Yes, you're correct, the text in the first post does make that clear.
Thanks for clarifying the situation.
I found the title "Annual Visa Availability Towards Backlog - ~25K" confusing, which implied that was what the document was trying to show.
Perhaps it should be changed to "Annual Visa Availability Towards Backlog - ~48K" to avoid further confusion.
Yes. That makes senses. Thank you. Updated the head of thread.
Hi Q & T,
The new inventory report has been released. Please see below.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...001%202010.pdf
You can now validate your predictions.
Thanks for all your services.
Cheers,
Srini
Thanks srini. This is great. At a quick look .... look at what happened to EB2-ROW ... on the -ve side they received boatload of new applications. On the +ve side the demand in ROW is hardly 5K per year. So in 2011 we will have hardly 13K ROW total demand - which means there should be about 20-25K SOFAD from EB2-ROW alone.
p.s. - Also note the date is 1st Oct - which makes predictions much easire because now the inventory is perfectly aligned w USCIS calendar.
Last edited by qesehmk; 10-08-2010 at 11:06 AM.
Macro Picture
Guys
If ROW NEW demand is 5K per year (which makes perfect sense in this economy) then there should ve been much more SOFAD. That's the question one might ask intuitively. Lets cross check w Macro Picture.
Current Overall EB inventory ~170K (A)
Dec 09 Overall EB inventory ~225K (B)
2010 EB1 NEW Demand - (C)
2010 ROW EB2 NEW Demand - (D)
2010 EB3-EB2 conversions - (E)
2010 quota - 150K (F)
2010 CP Backlog - 6K (G)
So theoretically we should see
F = (B - A) + C + D + E + G
i.e. 150 = 55 + C + D +E + 6
i.e. 89 = C + D + E
Since C + D was 26K less (according to CO) than their quota that means they were at 84-26 = 58.
That gives us 89 = 58 + E
which would make E i.e. conversions at 31K which is obviously ridiculous.
So that only points us in one direction that USCIS probably wasted some visas.
Or may be I am missing something... come on guys tear this apart.
Last edited by qesehmk; 10-08-2010 at 11:34 AM.
Q,
I am EB2 (India), My PD is Jan 26, 2007. What are my chances for getting Green during July - Sep 2011 period? or when do you think I have a good chance?
Cheers,
Srini
How are you All?
Its good to see USCIS has accepted our request / recommendation to publish Inventory data based on Quarter end and 1st of Month.
Lets See Inventory Reduction for EB China / India during Last FY 2010. We know this is not perfect as We have Some data from FY 2009 also.
We have Seen Nice reduction of Around EB2 - China/India = 31403 & EB3 China/India = 8194.
So for FY-2011 We need 35658 to remove Inventory, Sounds we need more then FY-2010.
China India
As on 8/28/2009 As on 10/01/2010 Net Reduction As on 8/28/2009 As on 10/01/2010 Reduction Used Required
EB1 607 1053 -446 718 1410 -692
EB2 19333 11404 7929 47728 24254 23474 31403 35658
EB3 6343 4116 2227 62607 56640 5967 8194 60756
EB4 384 4 380 123 18 105 485 22
EB5 13 0 13 13 10 3
Other (EW) 30 21 9 107 79 28
I'm just going to reply to the comment:
This goes back to my comment about trying to analyse the Inventory Data for categories that are Current.If ROW NEW demand is 5K per year (which makes perfect sense in this economy) then there should ve been much more SOFAD.
You cannot surmise that ROW demand is 5K per year. The majority of approved cases for that Category never appear in the Inventory Report.
You can only surmise that there are 5K "difficult" cases that are taking much longer to approve than the normal processing time.
Possibly they have added some District Office cases, although they haven't updated the explanation to say so. So, probably not. Just a case of more "unknown" cases at the Service Centers.
Alternatively and quite likely, we know from Trackitt data that ROW approvals "dry up" in the last quarter of a fiscal year and USCIS concentrate on allocating the spare visas to China and India.
It would not be particularly surprising to see a relatively big backlog for 01 Oct data because of this effect. Trackitt also shows an explosion of ROW approvals when the new FY gets underway.
At a stretch, you might claim that the total pending cases in a Report gives a handle on the demand for a 3 month period between reports. I am not a fan of this either.
But let's do that and use the average pending amounts over the 5 Inventory Reports published so far.
Average Pending EB2-ROW = 6,118
Average Pending EB2-Mexico = 190
Average Pending EB2-Philippines = 523
Average Pending EB2 (excluding China & India) = 6,831
Since that is for 3 months, multiply by 4 for yearly total = 27,324
Whilst I have my doubts about using this approach, it does at least give a result that we know is in the ball park of historical accuracy.
If USCIS decide to have a clear out of cases just prior to the Inventory publication, then all and any bets are off since it distorts the figures.
Looking at EB1 Worldwide in the same way gives a demand of 15,287 for the year.
I don't believe that figure in the light of all other evidence to the contrary and, whilst the EB2-ROW-M-P figure might look reasonable, it therefore can't be trusted either.
So, I will reiterate my view (probably annoyingly) that the value of the Inventory Reports in gleaning useful information for EB1 and EB2 Current Countries is extremely dubious.
At least it is a discussion point and it explains in part why I strongly hold that view.
Last edited by Spectator; 10-08-2010 at 01:04 PM.
This is useful. If we plug this 4K conversions in my simple formula on earlier page then we have about 26K unexplained visas that we don't know where they went!
compassion, welcome. i am not sure if I doing something wrong but EB2IC reduction turns out to be 22K - not 31K as you say below. pls check again.Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
please see embeded...
You can only surmise that there are 5K "difficult" cases that are taking much longer to approve than the normal processing time....
difficult cases theory is good. But that doesn't explain why we don't see 1000s cases for recent months. On the other hand yes there are difficult cases but they are from years behind. As far as 2009 or 2010 goes they are all legitimate cases of recently approved PERMs that came into inventory recently. Lower 2010 cases suggest that low number of PERM are approved for 2010 for ROW EB2. So it is safe to take 500 (which is the max number) in inventory and extrapolate to get total annual demand. What I missed was although annulized demand is 5K, in 2010 multiple years of annual demand hit. They already had 2007. But then they received 2008-full/09-full/10-partial. However even if we asssume it was 5-8K per year.. that gives us 15-24 max. Then take out 9K that is today that still says that EB2ROW only ate 6-15K max in 2010.
.....
But let's do that and use the average pending amounts over the 5 Inventory Reports published so far.
Average Pending EB2-ROW = 6,118
Average Pending EB2-Mexico = 190
Average Pending EB2-Philippines = 523
Average Pending EB2 (excluding China & India) = 6,831
Since that is for 3 months, multiply by 4 for yearly total = 27,324 This is difficult to agree to because difficult demand stays there for all 12 months. whereas only the flow-through demand should be qualified for annualization. Right?
Whilst I have my doubts about using this approach, it does at least give a result that we know is in the ball park of historical accuracy.
If USCIS decide to have a clear out of cases just prior to the Inventory publication, then all and any bets are off since it distorts the figures.
Looking at EB1 Worldwide in the same way gives a demand of 15,287 for the year.
I don't believe that figure in the light of all other evidence to the contrary and, whilst the EB2-ROW-M-P figure might look reasonable, it therefore can't be trusted either.
So, I will reiterate my view (probably annoyingly
Don't worry at all. This is all good discussion!
[QUOTE=qesehmk;46]This is useful. If we plug this 4K conversions in my simple formula on earlier page then we have about 26K unexplained visas that we don't know where they went!
Q I believe that the Inventory of Dec 2009 and Sep 2010 are different entities. There was some talk and reports that everything currently not in the inventory like NVC, district offices etc except for CP will be put into it because it is ultimately USCIS that would transfer cases to these other entities. If you consider this then your discrepancy will become smaller. Also see that the inventory is ~ 35K and last month’s demand data is ~ 34K which seem to be closer.
I think it is close to 100%
what are the chances of any forward movement in the Nov bulletin for EB2 I
stuck for two months on May 08
Thank you.
No change for EB2-I. Looks like they are giving 250 PM, that is why EB3-I and EB2-C moved by a week each. For EB2-I unfortunately there is backlog per the inventory before May 2006. Without any spillover this may well be the situation really till whenever it happens.
If there were no porting then January bulletin would certainly have movement. Given that there is 4K annual porting and conservatively assumign that 50% is India, then that plus backlog through May 06 is 3K which is equivalent to annual EB2I max allocation. So unfortunately you could very well be in a long wait unfortunately.stuck for two months on May 08
I am sorry to say this. However if Qly spillover is applied this year then it could be a matter of 2-3 months from now. Good luck!
EB2-I, PD: May 24th, 2006. Filed I-485: Sept 2008 (for self only), got married Feb 2009, wife on H4 and hence can't use EAD that I already have.
(i) Does anyone know the procedure if I were to change jobs now? (No change in field, title etc). I cannot move to using the EAD since my wife is a dependent on my H1 -- so I will need a H1 transfer. Would the new company have to reapply for my labor etc? What happens to my current application given I already have an EAD with it?
(ii) I guess nobody knows if quarterly spillover will happen/happens generally? I don't think we saw it happen last year? Given I am just TWO WEEKS away, could I be realistically expecting the date to get current in Dec? Jan?
Any help/pointers would be great. Thank you!
No Demand Data Document, is the Process Changed?
Last edited by compassion111; 10-11-2010 at 01:25 PM.
I think that going forward, demand data document will not be published. Rather, USCIS will publish monthly I-485 inventory report. I may be wrong...this is just a guess!
shishya, I think your wife should be able to file 485 once the date is current. I think for you the date should become current 6 months from now. Qly spillover would be nice but don't rely on that.EB2-I, PD: May 24th, 2006. Filed I-485: Sept 2008 (for self only), got married Feb 2009, wife on H4 and hence can't use EAD that I already have.
(i) Does anyone know the procedure if I were to change jobs now? (No change in field, title etc). I cannot move to using the EAD since my wife is a dependent on my H1 -- so I will need a H1 transfer. Would the new company have to reapply for my labor etc? What happens to my current application given I already have an EAD with it?
(ii) I guess nobody knows if quarterly spillover will happen/happens generally? I don't think we saw it happen last year? Given I am just TWO WEEKS away, could I be realistically expecting the date to get current in Dec? Jan?
Any help/pointers would be great. Thank you!
Head of the thread updated! (Based on latest inventory and bulletin.
Guys .. I have updated head of the thread based on latest USCIS inventory and visa bulletin. Good luck!
p.s. - EB3 guys I will update EB3 thread by tomorrow.
My EB2 Priority date is Feb 28,2008 Any guess when my date will be current. Thanks in advance.
By Sep 2012 you will have GC. The date should be current by mar 12.
Hi qeshmrk -I hate to make you play this prediction game but so much needs to be planned for my life so asking you same qs --My Pd is nov 2008 ( Eb2) . How long more you think I have to wait or I should just go back home ( been here since 99)
Hello punjabi, between your date and Jul 07 there are about 14K people. Coupled w 12K residual at the end of sep 2011 that is approx 26K. I would say the chances of you getting GC by Sep 12 are more than 70-80%. Sep 13 100%. Going back is a very personal decision. Hard to say what you should do. But I would ask this: Is pursuit of GC keeping you from following your dream? If so then may be GC is not that worth. If you are already working on your own projects at work or home that satisfy your dream, then GC is just a milestone and it will come in a matter of 2 years (max 3 years).
Thanks qeshmk. You are awesome . I think you should also consider a career in personal coaching ( just my opinion- look at how well you explained my situation!!!! ) Thanks buddy!!!!!!
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