EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[sandeep11]

Thanks Nishant/Spector for pointing me to the right links.

sandeep,,

I'm not entirely sure what your question means.

The limit for EB was 150,657 visas in FY2010.
DOS used 150,262 visas in EB in FY2010.

So, DOS failed to use 395 or 0.26% of the available visas.

EB3 fell short of the 43,088 allocation by 657 visas or 1.52%

The only group who failed to receive their proper allocation was EB3-ROW, as all other groups in EB3 exceeded the 7% limit.

You can also find the figures for last year here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...CREDIT-to-VENI where they are split up into the various Countries / Groups.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

This month we donated to IDRF (USD 111) and St. Jude (USD 50). For prior months pls see
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=3577#post3577

Thanks to all visitors to this site whose visits make the ad revenue and hence the donations possible.

[neospeed]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Any breaking news coming this month?

[pch053]

Hey Guys,

I had a question. Have you heard of any denials for people who filed in July 2007 but who were not current after that? I am kind of new to this and haven't seen any. Assuming they are preadjudicated there must have been 10-15% denials right?

That was my previous question a few pages back. Does everybody who is preadjudicated mean they are approved? If USCIS cannot approve someone without the PD being current can they deny? I am just trying to figure out if

Demand data published = visas that will be used for people who filed in July 07.

Why do you think that there will be 10 - 15% denials? One scenario is that I485 will be denied if the underlying I140 get denied but I am not sure how much denials will happen for approved I140s. Another probable reason for denial that I can think of is USCIS issues a RFE on employment letter and the candidate is unable to provide the same. I don't think everybody who are pre-adjudicated will be approved right away; I have seen in trackitt that pre-adjudicated cases have received RFEs on employment letters, pay stubs, etc. I think USCIS can still deny one's application irrespective of whether the PD is current or not but I don't know how proactively this has been done.

[veni001]

Country of Chargeability - India
Category - EB2
Status - Pending
PD Range Oct 2006 to Feb 2007 to correlate to 15th Oct 2006 to 08 - Mar 2007
The number of cases obtained is 373.
Now this is the 4th business day of the month we do know that mostly the approvals are loaded early in the month but lets give the benefit of doubt and consider it as only 2 business days and assuming 20% people don't update their profiles since its early days. This gives 2/20*80/100*373 = 29.84 ~ 30. I distinctly remember last year in July only 7K folks were current but by the end of the first day itself page 1 on Trackitt which is 50 cases was almost full. One interesting thing is besides EB2-I no other category is also posting approvals. Even in the last 2 months when far fewer people have been current we have seen more approvals in the earlier days. Now when I compare last years counts on Trackitt those current in Jul 2010 were from Feb 2005 to Sep 2005 this gives 734 cases this would mean that there has been a pretty steep fall in those who posted their cases. I also noted that some people just add their cases when they are approved. So I believe that we should reduce the expected approvals on Trackitt to 15 only (50%). Each posted approval will carry more value this year than last year because more people are current and lesser representation.

Teddy,
Agree, that is why we need to be little cautious with trackitt updates. I would wait couple more days (my be August VB is out by then, and no need to look !) to translate approvals into numbers.

[pg_at_q]

Based on past trends, usually the bulletin dates for August and September have advanced much much rapidly then the June/July months bulletin in a fiscal year

Check out the last 2 pages

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

for FY-2008, 2009, and 2010 to see the rapid advance in Aug/Sept bulletins. My optimistic side is thumping loudly that there's no reason DoS will not follow the same trend this FY

[veni001]

Based on past trends, usually the bulletin dates for August and September have advanced much much rapidly then the June/July months bulletin in a fiscal year

Check out the last 2 pages

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

for FY-2008, 2009, and 2010 to see the rapid advance in Aug/Sept bulletins. My optimistic side is thumping loudly that there's no reason DoS will not follow the same trend this FY

pg_at_q,
When referring to previous years PD progression to predict this year movement, we need consider few other things .....

1. FY2011 is the first year (in recent past) we saw Spillover VISAs being applied to EB2 before Q4.
2. Spillover available for prior years is different from what we are predicting for FY2011.
3. Demand (i485) for prior years cutoff dates is different from this year. (example PD2005 got minimal AOS application)

[nishant2200]

Trying to put in some positive thinking on. I know I can fall flat on my face tomorrow, but putting out two thoughts.

USCIS knows the upcoming bulletin dates or knows that they are going to be advanced significantly, and that their actions in the first few days which in turn may impact the DOS demand data will have no bearing on the bulletin, and hence there is no pressure to crank the visas to reduce demand. Just like last time, no demand data will be even published.

Second, the 485s from this last few months of the fiasco period, would technically be the last ones to be pre-adjudicated, and seems that they may not all been "perfectly" pre-adjudicated, or levels of adjudication became stricter by the time they got to it, and they are sitting on them, and now, issuing RFEs for medicals, birth certificates, or EVLs, FP notices, etc. Also I think there was a lot of 485s in the last bulletin itself to do, and they maybe even a bit backlogged. Pre-adjudication may not always mean just putting a visa number, I am sure, it goes through a second "quick" review and checklist again. And now since USCIS-DOS communication for both of these above, that's why we see the NVC notices, as a last ditch effort to maximize visa usage for EB2I/C before they can give up and go to EB3.

Now if they are doing NVC for the reason above, then they need to advance this upcoming bulletin itself, so that NVC can grab those visa numbers in advance, schedule the interviews in September first week, and do it's quota, and return whatever was not used. Then in remaining part of September, they can spillover unused to EB3 if we get there.

Something is surely cooking, we can only try to guess. Sometimes, biased due to our own PDs, but trying to put some positive thoughts so that can live one more day until tomorrow.

[zenmaster]

Trying to put in some positive thinking on. I know I can fall flat on my face tomorrow, but putting out two thoughts.

USCIS knows the upcoming bulletin dates or knows that they are going to be advanced significantly, and that their actions in the first few days which in turn may impact the DOS demand data will have no bearing on the bulletin, and hence there is no pressure to crank the visas to reduce demand. Just like last time, no demand data will be even published.

Second, the 485s from this last few months of the fiasco period, would technically be the last ones to be pre-adjudicated, and seems that they may not all been "perfectly" pre-adjudicated, or levels of adjudication became stricter by the time they got to it, and they are sitting on them, and now, issuing RFEs for medicals, birth certificates, or EVLs, FP notices, etc. Also I think there was a lot of 485s in the last bulletin itself to do, and they maybe even a bit backlogged. Pre-adjudication may not always mean just putting a visa number, I am sure, it goes through a second "quick" review and checklist again. And now since USCIS-DOS communication for both of these above, that's why we see the NVC notices, as a last ditch effort to maximize visa usage for EB2I/C before they can give up and go to EB3.

Now if they are doing NVC for the reason above, then they need to advance this upcoming bulletin itself, so that NVC can grab those visa numbers in advance, schedule the interviews in September first week, and do it's quota, and return whatever was not used. Then in remaining part of September, they can spillover unused to EB3 if we get there.

Something is surely cooking, we can only try to guess. Sometimes, biased due to our own PDs, but trying to put some positive thoughts so that can live one more day until tomorrow.

+1 ...........

[ssvp22]

...then they need to advance this upcoming bulletin itself, so that NVC can grab those visa numbers in advance, schedule the interviews in September first week, and do it's quota, and return whatever was not used. Then in remaining part of September, they can spillover unused to EB3 if we get there.

One can only wish INS was that efficient. Anyhow, D day is near now. We will know by today night or tomorrow. Fortunately Test match with West Indies can help kill time.

[Monica12]

Spec, what does IBIS check and EVL mean? Thanks!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Agree, that is why we need to be little cautious with trackitt updates. I would wait couple more days (my be August VB is out by then, and no need to look !) to translate approvals into numbers.

Veni, I completely agree with you in principal, since the density on Trackitt is less right now however more people are current from the corresponding period so each number is worth more. What is worrying is that there are very few approvals on all forums. There have been reports to suggest that people have been getting their approval information from attorneys or by calling the service centers and some are getting the card in the mail. You are right the Aug bulletin will come sooner and answer all questions. USCIS definitely has the full month to close all cases let’s wait and watch. All our calculations also indicate that there are numbers left and the way to go is forward.

Trying to put in some positive thinking on. I know I can fall flat on my face tomorrow, but putting out two thoughts.

USCIS knows the upcoming bulletin dates or knows that they are going to be advanced significantly, and that their actions in the first few days which in turn may impact the DOS demand data will have no bearing on the bulletin, and hence there is no pressure to crank the visas to reduce demand. Just like last time, no demand data will be even published.

Second, the 485s from this last few months of the fiasco period, would technically be the last ones to be pre-adjudicated, and seems that they may not all been "perfectly" pre-adjudicated, or levels of adjudication became stricter by the time they got to it, and they are sitting on them, and now, issuing RFEs for medicals, birth certificates, or EVLs, FP notices, etc. Also I think there was a lot of 485s in the last bulletin itself to do, and they maybe even a bit backlogged. Pre-adjudication may not always mean just putting a visa number, I am sure, it goes through a second "quick" review and checklist again. And now since USCIS-DOS communication for both of these above, that's why we see the NVC notices, as a last ditch effort to maximize visa usage for EB2I/C before they can give up and go to EB3.

Now if they are doing NVC for the reason above, then they need to advance this upcoming bulletin itself, so that NVC can grab those visa numbers in advance, schedule the interviews in September first week, and do it's quota, and return whatever was not used. Then in remaining part of September, they can spillover unused to EB3 if we get there.

Something is surely cooking, we can only try to guess. Sometimes, biased due to our own PDs, but trying to put some positive thoughts so that can live one more day until tomorrow.

Nishant, nice perspective. I agree with you that approving the preadjudicated cases is probably not a push of a button they are probably doing a high level review that explains why people are getting RFE's and FP requests. The NVC fee requests are a shining positive in the whole thing that is what gives real hope that there will be fresh intake for the next year. Other than that as you say I agree completely it’s really wait and watch and hope for the best. All our calculations also indicate that there are numbers left and the way to go is forward.

[Spectator]

Spec, what does IBIS check and EVL mean? Thanks!

IBIS = Interagency Border Inspection Services (the result must be not more than 90 days old to approve the I-485 application)

EVL = Employment Verification Letter

[Monica12]

IBIS = Interagency Border Inspection Services (the result must be not more than 90 days old to approve the I-485 application)

EVL = Employment Verification Letter

Spec, is Background and Name check already completed for the pre-adjudicated applicants? or is this part of the IBIS check? Wondering because these probably take a long time and therefore, delay the process for the people who are current.

[nayekal]

07/07/2011: Interesting USCIS Idea on the Horizon to Make a Rule to Allow EAD to H-4 Spouses of H-1B Professionals Working Under AC 21 Sections 104(c) or 106(a)
This is from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

The USCIS is considering to initiate a proposed rule next March 2012 to extend the availability of EAD to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrants who have begun the process of seeking lawful permanent resident (LPR) status through employment and have extended their authorized period of admission or "stay" in the U.S. under section 104(c) or 106(a) of AC 21 (Public Law 106-313). Apparently this concept is conceived to allow the eligible class of H-4 dependent spouses to work and thereby encourage professionals with high demand skills to remain in the country and help spur the innovation and growth of U.S. companies, and thus allow the United States to remain a world leader in high technology. Very stimulating idea! This may be perceived as an administrative fix of the broken employment-based immigration system. It will certainly help to stop ongoing reverse exodus of these talented foreign professionals, particularly from California, to their home countries. We will watch how far and how fast this concept will move ahead. Please stay tuned to this website for development of this news.

[Spectator]

Spec, is Background and Name check already completed for the pre-adjudicated applicants? or is this part of the IBIS check? Wondering because these probably take a long time and therefore, delay the process for the people who are current.

Not necessarily, as far as I am aware, although it would have been initiated (and completed for the vast majority of applicants).

To be approved, the FBI fingerprint and IBIS checks must have been completed satisfactorily.

If the FBI name check has been pending more than 150 days, the case shall be referred to USCIS HQ for a decision on I-485 approval. If HQ gives a positive guidance after having contacted the FBI, the I-485 can be approved, but is still subject to revocation if the FBI name check eventually returns negative results.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memo...ing-020909.pdf

In the past (from Feb. 4, 2008), all cases where the FBI name check had been pending for more than 180 days could be approved automatically, but that policy was rescinded effective Feb. 9, 2009 as a result of the above memo.

[Monica12]

Thanks for the wonderful explaination, Spec!
This wait for VB is excruciating. Hoping for the best

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.

[Monica12]

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.

Great news, Teddy. Thanks for keeping us posted....and USCIS.. keep them coming

[pch053]

On pre-adjudication: I think there are cases that hasn't been perfectly pre-adjudicated. I can talk of my own case as an example. I know I have incomplete medical reports that I couldn't complete while trying to meet Aug 17th, 2007 deadline. I had send an email to Nebraska Center asking for the status of my application. This is the reply I got from them:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good afternoon,

USCIS records indicate that your I-485 is pending and waiting to be assigned to an officer for further review, since the pre-adjudicating process has been completed.

It appears that your fingerprints are now good until January 7, 2012.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, they are saying that pre-adjudication is complete even though they don't have all the medical details. I think I will receive a RFE for medical documents when my PD gets current and is assigned to an officer for further review. On the other hand, I do feel that they have all remaining documents in place, like i) I forwarded all AC21 documents and received an acknowledgement from USCIS on the same, ii) my last fingerprint was done on Oct'10 and that being the reason it is valid until Jan'12, etc.

[pch053]

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.

So far, is this the 2nd approval for the month of July in all forums? I think there has been 1 approval in trackitt and 1 in IV.

[vizcard]

07/07/2011: Interesting USCIS Idea on the Horizon to Make a Rule to Allow EAD to H-4 Spouses of H-1B Professionals Working Under AC 21 Sections 104(c) or 106(a)
This is from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

The USCIS is considering to initiate a proposed rule next March 2012 to extend the availability of EAD to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrants who have begun the process of seeking lawful permanent resident (LPR) status through employment and have extended their authorized period of admission or "stay" in the U.S. under section 104(c) or 106(a) of AC 21 (Public Law 106-313). Apparently this concept is conceived to allow the eligible class of H-4 dependent spouses to work and thereby encourage professionals with high demand skills to remain in the country and help spur the innovation and growth of U.S. companies, and thus allow the United States to remain a world leader in high technology. Very stimulating idea! This may be perceived as an administrative fix of the broken employment-based immigration system. It will certainly help to stop ongoing reverse exodus of these talented foreign professionals, particularly from California, to their home countries. We will watch how far and how fast this concept will move ahead. Please stay tuned to this website for development of this news.

does this mean that a H4 cannot get an EAD today ? My wife is currently on H1 but she might run out of her 6 yrs before my PD (Aug 2008) becomes current. Her company is not filing for her GC. She is hoping to continue working on an EAD but if she cannot apply for one (through me), then that will be a problem for her. She will have to manage expectations with her employer.

PS: I fall in the AC21 category.

[soggadu]

guys... is this something we have already seen?? confued with so much data flying around...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

[bieber]

guys... is this something we have already seen?? confued with so much data flying around...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

yes, they had it in a different place in the site before (the link is available in facts & data section)

[soggadu]

yes, they had it in a different place in the site before (the link is available in facts & data section)

so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....