EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[angryclubs]

Trackitt is showing approvals for today i.e. Saturday. Good that USCIS is working on weekends

[qblogfan]

I saw many China EB2 got approved today with PD as late as March 2007.

It looks like that many EB2 are approved already. After PD March 7, 2007 there should be only 10k demand left.

Trackitt is showing approvals for today i.e. Saturday. Good that USCIS is working on weekends

[nishant2200]

I saw many China EB2 got approved today with PD as late as March 2007.

It looks like that many EB2 are approved already. After PD March 7, 2007 there should be only 10k demand left.

qblogfan, are you saying they are claiming that they approval date is today, or they just see the card today in their mailbox. on trackitt, for India, I do see around 8-9 approvals posted by people, which they claim approval date is 7/9 i.e. today saturday.

if indeed, people are getting approval date notifications of today, it means USCIS is working on the weekend. Now, what can we interpret from that.

A thought from me.

The workload is quite high, lots of eligible demand, but also lots of available visas, and they do want to assign as much current people they can, because they know next month, more will be current, and more visas are going to be available. That is why the extra push and effort.

Now, if such was above, then why not just release the visa bulletin on friday, why wait for the inevitable. Maybe there is a good faith rule adhered by them, that they will work n number of work days, and realize a certain pattern of assignment and demand, before they officially release, what is in fact already decided.

Again, this is just my thoughts on the positive side. Of course, the truth is not known to me.

qblogfan, 10k is not much left. I am really hopeful that folks in USCIS, DOS, have realized that adjudication takes time, and they will need to take fresh intake, if they want to give the appropriate spillover to EB2 I/C next year. If they have not realized this, or taken this into account in their policy matters, I am really afraid that next year's spillover, which may not be as high as this year, might go to EB3 ROW and EB2 I/C just get EADs.

[pch053]

From 8th March to mid-Aug'07, there are nearly 11K (few hundred less) EB2-I/C applications that are pending. As seen in the predictions, we might not have another 11K spillover available. The consensus is more towards 8K but no one can exactly say the actual number. We also need to keep in mind that there was a significant number of pending EB2-ROW and EB1 applications from the June data (around 10K EB1 and 9K EB2-ROW). Out of these, a decent percentage of applications is from 2010. So, I will expect those getting approved unless there is any complication with the specific case. The PDs that will be cleared for EB2-I/C will be anywhere between June'07 - Aug'07 (which has been mentioned in earlier posts also).

With all this being said, I do think USCIS needs to advance the dates to 2008 to take in new applications and create a buffer pool. This depends entirely on their policy rather than visa availability; so all we can do is wait for few more days for the Aug bulletin. As Q mentioned in his earlier posts, even if the dates move to 2008 (probably in Sep bulletin, if that happens), it doesn't imply that all pending PDs up to Aug'07 will be cleared as the sole purpose of advancing the dates will be to create the buffer of applications.

[qblogfan]

nishant2200, I saw several Chinese EB2 got emails today. It looks like they are working on Saturday.

At the same time, a bunch Chinese EB2 got GC in mail without email notification. Around 30 Chinese EB2 reported green today and yesterday.

The PDs range from Oct.2006 to March 2007. The latest one I saw is March 5, 2007.

qblogfan, are you saying they are claiming that they approval date is today, or they just see the card today in their mailbox. on trackitt, for India, I do see around 8-9 approvals posted by people, which they claim approval date is 7/9 i.e. today saturday.

if indeed, people are getting approval date notifications of today, it means USCIS is working on the weekend. Now, what can we interpret from that.

A thought from me.

The workload is quite high, lots of eligible demand, but also lots of available visas, and they do want to assign as much current people they can, because they know next month, more will be current, and more visas are going to be available. That is why the extra push and effort.

Now, if such was above, then why not just release the visa bulletin on friday, why wait for the inevitable. Maybe there is a good faith rule adhered by them, that they will work n number of work days, and realize a certain pattern of assignment and demand, before they officially release, what is in fact already decided.

Again, this is just my thoughts on the positive side. Of course, the truth is not known to me.

qblogfan, 10k is not much left. I am really hopeful that folks in USCIS, DOS, have realized that adjudication takes time, and they will need to take fresh intake, if they want to give the appropriate spillover to EB2 I/C next year. If they have not realized this, or taken this into account in their policy matters, I am really afraid that next year's spillover, which may not be as high as this year, might go to EB3 ROW and EB2 I/C just get EADs.

[getgreened2010]

Got the CPO (Card Production Ordered) email yesterday.
Priority Date: 12/27/2006
Country: India
Service Centre: TSC

Thanks to all the gurus who gave us peace of mind, especially Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni001.....I have been following Q and Teddy from immigrationvoice......and I want to thank them for their contribution......all the best to rest of the folks....hope you guys get greened pretty soon.

[pch053]

So far, I see 57 approvals in trackitt for the month of July with 41 of them from TSC and 16 from NSC. Is the distribution of applicants even between these two centers? The # of approvals seem to be biased in favor of TSC over NSC but this might just be a random coincidence.

[nishant2200]

nishant2200, I saw several Chinese EB2 got emails today. It looks like they are working on Saturday.

At the same time, a bunch Chinese EB2 got GC in mail without email notification. Around 30 Chinese EB2 reported green today and yesterday.

The PDs range from Oct.2006 to March 2007. The latest one I saw is March 5, 2007.

Guys, have we seen this earlier, them working on a weekend. Anything we should be happy/concerned about, any thoughts about why they are working on a saturday, if they are.

[veni001]

So far, I see 57 approvals in trackitt for the month of July with 41 of them from TSC and 16 from NSC. Is the distribution of applicants even between these two centers? The # of approvals seem to be biased in favor of TSC over NSC but this might just be a random coincidence.

pch053,
Both TSC & NSC show almost same number of pre-adjudicated cases. NCS got more 485 receipts and completions in the last two quarters.

[Spectator]

Previously, there was a good discussion about the numbers of Trackitt applications for recent movements in the VB.

It noted that these appeared to be lower than the overall numbers for movement in FY2010 and the number of "real world" approvals per Trackitt approval would therefore be higher.

I have added a second running total column to the EB2-I figures at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010

From June onwards it attempts to take account of the number of applications in Trackitt vs the movement in the VB.

Also, as I had noted in the text, CO's comments in the May VB could be interpreted as EB2-I reaching the 7% limit either in March or April. The existing figure uses the more conservative approach, whereas the new column is more aggressive in the interpretation.

Cum. No. 2 tries to take into account that months that have become Current in FY2011 may have different Trackitt % to the overall FY2010 figure. From June onwards, these become potentially significant. It also assumes that the 7% limit was reached in March 2011. Please recognize that trying to convert Trackitt approvals to total "real world" approvals is an imprecise science.

Because it assumes that all pending Trackitt cases will be approved (which probably isn't true), it might still understate the real numbers. Be aware of that and accept that it is the best I can do currently. Remember that all the figures are just "best attempts" and subject to quite wide error margins. Please view them with that in mind.

[qesehmk]

Trackitt trends updated. The trend has deteriorated. The worst case scenario is still May 2007 for EB2I. The best case being Aug 2007. But now I do not think there will be anything given to EB3. Check it out.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

[Monica12]

Trackitt trends updated. The trend has deteriorated. The worst case scenario is still May 2007 for EB2I. The best case being Aug 2007. But now I do not think there will be anything given to EB3. Check it out.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

Q, I'm a little confused, worst case May 2007 for EB2I.... is this for Aug VB or this fiscal year. Thank you.

[qesehmk]

Both.

Additional movement (if any) in Sep/Oct will be towards intaking additional applications rather than backlog clearance if FY 2011.

Q, I'm a little confused, worst case May 2007 for EB2I.... is this for Aug VB or this fiscal year. Thank you.

[qblogfan]

Yesterday and Friday totally 31 Chinese EB2 got approved.

14 from NSC and 17 from TSC. It looks like both of these two centers are working hard.

pch053,
Both TSC & NSC show almost same number of pre-adjudicated cases. NCS got more 485 receipts and completions in the last two quarters.

[pch053]

Both.

Additional movement (if any) in Sep/Oct will be towards intaking additional applications rather than backlog clearance if FY 2011.

Q,
This is more for my understanding of USCIS behavior in relation to advancing dates. Lets say we have X spillovers remaining where X can be anything up to 11K with 8K being the average consensus as of now. So, will USCIS advance the dates to advance so that the entire quota of X can be approved in the Aug bulletin itself? Or, will they advance the dates to consume a portion of X (say 80%) in the Aug bulletin and leave the remaining (20%) for the Sep bulletin. I am thinking of this possibility as there are significant number of pending EB1 and EB2-ROW applications even from 2010 and USCIS might exercise some caution while moving the dates.

If we go by last year's movement, the dates advanced by similar amounts in July and Aug bulletin (~5 months) and advanced a bit (albeit much less, ~2 months) for the Sep bulletin. We know this year's situation is different as there is the possibility of dates moving forward for taking in new applications; so, it might not directly correlate to 2010.

[qesehmk]

Wherever they move dates in August ... I believe everybody should get a visa this year itself. The movement in September though doesn't mean everybody who is current gets a visa.

Q,
This is more for my understanding of USCIS behavior in relation to advancing dates. Lets say we have X spillovers remaining where X can be anything up to 11K with 8K being the average consensus as of now. So, will USCIS advance the dates to advance so that the entire quota of X can be approved in the Aug bulletin itself? Or, will they advance the dates to consume a portion of X (say 80%) in the Aug bulletin and leave the remaining (20%) for the Sep bulletin. I am thinking of this possibility as there are significant number of pending EB1 and EB2-ROW applications even from 2010 and USCIS might exercise some caution while moving the dates.

If we go by last year's movement, the dates advanced by similar amounts in July and Aug bulletin (~5 months) and advanced a bit (albeit much less, ~2 months) for the Sep bulletin. We know this year's situation is different as there is the possibility of dates moving forward for taking in new applications; so, it might not directly correlate to 2010.

[Pdmar08]

New user ..first post.. Love the forum....thank you gurus.

I am curbing my enthu after being almost positive to be C this year, neways.

Wanted to throw this in, could USCIS be working on the weekend due to possibility of govt shutdown later in the month?
Not sure if this is connected or if it is considered essential service.

[veni001]

New user ..first post.. Love the forum....thank you gurus.

I am curbing my enthu after being almost positive to be C this year, neways.

Wanted to throw this in, could USCIS be working on the weekend due to possibility of govt shutdown later in the month?
Not sure if this is connected or if it is considered essential service.

Pdmar08,
Welcome! Most of them are e-mail updates from the system.

[nishant2200]

New user ..first post.. Love the forum....thank you gurus.

I am curbing my enthu after being almost positive to be C this year, neways.

Wanted to throw this in, could USCIS be working on the weekend due to possibility of govt shutdown later in the month?
Not sure if this is connected or if it is considered essential service.

I am myself trying to wreck my brains over why they worked on saturday.

But it's not because if any govt shutdown. The federal budget is already passed for this FY. Also, USCIS is funded by user fees and hence AOS won't be affected.

What would be affected in a shutdown is PERM since DOL does not charge for labor, as well as consulates abroad would not issue visas.

I think we can relax. Also March 2008 is still a possibility this year in sep oct or nov.

[28thJune2007]

Any chances of VB coming out on Monday ?

[veni001]

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

Any chances of VB coming out on Monday ?

28thJune2007,
Nope, most likely it will be Wed/Thu.

[28thJune2007]

Thanks Veni

I hope we get some indications from Q's source though

[pch053]

Trackitt trends updated. The trend has deteriorated. The worst case scenario is still May 2007 for EB2I. The best case being Aug 2007. But now I do not think there will be anything given to EB3. Check it out.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

Just clarifying: I think we have used approx 24K spillovers so far (3K for May, 9K for June and 12K for July). This chart shows the spillover range between 26K - 32K. So, if we go by the pessimistic estimate, then we only have 2K spillover left and the expected spillover (based on last year's trackitt approval trend) is 8K. Am I interpreting the data correctly here?

For another 8K spillover, the dates can move around 4 months or up to 8th July'07. If we have only 2K spillover left, it will move only a month or so. But, I think I might be missing something here as the worst case scenario still says May'07.

[qesehmk]

You need to add 5.6K EB2IC quota to that.

Just clarifying: I think we have used approx 24K spillovers so far (3K for May, 9K for June and 12K for July). This chart shows the spillover range between 26K - 32K. So, if we go by the pessimistic estimate, then we only have 2K spillover left and the expected spillover (based on last year's trackitt approval trend) is 8K. Am I interpreting the data correctly here?

For another 8K spillover, the dates can move around 4 months or up to 8th July'07. If we have only 2K spillover left, it will move only a month or so. But, I think I might be missing something here as the worst case scenario still says May'07.

[neospeed]

You need to add 5.6K EB2IC quota to that.

So we got around 24k - 5.6k = 18.4k from other categories so far ( eb5/eb1/eb2 row) ?