EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Monica12]

I am already eternally here, refreshing every few so often. My own mind internally I was saying, countdown begins, until the next 10th of August. As the D-day comes, my sleeplessness will rise exponentially.

Man proposes, God disposes. However much we may calculate and analyse, CO has the power to dispose all of us in one shot!

So true Nishant, I feel the same way !
May the force aka CO be with us

[sandeep11]

Q, you are right.

[qesehmk]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...

rest of the 300 will be returning soon.../ sleepless nights to nishant will return again..../
.....
BTW, I'm making note of everyone who is predicting 01-May 07

Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

[Monica12]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

Yipeee..... finally some good news.
Q, thanks for the update !
PS: Looks like I will have to learn to decipher Chinese after all !!!

[ssvp22]

Yipeee..... finally some good news.
Q, thanks for the update !
PS: Looks like I will have to learn to decipher Chinese after all !!!

Love the words "BBS Unnamed Space Station". Reminds me of radio days.

[28thJune2007]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

Q
That's a good new. ...I want to ask one question though. If 5k is left for EB2 than should we not add to this number meaning we should have 5k +1K+2k = 8K fpr September VB

[nayekal]

Friends you all are doing a great job by maintaining the sanctitiy of this forum.

Q, Spec, Teddy and all other contributors thanks for your time a patience. Believe me this forum turned out to be a kind of addiction for me for the last few days. I inadvertantly go into the forum and check if there are any positive updates almost every hour or so.

We all are waiting for our turn to be greened and the wait is frustrating for few. It is the same with me too (PD 11/2007). Infact this frustration is so bad to few that I have personally seen two of my collegues disappointed and leave office the day VB was released.

You guys keep up the good work and good luck to you all.

Man..are you one of colleague..just kidding.
I left my office early with out telling any one...

[pch053]

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

Q,
Won't another 5K of spillovers move the EB2-I/C dates to end of June or even 1st week of July. The # of pending visas for EB2-I for after 15th April to end of June (assuming 50% of April pending numbers are after 15th April) is 3047 and the same for EB2-C is 1370. So, overall pending EB2-I/C #'s from mid-April to end of June is 4417 and another 5K spillovers (if available) might push dates into 1st week of July.

[qesehmk]

The entire 5K available to EB2 will not go to EB2IC. However including FD from EB1 and EB5 the SOFAD should easily be 5K.

Q
That's a good new. ...I want to ask one question though. If 5k is left for EB2 than should we not add to this number meaning we should have 5k +1K+2k = 8K fpr September VB

[qesehmk]

Or even further if its more than 5K....
Yep ... absolutely agree.
So Aug bulletin is not that bad afterall!

Q,
Won't another 5K of spillovers move the EB2-I/C dates to end of June or even 1st week of July. The # of pending visas for EB2-I for after 15th April to end of June (assuming 50% of April pending numbers are after 15th April) is 3047 and the same for EB2-C is 1370. So, overall pending EB2-I/C #'s from mid-April to end of June is 4417 and another 5K spillovers (if available) might push dates into 1st week of July.

[Feb2008]

I think you should use more appropriate language in your post #3958 on page 159. we are all foreigners and should respect each other.

[hoping4thebest]

To put things in perspective, the chinese (especially EB3) have been pissed off for a while that EB india takes away most of the spillover (ratio of 3:1 or 5:1 or 6:1 depending on which analysis you look at). Their main focus of all their analysis is to add to their constant campaign to push DoS/USCIS not to allott spillover numbers based on PD. But then I wonder what else could visa numbers be based on.
Anyway, I have followed that forum for a while and their attitude towards EB-India is belligerent at best. Their goal is for EB-India to NOT receive ANY spillover visas until EB-China backlog is eliminated. The same was one of the points in their failed lawsuit. And I of course find that idea ridiculous.

Yipeee..... finally some good news.
Q, thanks for the update !
PS: Looks like I will have to learn to decipher Chinese after all !!!

[Monica12]

Guys, Please let's not start any kind of war here. We are all going through this painful process together and should help each other in any way we can...
We will benefit if we work together on this and will not gain anything by attacking each other.
Your co-operation is highly appreciated.
PEACE !!!!!!

[pravara]

Guys,

What does this mean? Does it mean my case has been approved?

Card/ Document Production

"On July 14, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283."

[soggadu]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

Damn... So hopes going high again? Also these 121k used visas are excluding aug month right...

As some one said, hope is a tough weed, the more I try to keep it underwraps... The more it grows up....

[vishNov07]

I think you should use more appropriate language in your post #3958 on page 159. we are all foreigners and should respect each other.

Feb2008, the post you mentioned does not have anything offensive about it or at least I'm pretty sure it was not meant to be be offensive to anybody. Its a common phrase which you may have interpreted out of context.

[veni001]

Guys,

I have been looking a little more at this.

Here's a more detailed breakdown (correcting a small error I found).

- Inv Date ---- Total ---- EB2 ----- EB1

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,918 --- 5,950 --- 2,968
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964 --- 3,657 --- 2,307
27 May 2010 -- 14,138 --- 6,763 --- 7,375
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510 --- 9,915 --- 7,595
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388 --- 8,935 --- 8,453
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130 -- 10,142 --- 9,988

The Kazarian case was heard in March 2010, so the rise in numbers is post Kazarian.

Is it possible that the rise in pending EB2 cases represent NIW (which generally are also Exceptional Ability cases)?

It does seem possible that a final decision might have been postponed until the adjudicators received training on adjudicating EB1 and EB2-NIW after the decision.

Subsequent processing times seem to have increased substantially, which would also raise the figures.

I have never found any statistics as to what % of total EB2 approvals that NIW represent. I don't think that Trackitt necessarily provides reliable figures, but it suggests around 10% for ROW (excl. M-P).

Post Kazarian, NIW should also become more difficult and perhaps less people will therefore apply or get approved, just like EB1A and EB1B.

Just talking out loud to add to the discussion.

Teddy I agree with you.

If the VO are purely moving by the numbers and give the same amount in September as August, the CUD might scrape to 01JUN07. The absolute best I can see is 22JUN07, but that would require more visas in September than August, which would be unusual.

The trend for total numbers of pending cases for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P in successive USCIS Inventories tells a chilling tale.

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,934
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964
27 May 2010 -- 14,138
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.

Spec,
That may be true for the monthly demand data used for VB cutt-off dates.
Looking at i140 receipts(EB1/EB2-NIW) data is telling me it is not the case for i485 inventory.

[leo07]

it means you can thank your Pravara men loudly ( in your office if you wish)

Good Luck!

Guys,

What does this mean? Does it mean my case has been approved?

Card/ Document Production

"On July 14, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283."

[qblogfan]

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.

To put things in perspective, the chinese (especially EB3) have been pissed off for a while that EB india takes away most of the spillover (ratio of 3:1 or 5:1 or 6:1 depending on which analysis you look at). Their main focus of all their analysis is to add to their constant campaign to push DoS/USCIS not to allott spillover numbers based on PD. But then I wonder what else could visa numbers be based on.
Anyway, I have followed that forum for a while and their attitude towards EB-India is belligerent at best. Their goal is for EB-India to NOT receive ANY spillover visas until EB-China backlog is eliminated. The same was one of the points in their failed lawsuit. And I of course find that idea ridiculous.

[leo07]

Good one. I agree.

btw, I could not help notice on their website they refer it EB2CI It's only natural instinct, I guess, for all humans/animals alike.

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.

[leo07]

I thought the 19k referred from FOIA might be of April 30th?

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

[qesehmk]

They say they expect 19K to be distributed in Sep.
19K is a good number even otherwise.
140/12 = ~12K.

Indicating 12K would be normal monthly allocation. So why 19K left. May be that's 7K SOFAD rather than 5K!!!

I thought the 19k referred from FOIA might be of April 30th?

[Monica12]

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.

Qblogfan, well said !!!!
I sincerely hope you are not leaving us

[Spectator]

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.

qblogfan,

I too hope you will not be abandoning us. I like your contributions and personally value the different perspective you bring to the discussion.

I am sure no offence was intended.

On a lighter note - Google Translate or any other similar service are absolutely crap (if you'll excuse my French) at translating Chinese into plain English!

[28thJune2007]

They say they expect 19K to be distributed in Sep.
19K is a good number even otherwise.
140/12 = ~12K.

Indicating 12K would be normal monthly allocation. So why 19K left. May be that's 7K SOFAD rather than 5K!!!

Guys

I tried using google translation to make sense of the mitbbs post. It mentioned something about extra CIS. Could anyone do correct translation (Maybe qblogfan can help us)......Thanks in advance