for the dismal show of Aug movement...

I heard this info last month itself and refused to believe till Aug. bulletin. So I dont have much hope for Sep. bulletin, if the same holds ture...

Unless the current i140 processing rate doubles, it is not a possibility. At the same time we may not have much SOFAD left for the remainder of FY.

[leo07]

It absolutely makes sense that CIS wants to clear all the EB1/2ROW back log. However, there are not enough of them, as per inventory data released along with August VB.

I appreciate your comment, it definitely will make us little more cautious.

I heard it from a very reliable source that USCIS wants to clear all the pending EB1/EB2 ROW before end of this FY...thats the main reason for the dismal show of Aug movement...

I heard this info last month itself and refused to believe till Aug. bulletin. So I dont have much hope for Sep. bulletin, if the same holds ture...

[leo07]

Exactly my point. I'm in a tight-spot, where my 140 is pending, I can't even hope that they process 140 faster

I have to write a complicated sql query to God in my prayers

Unless the current i140 processing rate doubles, it is not a possibility. At the same time we may not have much SOFAD left for the remainder of FY.

[ragx08]

P.S: Recently noise-to-signal ratio in this thread is increasing unlike past.

When the signal is not clear (not sure whats going to happen in Sep) and the noise is entertaining - lets enjoy it :-)

[ragx08]

Exactly my point. I'm in a tight-spot, where my 140 is pending, I can't even hope that they process 140 faster

I have to write a complicated sql query to God in my prayers

Don't make the query too complicated lest God takes his own time to process it - adding more delay :-)

[gchopeful123]

Hey Nishant,
Good to see that u are a LOTR fan as well. Here's what Eomer wud have said

“Look for BTM in SEP VB, but do not trust to hope for it has foresaken these lands.”
-- Eomer, The Two Towers

PS: now dont ask me why my username is gchopeful !!!

ELROND: Andúril, Flame of the West, forged from the Shards of Narsil.
ARAGORN: Sauron will not have forgotten the Sword of Elendil. The blade that was broken shall return to Minas Tirith.

ELROND: The man who can wield the power of this sword can summon to him an army more deadly than any that walks this earth. Put aside the Ranger. Become who you were born to be. Take the Dimholt road.

ELROND: Ónen i-Estel Edain. (I give hope to Men)

ARAGORN: Ú-chebin estel anim. (I keep none for myself.)

[nishant2200]

Hey Nishant,
Good to see that u are a LOTR fan as well. Here's what Eomer wud have said

“Look for BTM in SEP VB, but do not trust to hope for it has foresaken these lands.”
-- Eomer, The Two Towers

PS: now dont ask me why my username is gchopeful !!!

Touche!

Fearful of digressing more, Tolkien is my passion.

We all can relate though to the title of the first chapter of the LOTR saga: "A long awaited party"

Btw, my company lawyer says, he is very hopeful that next FY, dates will reach 12/2007. Kind of nothing extraordinary news, but thought would share.

[angryclubs]

my inbox has an email from uscis stating 485 application was approved yesterday. my new avatar reflects my mood.
Thanks to everyone in this forum for keeping my hopes alive in this long awful journey.

PD: March 7, 2007
NSC
Opened SR on Friday, July 15. Do not know if sr helped or not. I wish you all good luck and hoping that everyone gets through without any hassles or delays.

[natvyas]

Spec/Q/ Veni

Will the surge in I-140 approvals have an impact on the latest predicitions of 4-10K visas for Sept?

Regards
Nat

[veni001]

Spec/Q/ Veni

Will the surge in I-140 approvals have an impact on the latest predicitions of 4-10K visas for Sept?

Regards
Nat

natvyas,
Yes, we discussed this before, any increase in i140 processing (approvals/denials) will have its(-ve/+ve) impact on SOFAD. USCIS dash board only provides the number of applications processed in each month, does not include approval/denial ratio or percentages. Also based on PERM(Q1&Q2) data and June 485 pending inventory only 1/3rd of the pending i140 are EB1/Eb2ROW-M-P.

[Spectator]

Spec/Q/ Veni

Will the surge in I-140 approvals have an impact on the latest predicitions of 4-10K visas for Sept?

Regards
Nat

Nat,

Not an easy question to answer.

If you are talking about the surge shown in the recent reports, that is several months ago. It is quite possible that those are already accounted for, since EB2-ROW performed well in Apr-Jun 2011 according to Trackitt.

For the figures to have increased from 58k (52k + CP) at the end of April to 121k at the end of July, suggests increased approvals somewhere outside of the spillover given to EB2-IC.

It still needs watching for signs of a new surge.

[kd2008]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

TSC and NSC are now back on track with I-485 processing time of 4 months.

I-140 processing delay is still quite a bit. So the surge in approvals has only been st start of things. We may see quite a large volume of approvals in coming months.

This was expected given the 70K PERM approval surge of last year and its continuation this year.

On trackitt we see regular I-140 from April 2011 being processed so the processing times need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

[qesehmk]

My god ... public is in full swing out here. Its hardly a few hours i haven't posted!

First of all Spec your table is good. Might be a good idea to copy paste in the header if you wish so. Would also be helpful since somebody complained about noise to signal ratio - so that if somebody is not interested in general discussion / personal stories or whatevere tehy can go to either header or FACTS section.

You are not alone my friend. Although my employer was good, i wasted lot of years trusting people and working hard in American companies while waiting for GC to come. All that came out of it was exploitation just cause i was on a visa. And now, situation is so bad that i dont trust anyone. Not even my family. This GC nonsense had destroyed me and my family. Sad but true.

Will be 11 years for me in US soon.

ssvp .... felt sad reading what you wrote. You need to put things in perspective and hold onto the most important things and most likely GC wouldn't even figure in top 5. I may not be qualified to advise you ... but just my friendly 2 cents.

Ok, I just joined the this blog. I consider this blog more valuable than immigrationvoice.

Well, here is my story: My priority date is 04/15/2007 (EB2). I know I missed it by one day. Today, I went with an Infopass to the local office. The officer was very cordial. He said I have been pre-adjugated. However, they said the dates 'might' retrogress in the next visa bulletin. However, I am not sure whether I should believe him or not. I guess DOS decides on it. I doot think they share the information with the DHS so early.

As multiple people said .. "might" ? Yes. Will? No.

However, they don't have to be cautious in the last month of the FY, i.e Sept bulletin. 30 days is barely sufficient for any PWMB to get through system.

Leo ... while that is true, my judgement is that DoS' preference is to do SFM in general. Its possible they will make BTM as well - but as I said ... given how they have tried to establish visibility and coordination with USCIS ... SFM goes better with the DoS policy implementation.

P.S: Recently noise-to-signal ratio in this thread is increasing unlike past.

point well taken IM. But one of the key things that we can and we should try to do is empathize. None of us can get a GC to anybody. But visibility matters and seeing others share experience matters. Just yesterday one of you contacted me and said that because of the information he received here he made a case for promotion and his boss already recommended him for a promotion. So while what you say is true ... i think it is important for people to vent their feelings and share common experiences/information.

Appreciate your patience. If you are time pressed you can always go to header and FACTS section.

[soggadu]

Nat,

Not an easy question to answer.

If you are talking about the surge shown in the recent reports, that is several months ago. It is quite possible that those are already accounted for, since EB2-ROW performed well in Apr-Jun 2011 according to Trackitt.

For the figures to have increased from 58k (52k + CP) at the end of April to 121k at the end of July, suggests increased approvals somewhere outside of the spillover given to EB2-IC.

It still needs watching for signs of a new surge.

Spec i agree with the above statement and makes me feel strongly that we would have 19K still left to play with...

[iamdeb]

Spec i agree with the above statement and makes me feel strongly that we would have 19K still left to play with...

Just curious to know if there is any chance of EB2 being current temporarily in the near future?