EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Teddy,

Agree about August, but I believe DOS must move the dates beyond August 2007 in the September 2011 VB.

Otherwise, once we are in FY2012, the initial limits apply and DOS will be constrained by only moving as far as the 253rd applicant to whom a visa is available in a month, or 758th if you consider the quarter as a whole.

Existing PWMB and Porting cases from FY2011 movement that are adjudicated in FY2012 can use up that number.

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

As has been pointed out, moving the dates in September 2011 gives the maximum possible time to preadjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in FY2012.

That, in part, is why I don't think they want complete transparency about the actual demand left to fulfil.

Another viewpoint at least.

Spec,
I am back...

FY 2011 USCIS used all 2.8k(7%) allocation in the first two quarters itself(averaging 500 month) for EB2I.
If EB1 demand continue similar to this year then USCIS may issue 500 per month to EB2I again in FY2012!

[Spectator]

Spec thanks for posting this, this is good information I believe you posted it earlier as well. So in reality it’s legally untenable to move the dates to have say a year’s worth on intake in early / mid FY 2012. Let’s hope then it happens in September because otherwise if the fresh intake is delayed to Q3 / Q4 2012 there will be insufficient time to adjudicate the newly filed EB2 cases. Let’s wait and watch really looks like the coming 2 VB's will be really interesting.

Teddy,

We are talking about DOS, so anything is possible, but it strikes me that they might want to avoid that scenario.

They can get around that by announcing extra visas being available from EB1/2/5, but realistically it is difficult for them to do that any earlier than the May VB.

To me (and as you point out) that doesn't leave enough time to guarantee adjudication within the FY.

It may be that staying within the law is not something that DOS are concerned about, in which case they can do what they like, but it would open them up to cases brought by EB3, who might otherwise possibly get some spillover at the end of FY2012.

In addition, again theoretically, if they followed the law, they might run out of demand within EB2 and face the possibility of making it Current at the end of FY2012.

Conversely, EB3 could never prove that there was no basis for moving the dates beyond August 2007 in September 2011. That is a judgement call (consular return rate etc etc.)

It's as much a philosophical discussion point as one based on tangible facts.

The wait is killing me!

[July2007PD]

Spec.. same here wait is really horrible :-) Hope we get the bulletin soon. But one thing is amazing how you guys are dedicated to this blog answering every question that's just fantastic.

From our "sources" do we have any info on date movement, source was dead-on with the VB not coming out today. just curious

[qesehmk]

Teddy I am beginning to come to terms with Specs theory about EB3 spillover going to ROW before IC. Teddy your point about SOFAD spillover to EB3 is also well taken. The trackitt trend that I calculated under FACTS and DATA section gave me those numbers. The best case scsenario is still 39K SOFAD which can easily put us over Aug 2007. But that trend has certainly narrowed in last 1-2 months.

@spec - Looks like the way EB3 ROW is moving this year M & P may even exceed last year. I completely agree with you on the spillover logic. The version that you have in facts and data was even quoted by Sangiano recently. Unfortunately EB3-I is in a terrible situation they however did not lose anything though in the change of interpreation it w going to EB3-ROW earlier now EB2 I/C.

@q - I personaly believe that the version of fall down that spec has incase of a default the numbers will go to EB3 ROW is the correct one, maybe you would like to review thefirst post in light of that. Whether this situation of fall down will happen is another question the probability of that happening is less as we all are in agreement that true SOFAD left is ~ 8K and USCIS has a stockpile of EB2 ROW and EB1 Apps the totals are unprecedented atleast in the alst couple of years. I see that you have a probability of 30% for this scenario IMHO probably its only 10%. Another point to note is EB2 ROW aprovals are also coming quite regularly on Trackitt besides EB2 I.

Spec ... bow to you. I loved this thing that you have brought forth. The rule makes perfect sense ...if an area is oversubscribed then for an individual country to be separately identified the country has to be overly retrogressed compared to others. The not so funny thing is that they do not apply 7% rule for such countries. So that explains why S Korea gets 6-7K in EB2 and Mexico doesn't get as much in EB3.

Q,

The THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf mentions this (at the very end).



Therefore, EB3-M cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB3-ROW, however few remaining cases they might (or might not) have.

I think both are great guys (or girls!). But most likely they are different. The reason being I had never seen the kind of clarity of thought and depth of analysis that Spec brought to this forum. I don't know where he was hiding so long. May be I haven't read enough of Sangiano's writings. Sangiano by the way is very appreciate of teh work of this forum and is very kind in referring people to our site.

Do we still believe in here that Sangiano and Spectator are different? I am surprised. I believe they are same and share same level of knowledge and have similar writing style. I may be wrong but that is what I assumed through out this never ending immigration journey on this wonderful website. i beleive that is why we (atleast me) do not know his PD.. At end of the day it's all good, he is doing wonderful job and I admire his knowledge and passion.

imdeng kudos to you for saying that. That is the truth... we are not the center of universe and us getting a GC is nobody's concern. The sooner one realizes it .... the less frustrated s/he will feel.

Although we would like to think that we are the center of USCIS's world - we are actually a very small part of their caseload. There are more than 1 million green cards issued every year - EB accounts for only 140K of it. FB is much more important to USCIS from a workload point of view than is EB. Add to it the many millions of AOS requests, H1B Extensions, AP/EAD etc - and EB GC is a very small part of what USCIS does.

Spec you really believe that? Who is going to punish them if they do so? At the most they will get a slap on the wrist.

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

[pch053]

yup. crashed.

trackitt is up again; so far, we see around 25 approvals for the month of July (plus a few who reported it in the threads but didn't create or update their profile).

[Spectator]

Spec,
I am back...

FY 2011 USCIS used all 2.8k(7%) allocation in the first two quarters itself(averaging 500 month) for EB2I.
If EB1 demand continue similar to this year then USCIS may issue 500 per month to EB2I again in FY2012!

Veni,

An interesting insight.

The above is true (and they appear to have issued even more in FY2009) - DOS might claim that they did not violate the overall 27% limit for all Categories / Countries. But even 400 - 500 a month doesn't seem sufficient to make much headway with the EB2-IC Cut Off Dates IMO particularly as PWMB adjudications start to ramp up. The net extra numbers would still be relatively small.

Maybe it would be just enough to use up the CP cases to May/June 2008.

It might work, but it would be quite a risky move and still presents a timing problem to adjudicate the resulting AOS cases in time.

I'll have to think about it a bit more.

[Spectator]

Spec you really believe that? Who is going to punish them if they do so? At the most they will get a slap on the wrist.

Q,

DOS managed to get away with that in 2007.

Congress is not very appreciative of Departments that break the laws they set and a few representatives would probably like nothing better than to knock State around a bit.

It could also be a crushing blow to the perception of legal immigration.

I wouldn't dismiss it so lightly.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

We are talking about DOS, so anything is possible, but it strikes me that they might want to avoid that scenario.

They can get around that by announcing extra visas being available from EB1/2/5, but realistically it is difficult for them to do that any earlier than the May VB.

To me (and as you point out) that doesn't leave enough time to guarantee adjudication within the FY.

It may be that staying within the law is not something that DOS are concerned about, in which case they can do what they like, but it would open them up to cases brought by EB3, who might otherwise possibly get some spillover at the end of FY2012.

In addition, again theoretically, if they followed the law, they might run out of demand within EB2 and face the possibility of making it Current at the end of FY2012.

Conversely, EB3 could never prove that there was no basis for moving the dates beyond August 2007 in September 2011. That is a judgement call (consular return rate etc etc.)

It's as much a philosophical discussion point as one based on tangible facts.

The wait is killing me!

Spec you are right the discussion is more philosophical than numerical. I would also agree with Veni that EB2-I cap was fully burnt out much earlier. Now since there are no approval statistics published monthly but just an annual report so all that can be audited is whether the allocations were followed in he letter and spirit. Now in 2011 it probably will be ok. In 2012 if extra intake is not taken in 2011 there will surely be a conflict between the law and the letter and spirit because the adjudication process is slow, EB3 ROW will get the spillover for sure if EB2 intake is not done in a timely manner. It’s a matter of wait and watch now, the wait getting long for everyone of us.

[veni001]

Veni,

An interesting insight.

The above is true (and they appear to have issued even more in FY2009) - DOS might claim that they did not violate the overall 27% limit for all Categories / Countries. But even 400 - 500 a month doesn't seem sufficient to make much headway with the EB2-IC Cut Off Dates IMO particularly as PWMB adjudications start to ramp up. The net extra numbers would still be relatively small.

Maybe it would be just enough to use up the CP cases to May/June 2008.

It might work, but it would be quite a risky move and still presents a timing problem to adjudicate the resulting AOS cases in time.

I'll have to think about it a bit more.

Spec,
I think as long as monthly EB1 and EB2ROW usage is low, USCIS can try to use EB2I 7% annual allocation in the first two quarters!

[Spectator]

Spec,
I think as long as monthly EB1 and EB2ROW usage is low, USCIS can try to use EB2I 7% annual allocation in the first two quarters!

Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

[TexDBoy]

Hi all, approval email with PD Jan 23, 2007. Thanks for all the help. Hope this data point helps that they are covering all month cases in the first week itself.

[nishant2200]

Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

You gurus are now reaching the stage of enlightenment, tending towards Buddha.

[imechanix]

Hi imechanix,

All the best to you. I am sure that you will be current in this bulletin. BTW, can you pl tell me how much the doctor charged for the entire process?

300$ per person + Chest X ray charges (they took my insurance card)

[MorningSun]

Hello everyone, my application was approved on the first day of July. My priority date is 1/28/07. Best wishes to everyone waiting.

[veni001]

Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

Spec,
I am with you.

Looks like trackitt updates picked up steam!

[PD1006]

Received approval notice alert via e-mail today
Approval date seems to be July 5 - note says they mailed us a notice of approval
EB2I - PD 17 Oct 2006
Filed at TSC

Received the cards as well

[veni001]

Received the cards as well

PD1006,
Congratulations.

[amitk81]

Got green cards in the mail this evening.

Contacted the senator on 28th June, she confirmed that the card was approved on 1st July.

I strongly suggest that people who are current contact the senator this really help.

Amit

[nuvikas]

I was greened on 7/7. I called customer service and talked to a second level rep who confirmed that both my and my wife's cards were approved. EB2-I, Dec 2006 PD. Filed in Aug 2007. This is the best immigration related blog out there. Thanks for all you contribution.

[pch053]

Prediction
August Bulletin - May 8, 2007

What is the general consensus now on the Aug bulletin? Does the majority expect that it will be around May'07 - June'07 time frame? I think another 8K spillover will push the dates to end of June'07 and additional 3K will cover remaining pending applications up to Aug'07. As we have seen in the past, our estimates can go wrong and there can be surprises but still prediction is always a fun game. We will come to know next week for sure!

[imdeng]

Folks - I think we should explore archiving all the discussion and starting a new thread. We anyway have the summary on the first page - so no information will be lost - and it will become easier to navigate for the newbies.

[gchopeful123]

Take a look at this. This dude was pretty close in his predictions - cud be an alias for some of the experts here, who knows

http://www.immigration-information.c...ditions-12708/

[nuvikas]

Thanks for your wishes. Enclosed is the summary of my case. EB2-I PD Dec 14, 2006 filed in TSC in Aug 2007. Case was transferred to NBS and was called for interview in Sept 2009. Immigration officer asked few questions, verified few documents and told me that she would have approved my case if my priority date was current. None the less she requested a visa number. Case stayed in NBS for over a year and then it was transferred back to TSC in Mar 2011. I finally received the email on 7/7/2011 about the approvals. I was a regular reader of this forum. Q, Teddy, V and others were very knowledgeable and diligently answered all the question. This forum was spot on with its predictions. Hats off to you all. Thank you Q for starting this forum.

[neospeed]

Thanks for your wishes. Enclosed is the summary of my case. EB2-I PD Dec 14, 2006 filed in TSC in Aug 2007. Case was transferred to NBS and was called for interview in Sept 2009. Immigration officer asked few questions, verified few documents and told me that she would have approved my case if my priority date was current. None the less she requested a visa number. Case stayed in NBS for over a year and then it was transferred back to TSC in Mar 2011. I finally received the email on 7/7/2011 about the approvals. I was a regular reader of this forum. Q, Teddy, V and others were very knowledgeable and diligently answered all the question. This forum was spot on with its predictions. Hats off to you all. Thank you Q for starting this forum.

Thanks for the info, mine also similar case. Did you rise any SR once current?.

[gccool]

Thank you nuvikas for the info.