EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[grnwtg]

Looking at the demand numbers for EB2-I, till Jan1st 2008 it has a demand of 6400. By Jan 1st 2011 EB2-I has a demand of 6525. Does anyone know how they got 125 applications between Jan 2008 to Jan 2011 as EB2-I PD never went into 2008?

I might be wrong here, but i know few cases where their spouses applied I485 after 2008( their spouses priority dates in < July 2007). I guess these numbers are count of applicants from Jan'2008 to now.

[Stemcell]

When i compare June 2011 demand data to August demand data i see that EB2C came down from 9250 to 4125 and EB2I came down from 20,350 to 6525.
It looks like DOS/USCIS is making sure India and China are on the same page.
Is there a rule to keep retrogressed countries at around the same priority date?

[iamdeb]

Deb,

The figures are cumulative, so the actual numbers beyond 2007 become:

China - 75
India - 125
ROW - 200

These figures have remained fairly constant over the months, so I believe they represent the rolling monthly number of CP cases that become Documentarily Qualified for ROW and have not yet had the interview and Documentarily Qualified CP cases for China and India with a PD later than the current Cut Off date.

Some of them may have reached that state in July 2007 and been waiting ever since. I'm not convinced they yet include the cases that were recently sent fee notices.

Thanks for the clarification Spec. Now it makes better sense to me.

[grnwtg]

When i compare June 2011 demand data to August demand data i see that EB2C came down from 9250 to 4125 and EB2I came down from 20,350 to 6525.
It looks like DOS/USCIS is making sure India and China are on the same page.
Is there a rule to keep retrogressed countries at around the same priority date?

I guess there is one, but not sure if its legal binded or not.

[veni001]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Spec, this is a testimony to u guys calculations. Spot on.

Wov, only 10.5 k to go. Man that's not much, that's my first feeling.

I am glad that we are on track!

[Spectator]

When i compare June 2011 demand data to August demand data i see that EB2C came down from 9250 to 4125 and EB2I came down from 20,350 to 6525.
It looks like DOS/USCIS is making sure India and China are on the same page.
Is there a rule to keep retrogressed countries at around the same priority date?

Stemcell,

The spare visas are being allocated under Section 202(a)(5) to both China and India.

The visas have to be allocated on a strictly PD basis, so the Cut Off Date has to be the same for both Countries.

CO explained in the May VB why China and India had different Cut Off Dates despite Section 202(a)(5). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5424.html (see Section D)

In May it was in operation for India alone, but China had not used their 7% allocation and could have a later PD.

From June, both Countries have been using visas under Section 202(a)(5) and therefore must share the same Cut Off Date.

CO mentioned in the June VB http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5452.html (section D) that "The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference."

[28thJune2007]

Latest demand data says "Demand Data Used in the Determination of the August 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates"
Does this mean they have already made the decision for Aug VB ? May be we can see the bulletin today.

[Stemcell]

Stemcell,

The spare visas are being allocated under Section 202(a)(5) to both China and India.

The visas have to be allocated on a strictly PD basis, so the Cut Off Date has to be the same for both Countries.

CO explained in the May VB why China and India had different Cut Off Dates despite Section 202(a)(5). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5424.html (see Section D)

In May it was in operation for India alone, but China had not used their 7% allocation and could have a later PD.

From June, both Countries have been using visas under Section 202(a)(5) and therefore must share the same Cut Off Date.

CO mentioned in the June VB http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5452.html (section D) that "The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference."

Thank you Spec
Again its very complicated for me...i am fine as long as the numbers of India are going down

[Stemcell]

Yes there is a rule when Spillover is issued to retrogessed countries , Visas should be alloted in PD ascending order wise . Spillover Visas are not split equally. For example when 10,000 nos to be shared between I and C , Visas cannot be issued like 5000+5000. Instead they combine both I and C demand together and start alloting Visas according to earlier PD wise. During this allocation , when 10000 visas finished up , the very first I and C applicant who was not alloted Visa will have the same PD.

Thank you Kanmani.
Always learning something new.

[TeddyKoochu]

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. The demand data confirms that USCIS will be able to or has been able to attach cap numbers to all cases current in July.
By a conservative calculation only 8K SOFAD is left while demand data indicates 10.5 preadjudicated cases are left. Now for the upcoming bulletin I believe that they should go full blast and allocate the 6-8K numbers bringing the dates to the range 01-JUN-2007 (6K) to 01-JUL-2007.

Now coming to new intake though this is completely in the hypothetical domain, the NVC fee receipts should be the guideline. By those standards it should be end of Q1 20008 which is 03/31/2008, I would say anyone with a PD in 2007 is virtually sure of being part of the next intake. I believe that this intake must happen soon but when is entirely hypothetical. Most people believe that it will be either in Aug - Sep 2011 if not it will get delayed to May 2012. Lets wait and watch.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007 for Aug 2011.

[MeraNoAayega]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Data as fo Aug 10,2011....

WOW that is impressive.... Looks like USCIS approve and send out lots of GC's in the last 2 months...

[sunny4gc]

Is there a chance that my PD 12/07 will be current by AUG bulletin?

[leo4ever]

Hi,

Demand data will have data of those who already filed I-485. So far for EB2 dates have reached until Jul 2007 (Mamimum; when current). There are so many people who applied for I-140 but haven't filed for 485 yet as their dates are not current. Once the know demand data (10K+) we have now is used they might move dates for 6 months to an year so that they can get move i-485 and thus they showup on demand data file again and USCIS can work on it.

To check how many people are waiting after Jul 2007, use PERM data

-Leo

I am familiar but not so much with the whole demand data/Visa bullettin etc. I tried to go back as much as I could to catch up but have some questions..

I also have the same question. What does this number 10000 odd mean? How do they know how many ppl waitin in line after 2007 ?

[neospeed]

A few quick observations:
1. The demand data doesnt include cases upto Mar 8 2007, implies the cases were applied visa numbers as soon as they became current. So expect the same for whoever next becomes current.
2. The demand for EB2 is ~10K ... so its very much possible that the dates could move much ahead of that in Sep.
3. Also based on demand for EB2 our predictions are on track and it seems we all are doing kumbaya as far as Jun 2007 is concerned for Aug 2007.
4. Kudos to Spec for pointing out the EB3 reduction. In reality the conversion is more .... but i think its just not reflected in the data.
5. No news from source yet. Lets wait a few more hours.






Agree here. Could be upto first week of Jul 2007. But that's a minor difference.

Thanks Q for your analysis. Do they usually release VB same day as demand data? how was the historical pattern?

[soggadu]

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

[qesehmk]

I haven't kept track. But my memory says usually next day.

Thanks Q for your analysis. Do they usually release VB same day as demand data? how was the historical pattern?

[qesehmk]

Amen! Tathaastu!

i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

[nishant2200]

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

AMEN.

God bless!

[RMS_V13]

Hello:

Sorry to digress..What if my PD is current and I am in India and cannot travel immediately? Can I apply for processing from the US embassy in India? What are my options?

Know this is not a legal advice

Update : Me is not the principal applicant

[imdeng]

Following is the reduction in EB3I demand from the last demand data two months back. The important figure is the last column - incremental reduction.

Year--July-10'2011--May-09'2011--Reduction--Incremental Reduction
2002--20--25--5--0
2003--6400--6900--500--495
2004--18325--19000--675--175
2005--32150--33050--900--225
2006--41125--42125--1000--100
2007--52125--53250--1125--125

If we consider any reduction in years 2004-2007 as a result of EB3->2 upgrades, then we get a total of (175+225+100+125) = 625 porting cases in two months. Now, it is possible that some of the 2003 reduction is porting as well - but that number is unlikely to be large.

This indicates that porting continues to be within reasonable limits.

[soggadu]

Amen! Tathaastu!

Thank you sir ji.... my PD is OCT 22 2007... have been waiting... i know my wait is not much in comparison...

[mpurna77]

Very impressive analysis and calculations guys, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate and analytical. your predictions are very accurate with some basis.

I think you should be in Economic Reform Team to protect this country and world from this economic conditions.:-)

Great Job guys..Thank you.

[qesehmk]

Very good. Thanks imdeng.

Following is the reduction in EB3I demand from the last demand data two months back. The important figure is the last column - incremental reduction.

Year--July-10'2011--May-09'2011--Reduction--Incremental Reduction
2002--20--25--5--0
2003--6400--6900--500--495
2004--18325--19000--675--125
2005--32150--33050--900--225
2006--41125--42125--1000--100
2007--52125--53250--1125--125

If we consider any reduction in years 2004-2007 as a result of EB3->2 upgrades, then we get a total of (125+225+100+125) = 575 porting cases in two months. Now, it is possible that some of the 2003 reduction is porting as well - but that number is unlikely to be large.

This indicates that porting continues to be within reasonable limits.

You need to come back if you want to file AOS. That's what my wife had to do when we filed ours in 2007.

Hello:

Sorry to digress..What if my PD is current and I am in India and cannot travel immediately? Can I apply for processing from the US embassy in India? What are my options?

Know this is not a legal advice

Update : Me is not the principal applicant

[belmontboy]

Thank you sir ji.... my PD is OCT 22 2007... have been waiting... i know my wait is not much in comparison...

My PD is 8 days later than your's

[goforgreen]

Thanks Q, Teddy and Spec on your thoughts. With 12/2007 priority date I'll be eagerly waiting for the bulletin and your analysis ( or guidance?? like what companies give for the next quarter and year). Thanks a lot for your time and efforts in making predictions and calculations based on numbers and not shots in the dark or wishful thinking.

Q and Teddy -> I'm following your predictions from Immigration Voice site. Thanks a lot for your time, efforts and passion towards this. Also thanks a lot to Spectator and Veni for joining in Q and Teddy's efforts and making this site a very positive one where everyone respects one another. I used to visit other sites for info and news but now I've stopped visiting those alltogether. This is because here I dont have to go through pages of fights, bad behaviour, irrelevent posts to get to useful information that gives some hope.

Hats off to you guys, VDLRao was predictions 1.0 who started predictions with what ever data was available. You guys are Predictions 2.0 with numbers based intelligent predictions and calculations