EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

Whilst it would be great news for EB2-India and China if this is true, I will reserve judgement until the VB is posted on the DOS site.

Mumbai have posted incorrect information before.

The definition of Current is that there are more visas available than demand for them. That patently cannot be the case. There is probably a backlog of around 100k in EB2-IC to date, judging by the current backlogs and 2008-2010 PERM data.

If DOS have made EB2 Current consciously, so that true Demand can be gauged, then why not also make EB3 Current? It does not make sense to only make EB2 Current.

As it stands, this is a disaster for everybody in EB3. The remote possibility that EB3 could receive Spillover if insufficient EB2 cases were available to process to approval at the end of a FY would disappear. The filings from EB2 becoming Current would ensure that nothing can Spillover to EB3 in the foreseeable future.

[qesehmk]

Spec

You are right.
1. Lets take this with guarded optimism that mumbai bulletin is actually true but wait till final one comes out.
2. Current doesn't mean everybody gets GC. It only means those eligible to file 485 can now actually do so.

Whilst it would be great news for EB2-India and China if this is true, I will reserve judgement until the VB is posted on the DOS site.

Mumbai have posted incorrect information before.

The definition of Current is that there are more visas available than demand for them. That patently cannot be the case. There is probably a backlog of around 100k in EB2-IC to date, judging by the current backlogs and 2008-2010 PERM data.

If DOS have made EB2 Current consciously, so that true Demand can be gauged, then why not also make EB3 Current? It does not make sense to only make EB2 Current.

As it stands, this is a disaster for everybody in EB3. The remote possibility that EB3 could receive Spillover if insufficient EB2 cases were available to process to approval at the end of a FY would disappear. The filings from EB2 becoming Current would ensure that nothing can Spillover to EB3 in the foreseeable future.

[Pundit Arjun]

The Feb bulletin is out : http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5228.html

Yup, another mistake from the Mumbai Consulate website.

[TexDBoy]

Ya ... why do they lift our spirits and then dampen them. Cannot they get it right.

[Spectator]

Spec

You are right.
1. Lets take this with guarded optimism that mumbai bulletin is actually true but wait till final one comes out.
2. Current doesn't mean everybody gets GC. It only means those eligible to file 485 can now actually do so.

1. Well, we know now that Mumbai have got it wrong again.

Once is an accident. After that it starts to feel as if someone there has a warped sense of humor.

2. That is not my definition. It is a precis of the one give by DOS in the OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document.

If there are sufficient numbers (of Visas) in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current". For example: If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and we only have demand for 1,000 applicants the category can be "Current”.

Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established.

The cut-off date is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa number. For example: If the monthly target is 3,000 and we have demand for 8,000 applicants, then we would need to establish a cut-off date so that only 3,000 numbers would be allocated. In this case, the cut-off would be the priority date of the 3,001st applicant.

So, the Cut Off Date shouldn't be made Current solely to allow filing of applications - there should be Visa numbers available for them.

The VO don't always operate EXACTLY according to those rules, but close enough.

[qesehmk]

Stuff happens. Somebody fat-fingered in Mumbai. Can't help.

Even if were turned true, this wouldnt actually have helped clear backlog though. It would have allowed those waiting to file 485 would've allowed them to.

Ya ... why do they lift our spirits and then dampen them. Cannot they get it right.

[arorasa]

So EB2 China moved by 8 days compared to last month. Does that tell us anything?

[qesehmk]

It confirms that there is no Qly spillover. The logic being - 1 month equals roughly 250 visas max for a country. So if in one month date is only moving 8 days then the country has demand about 1k per month. If you look at 485 inventory china has about 600-800 per month. If there were spillover we would see much faster movement for china or India. Given that India itself is still and china is not moving confirms lack of Qly spillover.

Which again means that Jun-Sep 11 is when the action will be.

So EB2 China moved by 8 days compared to last month. Does that tell us anything?

[parsvnath]

Inv Stats Released for Jan 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/statistics/Empl...005%202011.pdf

[kd2008]

http://www.uscis.gov/statistics/Empl...005%202011.pdf

[parsvnath]

Q,

Can you see if this inv report changes anything in your model and update the initial segment?

Thanks,

[qesehmk]

KD / Parsv

Thanks a ton. Really appreciate the initiative. Here are some quick comments and I will update our model by late tonight.

#1 Pls note the report specifically says that all inventory at field offices is included. This is a huge plus - since this means there is no dark demand anymore. Something that we have been concerned about. This is especially more important to EB3 where judging total demand was very difficult because we were not sure how many additional demand was at field offices that was not counted in 485 inventory.
#2 For EB2 the numbers almost look unbelievable. The total demand through Dec 07 seems to be 35K. If we assume that through Q1 10K were used. That still leaves 30K to be applied in future. Then if we were to assume that the fall-down-up from EB5/1 to EB2 will be sufficient to cover any new ROW-EB2 demand (which is a very fair assumption) then it is painting a very rosy picture of EB2 getting cleared through May 2007. We will know better when we put it through our model.

Meanwhile Spec Teddy and other gurus.... pls feel free to jump in.

http://www.uscis.gov/statistics/Empl...005%202011.pdf

[parsvnath]

Q,

I partially agree with you on 1. This is my reason. This change is mainly because of a interiem memo that came out couple of days ago..Since this memo is hardly effective for 12 days, i am not quite confident all the transfers to the TSC has happened yet. But eventually it will. It might take another inv report before we get good grasp on the dark demand. Let me know what you think
-----

Purpose
This Policy Memorandum (PM) provides USCIS offices with instructions for handling regressed
visa number Adjustment of Status cases (employment-based and family-based) interviewed at
USCIS field offices on or after January 1, 2011. This memorandum:
• Standardizes the handling of visa-regressed cases throughout USCIS field offices
nationwide;
• Eliminates the need for USCIS field offices to request allocation of a visa number for an
otherwise eligible applicant for whom a visa number is unavailable at the time of
interview;
• Centralizes the storage of each case type at designated locations;
• Facilitates the collection of performance data to enable generation of statistical reports
and to improve case tracking and inventory control of visa regressed cases; and
• Offers better visibility to the Department of State (DOS) Visa Office of USCIS inventory
levels so that they can better plan and manage the movement of priority dates displayed
within their monthly visa bulletin.
This PM also provides specific instructions regarding the handling of regressed visa number
cases for which USCIS field offices have already requested, but not yet received, allocated visa
numbers.

----------

[qesehmk]

Certainly. What you say sounds reasonable.

Q,

I partially agree with you on 2. This is my reason. This change is mainly because of a interiem memo that came out couple of days..Since this memo is hardly effective for 12 days, i am not quite confident all the transfers to the TSC has happened yet. But eventually it will. It might take another inv report before we get good grasp on the dark demand. Let me know what you think
-----

[srinivasj]

Hello Qesehmk,
I accidently found this forum on google search..cant beleive you have created a new forum for yourself..Hatsoff..Glad I was able to find it..
Regards,
Srini

[qesehmk]

Srini,
There were too many restrictions on referring to data sources at the other site. So thought I might as well start something like this. It doesn't cost too much. Only 500 dollars so far. But the freedom to say what you want to say is worth it!! Plus I enjoy doing this because all of us are in the same boat. So we might as well help each other and get some clarity.
Welcome to forum!
Q

Hello Qesehmk,
I accidently found this forum on google search..cant beleive you have created a new forum for yourself..Hatsoff..Glad I was able to find it..
Regards,
Srini

[Spectator]

KD / Parsv

Thanks a ton. Really appreciate the initiative. Here are some quick comments and I will update our model by late tonight.

#1 Pls note the report specifically says that all inventory at field offices is included. This is a huge plus - since this means there is no dark demand anymore. Something that we have been concerned about. This is especially more important to EB3 where judging total demand was very difficult because we were not sure how many additional demand was at field offices that was not counted in 485 inventory.
#2 For EB2 the numbers almost look unbelievable. The total demand through Dec 07 seems to be 35K. If we assume that through Q1 10K were used. That still leaves 30K to be applied in future. Then if we were to assume that the fall-down-up from EB5/1 to EB2 will be sufficient to cover any new ROW-EB2 demand (which is a very fair assumption) then it is painting a very rosy picture of EB2 getting cleared through May 2007. We will know better when we put it through our model.

Meanwhile Spec Teddy and other gurus.... pls feel free to jump in.

Whoa there! I think you are jumping the gun without fully considering what the Field Office figures represent.

The Field Office figure, now included in the USCIS Inventory, only represent those cases where an interview has taken place and an approval would have taken place but for retrogression. That is, they have been pre-adjudicated.

They were still known to DOS previously, since under the old system, the Field Office requested a Visa for the PD.

It does mean that the USCIS Report should now contain all pre-adjudicated applications where they were handled by USCIS. Previously, the retrogressed Field Office cases remained there after interview until they could be approved and were therefore not included in the Inventory.

There are two things the USCIS Inventory DOESN'T contain pertaining to Field Offices.

a) If, when the interview took place at the Field Office, the PD was Current, the Field Office approved the case and requested a Visa from IVAMS.

That is still the case, so the level of "invisible" demand to DOS still remains, as the first they will know about it is when the Visa number is requested. It will not have been shown in the USCIS Inventory.

b) The USCIS Inventory only contains cases where the interview has taken place.

There are an unknown and unknowable number of cases at Field Offices where the interview has not yet taken place.

What we might speculate on, is that interviews are probably conducted for cases which are relatively close to becoming Current i.e they would try to conduct them in ascending PD order.

It is conceivable that there are a large number of cases with later PDs that have not yet been interviewed, so the real demand to Aug 2007 under USCIS can still not be gauged with any accuracy.

We can only say what the minimum demand is for China and India from USCIS.

This is probably only really a factor for EB3, as I don't believe EB2 has a very large number of Field Office cases.


We can't infer anything about EB2-ROW from the Inventory figures in terms of total approvals.

All we can say is that the pending figure of around 8k represents a snapshot of the work in progress. It is about the same as it was in October 2010 and much higher than in May 2010. I won't make any inferences from that fact.

I really can't agree with your analysis in point #2.

If the full 10 k (actually nearer 11k) from Q1 have indeed been used, then EB2-ROW would be on course to use its full allocation. They would consume a further 21k in the following 3 quarters.

In fact, it is not possible to know how many cases have been approved prior to the Report. Whatever the figure still to be approved, I believe it is higher than the numbers available from EB1 and EB5 spillover.

What we can say from the USCIS Inventory figures is that in the first three months of the FY, EB2-India backlog remained constant at c. 24.5k.

So, despite 3 months worth of Visa numbers (and probably above the 250 per month), EB2 Indian numbers have not moved, which is a net increase in the backlog.

That will actually make the forecast slightly worse, but not by a significant amount.

[veni001]

Not only that, refer to the Annual NVC pending list updated on 11/01/2010 at the following link, which shows Eb2 applications 6,738 pending at various field offices.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

[qesehmk]

Take it easy. I alreaddy conceded above. Field offices are no different than service centers when it comes to the so called dark demand. Even service centers will have some ROW applications that are not included in the inveotyr. But for our purpose we have to put the peg somewhere. Over time most of the dark demand from field offices will be visible which will be a great thing esp for EB3.

It is wrong to say that the dark demand was known under old system precisely because they were not known until a visa number was requested.

Regarding analysis I will cover it in a separate post.

Whoa there! I think you are jumping the gun without fully considering what the Field Office figures represent.

The Field Office figure, now included in the USCIS Inventory, only represent those cases where an interview has taken place and an approval would have taken place but for retrogression. That is, they have been pre-adjudicated.

They were still known to DOS previously, since under the old system, the Field Office requested a Visa for the PD.

It does mean that the USCIS Report should now contain all pre-adjudicated applications where they were handled by USCIS. Previously, the retrogressed Field Office cases remained there after interview until they could be approved and were therefore not included in the Inventory.

There are two things the USCIS Inventory DOESN'T contain pertaining to Field Offices.

a) If, when the interview took place at the Field Office, the PD was Current, the Field Office approved the case and requested a Visa from IVAMS.

That is still the case, so the level of "invisible" demand to DOS still remains, as the first they will know about it is when the Visa number is requested. It will not have been shown in the USCIS Inventory.

b) The USCIS Inventory only contains cases where the interview has taken place.

There are an unknown and unknowable number of cases at Field Offices where the interview has not yet taken place.

What we might speculate on, is that interviews are probably conducted for cases which are relatively close to becoming Current i.e they would try to conduct them in ascending PD order.

It is conceivable that there are a large number of cases with later PDs that have not yet been interviewed, so the real demand to Aug 2007 under USCIS can still not be gauged with any accuracy.

We can only say what the minimum demand is for China and India from USCIS.

This is probably only really a factor for EB3, as I don't believe EB2 has a very large number of Field Office cases.


We can't infer anything about EB2-ROW from the Inventory figures in terms of total approvals.

All we can say is that the pending figure of around 8k represents a snapshot of the work in progress. It is about the same as it was in October 2010 and much higher than in May 2010. I won't make any inferences from that fact.

I really can't agree with your analysis in point #2.

If the full 10 k (actually nearer 11k) from Q1 have indeed been used, then EB2-ROW would be on course to use its full allocation. They would consume a further 21k in the following 3 quarters.

In fact, it is not possible to know how many cases have been approved prior to the Report. Whatever the figure still to be approved, I believe it is higher than the numbers available from EB1 and EB5 spillover.

What we can say from the USCIS Inventory figures is that in the first three months of the FY, EB2-India backlog remained constant at c. 24.5k.

So, despite 3 months worth of Visa numbers (and probably above the 250 per month), EB2 Indian numbers have not moved, which is a net increase in the backlog.

That will actually make the forecast slightly worse, but not by a significant amount.

[qesehmk]

Guys ... I am sorry for being late. Too much swamped by work.

But here is the initial picture that is seen. (Updating the header will take some time because it involves a lot of calculations).

Overall EB2 reduced by 2K. ROW reduced by 1K. EB2-I increasd by 0.5K (which means 1K of conversions in Q1). Assuming 10K was applied (Q1 allocation) to EB2, this establishes max ROW new demand in Q1 at 7K. Which translates to 28K ROW full year demand - implying 6K SOFAD.
EB5/4 is on its way to give 5-6K SOFAD.
EB1 is now the dark horse. IF you look at the inventory report. 1K new demand is seen for EB1. That would mean 12K per year - which seems way artificially low. Even if we assume twice that demand @24K per year. EB1 should give 16K to EB2. So 6+5+16 = 27K SOFAD - should put us on path to March 07 +- 2 months (which pulls Q out of his GC misery - how convenient!!).

Overall as we have observed in the past - EB2-ROW and EB1-all is key to EB2 resolution. EB2ROW has lots of data that can be studied to understand its demand. The max we can expect from ROW-EB2 in 2011 seems to be 6K. However EB1 is difficult to predict since there is no labor data. The 2010 full year DHS report is also not yet published which would give us some insight into how much EB1 really gave in 2010. According to CO there was none in 2010.

If that is true and in 2011 EB1 repeats the same - tehn I must say EB2 overall can't progress beyond sep-06. (sorry .... don't shoot the messenger),

Fortunately, data points to different results. As I said, EB1 new demand per month seems to average 1K and you can double that to account for instant approvals that don't even appear in inventory.

So bottomline: The forecast doesn't change significantly. It will be worthwhile to spend much more time understanding EB1 which seems to hold a bigger key to EB2 resolution.

[Spectator]

Take it easy. I alreaddy conceded above. Field offices are no different than service centers when it comes to the so called dark demand. Even service centers will have some ROW applications that are not included in the inveotyr. But for our purpose we have to put the peg somewhere. Over time most of the dark demand from field offices will be visible which will be a great thing esp for EB3.

It is wrong to say that the dark demand was known under old system precisely because they were not known until a visa number was requested.

Regarding analysis I will cover it in a separate post.

It was not intended that way. It was why a put a smiley there. I guess inner thoughts don't always translate onto the written page. Apologies if you took any offence.

I wasn't saying that dark demand was known under the old system - in fact quite the opposite. What I was trying to say (poorly perhaps) was that the new system doesn't uncover it either.

Under the old system, a visa request for retrogressed cases was made to DOS by the Field Office when the case was pre-adjudicated, so DOS were aware of the numbers. Those cases then remained at the Field Office until they could be approved. Thus, they were not part of the USCIS Inventory.

Under the new system, these cases are returned to TSC upon pre-adjudication, the visa is now requested by TSC and they are also shown in the USCIS Inventory, which is a great leap forward, since they are now also visible to us. The numbers for EB3-ROW show how important that data is.

The dark demand to DOS was always cases that were Current when approved at the Field Office.

From reading the memo, the way these are dealt with has not changed. The first DOS will know about them is when they are approved and a visa is requested by the Field Office.

They will remain as dark as they were.

Possibly we were talking at cross purposes, since there is dark demand unknown to the USCIS Inventory and dark demand that is unknown to DOS. Much of the first category has now been illuminated.

Good luck with the analysis.

[qesehmk]

Don't worry about apologies. None are required.

I guess what has changed under the new system that USCIS is emphasizing that pre-adjudication takes place even at DOs.

It was not intended that way. It was why a put a smiley there. I guess inner thoughts don't always translate onto the written page. Apologies if you took any offence.

I wasn't saying that dark demand was known under the old system - in fact quite the opposite. What I was trying to say (poorly perhaps) was that the new system doesn't uncover it either.

Under the old system, a visa request for retrogressed cases was made to DOS by the Field Office when the case was pre-adjudicated, so DOS were aware of the numbers. Those cases then remained at the Field Office until they could be approved. Thus, they were not part of the USCIS Inventory.

Under the new system, these cases are returned to TSC upon pre-adjudication, the visa is now requested by TSC and they are also shown in the USCIS Inventory, which is a great leap forward, since they are now also visible to us. The numbers for EB3-ROW show how important that data is.

The dark demand to DOS was always cases that were Current when approved at the Field Office.

From reading the memo, the way these are dealt with has not changed. The first DOS will know about them is when they are approved and a visa is requested by the Field Office.

They will remain as dark as they were.

Possibly we were talking at cross purposes, since there is dark demand unknown to the USCIS Inventory and dark demand that is unknown to DOS. Much of the first category has now been illuminated.

Good luck with the analysis.

[bieber]

Q

earlier in this thread, you mentioned last year EB2ROW/EB1 quota was used to clear backlogs and this year you are expecting more SOFAD if not atleast same. is this changed?

my PD is 2008Aug1, EB2I, just wanted to know in ur opinion if i will get a chance to file for 485 in july-sep 2012 (2011 is even better )

[qesehmk]

veni ... welcome to forum and thanks. NVC demand is already factored in our model.

Not only that, refer to the Annual NVC pending list updated on 11/01/2010 at the following link, which shows Eb2 applications 6,738 pending at various field offices.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Spec ... you have a wonderful insight and analytical mind. Once again ... I don't think I took any offense and so no apologies are required. Appreciate your views.

It was not intended that way. It was why a put a smiley there. I guess inner thoughts don't always translate onto the written page. Apologies if you took any offence.

bieber, earlier I was bullish because I thought we will see half the ROW-EB2 demand in 2011 as in 2010 - primarily because in 2010 there was a PERM approval surge. But going into 2011 ROW EB2 continues to have strong demand. Coupled this with the fact that this year EB has 10K less to do with, isn't a very comforting thought. However I still think that EB2 will see significant SOFAD. At least 12K. At max 36K. So 24K seems a very tempting mathematical number!! Right? Just kidding ... but if 24K or 28K materializes then thats good enough to carry through January-Mar 07. Whether it will materialize in my opinion will largely depend on EB1 rather than ROW-EB2 because I am quite convinced that ROW-EB2 is not going to yield a lot.

Q
earlier in this thread, you mentioned last year EB2ROW/EB1 quota was used to clear backlogs and this year you are expecting more SOFAD if not atleast same. is this changed?
my PD is 2008Aug1, EB2I, just wanted to know in ur opinion if i will get a chance to file for 485 in july-sep 2012 (2011 is even better )

[Spectator]

EB1 is now the dark horse. IF you look at the inventory report. 1K new demand is seen for EB1. That would mean 12K per year - which seems way artificially low. Even if we assume twice that demand @24K per year. EB1 should give 16K to EB2. So 6+5+16 = 27K SOFAD - should put us on path to March 07 +- 2 months (which pulls Q out of his GC misery - how convenient!!).

Overall as we have observed in the past - EB2-ROW and EB1-all is key to EB2 resolution. EB2ROW has lots of data that can be studied to understand its demand. The max we can expect from ROW-EB2 in 2011 seems to be 6K. However EB1 is difficult to predict since there is no labor data. The 2010 full year DHS report is also not yet published which would give us some insight into how much EB1 really gave in 2010. According to CO there was none in 2010.

If that is true and in 2011 EB1 repeats the same - tehn I must say EB2 overall can't progress beyond sep-06. (sorry .... don't shoot the messenger).

So bottomline: The forecast doesn't change significantly. It will be worthwhile to spend much more time understanding EB1 which seems to hold a bigger key to EB2 resolution.

However I still think that EB2 will see significant SOFAD. At least 12K. At max 36K. So 24K seems a very tempting mathematical number!! Right? Just kidding ... but if 24K or 28K materializes then thats good enough to carry through January-Mar 07. Whether it will materialize in my opinion will largely depend on EB1 rather than ROW-EB2 because I am quite convinced that ROW-EB2 is not going to yield a lot.

Q,

Thanks for crunching the numbers and giving us your insight.

I pretty much agree with everything you've said, particularly that EB1 holds the key.

Forgive me if I talk aloud and generally vent my frustration about EB1. Who knows, some of it might even be useful!

As you pointed out, there is a only a single source of information about EB1 progress - and that is Trackitt.

I have to admit that, for EB1, I am becoming quite distrustful of these figures. Let me explain at least part of the reason.

a) The % that Trackitt primary case approvals in EB1 represent of actual approvals is extremely low.

In FY2008, it represented just 0.67%, in FY2009 just 1.24% and probably around 0.86% in FY2010.

As you can see, the % has varied widely. In fact, using the FY2009 figure for FY2010 Trackitt approvals predicted a figure of 28.4k. We can deduce that it was far higher than that.

b) The representation of EB1 cases on Trackitt is very skewed.

Whilst in reality EB1-ROW (Countries other than C,I, M & P) accounts for 65% of approvals, the representation on Trackit is just 30%.

Conversely for EB1-India, where actual approvals account for 15% of the total, the Trackitt representation is over 50%.

c) Trackitt does not properly represent EB1C.

EB1C approvals represent 60% of all EB1 approvals in reality, so they are a major contributor to the overall numbers.

In FY2008, the Trackitt representation was 37.5%, in FY2009 it leapt to 49.9%, but in FY2010 it dropped to 33.3%.

It is possible that approvals as a % really did drop in FY2010 and we will know when the DHS Yearbook is published. Alternatively, EB1C just aren't adding their cases any more due to the negative comments that group gets. It is impossible to tell, but it leaves the possibility that Trackitt numbers under-represent the true numbers.

I realize that is the nature of the Trackitt beast, but nonetheless, with such small % representation, it can lead to widely varying figures per year and the major consumers are very under represented.

I was in this quandary last year. Whilst Trackitt was saying that EB1 approvals were low, historical trends and gut instinct told me that EB1 was likely to consume most of its allocation. I estimated 38k and it was probably more than that.

The same factors are in play for me now looking at FY2011. I can't really see EB1 getting less than 35k, probably 38k and possibly 40k. As I said, it is gut instinct as much as anything else. End of rant.

In my own model, I have a figure of 22-23k SOFAD but because of EB1 it has a wide error margin. I don't think it is so out of line with your own prediction.

You said earlier that:

Just kidding ... but if 24K or 28K materializes then thats good enough to carry through January-Mar 07.

I am struggling to reach those dates with those figures.

Taking into account changes due to the January 2011 USCIS Inventory, the revised number of USCIS cases for China and India at the beginning of the FY would be 36.5k.

To reach the end of December needs 21k from the USCIS Inventory. Once you add on Porting at 4k and other allowances for new applications, CP cases etc, it needs 28k SOFAD to clear December 2006, give or take a k.

Similarly, I calculate that to clear March 2007 would need 32.5k SOFAD.

24k SOFAD would allow movement towards the end of November 2006 and 28k SOFAD allows the end of December 2006 as I said above.

I seem to remember both Teddy and I came to the same conclusion about movement, but you were more optimistic. I don't know if this is the same issue. I certainly don't want to pick a fight over it.

Happy number crunching and thanks again for your efforts. They are much appreciated.