Amen, lets hope it comes today.Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for the information
Amen, lets hope it comes today.
Thanks for the information
I like the Quote from the Identity theft company(Credit report).
"No news is good news"
I hope it holds same here.
Thanks for your information!
I think it's possible that there will be a huge movement or minimum movement. Let's see.
Q - I agree with you and my sense is that DoS/USCIS have no choice but to take a large intake by Sept'11. The way I am seeing the publishing of Demand Data this month after the gap last month is that DOS/USCIS have determined that the numbers actually meet their policy objectives and they don't need to hide it anymore. That objective, in my mind, is that of taking a large intake - which would have been difficult if the demand data showed some demand left in Sept. I think that they are now convinced that they have 10K numbers this year to finish the remaining demand and hence would be able to push forward in Sept - so no harm done by publishing the demand data.
Now, we can argue that if you are taking a future demand intake - then why restrict it to 1 year - why not take an intake to say 2010 and have complete visibility for next couple years. This is less controversial than making it C and still meets the purpose of providing relief to people stuck in limbo of waiting to file 485. The concern that this will swamp USCIS is really not valid - USCIS does not need to process everything right away - they just need to store them until the PD becomes current. Further, they process a million GC every year - another 100K applications will not really overstretch them materially.
This summer has been one of pleasant surprises - I expect the trend to continue. I am boldly projecting EB2IC cutoff of 15-Aug-2007 in the Aug VB. If that happens then I am (even more boldly) projecting EB2IC cutoff of 15-Aug-2010 in Sept VB. However, people - please don't get your hopes too high on my word - I am perhaps projecting what I wish should happen into what I think would happen.
see the first page of the forum, for Q's post about this acronyms and detailed logic about predictions.
Answer to the first is - most likely monthly.
Answer to teh second is - First they must look at EB as a whole then EB2 and then at country level.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thank our 'Source', hez still trying to help us after getting his/her GC. That is something
Thanks for your reply! Two thumbs up for your efforts!
Let's keep our fingers crossed.
As Teddy said, things have happened which were not expected so far, so no harm in expecting the unexpected.
mostly today afternoon around 3:00pm...
Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.
It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.
That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).
That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.
a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.
b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.
I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.
As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.
Last edited by Spectator; 07-11-2011 at 12:23 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
You probably havn't thought of this but i have been dreaming,wishing and dont know what else for this to happen (dates moving to 08 in Aug VB).
qblogfan,
1. According to the OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document, it is monthly:
but frankly I think they do what suits them best.VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment.
2. Again, depending on their aims, I suspect they will do what best fits.
The law only specifies the maximum number of visas that can be allocated in each of the first three quarters. There is no corresponding law stating a minimum. In theory, DOS don't have to allocate any visas in a given month. In theory, they can just wait to the known future demand comes on stream IMO.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I think it's very possible they may have significant movement in this August VB.
I looked at the family based VB and they moved the PD significantly in August 2010.
I think it's very likely this VB will move into 2008.
Thanks for your explanation! What you said makes sense.
Let's keep fingers crossed and wait for the August VB.
This is my first post in this forum. First of all Thanks to our GC Gurus (Spec,Q, Teddy and Veni) for their hard work in putting all their experience and perspectives on these predictions.
I wish all of us to become current, but that's not what I am hearing. Let us all hope for the best.
Spec- CIS/ DOS advanced the date for FB by 2 years when they arrived at a similar situation- I wonder what reasoning they were able to use then!!
Spec, I have been with this scenario since a while, I proposed bits and parts of it here earlier, but seeing not much agreement on this hypothesis, thought maybe it's just my PD coloring my view and biasing me. Now since VB can be out anytime, I am just letting the VB vindicate this view point. Let's see.
Spec,
I agree with your predictions. I am also thinking that in August VB dates might move to Dec 2007, this will give them an opportunity to assess the demand correctly. Depending upon the demand received in August, in September VB either they can advance the PD by couple of months or stay at Dec'07.
I agree it probably isn't totally explainable.
DOS should have better visibility of FB because most are Consular Processed and therefore at the NVC.
Because the wait times are so long and the people are not in the USA, there is a high attrition rate, so when their appointments became due, people simply didn't pursue it. The poor state of the US economy probably didn't help.
That would have led to visas being available but not enough demand and the Cut Off Dates had to be advanced.
At a certain point, people, especially those who hadn't been waiting quite as long, all responded and visa numbers available became less than demand. Some of the older PDs, who had put off final action probably thought we had better do something now, fearing all the visas would be used, adding to the numbers.
You're correct though, we can't entirely rule out an aggressive movement, although the fact that fee requests don't appear to have been sent out much beyond June 2008 seems to count against that.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - I think the fee requests represent the floor and not the ceiling. Fee requests indicate that they are ready to issue the visa in next few months - hence they can't send a fee request for a date too far in future. PD on the other hand, can go into future beyond the latest fee request.
Plus I don't think DoS/USCIS need too persuasive a rationale for being very aggressive in PDs. Something on the line of "Uncertainty regarding whether a significant number of PERM approvals will convert into 485 demand because of weaker economy and layoffs" will be enough I think. It is a policy decision and once they arrive at a policy it is not too difficult to find arguments to substantiate it.
Last edited by imdeng; 07-11-2011 at 01:22 PM.
Here is some shayari to cheer up everyone who is waiting
"Kaate Nahin Kat Te Lamhe Intezaar Ke, Nazaren Bichaein Baithe Hain Raste Pe Yaar Ke"
My prediction for this VB : July 01 2007
Spec,
You are correct, here is the explanation provided by DOS regarding rapid FB movement last year.
"There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates."
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
And I think this is exactly what they are doing right now, thinking of what wording to put, and that is why no VB so far
Last edited by nishant2200; 07-11-2011 at 01:26 PM.
Veni,
Thanks for digging that up.
I must have subliminally remembered it!
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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