EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[justvisiting]

If the DOS believes the inventory, (which I think they don't), then EB3-ROW-C-M-P should be made Current on the new FY, as there are enough visas to go around. (Although EB3-P has relatively higher CP cases, so this one may be held back).

[migo79]

I think this inventory just proved that the calculations made by gurus are close to actual numbers.

it is expected that the carry over will be between 8000 to 1000 for ROW so DOS probably holding of 2000 3000+/- Visas for ROW until next FY.

Starting October they should at least move ROW to OCT12, remember that this PD remained current for 2 months, so i expect number of people who didn't yet file their I-485 to be relatively very small.

i think it is with December/Jan visa bulletin when DOS will move the dates aggressively maybe 6 months increment until maybe mid of FY15 where they might make ROW current if demand remain low (which is highly expected based on PERM numbers and EB2/EB3 ratio), the ~40% increase in ROW EB2 inventory also suggest that story.

[amulchandra]

I think this inventory just proved that the calculations made by gurus are close to actual numbers.

it is expected that the carry over will be between 8000 to 1000 for ROW so DOS probably holding of 2000 3000+/- Visas for ROW until next FY.

Starting October they should at least move ROW to OCT12, remember that this PD remained current for 2 months, so i expect number of people who didn't yet file their I-485 to be relatively very small.

i think it is with December/Jan visa bulletin when DOS will move the dates aggressively maybe 6 months increment until maybe mid of FY15 where they might make ROW current if demand remain low (which is highly expected based on PERM numbers and EB2/EB3 ratio), the ~40% increase in ROW EB2 inventory also suggest that story.

Hi migo,

I have been following your posts for sometime.

Can you please throw some light on EB3 I movement in next FY based on the new inventory report.

On a lighter note I caution you that 'You are giving EB3Is hope' ! So be prepared to getting bugged by people like me.

Thank you very much for your time.

Amul

[krishn]

FOR EB3 Row:

uscis pending inventory :

pending~~~2007~~~2008~~~2009~~~2010~~~2011~~~2012~ ~~allyears(97-14)
Jan'14~~~~1,283~~~2,609~~~4,362~~~2,493~~~1,200~~~ 1,715~~~15,086
apr'14~~~~889~~~~1,655~~~2,320~~~1,777~~~2,242~~~2 ,930~~~13,121
Jul'14~~~~771~~~~1,187~~~1,459~~~1,126~~~1,591~~~3 ,636~~~11,179


looks like just ~2k over all reduction in inventory for eb3row



DOS Visa Bulletins:

Oct13~~~~~01JUL10
Nov13~~~~~01OCT10
Dec13~~~~~01OCT11
Jan14~~~~~01APR12
Feb14~~~~~01JUN12
Mar14~~~~~01Sep12
Apr14~~~~~01OCT12
May14~~~~~01OCT12
Jun14 ~~~~~01APR11
Jul14~~~~~01APR11
Aug14~~~~~01APR11


Gurus,

from uscis eb3 row pending inventory and current date/cut off date(cod) from visa bulletins, there are only 7543 eligible inventory till 2011 for visa issuance. while this last quarters visa availability is 9000. So imho EB3 row COD dates have to move ahead , if some of these pending eb3 row are stuck in background check etc processing-delays, wouldnt DOS be better off moving eb3 row to 01oct12 ?

[migo79]

To amulchandra:

imdeng did a wonderful analysis based on the available data,
based on when DOS may decide to make ROW current will determine if there will be an horizontal spillover in FY15.
if the low demand in ROW continue starting FY16 EB3I will have some good amount of spillover to use clearing the backlog.

Just looking through the inventory data, I had a thought that EB3I's prospects might not bee too bleak going forward. Consider the following:

1. Inventory upto 07/07 is 31.2K as of Apr 2014.
2. Inventory is shrinking due to porting. If we just consider 2004-2007 (i.e only porting reductions), the inventory reduced from ~35K in May 2012, to 32.2K in Apr 2013, to 27.4K in Apr 2014. So - lets call it 3K porting per year from EB3I with PD < 07/07. Add 3K of normal allocation - and you have 6K getting out from inventory every year.
3. Lets assume that we get 0 horizontal spillover in FY2015 and 8K horizontal spillover in FY2016 and FY2017.
4. By end of FY2017, we will run through a total inventory reduction of 6K+6K+6K+8K+8K = 34K
5. So we conclude the the current EB3I inventory will finish by the end of FY2017 (i.e. Sept 2017). Somebody who filed in EB3I on 07/07 will get his/her GC in ~10 years.

Of course there are issues with the speculations above. Porting will slow as dates reach closer to 07/07. Getting horizontal spillover from EB3ROW is something that may happen in very low numbers and might even not happen at all.

Also its worth noting that the density after 07/07 is likely to be quite low. So once dates from 07/07, they should move very quickly.

[krishn]

conservatively we could see some 8k-5k spillover next year fy15 from eb3row to eb3I is my guess.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19756 14,471

EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
EB2 ROW Approvals 44,934 30,093 24,427 30,161 21,778 36,485


eb2 row Perm = eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 22467 15047 12214 15081 10889 18243
eb2 row perm = discount 20% for niw etc after depedents 17974 12038 9771 12065 8711 14594
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior year Perm ROW - this year EB2 Approval) n/a 18100 9276 3754 8547 5162
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior 3 year Perm ROW - past+this year EB2 Approval) n/a n/a 43195 36318 32057 28180 19633


EB3 Row 485 inventory guesstimate =2.2* eb3 perm guess n/a 39820 20407.2 8258.8 18803.4 11356.4


EB3 ROW 485 Inventory guesstimate = PERM ROW *0.3*2.2 19891.08 12571.02 10440.54 11390.28 13038.96 9550.86

eb2 row Perm = eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 : Assumption is every perm will result in 2.2 I485 to include dependents(spouse & children)
eb2 row perm = discount 20% for niw etc after depedents : setting aside 20% for niw (national interest waiver) schedule A etc.
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior year Perm ROW - this year EB2 Approval) : since eb2 row was current assumption is eb2row filed last year could be approved the next year
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior 3 year Perm ROW - past+this year EB2 Approval) : since eb2 row was current assumption is eb2row filed last year could be approved the next year so taking difference from last 3 years row approval and last 2 years eb2 approval
EB3 Row 485 inventory guesstimate =2.2* eb3 perm guess : 485 is 2.2 times perm coz of dependents.
EB3 ROW 485 Inventory guesstimate = PERM ROW *0.3*2.2 : another way to arrive at 485 inventory is assuming 70:30 for eb2:eb3 ratio of perm row, and multiplying by dependents factor of 2.2



yearly perm approval data is from Spec, The Guru
and yearly eb2 approval data is from dos website

[imdeng]

Nice work Krishn. I think I understand what you did in the attached image - but if you add some explanation text it would be helpful.

[krishn]

eb2 row Perm = eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 : Assumption is every perm will result in 2.2 I485 to include dependents(spouse & children)
eb2 row perm = discount 20% for niw etc after depedents : setting aside 20% for niw (national interest waiver) schedule A etc.
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior year Perm ROW - this year EB2 Approval) : since eb2 row was current assumption is eb2row filed last year could be approved the next year
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior 3 year Perm ROW - past+this year EB2 Approval) : since eb2 row was current assumption is eb2row filed last year could be approved the next year so taking difference from last 3 years row approval and last 2 years eb2 approval
EB3 Row 485 inventory guesstimate =2.2* eb3 perm guess : 485 is 2.2 times perm coz of dependents.
EB3 ROW 485 Inventory guesstimate = PERM ROW *0.3*2.2 : another way to arrive at 485 inventory is assuming 70:30 for eb2:eb3 ratio of perm row, and multiplying by dependents factor of 2.2



yearly perm approval data is from Spec, The Guru
and yearly eb2 approval data is from dos website

hope this helps.

[migo79]

nice work Kirshn indeed!

[Jagan01]

Hi,

I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.

[imdeng]

Use the one that came with I-797. That I-94 effectively replaced the one you got at the PoE.

Hi,

I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.

[amulchandra]

To amulchandra:

imdeng did a wonderful analysis based on the available data,
based on when DOS may decide to make ROW current will determine if there will be an horizontal spillover in FY15.
if the low demand in ROW continue starting FY16 EB3I will have some good amount of spillover to use clearing the backlog.

Thank you very much migo and imdeng. I am waiting since 2006. It has been 8 years since I started the process. Hopefully this will be over by the end of 2016.

Amul

[migo79]

hey guys, question
in 2012 EB2 ROW retrogressed by ~3 years then in became current again in November Visa bulletin
the Inventory for this period for EB2 ROW was more than 15000 pending.

Why that won't happen again with EB3 ROW? they are retrogressed by ~3 years and their inventory in October should be much less that the EB2 ROW for that period?

i'm sure quarterly limit was enacted in 2012 as well?
any thoughts of what was going on during that period of time?

[imdeng]

Inventory might be low but there are 2+ years of demand yet to be counted. There is no need to hurry - CO might start with getting EB3ROW to the high water mark first and then move something like 6 month every month. He might hold it just before Current to see how much inventory is generated - and then if needed, make EB3ROW Current in the spillover season - July/Aug/Sept 2015 - and let any excess numbers flow to EB3I. Once it goes current, it is likely to stay current - but any spillover to EB-3I is only likely to happen again 2016 July/Aug/Sept - just like EB2I.

Who would have thought an year back that EB3I will have this bright a light at the end of the tunnel!

hey guys, question
in 2012 EB2 ROW retrogressed by ~3 years then in became current again in November Visa bulletin
the Inventory for this period for EB2 ROW was more than 15000 pending.

Why that won't happen again with EB3 ROW? they are retrogressed by ~3 years and their inventory in October should be much less that the EB2 ROW for that period?

i'm sure quarterly limit was enacted in 2012 as well?
any thoughts of what was going on during that period of time?

[migo79]

that make sense
EB2ROW retrogressed for just 4 months vs the 2 years + of unknown Demand to DOS in nowadays EB3 ROW situation.

Thanks Imdeng

[Spectator]

hey guys, question
in 2012 EB2 ROW retrogressed by ~3 years then in became current again in November Visa bulletin
the Inventory for this period for EB2 ROW was more than 15000 pending.

Why that won't happen again with EB3 ROW? they are retrogressed by ~3 years and their inventory in October should be much less that the EB2 ROW for that period?

i'm sure quarterly limit was enacted in 2012 as well?
any thoughts of what was going on during that period of time?

migo,

The reason EB2-ROW was retrogressed for the last 3 months of FY2012 was because EB2-I were allocated so many visas (the EB2-I COD was accelerated to 01MAY10 and held at that date), that the entire annual allocation for EB2 (including any FD from EB1, EB4 & EB5) was used up before the end of May 2012.

As a result, EB2-I was made Unavailable in the June VB (actually came into effect during May) and EB2-ROW was retrogressed due to non availability of further visas for EB2.

A retrogression to 01JAN09 for EB2-ROW was the equivalent of being made Unavailable, without the stigma associated with doing so.

The reasons this happened has been discussed previously.

CO deliberately staggered the EB2-ROW dates back to Current over the first 2 months of FY2013 to avoid of overloading USCIS in October 2012.

As a result, EB2-ROW visa usage in FY2012 was particularly low and usage in FY2013 was particularly high - the average use over FY2012/FY2013 was fairly normal.

[migo79]

Thank you Spec for the as usual great explanation

[krishn]

but any spillover to EB-3I is only likely to happen again 2016 July/Aug/Sept - just like EB2I.

did you mean 2015 or 2016 ?

[migo79]

Wow,
out from 47257 certified to date, just over 15300 are ROW Perms, that's around 28% of total PERMS., that's still pretty low number even with the acceleration of PERM approvals this FY!

Things are poised to a bright year for EB3 ROW and yes Imdeng finally a light at end of the tunnel for EB3I
hope this trend continue

[imdeng]

First a small chance in Summer 2015 and then a much better shot in Summer 2016. Essentially, EB3ROW and EB3I will do the same dance as EB2ROW and EB2I do every year.

did you mean 2015 or 2016 ?

[imdeng]

Typically recently 55% of PERMs are India, another 7% China, 4% Phillippines and 2% Mexico (ball park figures) - total 68% - that leaves 32% ROW. 28% seems lower than even the recent typical numbers.

PERM slowdown is hitting everybody including India applicants - so that shouldn't change the composition of PERM approvals.

Very exciting days are ahead for EB3 folks.

Wow,
out from 47257 certified to date, just over 15300 are ROW Perms, that's around 28% of total PERMS., that's still pretty low number even with the acceleration of PERM approvals this FY!

Things are poised to a bright year for EB3 ROW and yes Imdeng finally a light at end of the tunnel for EB3I
hope this trend continue

[Spectator]

Typically recently 55% of PERMs are India, another 7% China, 4% Phillippines and 2% Mexico (ball park figures) - total 68% - that leaves 32% ROW. 28% seems lower than even the recent typical numbers.

PERM slowdown is hitting everybody including India applicants - so that shouldn't change the composition of PERM approvals.

Very exciting days are ahead for EB3 folks.

FY2014 YTD, the % of Certified PERM are:

China ---------- 7.10%
India --------- 55.73%
Mexico --------- 2.19%
Philippines ---- 2.51%
ROW ----------- 32.46%
Total -------- 100.00%

The % has remained relatively constant across all quarters of FY2014 to date.

ROW is about 3% higher than the figures for FY2013

China ---------- 6.06%
India --------- 59.46%
Mexico --------- 2.04%
Mexico --------- 2.64%
ROW ----------- 29.80%
Total -------- 100.00%

At the same point in the FY (Q3), FY2013 had 27,850 certifications compared to 47,276 certifications to date in FY2014 (+ 70%).

Hope that helps.

[krishn]

Spec, a dumb question , is there any way to figure out eb3 or eb2 from perm data? is it at the 140 stage or perm step the eb2 or eb3 is determined ? Thanks

[Spectator]

Spec, a dumb question , is there any way to figure out eb3 or eb2 from perm data? is it at the 140 stage or perm step the eb2 or eb3 is determined ? Thanks

krishn,

It's not a dumb question at all.

The minimum requirements of the PERM (contained in the DOL LCR system, but not in the OFLC disclosure data) can generally tell you whether the PERM is aimed at an EB2 or not, but it is USCIS who ultimately decide at the I-140 stage on the Category by judging whether the minimum requirements satisfy the EB2 requirements and whether the candidate meets those minimum requirements. If they agree, the I-140 is approved. If they do not agree, the I-140 will be denied.

There is no direct way to split the PERM data into EB2 and EB3.

The PERM data contains the Country of Citizenship, which although not Country of Birth, is close enough for the vast majority of cases. Some people try to use the Wage Level to split the data, but that has serious limitations and I don't recommend it.

The Prevailing Wage data contains the minimum requirements for level of education and experience. It's possible to analyze that data to arrive at a rough EB2:EB3 split, but it is quite laborious to do it properly. Since the Prevailing Wage data does not contain any information about nationality, it isn't possible to directly split the EB3:EB2 % by Country.

With that base data and some assumptions, it's possible to arrive at semi-reasonable estimates of the EB2:EB3 ratio for the various Countries/Groups, although there is obviously an error margin in that exercise. The quality of the result depends on the quality of both the data analysis and the assumptions made.

[krishn]

thanks a lot for the explanation