EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[03May07]

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?

Yeah, let me know...so that I better be prepared if the date moves to 01 May 2007(as guru's have started predicting) in Sept bulletin.

[Gclongwait]

It isn't that bad guys. Just a few months ago may '07 was better than the best prediction and we probably will still hit that.

1. I am still very very hopeful that the dates will move into early 2008 (April/may) in the next bulletin and then retrogress in order to pre-adjudicate for next year since next year for sure the current backlog will clear. I thought they may move in this bulletin since if they could clear the AoS backlog this FY then CP could have used any leftover visas, but they don't seem to have enough visas.

2. Its a little disappointing for people with PD's in June/July '07 since it looks like they are going to just miss it, but for people with PD's ahead of July '07 it was always a long shot this year.

3. If they have restricted the movement to provide visas to EB2ROW and EB1 (not sure of that but that's what folks here are saying), that in the long run is a good thing since restricting categories that are current to provide visas to IC will cause more delays in the future. Your viewpoint on this may depend upon where your PD is.

Also, Since 2006 and 2007 are the same as far as Perm is concerned, all things remaining the same can we expect the same movement next year, of about 1 year? Maybe too early to say that....

[TeluguBidda]

Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, pch and other Experts,

After looking at the August Bulletin, do you think there is a possibility that Visa #s for this fiscal year would be exhausted in August itself? I know of a few cases last year when they were current in July, did not get approved until September and finally they were told by local offices and USCIS service centers that no more visa #s are available.

My PD is 11/29/2006, transferred from VSC to TSC in 2007. God knows what is going on although I have been fortunate enough to know via InfoPass that it has been pre-adjudicated in 2009. I am now scared with the dreaded possibility of not hearing anything until August and then finally they tell me that no more Visa #s are available? Can you please advise on the overall issue as it would benefit everyone. Thank you.

[Pdmar08]

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?

Aaaiga...nem chukala

[rough translation] Darn it ...missed it

[Read in the tone of hindi cricket commentator] Ek aur jhandi ka patan

[Rough translation] another one bites the dust.(though in a sad way)

Just trying to lighten the mood guys...i know its depressing, whats more depressing is light at the end of the tunnel is may 2012. shouldnt be complaining, i know people have been waiting for long. But what happened since morning is a testament to the saying the world lives on hope.

[qesehmk]

I second ChampU's thoughts, and would like to help in any way possible, monetory or technical. No effort should go in vain, to help keep this site running. I, personally have learnt much from this site, than from any other sources.

Thanks lprseeker. Appreciate it. Will count on you should we need something.

My life was on pause since last few months. My daughter and wife saying something, I was occupied on iPhone reading information and websites. thinking , hoping , dreaming.
I can get back to my same old life now for one more year, and enjoy what I have already.

Couldn't be said any better what you just said here.

OMG, I don't believe this.... This sucks...What a bummer! Gurus, Does anyone see any kind of bright side from this VB?

The silven line is that Sep is yet to come and secondly any bad news this year reduces the bad news next year.

'qblogfan' any info to add from your site?
Congratulations to Q and to all those whose PD became current. (Looks like Q is off to his immunization appt.)

Thanks 3M and all others for their wishes. Appreciate it. I will be around regardless.

Looking from the negative side, Does Guru's here think have any chance to move into early 2008 atleast by end of 2012?
Since there are lot of eb2 row and eb1 pending and apart from it more than expected portings, is there any chance that eb2 IC will see atleast 5000 to 10000 spill overs for next year?
personally with this depressing mood, i feel that dates might not cross July '2007 even by the end of 2012. Not sure my depressing mood is thinking...
Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy any input FY2012?

Next year as I said the low end for SOFAD is 12-15K. But with this bad news .. I would bump it up to at least 20K. I know that also is not assuring for those waiting to file 485. Unfortunately don't want to create false hope.

Not yet, we still have Sept'11.
Sachin is Out but Yuvi is coming.

Its more like bhajji. The bulletin could be a dark horse or could be a bummer.


In general, if there is going to be any movement in September then the EB2 ROW and EB1 consumption shouldn't be too high during July. That's our only hope for any further movement in September. So we will keep watching trackitt and update our thinking on whether Sep will bring any further good news.

[kpt112107]

Does this bulletin proves all our calculations are wrong????????????????

[neospeed]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36095

I-140 Validity and Portability
�� AC21 §106(c)
�� Matter of Al Wazzan
o Application for “same or similar” adjudication
�� USCIS is considering a proposal to require aliens to file an application
with fee for adjudication by USCIS to determine whether the new position
is in the “same or similar” occupational classification which could be
adjudicated prior to the adjustment application greatly benefitting visa
regressed cases;

does it mean no need to file new perm and I-140 when moved to different employer?

[qesehmk]

Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, pch and other Experts,

After looking at the August Bulletin, do you think there is a possibility that Visa #s for this fiscal year would be exhausted in August itself? I know of a few cases last year when they were current in July, did not get approved until September and finally they were told by local offices and USCIS service centers that no more visa #s are available.

My PD is 11/29/2006, transferred from VSC to TSC in 2007. God knows what is going on although I have been fortunate enough to know via InfoPass that it has been pre-adjudicated in 2009. I am now scared with the dreaded possibility of not hearing anything until August and then finally they tell me that no more Visa #s are available? Can you please advise on the overall issue as it would benefit everyone. Thank you.

Given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand, I would say the chance of wasting visas or running out of visas is extremely small.

[Pdmar08]

also Q ...congrats and congrats to all others who got current.

[gcq]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36095

I-140 Validity and Portability
.....
o Application for “same or similar” adjudication
...................
does it mean no need to file new perm and I-140 when moved to different employer ?

I don't think they are referring to filing a separate perm and I-140. As of now there is no formal way to file AC21. This proposal may introduce a formal form and fees to file AC21.

[leo07]

You can feel a lil better than the 15th April 2007 folks

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?

[TeluguBidda]

Given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand, I would say the chance of wasting visas or running out of visas is extremely small.

Thanks Q. When you said, "given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand", I hope you did not mean anything sarcastic I am sure you were depressed like many others (including myself) seeing the August visa bulletin.

On a side note, it is depressing to note that both NSC and TSC are approving cases in a completely random fashion. Sucks big time ! People who have filed I-485s after me are approved, people who have PDs weeks / months after me are approved.

[bieber]

Q

congrats

I think the chances of dates going beyond 2007 July is almost none, obviously buliding pipeline is something they may not consider until the reality hits. Bad news for PWMB, may be this fy will settle at May1,2007 and till May2012 the dates may reach Aug2007 and the only choice will be making EBIC Current or atleast pushing it to 2010/2011 to approve all the CP cases and send the spillover to EB3

[leo07]

Demand Data that's released yesterday shows that there's a 10.5 k demand still with CIS.
Add another 3 k for this 5 week movement.
Add another 250-500 porting cases + Misc

This will bring inventory to 14 K. Unless DOS has anything closer to 10k visas in kitty for September, I'd be surprised to see any movement. It's not DOS+CIS's job to build inventory, at least that's what they appeared to convey with VB movement this time. may be I turned pessimistic with the outcome or through shear despair

[gchopeful123]

Can it be that USCIS is just trying to play it safe for this month so that they can open a mini floodgate (for PDs till early 2008) next month?

I still cant make sense of why people are saying that we have to wait until May 2012 for further movement? That would be weird isn't it because the USCIS would have no EB2 demand in the pipeline (because no I-485s have been filed after Jul/Aug 2007)? So how will they use the usual EB2 visa numbers for 2012 + any spillovers if there is nothing in the pipeline - it is taking at least 6 months for I-485 to be adjudicated.

[bieber]

Can it be that USCIS is just trying to play it safe for this month so that they can open a mini floodgate (for PDs till early 2008) next month?

I still cant make sense of why people are saying that we have to wait until May 2012 for further movement? That would be weird isn't it because the USCIS would have no EB2 demand in the pipeline (because no I-485s have been filed after Jul/Aug 2007)? So how will they use the usual EB2 visa numbers for 2012 + any spillovers if there is nothing in the pipeline - it is taking at least 6 months for I-485 to be adjudicated.

The difference is you are assuming there will be spillover in next year and DOS/CIS will not assume that till they see atleast 2 quarters and confirm

everyone used to say July but this year it all started in May, so hope they will do it sooner than May in next year and that would give may be enough time to use the spillover for EB2

[ssvp22]

also Q ...congrats and congrats to all others who got current.

Wish the same from my side.

[sha_kus]

gurus i have questions now.... lets assume some small movements happens next month and china's remaining demand goes below 2800 yearly quota in October. Will it be considered as ROW for some time... Even though i am assuming this to happen to india at later stage.. Will EB2-I also be considered EB2 - ROW for atleast some time.... obviously there will be no EB2 -ROW if this thing really happens...

[grnwtg]

Thanks lprseeker. Appreciate it. Will count on you should we need something.


Couldn't be said any better what you just said here.


The silven line is that Sep is yet to come and secondly any bad news this year reduces the bad news next year.


Thanks 3M and all others for their wishes. Appreciate it. I will be around regardless.


Next year as I said the low end for SOFAD is 12-15K. But with this bad news .. I would bump it up to at least 20K. I know that also is not assuring for those waiting to file 485. Unfortunately don't want to create false hope.


Its more like bhajji. The bulletin could be a dark horse or could be a bummer.


In general, if there is going to be any movement in September then the EB2 ROW and EB1 consumption shouldn't be too high during July. That's our only hope for any further movement in September. So we will keep watching trackitt and update our thinking on whether Sep will bring any further good news.

Thanks Q, atleast good to hear 10-15k will be low end of spill overs for next year, which says that people in early 2008 do have chance to get EAD atleast end of next year.

[velugc]

"Apirl Fool" may be now it should be changed as "Augest Fool"... USCIS restored the same site and paying hide and seek.. no changes what so ever.. lets hold on and wait till next bullitin to know if the there is going to be a full \ mini \ No flood gates open...

[Spectator]

gurus i have questions now.... lets assume some small movements happens next month and china's remaining demand goes below 2800 yearly quota in October. Will it be considered as ROW for some time... Even though i am assuming this to happen to india at later stage.. Will EB2-I also be considered EB2 - ROW for atleast some time.... obviously there will be no EB2 -ROW if this thing really happens...

sha_kus,

No, because China is shown as an individual Country due to its expected usage in FB & EB. That won't change.

As this year, whilst Countries are using their initial 7% allocation, we might expect the EB2-C Cut Off Date to advance more rapidly than EB2-I at the beginning of FY2012 because they have the same number of visas available as EB2-I but less cases per month.

Once EB2-C starts using spillover visas next year, they will share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.

[Spectator]

Q,

Now the hiatus has finally died down, I can finally congratulate you on becoming Current from 01 August.

Wishing you a short wait until they pick up your case and approve it!

[kkurasa]

Here goes my first post after following this blog for quite sometime now.

Congrats to all those folks who got current with the latest VB.

As far as to why dates haven't moved that well, I know folks have been giving their thoughts on the same but does the current state of the economy have anything to do with being cautious about the dates ? Perhaps they didn't want to get too aggressive with the dates and cause a stir.

On the other hand, we have to accept the reality that dates might not make more jumps as good as we have seen the last few VB's.

Now that the VB has come out wonder what the Guru's of this forum think about the number crunching and what can we expect in the next few VB.

Cheers,
KK

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q. When you said, "given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand", I hope you did not mean anything sarcastic I am sure you were depressed like many others (including myself) seeing the August visa bulletin.

On a side note, it is depressing to note that both NSC and TSC are approving cases in a completely random fashion. Sucks big time ! People who have filed I-485s after me are approved, people who have PDs weeks / months after me are approved.

No I was not sarcastic. Strict FIFO will not happen for multiple reasons. But if your date is current then you should get it within a month max. Otherwise its a problem.

gurus i have questions now.... lets assume some small movements happens next month and china's remaining demand goes below 2800 yearly quota in October. Will it be considered as ROW for some time... Even though i am assuming this to happen to india at later stage.. Will EB2-I also be considered EB2 - ROW for atleast some time.... obviously there will be no EB2 -ROW if this thing really happens...

Spec answered this. The only thing I would correct is that China will actually see faster date movements simply because their demand is thinner than India. And then again May 2012 onwards India and China will catch together.

Thanks Q, atleast good to hear 10-15k will be low end of spill overs for next year, which says that people in early 2008 do have chance to get EAD atleast end of next year.

100% chance that people until Q1 2008 will be able to file 485 by Sep 2012.

[pch053]

Q,
Also, a big thank to your source for such accurate feedback on visa bulletins. The predictions have been spot on for the last couple of bulletins. Hope we will get similar input in future too and wishing you a quick GC approval!