Sorry for this question. How authentic this FOIA news is...when the Aug. bulletin was taken off for couple of hours, the same website claimed there was a error and the actual PD is going to be 2008 Apr. But it was not true...Originally Posted by veni001
snathan, I think that someone had just given a suggestion that it might be a typo, but it got portrayed as if it's official information. This is my impression at least.
one way to verify is to ask the mitbbs source to provide the FOIA documents...
Q and others, this is posted on mitbbs today. Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
: begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
: consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘
: s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
: advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
: compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
: use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.
Any comments?
I wouldn't be surprised because we havebeen speculating that for quite a while.
The other information that was posted in hte morning if true could mean that EB2IC could be cleared through Aug 2007 (except PWMBs). So the next logical step is to take in fresh applications.
Question is how large intake is enough. Apparently 1 yr supply worth is the right answer rather than 1 yr demand. So what is 1 yr supply? My first reaction is 15-20K for next year given EB1 and EB2ROW demand may be higher next year. So this could very well be Q2 2008. I need to check.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I agree Q . In line to what we have been discussing today evening regarding BTM ....one more confirmation from mitbbs .... we can now infer that Sep Bulletin will be at least till Q1'08 or may be even Q2'08. This is also inline with the NVC Fee Notices sent apparently up to June'08!!
I hope the source is credible, we had this discussion before any BTM could be similar to F2A movement last year.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Yesterday was an interesting day when we received the information about 19K possible visas in September of which 5-8K could come to EB2IC. I have updated the head with all that information gist now.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I don't think BTM quite conveys the sentiment. It should be Big Ass Movement aka BAM!
Sorry, that is about as much as my intellect allows me to contribute here.
Congratulations to Q and all others who are current in the Aug Bulletin (including me, WOOOT!!). Good luck to all others in the Sept bulletin. This site is my go to source for all news/analysis/questions GC related. Thanks for everything and do let us know if/when you start accepting donations.
P.S - Nice handling of the troll there, Q. My suggestion - Do not feed the Troll.
Q,The calculation that you did with the trackitt number to prove the information is simply awesome... My hopes are up again. Applying Mathematics for practical use.. simply awesome
The other interesting thing I found is that EB1-China has slowed down significantly from July 1st. They have another forum for China-EB1 on MITBBS. I checked the EB1 forum and I found totally only 2 China-EB1 got approved in the past 16 days. In June EB1-China approval speed was not serisouly slowed down and more than 50 got approved, but this month it is a totally different story, only 2 were approved so far. Trackitt also shows that very limited EB1 and EB2 ROW got approved in July. Although the data is a little thin, I strongly smells the slow down of EB1.
I think it's possible that EB1 will not get too many visas in the last quarter. Maybe EB2-China and India will get the most of the 19k visas due to this reason. The slow down of EB1 is good news for EB2 China and India.
WOW interesting finding. Thanks for the info. Very hard to navigate thru that site.
Yes, I searched the China EB1 forum and found China EB1 only got 2 approved. In the past, at least 50-70 EB1-China approvals were reported monthly. This month I only saw 2. The China EB1 are saying that USCIS is focusing on EB2 China/India now, so EB1 is very slow in this month. They are complaining about the low speed of EB1 due to spillover season. We have been waiting for 4-5 years and they only waited for several months, but they are complaining about EB2. I can't believe it. There is a slight chance the EB1 speed may pick up in the end of this month after all the EB2 China/Inida cases before March 8 2007 are approved. I think this month USCIS is overwhelmed by China/India EB2. Today alone I saw at least 40-50 China EB2 approvals on MITBBS.
Last edited by qblogfan; 07-16-2011 at 03:34 PM.
qblogfan,
Thank you for posting such interesting information.
The number of China cases on Trackitt is too low to get meaningful information such as you have provided on trends.
I think it generally true that EB1 approvals dry up a bit at the end of the year as the focus shifts to EB2-CI. For instance, EB1-ROW did not receive any approvals on Trackitt in September 2010.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
myfr66,
If true, that would seem to answer one of the big questions.
Many have said that if actual demand reaches zero, that CO must make the dates Current.
That does not appear to be the case from the above statement.
The Cut Off Dates will move consistent with how much demand CO believes will be generated, whether it is documentarily qualified or not at the time the Cut Off Dates are advanced to allow a new intake.
I guess DOS could ensure they have at least one CP case documentarily qualified with a late enough PD.
It also might mean that the advancement could take place at any time, if the dates are moved purely to generate a new intake. Perhaps that's a bit speculative.
Overall, I think that is a good thing.
I am surprised that DOS do not already have this information, since there have been rumours about this for some time.
I hope it is an update rather than an attempt to get this information from USCIS for the first time. If not, who knows how long it might take to compile!
One thing is clear. There are no thoughts of making EB2-CI Current.
Last edited by Spectator; 07-16-2011 at 10:37 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
It could also be most of the pending EB1C485 got processed(approval/denial)?
Looking at June 2011 EB Pending Inventory provide the following breakdown...
EB1C - 13.6%
EB1I -18.7%
EB1ROW - 67.05%
EB1M-P - 0.65%
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Hi Q, T, V,..... experts.
Have some questions for you guys
First our situation: We are one of those folks that are part of July 2007 fiasco with our pd in Dec 2007. To explain our pd, we had two cases and one with EB3I 2006 and EB2I Dec 2007 and we had to pick one because of an RFE. With no hopes of EB3, we selected EB2 2007. We both have our EAD and AP and way past the 180 day period.
Situation: Primary applicant now has a job offer in a different company with better pay + more but new company was told that they DON'T need to sponsor anything.
Problem: We are not sure whether the old company will pull out the I140 or not.
What should we do. Is it better to let the new company know. From what I understand, At the 485 stage, we just need a job that matches the description and dont really need a company's sponshorship and hence we said "no" to requires sponsorship.
What happens if old company pulls out 140?
What happens if old company does not and USCIS asks for job verification letter later when they are ready to process the file?
What would you guys do?
No, actually many EB1-China applicants are complaining in their forum. Apparently a bunch of these guys are still waiting, but very few got approved in this month.
This EB1 China forum has much traffic and they seldom use trackitt. Most of the EB1-China applicants discuss applications and progress on this forum, so it has a huge pool for me to observe this trend. In June EB1-China was not slowing down too much, but this month very very few cases got approved. As far as EB2 C&I can keep USCIS busy, very few EB1 cases can be approved. This will help EB2 C&I in a short run, and it may yield more spillover for the last VB. Keep fingers crossed.
Yes, I agree. I think it's very possible that USCIS are focusing on EB2 China and India in this month. Totally they need to approve around 11k cases in this month. The EB1-China forum has such a large pool that almost every EB1-China I know visits that forum on a regular basis. I am confident about this trend that EB1 is slowing down in July.
Keep fingers crossed and wish all of us good luck.
qblogfan,
I am not sure the volume of EB1C cases vs the approvals on the other forum. The reason behind my assumption is, June 2011 inventory was out (if i remember correct) some time end of May 2011, so if there are more EB1C approvals reported in June means there may not be very many (filed after May 2011) to approve under current processing time frame by Q4(July-Sept)?
Last edited by veni001; 07-16-2011 at 11:03 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Hi Q, If you don't mind can you please add a section "Last Updated Date" at the top of the section on the first page, so that when we start reading we know when you have updated it. I visit ur section almost every other day and just check to see if you have updated the first pageand I'm sure there are a lot like me.
trackitgc, any post if updated has "Last edited by xxxxx; <Day> at xx:xx " line at hte bottom of the post. Just check one post above yours here that veni has updated.
Similarly the first post will have the same information. This is built in forum software.
Hi Q, If you don't mind can you please add a section "Last Updated Date" at the top of the section on the first page, so that when we start reading we know when you have updated it. I visit ur section almost every other day and just check to see if you have updated the first page
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I looked further into the inventory data. I checked the previous inventory reports.
Oct 2010: EB1-China has 1053 pending cases
Jan 2011: EB1-China has 1079 pending cases
June 2011: EB1-China has 1359 pending cases
You can see the EB1-China inventory number has been stable in the previous three inventory reports. Therefore, I think the decrease of EB1-China approvals in July is not a result of decreased demand. In the past, I could see approved EB-1 China cases almost everyday, but it is not happening any more in July. On that forum many EB1-China cases were submitted in Feburary, but they are still pending.
Noticed following approval posted in Murthy Forums
================================================== ====
Priority Date: June, 2006
Category: EB2
Country: India
I-485 Receipt Date (For me and Spouse): May 11th, 2011
FP Done: June 17th, 2011
I-485 approved and cards received (For me and Spouse): July 11th, 2011
================================================== =====
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Veni, this is good information. A while back I had posted on this forum, that for clear cut cases, I am seeing 2 months approval times, and not just for India, also for EB2-ROW. This confirms that hypothesis.
This also might indicate why CO might have chosen to have short movement in July, to limit the number of PWMBs who could get in and be eligible for demand. This may be taken as fuel to the fire about the meticulous planning being attempted to have a BTM in upcoming bulletin(s).
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