EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[kd2008]

kd,

Here's my thoughts. The comments are really thinking on the fly. I'd be interested in your view. With a few exceptions of those who have gone through the process, our (well, certainly my) knowledge can be described as hazy at best on the subject of CP.


If there is a tussle, I think it will be within AOS cases processed by USCIS.

Since the EB3-I cases are already pre-adjudicated with USCIS and EB3-ROW/C/M cases are only being adjudicated for the first time by USCIS, the winner seems obvious. The lowest hanging fruit which will enable the ISO to boost their productivity numbers are the EB3-I cases.

For CP cases, the visas are allocated in advance, when the VB is set. Barring no shows and denials which would result in the visa being returned later, those numbers would already be known to CO from the Consular reports he received in the first week of August before he set the September VB. Those CP cases will get their Immigrant Visa this FY if they are approvable at the interview.

The potential problem with CP cases may have been the ability of NVC/Consulates (and the applicants themselves) to make the cases documentarily qualified in time and to schedule sufficient interview slots given the short notice.

I did not see any posts in the forums about people (from either ROW or India) getting contacted by NVC to pay even the processing fee and submit initial information (call it packet 3), let alone be in a position to complete the final steps with NVC (call it packet 4). Even allowing for the fact that CP has fairly low representation on the forums, the virtually total lack of posts may be a clue that CO was unable to give NVC sufficient warning.

If numbers were large, ROW would probably have a slight advantage for CP, because India has a set number of Consulates that can issue Immigrant Visas (and therefore interview slots), whereas ROW is many individual Countries.

One thought that comes to mind is - if CO felt he could use up the remaining EB3 visas from CP alone (or even mostly from ROW CP), he would have had no need to move the EB3-I COD so far. That seems to imply that he didn't have sufficient ROW/C/M CP documentarily qualified cases to use the remaining visas when he set the September VB COD.

When I talked in January about how CO should handle the looming EB3-ROW situation, I moved the COD quite aggressively at the beginning (then retrogressed) precisely to give CP cases sufficient time to be processed. Then, later PD CP cases could, if necessary, ensure full use the ROW/C/M allocation by moving the COD forward again, if USCIS could not process sufficient numbers before the end of the FY. That approach also ensured that late PD CP cases did not preferentially consume the visa numbers purely because DOS could process them faster than USCIS could process AOS cases.

Spec, Thank you for the detailed reply. I agree with your assessment. The only place where CP processing might be complete by end of September are really small countries with substantial US presence eg. S Korea as the cases might be few in number and people might be prompt in replying etc. But I completely agree that come Sept 3, USCIS is in a fantastic position to churn out approvals for EB3-I and therefore get a massive headstart.

[amulchandra]

I did some weird calculation.

I am trying to calculate the number portings done from eb3 to eb2 and still waiting for GC.
I took the unique number of viewers watching the thread 'EB3 to EB2 porters ONLY-Current in August bulletin-Join here!' on trackitt.
At one point in time there are 205 users watching the thread.

So 205 primary * 2.5 dependents translates to total 513 waiting and current I 485 applications.

Just for assumption (don't even ask me where I got this) if 10% of the porter applicants are active on trackitt then the total porters waiting will be 5130.

If all the 5130 porters interfile requests are recorded by Uscis into their system then the reduction in demand for eb3 I by the end of next month should be ~7000 SO covering till sept 2003+ 5130 = 12130.

Please don't laugh at my calcualtions but let me know what the gurus here think

[kalatta]

I feel bad as EB3I prediction and calculations thread in every immigrtaion forum is treated as a foster child compared to EB2 and other category prediction threads. In an effort to revive this thread I want to ask the gurus of this forum to predict when a PD of Dec 1 2003 EB3-I will become current.

My prediction is last quarter of FY 2014( probably SEP 2014). The prediction is based on the assumption that USCIS will clear all the cases that will be current in SEP 2013 and approves the monthly quota of 250 every month from there in FY2014, with NO spillover and no new I-485 applications with PD before DEC 1 2013 during this period.

Experts please chime in your thoughts

[Spectator]

I feel bad as EB3I prediction and calculations thread in every immigrtaion forum is treated as a foster child compared to EB2 and other category prediction threads. In an effort to revive this thread I want to ask the gurus of this forum to predict when a PD of Dec 1 2003 EB3-I will become current.

My prediction is last quarter of FY 2014( probably SEP 2014). The prediction is based on the assumption that USCIS will clear all the cases that will be current in SEP 2013 and approves the monthly quota of 250 every month from there in FY2014, with NO spillover and no new I-485 applications with PD before DEC 1 2013 during this period.

Experts please chime in your thoughts

kalatta,

Unfortunately, EB3-I has been depressingly easy to forecast, due to lack of SO and fairly well known numbers.

The only part not well understood is how many cases disappear from Demand due to porting.

Now the COD has reached 2003, I think those numbers are greater and there is some hope of faster movement.

EB3-WW has received fairly decent approval numbers in August and many of the new EB3-WW cases are becoming ready to adjudicate.

For that reason, I not entirely convinced there will be sufficient spare visas to approve all EB3-I cases up to the 22SEP03.

From the last USCIS Inventory, nearly 7k EB3-I cases remain prior to 22SEP03. Some will disappear due to Porting, but I don't think there are many more of this year 2003 PD approvals to be removed.

At the moment, I'm not sure how much Fall Across from EB3-WW will be available to EB3-I.

[qesehmk]

I will echo Spec's thoughts and say that the movement so far for EB3I was extremely surprising. Following things could be the reasons or a combination thereof behind the movement. We don't know what is what today.

1. Portings from EB3->EB2 I
2. Movement of EB3I folks back home and having given up on GC
3. Irrational movement on part of CO.

My bet is on a combination of #1 and #2. Which would then won't require retrogression and you can expect to be current between 6-9 months.

However if #3 is present then retrogression is certainty and your PD won't be current for 9 months at a minimum.

[amulchandra]

I am not an expert but I will express my opinion anyways. I think USCIS will use this opportunity to clear that backlog till Sept 2003 for Eb3 I as best as possible.
There are instances before where Eb2 I was allotted EB 2 Row visas and EB2 ROW became unavailable because of that. On top of that EB3 I pending applications are pre-adjudicated and are easy to approve than fresh EB3 ROW cases. My gut feeling is that porting numbers are also under estimated. The economy picked up and EB3 I people from IT sector are porting in huge numbers. I am expecting a better movement for EB3 India in future.

[kalatta]

kalatta,

Unfortunately, EB3-I has been depressingly easy to forecast, due to lack of SO and fairly well known numbers.

The only part not well understood is how many cases disappear from Demand due to porting.

Now the COD has reached 2003, I think those numbers are greater and there is some hope of faster movement.

EB3-WW has received fairly decent approval numbers in August and many of the new EB3-WW cases are becoming ready to adjudicate.

For that reason, I not entirely convinced there will be sufficient spare visas to approve all EB3-I cases up to the 22SEP03.

From the last USCIS Inventory, nearly 7k EB3-I cases remain prior to 22SEP03. Some will disappear due to Porting, but I don't think there are many more of this year 2003 PD approvals to be removed.

At the moment, I'm not sure how much Fall Across from EB3-WW will be available to EB3-I.

I will echo Spec's thoughts and say that the movement so far for EB3I was extremely surprising. Following things could be the reasons or a combination thereof behind the movement. We don't know what is what today.

1. Portings from EB3->EB2 I
2. Movement of EB3I folks back home and having given up on GC
3. Irrational movement on part of CO.

My bet is on a combination of #1 and #2. Which would then won't require retrogression and you can expect to be current between 6-9 months.

However if #3 is present then retrogression is certainty and your PD won't be current for 9 months at a minimum.

Spec and Q,

excellent points. I seriously hope Point #3 is not the cause for movement. FY 2014 first 3 months visa bulletion and DD should paint clear picture on how the forward movement of EB3-I going to be. Also I hope USCIS is ready with enough pre-adjudicated cases for EB3-I to approve in SEP 2013 so that EB3-I can use the spill over and fall across visas from EB3-WW. Hope for the best

[kalatta]

I am not an expert but I will express my opinion anyways. I think USCIS will use this opportunity to clear that backlog till Sept 2003 for Eb3 I as best as possible.
There are instances before where Eb2 I was allotted EB 2 Row visas and EB2 ROW became unavailable because of that. On top of that EB3 I pending applications are pre-adjudicated and are easy to approve than fresh EB3 ROW cases. My gut feeling is that porting numbers are also under estimated. The economy picked up and EB3 I people from IT sector are porting in huge numbers. I am expecting a better movement for EB3 India in future.

Amul,

I do believe the porting numbers are under estimated. But looking around for EB3-EB2 porting data around forums, I do see lot of portings from people with PD in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, but I see very little for 2003( I could be wrong here as I just skimmed the trackitt data notes section for porting info). This make me think that ppl with PD in 2003 didn't port a lot or basically given up and abandoned it

[amulchandra]

Amul,

I do believe the porting numbers are under estimated. But looking around for EB3-EB2 porting data around forums, I do see lot of portings from people with PD in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, but I see very little for 2003( I could be wrong here as I just skimmed the trackitt data notes section for porting info). This make me think that ppl with PD in 2003 didn't port a lot or basically given up and abandoned it

Yes exactly. I see that people with PDs in 2003 did not port in droves. That's the reason I am 'HOPING' if we cross this 2003 hump we will see better movement for Eb3 I.

[Spectator]

Yes exactly. I see that people with PDs in 2003 did not port in droves. That's the reason I am 'HOPING' if we cross this 2003 hump we will see better movement for Eb3 I.

I think you have to qualify that statement.

People with 2003 PD have not ported since August began.

In Oct-July there were 64 Trackitt cases with a 2003 PD that ported and just 1 in August. That might represent 1k cases, but they will have already been removed from the Inventory and Demand Data, as well as pre Sept 2004 PD cases that have been approved through June/July.

I have no doubt that 2003 PD have ported in previous years as well, but now that EB3-I has reached 2003, the pressure to do so has eased.

In previous years, if memory serves me correctly, the overall EB3-I Demand for all years has reduced by at at least twice that which could be attributed to EB3-I approvals.

[amulchandra]

I think you have to qualify that statement.

People with 2003 PD have not ported since August began.

In Oct-July there were 64 Trackitt cases with a 2003 PD that ported and just 1 in August. That might represent 1k cases, but they will have already been removed from the Inventory and Demand Data, as well as pre Sept 2004 PD cases that have been approved through June/July.

I have no doubt that 2003 PD have ported in previous years as well, but now that EB3-I has reached 2003, the pressure to do so has eased.

In previous years, if memory serves me correctly, the overall EB3-I Demand for all years has reduced by at at least twice that which could be attributed to EB3-I approvals.

Thanks Spec. Yes you are correct. But the drop in numbers did not affect the PD movement till date as it was like a drop in the ocean. Since the economy is improving , if the trend continues I think that will reduce the numbers more drastically than before and will start impacting the PD movements.

[isantem]

That is correct - it is fiscal year 2014. What I mentioned is a realistic estimate not an optimistic one. You can actually get it much before. It all depends on what your country is. If I may what is your chargeability country?

YES Q you were right again, again, again, again!!!! I got my greencards a couple of days ago. Thank you so much to all the Gurus that helped me so so so much! With the information from Q, Specs, Teddy and all other gurus I was guru myself between my other immigrant friends.
I wish you all the best in the World! Thank you Q for creating and maintaining this great discussion platform!

[Kanmani]

YES Q you were right again, again, again, again!!!! I got my greencards a couple of days ago. Thank you so much to all the Gurus that helped me so so so much! With the information from Q, Specs, Teddy and all other gurus I was guru myself between my other immigrant friends.
I wish you all the best in the World! Thank you Q for creating and maintaining this great discussion platform!

Congratulations!

[qesehmk]

Enjoy the freedom from H1 isantem!! Wish you the very best.

YES Q you were right again, again, again, again!!!! I got my greencards a couple of days ago. Thank you so much to all the Gurus that helped me so so so much! With the information from Q, Specs, Teddy and all other gurus I was guru myself between my other immigrant friends.
I wish you all the best in the World! Thank you Q for creating and maintaining this great discussion platform!

[krishn]

Guru's,

I have pulled in perm row approval numbers from data from << http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations >>

The EB2 row approval numbers from << http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...l-reports.html >>

can we guesstimate how many eb3 row I-485 applications could be filed between 2008 - 2013 ??


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589

EB2 Row Approvals 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849


EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
china-Taiwan 2,346 1,481 1,269 1,548 1,022 1,636
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
row 42,588 28,612 23,158 28,613 20,756 34,849

will there be any spillovers from EB3 ROW to EB3I this FY2014 ?

The possible EB3I inventory for the next six months arrived (guess) from the past USCIS inventory reports:

EB3I jan-2011 jan-2013 Apr-2013 july-2013 oct-2013 jan-2014 possible

2003 Sept
2003 Oct 1210 985 942 899 877 865 865
2003 Nov 1161 917 873 850 823 813 813
2003 Dec 1185 1010 952 899 885 1304 885
2004 Jan 1000 850 813 772 753 924 753
2004 Feb 928 769 724 696 1,109 682 682
2004Mar 1301 1010 959 923 1437 873 873


6785 5541 5263 5039 5884 5461 4871


from the pending i-485 inventory for eb3I , if we remove some %cases as upgraded/ported/abandoned/canceled ;

can we arrive at a date EB3I will move in this FY with its quota of visas ?

[qesehmk]

krishn

My answer is most likely not this year. But next year possibly yes.

The reason is that ROWEB3 dates have been moved quite aggresively and now it is quite possible that EB3ROW demand is mature this year - unlike last year when most of those cases were fresh. So while we did see EB3I did receive some visas fall from their ROW counter parts, i think the possibility of this happening this year is quite less.

However next year - the scenario is going to change when EB3ROW may become current and might give some extra visas to EB3I.

will there be any spillovers from EB3 ROW to EB3I this FY2014 ?

The possible EB3I inventory for the next six months arrived (guess) from the past USCIS inventory reports:

EB3I jan-2011 jan-2013 Apr-2013 july-2013 oct-2013 jan-2014 possible

2003 Sept
2003 Oct 1210 985 942 899 877 865 865
2003 Nov 1161 917 873 850 823 813 813
2003 Dec 1185 1010 952 899 885 1304 885
2004 Jan 1000 850 813 772 753 924 753
2004 Feb 928 769 724 696 1,109 682 682
2004Mar 1301 1010 959 923 1437 873 873


6785 5541 5263 5039 5884 5461 4871


from the pending i-485 inventory for eb3I , if we remove some %cases as upgraded/ported/abandoned/canceled ;

can we arrive at a date EB3I will move in this FY with its quota of visas ?

[krishn]

Q,

would you be able to throw out some light , on what multiplication factor can i use on perm row approvals and eb2-row-approvals year wise and arrive at eb3row yearly inventory from 2008 to 2013 ?


next say, that

From 2008 to 2013
perm row approvals were 110k , which includes eb3 row and eb2 row.
during the same time, eb2 row approvals were 180K

EB2 row being current for last 3 or 4 years,

doesnt that tell us eb3row i-485's will be very low ? probably less than their yearly quota (30k is my guess)

and with eb3I 485 inventory thinning out , wont the dates for EB3I move into next six months so as to not to waste visa numbers ?

[Spectator]

will there be any spillovers from EB3 ROW to EB3I this FY2014 ?

can we arrive at a date EB3I will move in this FY with its quota of visas ?

I would agree with Q.

The latest news has strongly hinted that EB3-ROW/C/M (EB3-WW) will retrogress soon.

This means that this group can use all available visas available to them this FY and none will be available for Fall Across within EB3 to India.

EB3-I look likely to only have 3k available for the FY and they have already used a considerable number of those in October/November 2013.

I would see EB3-I progressing to late October/mid November 2003 by the end of the FY.

The ongoing demand for EB3-WW looks quite low by historical standards. There seems every chance that EB3-WW could become Current at some point during FY2015. When that happens, Fall Across to EB3-I will be available and EB3-I can look forward to much faster progress of the Cut Off Dates.

[qesehmk]

Krishn

Here is how i would look at the data (although to be honest I have pretty much stopped doing manual calculations!).

110K over 6 years => ~18K per year => 40K total demand per year for 485 (assuming 100% PERM to 485 conversion).

Of this we already know that EB2ROW generally consumes between 22K to 28K per year. So lets make this 25K. So EB3ROW is about 15K. Thus EB3ROW to EB2ROW ratio is approx 3:5

Makes sense?

Q,

would you be able to throw out some light , on what multiplication factor can i use on perm row approvals and eb2-row-approvals year wise and arrive at eb3row yearly inventory from 2008 to 2013 ?


next say, that

From 2008 to 2013
perm row approvals were 110k , which includes eb3 row and eb2 row.
during the same time, eb2 row approvals were 180K

EB2 row being current for last 3 or 4 years,

doesnt that tell us eb3row i-485's will be very low ? probably less than their yearly quota (30k is my guess)

and with eb3I 485 inventory thinning out , wont the dates for EB3I move into next six months so as to not to waste visa numbers ?

[qesehmk]

The ongoing demand for EB3-WW looks quite low by historical standards.

Spec thanks. Yes indeed EB3WW demand is quite low since 2008 because of two reasons ...
1. Recession lowered overall demand for WW.
2. Horizontal spillovers forced WW folks to move to EB2. Thus EB3WW demand has dramatically reduced.

Hindsight is quite 20-20 - ain't it?

[krishn]

Q, awesome , you are the best at the calculations

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589

Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row 11301.75 7142.625 5932.125 6471.75 7263 3220.875
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row 18836.25 11904.375 9886.875 10786.25 12105 5368.125


so total eb3 row pending from 2008 to 2013 would be 41K

[qesehmk]

so total eb3 row pending from 2008 to 2013 would be 41K

Don't forget to multiply by 2.2 to account for the dependents.

[krishn]

Krishn

Here is how i would look at the data (although to be honest I have pretty much stopped doing manual calculations!).

110K over 6 years => ~18K per year => 40K total demand per year for 485 (assuming 100% PERM to 485 conversion).

Of this we already know that EB2ROW generally consumes between 22K to 28K per year. So lets make this 25K. So EB3ROW is about 15K. Thus EB3ROW to EB2ROW ratio is approx 3:5

Makes sense?

so its 15k per year EB3 row inventory is what needs to be assumed from 2008 to 2013.

[krishn]

Don't forget to multiply by 2.2 to account for the dependents.

sure , then the picture is complete

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589 110219

Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849 178,576

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row 11301.75 7142.625 5932.125 6471.75 7263 3220.875 41332.125
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row 18836.25 11904.375 9886.875 10786.25 12105 5368.125 68886.875

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row * 2.2 dependents 24863.85 15713.775 13050.675 14237.85 15978.6 7085.925 90930.675
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row * 2.2 dependents 41439.75 26189.625 21751.125 23729.75 26631 11809.875 151551.125

[qesehmk]

Yes. This is good.

You can make it more accurate if apply the denial factors at 140 and 485 level. May be 5% at 140 level and 5% at 485 is more than sufficient.

But i generally like to not apply denial because then the prediction becomes conservative.

sure , then the picture is complete

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589 110219

Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849 178,576

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row 11301.75 7142.625 5932.125 6471.75 7263 3220.875 41332.125
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row 18836.25 11904.375 9886.875 10786.25 12105 5368.125 68886.875

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row * 2.2 dependents 24863.85 15713.775 13050.675 14237.85 15978.6 7085.925 90930.675
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row * 2.2 dependents 41439.75 26189.625 21751.125 23729.75 26631 11809.875 151551.125