EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[sidd21]

Q and all the Gurus

Good Afternoon, We became current today(EB2I :09-March-2007). My wife is the primary applicant . We had few questions, can you please kindly respond

1) My application ( eb3 -2003 ,I was primary ) was denied due to ability to pay and is in appeals.
will this cause any problems for me or my wife when we apply her i-485, since we are using the A# from that application.

2) Coming back to my wife's application , since we have become current, we go ahead and submitt our application in Aug 1 2011.. how long will it take for the Fingerprinting and name check to be completed?.Can we expect to see a GC by year end?

We would really appreciate your responses as we can have some idea as to what to expect... it has been a long wait for us..... Thank you in advance

No I was not sarcastic. Strict FIFO will not happen for multiple reasons. But if your date is current then you should get it within a month max. Otherwise its a problem.



Spec answered this. The only thing I would correct is that China will actually see faster date movements simply because their demand is thinner than India. And then again May 2012 onwards India and China will catch together.

100% chance that people until Q1 2008 will be able to file 485 by Sep 2012.

[kolugc]

Q, S, T, V..

If the dates won't move to June 2008 how can they issue the NVC receipts for those dates? Should I consider that to be false information (that the NVC receipts have been sent to June 2008 dates) or there is no rule that the dates for which NVC receipts have been send need to be current soon. I could not find an answer for this so far and so this questions to you gurus...

[mvinayam]

We were really hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel this Fiscal Yr. But now based on the discussions it looks like our PD jun 20th 2007 wont be current till next yr spill over season.

Is it possible that for EB2 I the dates will remain stagnant starting for Sept till May 2012 like last yr????

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. Keeping fingers crossed.

On another note I just want to thank everybody for their positive attitude on this site. Some people may have noticed that our thread just passed half million views this morning. It means a lot to me given that we started from scratch. I was not sure if we would be able to serve as many people as we are serving today. But I was unhappy enough about IV that I took the step of going aware from it anyway. Today I feel happy that we had 385 users hitting the site at teh same time. Just yesterday there were 26000 views. I am sure it was more than what IV received today and yesterday. I do wish them well. However, I can't and don't want to hide the pride and joy of this.

More than numbers, whats important is that people do it by and large in a cooperative and respectful manner. Some people may be thinking that its my personal quest or business enterprise or whatever. And I wouldn't deny that. I don't know where this will go. But I am confident of one thing - that I derive happiness out of helping and sharing and so do a lot of other people on this site. And while we have done that ... we have also donated more (literally) than we have earned through advertisement. So all in all its all goodness. I really appreciate eveyrbody;s support and contribution. Even if you have made a single post ... you have contributed positively to this forum. So thank you just for that.

Q,

Now the hiatus has finally died down, I can finally congratulate you on becoming Current from 01 August.

Wishing you a short wait until they pick up your case and approve it!

[03May07]

Q

congrats

I think the chances of dates going beyond 2007 July is almost none, obviously buliding pipeline is something they may not consider until the reality hits. Bad news for PWMB, may be this fy will settle at May1,2007 and till May2012 the dates may reach Aug2007 and the only choice will be making EBIC Current or atleast pushing it to 2010/2011 to approve all the CP cases and send the spillover to EB3

bieber,

Be nice...don't say May 1, 2007. I started to dread to hear that.

As this year, whilst Countries are using their initial 7% allocation, we might expect the EB2-C Cut Off Date to advance more rapidly than EB2-I at the beginning of FY2012 because they have the same number of visas available as EB2-I but less cases per month.

Spec(or other gurus),
If, in the Sept Bulletin, the cutoff date remains 15 Apr 07 or moves to 01 May 07 (don' say that..), what would happen to someone like me in FY2012? There will be only a few hundred cases prior to my date...so can I be hopeful in First quarter and Second Quarter (assuming dates dont retrogress) or have to wait until May 2012?

[Spectator]

Q, S, T, V..

If the dates won't move to June 2008 how can they issue the NVC receipts for those dates? Should I consider that to be false information (that the NVC receipts have been sent to June 2008 dates) or there is no rule that the dates for which NVC receipts have been send need to be current soon. I could not find an answer for this so far and so this questions to you gurus...

kolugc,

I think there were enough reports to say the fee receipts probably were issued.

To my knowledge, fee receipts can be issued as much as a year in advance of the PD becoming Current, although 6-9 months seems more common. They may well still become Current within that timescale.

Alternatively, DOS may have genuinely thought, at the time the fee receipts were issued, that there was a reasonable prospect of those dates becoming Current and that the situation has changed. I don't remember many recent reports of fee requests being issued.

I have no hard facts for either explanation.

[veni001]

Q, S, T, V..

If the dates won't move to June 2008 how can they issue the NVC receipts for those dates? Should I consider that to be false information (that the NVC receipts have been sent to June 2008 dates) or there is no rule that the dates for which NVC receipts have been send need to be current soon. I could not find an answer for this so far and so this questions to you gurus...

kolugc,

I think there were enough reports to say the fee receipts probably were issued.

To my knowledge, fee receipts can be issued as much as a year in advance of the PD becoming Current, although 6-9 months seems more common. They may well still become Current within that timescale.

Alternatively, DOS may have genuinely thought, at the time the fee receipts were issued, that there was a reasonable prospect of those dates becoming Current and that the situation has changed. I don't remember many recent reports of fee requests being issued.

I have no hard facts for either explanation.

Spec,
Agree, Once paid, Fee is valid until their CP interview. So no worries to those already paid!

[veni001]

bieber,

Be nice...don't say May 1, 2007. I started to dread to hear that.



Spec(or other gurus),
If, in the Sept Bulletin, the cutoff date remains 15 Apr 07 or moves to 01 May 07 (don' say that..), what would happen to someone like me in FY2012? There will be only a few hundred cases prior to my date...so can I be hopeful in First quarter and Second Quarter (assuming dates dont retrogress) or have to wait until May 2012?

03May07,
Just comparing 2010 movement with 2011, even though 2011 Spillover started in May itself....

July 2010
EB2I- 6.1k
EB2C- No Movement

August 2010
EB2I- 7.7k
EB2C- 1.4k

Sept 2010
EB2I- 3.1k
EB2C- 1.3k

October 2010
EB2I- No Movement
EB2C- 0.3k

July 2011
EB2I- 7.8k
EB2C- 0.7k

August 2011
EB2I- 1.6k
EB2C- 0.9k

Sept 2011
EB2I- ??
EB2C- ??


There will be some movement in Sept 2011(unless available VISAs = EB1/EB2ROW qualified applicants) and let's hope you will be current. If no movement in Sept 2011, then starting October 2011 EB2I PD movement will be based on depending on no.of documentarily qualified PWMB's plus no.of porting cases on monthly basis.

Bottom line is , no forward movement in September VB could mean small forward movement starting October 2011!

[Spectator]

Spec(or other gurus),
If, in the Sept Bulletin, the cutoff date remains 15 Apr 07 or moves to 01 May 07 (don' say that..), what would happen to someone like me in FY2012? There will be only a few hundred cases prior to my date...so can I be hopeful in First quarter and Second Quarter (assuming dates dont retrogress) or have to wait until May 2012?

03May07,

That would be a very tricky situation.

You would be at the mercy of how many PWMB and porting cases with PDs earlier than yours were also adjudicated.

With so few visas per month available, there would be the danger that, like this year, the Cut Off Date stalls at that set in the last month of the previous FY. The numbers shouldn't be as big next year.

Hopefully, it is not a bridge you will have to cross.

[bieber]

bieber,

Be nice...don't say May 1, 2007. I started to dread to hear that.

point noted , I didnot have any backup to say May1, so don't spend any time thinking about that

If indeed dates stop before May3, I don't think you need to wait till Q3/Q4 of fy2012, there will definitely be monthly movement starting Oct 2011. But as spec said PWMB will be big factor but your date may be way too early to get that kind of impact, so in other words your world won't stop till next spillover season

[qesehmk]

I do not see why your EB2 application should be affected. I think you should certainly have a GC by end of this year.

Q and all the Gurus
Good Afternoon, We became current today(EB2I :09-March-2007). My wife is the primary applicant . We had few questions, can you please kindly respond

1) My application ( eb3 -2003 ,I was primary ) was denied due to ability to pay and is in appeals.
will this cause any problems for me or my wife when we apply her i-485, since we are using the A# from that application.
2) Coming back to my wife's application , since we have become current, we go ahead and submitt our application in Aug 1 2011.. how long will it take for the Fingerprinting and name check to be completed?.Can we expect to see a GC by year end?

Q, S, T, V..
If the dates won't move to June 2008 how can they issue the NVC receipts for those dates? Should I consider that to be false information (that the NVC receipts have been sent to June 2008 dates) or there is no rule that the dates for which NVC receipts have been send need to be current soon. I could not find an answer for this so far and so this questions to you gurus...

There is no true and false. Most of the time people are guessing (including us on this forum). We will know better depending on where Sep bulleting comes at whether there will be any big temporary movement. (lets call it BTM)

We were really hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel this Fiscal Yr. But now based on the discussions it looks like our PD jun 20th 2007 wont be current till next yr spill over season.
Is it possible that for EB2 I the dates will remain stagnant starting for Sept till May 2012 like last yr????

Spec already answered this for 3M. And yes this is tricky. It could remain stagnant based on how many PWMB and portings are there. As per any BTM .. that is at the mercy of where Sep bulletin takes us. If it ends up Jun or earlier then the chances of BTM in Oct/Nov are nill given that there will be at least 3K demand after Jun 2007 which is more than sufficient for 2012 quota.
However most likely there will be a BTM by Q1 2012 otherwise there will be a risk that in 2012 visas numbers could go waste as far as EB2 is concerned.

[familyguy]

It would be very interesting to see how EB2C dates willl be moved once the EB2 china's inventory is 0 or close to 0. At present EB2C has about 4000 pending cases. Out of 4000 about 1000 cases will be cleared in August/2011, which brings total to 3000. Starting FY2012, china will get 2800 visas that will pretty much wipe the entire inventory.

Question to gurus: will 2800 visas be distributed in four quarters? If this is the case then we wont know immediately how EB2C dates will be moved...

[Dec13th2007]

Friends.

Visa bulletin is out. It is a kind a disappointing to me. Unfortunately EB2 just got advanced by one month to 15-Apr 2007

[03May07]

03May07,

That would be a very tricky situation.

You would be at the mercy of how many PWMB and porting cases with PDs earlier than yours were also adjudicated.

With so few visas per month available, there would be the danger that, like this year, the Cut Off Date stalls at that set in the last month of the previous FY. The numbers shouldn't be as big next year.

Hopefully, it is not a bridge you will have to cross.

I dont want to get on that bridge . (missing it by a 1/2 day in 2007 and missing it by 2 weeks now..I'm thinking of ..."Jab Kismat hai G..NDU kya kareyga PAANDU"...)

Q, can we get Spec a big 'S' like you and Veni have a Big 'Q' and Big 'V' beside your username.(before Sangiano joins this forum and stakes a claim for Big 'S' )

[veni001]

I dont want to get on that bridge . (missing it by a 1/2 day in 2007 and missing it by 2 weeks now..I'm thinking of ..."Jab Kismat hai G..NDU kya kareyga PAANDU"...)

Q, can we get Spec a big 'S' like you and Veni have a Big 'Q' and Big 'V' beside your username.(before Sangiano joins this forum and stakes a claim for Big 'S' )

Come on 03MAY07,
You missed the big "S"here our "Spectator"

[qesehmk]

Q, can we get Spec a big 'S' like you and Veni have a Big 'Q' and Big 'V' beside your username.(before Sangiano joins this forum and stakes a claim for Big 'S' )

I simply wanted to have a profile picture but was too lazy to spend much time in doing that. So just typed Q in ppt and gave it a font 42 and saved as a jpeg and uploaded. Spec is welcome to claim S before sangiano!! I am sure sangiano is already on this forum. Just not sure who he is.

[Spectator]

I dont want to get on that bridge . (missing it by a 1/2 day in 2007 and missing it by 2 weeks now..I'm thinking of ..."Jab Kismat hai G..NDU kya kareyga PAANDU"...)

Q, can we get Spec a big 'S' like you and Veni have a Big 'Q' and Big 'V' beside your username.(before Sangiano joins this forum and stakes a claim for Big 'S' )

03May07,

Good idea!

I'm jealous and completely useless as far as avatars go.

So, Q and V,

Where did you get your letters? Are they built into the forum somewhere already?

The "Big T" needs one as well.

PM or email me.

[soggadu]

03May07,

Good idea!

I'm jealous and completely useless as far as avatars go.

So, Q and V,

Where did you get your letters? Are they built into the forum somewhere already?

The "Big T" needs one as well.

PM or email me.

I am sacrificing "S" for you spec...

[gchopeful123]

Experts,
For the last month of this FY2011, apart from EB1 spillover is there any possibility of more spillover of other categories into EB2I? or do you guys think they have been already counted and allocated to EB2 so far?

[veni001]

I simply wanted to have a profile picture but was too lazy to spend much time in doing that. So just typed Q in ppt and gave it a font 42 and saved as a jpeg and uploaded. Spec is welcome to claim S before sangiano!! I am sure sangiano is already on this forum. Just not sure who he is.

...and I just followed Q with my V...

03May07,

Good idea!

I'm jealous and completely useless as far as avatars go.

So, Q and V,

Where did you get your letters? Are they built into the forum somewhere already?

The "Big T" needs one as well.

PM or email me.

Spec,
I just used MS Paint...

[TeddyKoochu]

03May07,

Good idea!

I'm jealous and completely useless as far as avatars go.

So, Q and V,

Where did you get your letters? Are they built into the forum somewhere already?

The "Big T" needs one as well.

PM or email me.

Spec & Other friends Iam small "t" not big "T". Lets try and find the avatar files / icons.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

[gc_usa]

Could this happened ? DOS got less demand for Rest of categories from USCIS and DOS started spill over early to IC. Later USCIS changed their mind and came with lots of demand for ROW and EB1. do DOS has to limit spill over ?

[Spectator]

Could this happened ? DOS got less demand for Rest of categories from USCIS and DOS started spill over early to IC. Later USCIS changed their mind and came with lots of demand for ROW and EB1. do DOS has to limit spill over ?

gc_usa,

As has been discussed many times, the elephant in the corner was always the ever increasing backlog of EB1 and EB2-ROW applications.

Maybe it has woken up.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Just now Leo and Sogaddu brought it to my attn that custom avatars are not allowed. I have made the change (or so do i think) so that now you can use your own avatars.

Please let me know if you face issues.

Thanks
Q