EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[qesehmk]

This thread is very interesting. I have a question and not sure who to consult so Im hoping that you guys could give me some guidance of when my priority date will become current.

My priority date is 12/12/2012 EB3 ROW. I recently got a job and my gc will be re-filed by the new company. I am wondering if it makes sense to move and restart my gc in EB3 again (company wont do EB2 ROW) or should I just stick it out with my current job and think about it next year once the GC comes through. When my GC was filed for first time it literally took over 1 year to get PERM and I-140. I don't want to miss the window for filing I-485 earlier especially when this posts seem to say that EB3 ROW dates can move forward in 1st quarter.

When do you guys feel that December 2012 will become current- first quarter or second quarter. I am truly thankful for gaining so much knowledge from you. Good job guys. For us immigrants, our jobs and travel become such a pain with visa issues.

fresh welcome to the forum. You are in for a good surprise. Since your 140 was approved, your PD is now locked. It means even if you get a new job and restart your GC, your PD will still be 12/12/12. As per when that date will be current... definitely within 1 year I guess.

[migo79]

I guess he don't want wanna do that since he want to file I485 and get an EAD/AP and have relief

The dates for EB3ROW (based on current data) are expected to move beyond OCT12 probably by Q2, likely in December Bulletin he should be current unless there is a hidden backlog of I485 filers from APR11 to OCT12 which I don't expect since OCT12 remained current for two full months!

Good luck.

[migo79]

Here is my take on the EB3 ROWs Numbers in a one line, Spec and Gurus feel free to scrutinize it:

EB3 new demand past OCT12 PD:

19580 ROW PERM from OCT12 to JAN14 * .3 (EB3 factor) = 5874 - 587 (10% denial rate) = 5287 * 2.2(Dependents) = 11631 (new demand) + 10000 (FY14 carry over) = 21631.

So the predicted demand next year for EB3ROW is well beyond their allotted Visas, we may just need to count EB3 that doesn't go through PERM but i think this number is fairly low to affect the overall picture.

coming to EB3I should potentially benefit from any remaining Visas in FY15, thought as expected won't be very much, but still should be considered reasonable.

[amulchandra]

Here is my take on the EB3 ROWs Numbers in a one line, Spec and Gurus feel free to scrutinize it:

EB3 new demand past OCT12 PD:

19580 ROW PERM from OCT12 to JAN14 * .3 (EB3 factor) = 5874 - 587 (10% denial rate) = 5287 * 2.2(Dependents) = 11631 (new demand) + 10000 (FY14 carry over) = 21631.

So the predicted demand next year for EB3ROW is well beyond their allotted Visas, we may just need to count EB3 that doesn't go through PERM but i think this number is fairly low to affect the overall picture.

coming to EB3I should potentially benefit from any remaining Visas in FY15, thought as expected won't be very much, but still should be considered reasonable.

Hi migo,
I think what you meant is EB3 Row's demand for FY 2015 will be 'LESS' than it's allotted number( which 28,500 approximately). So EB3 should get at least 5000 to 6000 spillover. If that is true then it is some good news as 2004 is a very dense year for EB3 I and any extra numbers will definitely help.
Thanks
Amul

[Spectator]

Hi migo,
I think what you meant is EB3 Row's demand for FY 2015 will be 'LESS' than it's allotted number( which 28,500 approximately). So EB3 should get at least 5000 to 6000 spillover. If that is true then it is some good news as 2004 is a very dense year for EB3 I and any extra numbers will definitely help.
Thanks
Amul

Amul,

I'm not sure whether migo meant more or less either.

EB3-ROW never receives the full calculated allocation of 29.1k (in year where 140k are available to EB).

Both Philippines (and Mexico in the past) can use more than their calculated 7% within EB3 and still stay within the overall 7% limit. That reduces the numbers available to EB3-ROW. EB3-ROW generally suffer if EB3 does not reach its full allocation.

EB3-ROW generally has about 24k available to them.

FY ------- Act. ---- Calc.
FY2013 -- 23,822 -- 32,931
FY2012 -- 23,691 -- 30,148
FY2011 -- 20,744 -- 29,128
FY2010 -- 24,328 -- 31,323
FY2009 -- 26,295 -- 29,128

[amulchandra]

Amul,

I'm not sure whether migo meant more or less either.

EB3-ROW never receives the full calculated allocation of 29.1k (in year where 140k are available to EB).

Both Philippines (and Mexico in the past) can use more than their calculated 7% within EB3 and still stay within the overall 7% limit. That reduces the numbers available to EB3-ROW. EB3-ROW generally suffer if EB3 does not reach its full allocation.

EB3-ROW generally has about 24k available to them.

FY ------- Act. ---- Calc.
FY2013 -- 23,822 -- 32,931
FY2012 -- 23,691 -- 30,148
FY2011 -- 20,744 -- 29,128
FY2010 -- 24,328 -- 31,323
FY2009 -- 26,295 -- 29,128

Thank you very much for all the numbers Spec.

[Spectator]

Thank you very much for all the numbers Spec.

Amul,

You're welcome.

I do see some reason for hope for EB3-I, even in FY2015.

The EB3-P COD has accelerated very rapidly, yet it does not seem to have resulted in the sort of demand from CP cases I expected. If that trend continues through later years, then EB3-P could also provide spare visas. I think it is an outside shot though, given the historically very high number of nurses wishing to emigrate from the Philippines. It's possible the apparent low numbers may be caused by processing delays at the Manila Embassy and a lack of interview slots. Alternatively, it may just be abandonment or that the original job offer from the I-140 no longer exists.

[imdeng]

I find it reasonable that nursing job offers that were extended several years back no longer exist. There have been anecdotal evidence of a massive increase in number of nursing graduates in last decade in response to the nursing shortage. Seems like as of now there is no shortage - and hence no need to get nurses from Philippines. This report has some concrete numbers: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...hers-find.html

Amul,

You're welcome.

I do see some reason for hope for EB3-I, even in FY2015.

The EB3-P COD has accelerated very rapidly, yet it does not seem to have resulted in the sort of demand from CP cases I expected. If that trend continues through later years, then EB3-P could also provide spare visas. I think it is an outside shot though, given the historically very high number of nurses wishing to emigrate from the Philippines. It's possible the apparent low numbers may be caused by processing delays at the Manila Embassy and a lack of interview slots. Alternatively, it may just be abandonment or that the original job offer from the I-140 no longer exists.

[migo79]

Thanks guys,

Sorry for being not clear but i meant that EB3ROW demand will be *less* than the actual supply, however the actual FA will depend on the extent of how many cases from expected 21631 cases will be finalized the by the service center.

at the end not all of them will have the Visa next year, some cases will stuck for extended reviews for example, so the amount of FA will depend on that along how many Visas available to EB3 ROW next year.

[krishn]

EB3I , PD 27Nov2003 and PD 10Dec2003 got GC approval after rfe's earlier this year, will they have to return the cards now that the bulletin did not go that far ?

[migo79]

Hey Gurus,

We discussed lots about numbers but we didn't discuss about the expectations of dates movements in the next bulletin, i'd like to get your thoughts about the movement in OCT bulletin:

For EB3 ROW here are the facts:

* it is unlikely that any date moved by DOS within OCT12 generate any new demand to USCIS.

*not all pending applicant of the 11170 would immediately get a GC due to extended processing, i'm not sure though about how many pre-aduicated cases already in hand with USCIS.

*USCIS takes ~4,6 months to process an application to pre-adjudication.

Let's assume out of 11,170 there are 70% (rough number out of blue of my mind), Pre-Adjudicated applicants, this will be 7819 applicants. which should be suffice for the Q1 visas.

but again if dates doesn't move beyond OCT12 there will be no new demands and EB3ROW by January will have very small demand per month again due to processing time by USCIS.

so if DOS moved the dates post OCT12 in December for example, it will be least by April where DOS should see real demand generated by the move.

based on the numbers in I485, i would assume it should be moved at least one year to APR12 or back to where it was OCT12 in OCT bulletin.
They may then move 0/ 6 month in November if they are conservatives.

but then December would be so late to move dates post OCT12 and almost very little visas would be used in Q2.

from your experience with CO strategy what do you think your dates would move for EB3 ROW?

[imdeng]

migo - pure conjecture - if I had been in CO's shoes, I will push EB3ROW to 01OCT2012 in the next bulletin, keep it there for Nov/Dec so that much of the inventory is depleted, start building inventory - say - 01OCT2013 in Jan VB - keep it there for Mar and Apr. 01OCT2014 in May VB - keep it there for Jun and July. Finally - if the numbers support - then C for Aug/Sep/Oct - and going forward.

This is of course assuming that the demand density for EB3ROW continues to be low enough to justify the movement.

[freshoftheboat?]

Hello- this 11,170 applicants for eb3 row- does this no include dependents as well?

[migo79]

yes the 11170 is including the dependents as well,

back to the question, Imdeng:
That strategy will still leave a gap of about 3 months of slow demand for EB3ROW, USCIS will not be able approve the cases fast enough to generate real demand seen by DOS?

if he moved the dates in OCT beyond OCT12 PD this will ensure at least entering Q2 there will be real demand to work upon.
nevertheless i don't think that they may do this bold move and instead may be conservative, not sure however why they may not be that bold at beginning of FY with Visas still in hand and they have the power to retrogress at any given time

[glennphil]

Hi my PD 09/23/11 EB3 PHIL , is there a possibility that this will be current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks

[imdeng]

Waters are a little murky for EB3P. It has moved several years in the past few months - the jury is still out on whether the underlying demand has just vanished or will it materialize as CP cases get processed in Manila. Given the recent movement, I would imagine that EB3P would stall for at least a couple months to see if the demand materializes. I expect it will, even if at a reduced rate, and EB3P will lag EB3ROW/M. So, IMHO, getting current on Oct bulletin is tough. However, depending upon how much demand shows up, getting current in FY15 should be a distinct likelihood.

Hi my PD 09/23/11 EB3 PHIL , is there a possibility that this will be current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks

[glennphil]

Waters are a little murky for EB3P. It has moved several years in the past few months - the jury is still out on whether the underlying demand has just vanished or will it materialize as CP cases get processed in Manila. Given the recent movement, I would imagine that EB3P would stall for at least a couple months to see if the demand materializes. I expect it will, even if at a reduced rate, and EB3P will lag EB3ROW/M. So, IMHO, getting current on Oct bulletin is tough. However, depending upon how much demand shows up, getting current in FY15 should be a distinct likelihood.

So, there might be retrogression this coming Oct VB for EB3 PHIL? Is there a possibility that PD 09/23/11 will be current around FEB 2015 for EB3 PHIL? thank you for your information!

[imdeng]

There should not be any retrogression. My personal opinion is that, similar to EB3ROW, enough demand has vanished that EB3P can hold the current date. Whether it will move forward substantially can be answered with more confidence once the next inventory gets released. I personally think that your date should be current some time in FY2015 - can not say with any confidence regarding Feb 2015 in the absence of any more data.

My expectation is that by the end of FY2015, EB3ROW/M/C would be C, EB3P would be an year or so behind EB3ROW - and EB3I will start getting spillover from EB3ROW.

So, there might be retrogression this coming Oct VB for EB3 PHIL? Is there a possibility that PD 09/23/11 will be current around FEB 2015 for EB3 PHIL? thank you for your information!

[Spectator]

I found this in Trackitt originally. I believe this is the source.

Charlie Oppenheim Offers His Projections For EB-3 Philippines – Track EB-3 For the Rest of the World

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) DOS Liaison Committee has begun a series designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and projections. Immediately following publication of each month’s Visa Bulletin, AILA will “check-in” with Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories. Mr. Oppenheim is responsible for setting the cut-off date for immigrant visa priority date movement each month.

For the month of September, 2014, Mr. Oppenheim offered the following comments regarding EB-3 Philippines:

Q: The EB-3 category for the Philippines has been catching up to the rest of the world rapidly. Can you share your predictions regarding the cut-off date for the end of this FY and into FY2015?

A: The September 2014 Visa Bulletin shows EB-3 Philippines consistent with the worldwide EB-3 cutoff date of April 21, 2011. There are two reasons for this. First, in earlier years, there was greater usage of visa numbers for EB-1 and EB-2 Philippines. Since that usage has decreased, there is greater fall-down of numbers to EB-3 Philippines. Second, there are fewer EB-3 Philippines beneficiaries who are coming forth as documentarily qualified.

When there is a greater availability of numbers relative to the demand, it accelerates the cut-off date movement to tap into beneficiaries who can use the visa numbers since the goal is to maximize number use within the applicable annual limit.

In terms of projections for next year, corrective action might be required if EB-1 and EB-2 usage were to increase or if demand for EB-3 numbers increases. Before that would happen, EB-3 Philippines would be held for a period of several months see if number use averages out to an acceptable level. If it became apparent that demand was not subsiding or was continuing to increase, it would be necessary to retrogress the date to hold number use within the annual limit.

At this point, my prediction is that EB-3 Philippines will probably tag along at the worldwide EB-3 cutoff date for the next several months.

Outside of the quote, I would say that makes sense as far as FY2014 is concerned. I can't talk of EB1-P, but EB2-P was expected to have lower use in FY2014 due to the PERM slowdown. Since that has now been reversed (and that is likely to be seen for FY2015 approvals), somewhat higher EB2-P use would be expected in FY2015. This would be similar to low EB2-P use in FY2012 (due to early retrogression of EB2) allowing high EB3-P use and then high EB2-P use (due to the delayed cases from FY2012) in FY2013 reduced the numbers available to EB3-P that year.

[migo79]

i'm starting to see some guys post approvals for EB3ROW in trackitt, i'm not sure however how much is left for this FY probably 1000, 2000?
i'm glad seeing them approve EB3ROW again after some stallments, hopefully they don't wast much visas this year

[Spectator]

i'm starting to see some guys post approvals for EB3ROW in trackitt, i'm not sure however how much is left for this FY probably 1000, 2000?
i'm glad seeing them approve EB3ROW again after some stallments, hopefully they don't wast much visas this year

I think, as with EB3-I, it's making final adjustments to the total number approved.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more approvals on Trackitt, but I don't think many visas are left for EB3-ROW. I would be surprised if it is as many as 1k.

[freshoftheboat?]

I am very curious to know what will happen to EB3 ROW dates in next visa bulletin. Another 7-10 days more left. Just hoping that it gets back to Oct-12 so that it can move further in nov-dec bulletin.

Priority date is dec-12... Btw this forum is excellent.

Anything new - anyone?

[Spectator]

I am very curious to know what will happen to EB3 ROW dates in next visa bulletin. Another 7-10 days more left. Just hoping that it gets back to Oct-12 so that it can move further in nov-dec bulletin.

Priority date is dec-12... Btw this forum is excellent.

Anything new - anyone?

I suspect, similar to how he did it for EB2-ROW at the beginning of FY2013, CO might move the EB3-ROW dates back to 01OCT12 over a 2-3 month period to spread the workload for USCIS.

CO probably doesn't have enough visa numbers to cover the (now) preadjudicated cases in a single month anyway. Theoretically, CO will only have about 13k visas (9% of EB total) available for all EB cases in October. I think EB3-ROW will have about 10k cases to fall into FY2015. CO will likely use several thousand visas for EB2-I cases in October, which may limit the movement possible for EB3-ROW.

I could be completely wrong.

[migo79]

Spec:

what puzzle me is how what he is going to do with Q2,
if he didn't move the dates post OCT12 soon enough, USCIS won't be able to request visa numbers on time, it takes minimal 4 to 6 months

so if he finish Q1 visas the inventory will be virtually depleted and hence there will be no time to build new inventory to use Q2 visas
i know Visas won't be wasted at this point but this will be like a gap or 3 to 4 months with very low demand.

[Spectator]

Spec:

what puzzle me is how what he is going to do with Q2,
if he didn't move the dates post OCT12 soon enough, USCIS won't be able to request visa numbers on time, it takes minimal 4 to 6 months

so if he finish Q1 visas the inventory will be virtually depleted and hence there will be no time to build new inventory to use Q2 visas
i know Visas won't be wasted at this point but this will be like a gap or 3 to 4 months with very low demand.

migo,

Sometimes it is not possible to keep a constant flow.

It's a potential consequence of having moved the Cut Off Dates far further than necessary previously and the timing of when those cases turned into demand. We know that equation was not handled particularly well. There wasn't enough demand generated for FY2013 - that was shifted to FY2014, causing EB3-ROW to reach the numerical limits fairly early and causing retrogression.

Demand from other Categories in Q1 FY2015 will ultimately decide how many visas CO has available for EB3-ROW and when the dates can move. He can, by law, only use a maximum of 27% of the EB total allocation in Q1 (a min of 37.8k).

Ultimately, as long as the dates have moved sufficiently (which probably means Current) no later than April 2015, then that leaves the 6 months required to adjudicate them within FY2015. I don't expect people will have to wait as long as April for the movement.