EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

Spec - I think the fee requests represent the floor and not the ceiling. Fee requests indicate that they are ready to issue the visa in next few months - hence they can't send a fee request for a date too far in future. PD on the other hand, can go into future beyond the latest fee request.

Plus I don't think DoS/USCIS need too persuasive a rationale for being very aggressive in PDs. Something on the line of "Uncertainty regarding whether a significant number of PERM approvals will convert into 485 demand because of weaker economy and layoffs" will be enough I think. It is a policy decision and once they arrive at a policy it is not too difficult to find arguments to substantiate it.

imdeng,

I agree that the DOS thinking can be quite loose in justifying any movement. I also think they have known what they were eventually going to do for several months.

State have a history of ensuring they look after their own (CP cases), which is why I think if there was going to be significant movement beyond mid 2008, we would have heard that NVC were taking further action on later cases.

The problem with moving beyond the CP cases is that then Demand reaches zero and all that entails.

I feel DOS have ensured there are 2008 cases in the demand to ensure that does not happen.

I might well be wrong.

[qesehmk]

Guys .... pay close attention to what Spec is saying here. That is a very astute and logical statement.

State have a history of ensuring they look after their own (CP cases), which is why I think if there was going to be significant movement beyond mid 2008, we would have heard that NVC were taking further action on later cases.
I feel DOS have ensured there are 2008 cases in the demand to ensure that does not happen.

[imdeng]

Spec - moving PD beyond CP cases does not mean a zero demand since the new PD will create a substantial 485 queue in no time. I think the fee requests have to be conservative since they do not have a waiting mechanism like EAD in CP. PD on the other hand can be aggressively increased since you can have people waiting in post-485 phase for years. Thats why my assertion that fee requests represent a floor rather than a ceiling for the future PD movement.

imdeng,
The problem with moving beyond the CP cases is that then Demand reaches zero and all that entails.

[immitrickz]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..

[pdmay2008]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..

Who is your source?

[qesehmk]

You better be correct on this one for your own sake. Otherwise you have just made a lot of people unhappy

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..

[nishant2200]

You better be correct on this one for your own sake. Otherwise you have just made a lot of people unhappy

I am going to stick with the calculations and analysis model, which predicts forward movement.

[iamdeb]

I guess you are referring to this article

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31336477.html

As you mentioned NVC sent CP dates is the floor and not the ceiling. How far ahead of 2008 it goes is just guesswork for now..

[immitrickz]

You better be correct on this one for your own sake. Otherwise you have just made a lot of people unhappy

I am just a messenger..don't shoot the messenger.. I would have to ditch my source if the info turns out false..

[ssvp22]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..

There is no real thing to worry. At worst, everyones state remains the same and we can continue working. Only thing that VB has to offer is upside.

[Spectator]

Spec - moving PD beyond CP cases does not mean a zero demand since the new PD will create a substantial 485 queue in no time. I think the fee requests have to be conservative since they do not have a waiting mechanism like EAD in CP. PD on the other hand can be aggressively increased since you can have people waiting in post-485 phase for years. Thats why my assertion that fee requests represent a floor rather than a ceiling for the future PD movement.

imdeng,

I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this point.

The Cut Off Date is established by the last case that cannot be allocated a visa.

In theory at least, if there is just one case more than the number of available visas, the Cut Off Date will become the PD of that case.

If there are more visas than there are qualified cases, then there is no Cut Off Date and the category is Current.

moving PD beyond CP cases does not mean a zero demand since the new PD will create a substantial 485 queue in no time.

The point is that it is not no time. Even for CP cases, which can be adjudicated faster than AOS cases, it does take some time.

Since there are, to our knowledge, no cases with a PD beyond about mid 2008 that might be qualified to immediately issue a visa to, any movement beyond that case would make the category Current.

[waiting]

Q - any thing from ur source beside when VB will be out?

[pdmay2008]

Nothing wrong in conveying your message. But most of us here believe in numbers and facts around the numbers.

[soggadu]

ok guys.... what do you suggest...

PD Oct 22 2007 Eb2 I...Shall i book my appointment for medicals? I know if the dates move , there will lot of people looking to get the medicals done... on the down side the medicals are eligible for certain time only...so what do you guys suggest???

[victorian]

I am just a messenger..don't shoot the messenger.. I would have to ditch my source if the info turns out false..

I am assuming that your source has been reliable so far?

[iamdeb]

Very logically put Spec.
Totally agree with your point.

[veni001]

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

Q - any thing from ur source beside when VB will be out?

Today/Tomorrow.

[dontcareaboutGC]

Spec- Logically and lawfully your points make sense- CIS/ DOS specially since they are answerable and we are not...but who is going to question them if they move the cutoff to Dec 2008?

imdeng,

I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this point.

The Cut Off Date is established by the last case that cannot be allocated a visa.

In theory at least, if there is just one case more than the number of available visas, the Cut Off Date will become the PD of that case.

If there are more visas than there are qualified cases, then there is no Cut Off Date and the category is Current.



The point is that it is not no time. Even for CP cases, which can be adjudicated faster than AOS cases, it does take some time.

Since there are, to our knowledge, no cases with a PD beyond about mid 2008 that might be qualified to immediately issue a visa to, any movement beyond that case would make the category Current.

[immitrickz]

I am assuming that your source has been reliable so far?

We will soon find out..

[qblogfan]

who is your source? your attorney?

did he/she provide reliable information before?

this is no joke, you have to be serious about what you say.

I am just a messenger..don't shoot the messenger.. I would have to ditch my source if the info turns out false..

[kpt112107]

Already 3 PM. No update @ http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_1360.html

[qesehmk]

I am saying the same. I am just a messenger on behalf of whoever will actually shoot you down!! Hey just kidding. Actually I should thank you for the info.

I just wanted to point out that the information runs contrary to the calculations. So bigger the surprise ... the source will gain bigger credibility right?

I am just a messenger..don't shoot the messenger.. I would have to ditch my source if the info turns out false..

[victorian]

We will soon find out..

But, what about his past record?

[immitrickz]

Nothing wrong in conveying your message. But most of us here believe in numbers and facts around the numbers.

Absolutely..this forum excels and differentiates itself from plethora of other such forums..sole reason why i visit it so often..

[immitrickz]

Wow..Managed to get a Database Error.. Everyone already started hating me

Database error
The database has encountered a problem.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Please try the following:
•Load the page again by clicking the Refresh button in your web browser.
•Open the www.qesehmk.org home page, then try to open another page.
•Click the Back button to try another link.

The www.qesehmk.org forum technical staff have been notified of the error, though you may contact them if the problem persists.

We apologise for any inconvenience.