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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #3651
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    You need to add 5.6K EB2IC quota to that.
    But hasn't the 5.6K (at least 2.8K for EB2-I) been consumed till April'07 for EB3->EB2 porting and any prior EB2-I pending applications?

  2. #3652
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    But hasn't the 5.6K (at least 2.8K for EB2-I) been consumed till April'07 for EB3->EB2 porting and any prior EB2-I pending applications?
    pch053,
    You are correct 2.8k EB2I allocation was utilized until April 2011 to clear porting + pending cases until 08MAY2006.
    Similarly, 2.8k EB2C allocation was utilized until June 2011 to clear porting + pending cases until 01AUG2006.
    Which means, we saw an additional ~21k movement+porting numbers(if any, since April 2011) as of July 2011 Bulitten, based on 10-01-2010 inventory.

    Total VISA numbers allocated to EB2IC before AUG2011VB ~= 5.6k+21k ~= 27k
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  3. #3653
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    Just clarifying: I think we have used approx 24K spillovers so far (3K for May, 9K for June and 12K for July). This chart shows the spillover range between 26K - 32K. So, if we go by the pessimistic estimate, then we only have 2K spillover left and the expected spillover (based on last year's trackitt approval trend) is 8K. Am I interpreting the data correctly here?

    For another 8K spillover, the dates can move around 4 months or up to 8th July'07. If we have only 2K spillover left, it will move only a month or so. But, I think I might be missing something here as the worst case scenario still says May'07.
    pch,

    I look at it slightly differently, like veni using the October Inventory.

    To reach 08MAR07 EB2-IC required 23k visas. If we add on 5k for porting/pwmb then EB2-IC needs 28k to reach 08MAR07.

    Q's figures of 26-32k Spillover translate to 31.6 - 37.6k SOFAD.

    That leaves 3.6 - 9.6k left for August/September.

    At the bottom end that is enough to reach May 07 and the top end well into July 07.

    My take anyway.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  4. #3654
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Thanks Veni, Spec and Q for the detailed explanation and it surely clarified my doubts. Another 3.6K - 9.6K makes perfect sense and it translates to May'07 to mid/late July'07 range. This also explains why ~8K is taken as the consensus as the reality is probably somewhere between 3.6 and 9.6K.
    Last edited by pch053; 07-10-2011 at 09:22 PM.

  5. #3655
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    August Demand Data Out!

    The latest Demand Data is out!

    Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

    http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  6. #3656
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The latest Demand Data is out!

    Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

    http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
    Spec, this is a testimony to u guys calculations. Spot on.

    Wov, only 10.5 k to go. Man that's not much, that's my first feeling.

  7. #3657
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The latest Demand Data is out!

    Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

    http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
    Great. So are we going to get VB today itself ?. Does anything change with our predictions?.

  8. #3658
    Also have to say, great job USCIS.

    I feel that DOS in fact has a demand vs visas release model and for demand u need inventory. Really hopeful they grab a year's worth.

  9. #3659
    Looks like we'll have just about enough SOFAD to clear EB2 IC thru to July 07 - as Q pointed out, don't think there will be #s left for EB3 spillover. Probably means less pressure for them to make EB2 current?

  10. #3660
    Did anybody notice that EB-3 Phillipines has a demand of zero! It makes me wonder.....

  11. #3661
    it says demand till 1 Jan 2008 is about ~10K ...so if they have around 4-8K then lower end could be May/Jun and upper end could be oct/nov.....right?

    Regards
    Nat

  12. #3662
    Q , this is my first post on this forum. Did u get any clue from your source yet ? seems like data is out and we may see bulletin today.

  13. #3663

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by neospeed View Post
    Great. So are we going to get VB today itself ?. Does anything change with our predictions?.
    Hi,

    I am new to this forum and this might be a dumb question.

    What does the last row for 2011 imply?

    January 1, 2011 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

    Thanks,
    Deb

  14. #3664
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Hi,

    I am new to this forum and this might be a dumb question.

    What does the last row for 2011 imply?

    January 1, 2011 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

    Thanks,
    Deb
    I guess those are from the countries that are current. Hence year 2011 for them

  15. #3665
    Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.

    Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
    1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

    What does it imply?
    Last edited by iamdeb; 07-11-2011 at 08:48 AM. Reason: typo

  16. #3666
    Maybe CP demand for fee notices replied to in 2008. Not sure if CP is included here.

    It may also be porters who have ported and their old PD are still not registered.

    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.

    Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
    1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

    What does it imply?

  17. #3667
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.

    Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
    1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

    What does it imply?
    Sum of the other columns?
    4125 + 6525 + 125 = 10775

  18. #3668
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    Did anybody notice that EB-3 Phillipines has a demand of zero! It makes me wonder.....
    kd,

    Just another cock up I think. Quite common for the Demand Data.

    The missing spaces are blank not zero.

    In any case, it is impossible for EB3-P to have received visas beyond 2005 because ROW-P Cut Off Date limits them.

    In addition, the overall EB 7% limit would come into play.

    Historically, when there are errors, the table is not updated and uploaded. I hope this will be an exception.

    PS:- I also noticed that EB3-I numbers later than 2002 have reduced by a net 625 since the last Demand Data report (presumably porting cases in the main?).
    Last edited by Spectator; 07-11-2011 at 08:57 AM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  19. #3669
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.

    Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
    1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

    What does it imply?
    It implies that there are 10,775 applicants who are wating for visa number ( Till 2011 Jan) to get their GC, out of them 4125 are from china , 6525 are from Indian and 125 from other countries.
    You cannot take count of 2011 Jan for India and China as priority dates got retrogressed for these countries. For example, China as 4125 applicants pending till July'2007 ( probably few more) and not Jan 2011.

    I understand this is what you are asking.

  20. #3670
    Quote Originally Posted by grnwtg View Post
    It implies that there are 10,775 applicants who are wating for visa number ( Till 2011 Jan) to get their GC, out of them 4125 are from china , 6525 are from Indian and 125 from other countries.
    You cannot take count of 2011 Jan for India and China as priority dates got retrogressed for these countries. For example, China as 4125 applicants pending till July'2007 ( probably few more) and not Jan 2011.

    I understand this is what you are asking.
    Yes you got the import of my question.
    How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
    Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.

  21. #3671
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The latest Demand Data is out!

    Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

    http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
    Looking at the demand numbers for EB2-I, till Jan1st 2008 it has a demand of 6400. By Jan 1st 2011 EB2-I has a demand of 6525. Does anyone know how they got 125 applications between Jan 2008 to Jan 2011 as EB2-I PD never went into 2008?

  22. #3672
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Yes you got the import of my question.
    How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
    Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.
    Nope, after July'2007 - priority dates for India have retrogressed. There are lot of applicants from India From July 2007 to till date (another 3k to 5k applicant before July'2007) who got their I140 approved but waiting to file I485 and these numbers are not counted yet.

    Example: In next bulletin if priority date of India move to June'2008, we can expect atleast 15,000 new Indian applicants.( rought estimates but Gurus here have given right number ealier)

  23. #3673
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Hi,

    I am new to this forum and this might be a dumb question.

    What does the last row for 2011 imply?
    January 1, 2011 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

    Thanks,
    Deb
    Deb,

    The figures are cumulative, so the actual numbers beyond 2007 become:

    China - 75
    India - 125
    ROW - 200

    These figures have remained fairly constant over the months, so I believe they represent the rolling monthly number of CP cases that become Documentarily Qualified for ROW and have not yet had the interview and Documentarily Qualified CP cases for China and India with a PD later than the current Cut Off date.

    Some of them may have reached that state in July 2007 and been waiting ever since because they became documentarily qualified, but the Cut Off dates retrogressed before the interview date could be set.

    I'm not convinced they yet include the cases that were recently sent fee notices.
    Last edited by Spectator; 07-11-2011 at 09:13 AM.
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  24. #3674
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Yes you got the import of my question.
    How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
    Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.
    If I am not mistaken, 6400 is the number of people who have yet to be assigned a visa and filed before the dates retrogressed in July 2007. I am guessing that the 125 comes from porting to EB2 from EB3 and spouses who were able to file once dates got current (for people who were not married in 2007).
    Last edited by victorian; 07-11-2011 at 09:14 AM. Reason: Math!!

  25. #3675
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Yes you got the import of my question.
    How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
    Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.
    I am familiar but not so much with the whole demand data/Visa bullettin etc. I tried to go back as much as I could to catch up but have some questions..

    I also have the same question. What does this number 10000 odd mean? How do they know how many ppl waitin in line after 2007 ?

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