All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

[pdmay2008]

I have been telling myself since this morning "Let's not hope too much". As several VB movements caused disappointment in the past. I wish good luck for every one waiting for tomorrow's VB.

[indiani]

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!

For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!

Congrats!

Did you get mass RFE?

Did you open congressional query?

[wolverine82]

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!


For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!

congrats longwait!!!

[Jagan01]

I see what you are saying.

The Demand Data is just a summary of the information in IVAMS. At a detail level, it can go down as far as individual cases.

When EB3-C tried to sue DOS, a sample report was released that showed EB3 by Retrogressed Country (or ROW) by Priority Date.

So CO already has the information for preadjudicated cases.

It could also be deduced that Jan-Mar 2008 would be lighter - a Cut Off Date of 15MAR08 was in effect for a month longer than other dates in 2008 in FY2012.

Spec,

Thanks for your response... It helps in getting a better understanding...

[longwait100]

Thanks everyone for the wishes. Didn't contact Uscis or congressman.
Both me and spouse had received the mass Rfe dated June 14th and attorney reponded for both jun 28th.

Still waiting on my wife's status to change from response review to card production. Has anyone been in such a situation?....if so pls advise on the future course of action.

[indiani]

Thanks everyone for the wishes. Didn't contact Uscis or congressman.
Both me and spouse had received the mass Rfe dated June 14th and attorney reponded for both jun 28th.

Still waiting on my wife's status to change from response review to card production. Has anyone been in such a situation?....if so pls advise on the future course of action.

Most of the time derivative file is assigned to the same IO, so most people get the response in either the same day or at the latest the next day.

Do nothing until tomorrow noon and later talk to L2 if you want to know ( nothing to lose except small amount of time).

You might have even gotten the text before you read my post !

[indiani]

Matt,

Are you planning to request congressional query / have already done it?

I can't think of anything that would be of help to expedite the process.

I am not sure about the value of the congressional query based on the approval trends with/ without query but want to see what your thoughts are.

[MATT2012]

Indiani,

Will wait until VB and will make a decision accordingly. I don't doubt the value of congressional enquiry.

I hope the VB is released tomorrow. if the dates are too conservative or too aggressive there are potential issues.

Cheers!!

Matt

[indiani]

Indiani,

Will wait until VB and will make a decision accordingly. I don't doubt the value of congressional enquiry.

I hope the VB is released tomorrow. if the dates are too conservative or too aggressive there are potential issues.

Cheers!!

Matt

My suspicion is CO tends to move to bit further than what he can accommodate , In other words even though the demand might be enough to approve until march 1st or so, he might end up moving it to June 1st or something like that.

In that case even though good news for anxiously waiting folks with PD before June 1st., there might be couple of thousands or even more with PD 2007 that might be left over.

I do not consider "too conservative" will have much of negative impact on people who are current now, "too aggressive" is what potentially can lead to skipping earlier PD's., like what happened last year.

Regarding congressional queries, if they really do make an impact I can request my congressman to more aggressively pursue the matter., but so far I did not find much of data to show that congressional inquiries made any impact this month so far.

[indiani]

Is it just me or anyone else thinks that irrespective of SO applied to EB2I and no matter where the dates are moved in next VB, there just aren't that many working days left (with the current pace of approvals ) that USCIS can process more than 10K before they close the shop for the year.

The pace of approvals is probably going to be the limiting factor.

[MATT2012]

Is it just me or anyone else thinks that irrespective of SO applied to EB2I and no matter where the dates are moved in next VB, there just aren't that many working days left (with the current pace of approvals ) that USCIS can process more than 10K before they close the shop for the year.

The pace of approvals is probably going to be the limiting factor.

I just posted this in trackitt,

The below is the annual split of approval updated in trackitt, TX is lagging far behind so far.
----------2004-------2005------2006-----2007-----Total
Nebraska-11--------18----------24------38--------101
Texas-----1----------5------------7------38--------51
Total------12--------23----------31------76--------152

if I give a 6% weightage to trackitt volume, it is a 2500 number. if there are 5K interfile approvals between Aug and Sep. The total approvals should be around 13K for the current movement until Jan 01,2008. 2500/13000= 19% approvals got completed in one week. I am sure there are still individuals who got approved in trackitt and yet to enter the information. if the approvals from Nebraska continues in the same speed and Texas picks up speed we may have roughly 40% or more completed by next week.

[justvisiting]

FYI, USCIS decided to transfer new fiance petitions from VSC to TSC:

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Maybe this helps explain TSC lagging behind NSC?

[indiani]

I just posted this in trackitt,

The below is the annual split of approval updated in trackitt, TX is lagging far behind so far.
----------2004-------2005------2006-----2007-----Total
Nebraska-11--------18----------24------38--------101
Texas-----1----------5------------7------38--------51
Total------12--------23----------31------76--------152

if I give a 6% weightage to trackitt volume, it is a 2500 number. if there are 5K interfile approvals between Aug and Sep. The total approvals should be around 13K for the current movement until Jan 01,2008. 2500/13000= 19% approvals got completed in one week. I am sure there are still individuals who got approved in trackitt and yet to enter the information. if the approvals from Nebraska continues in the same speed and Texas picks up speed we may have roughly 40% or more completed by next week.

I think the 152 has some dependents counted in it, so I am not quite sure if we can consider the total just 6%. But I think the numbers you have calculated might be pretty close to actual approvals and my guess is it might be slightly above 2K ( spec thinks its 2.2K in his earlier post ), even though there is no way of knowing it for sure.

(I am going to spend as much time with my congressmen's staff from tomorrow as I do on the forum and hopefully that can increase my chances )- not related to the topic, just thinking out loud

[MATT2012]

I think the 152 has some dependents counted in it, so I am not quite sure if we can consider the total just 6%. But I think the numbers you have calculated might be pretty close to actual approvals and my guess is it might be slightly above 2K ( spec thinks its 2.2K in his earlier post ), even though there is no way of knowing it for sure.

(I am going to spend as much time with my congressmen's staff from tomorrow as I do on the forum and hopefully that can increase my chances )- not related to the topic, just thinking out loud

There are 152 approved primary cases, it went up to 155 now. Specs number was few hours ago, as new cases got approved obviously his number would have increased also. Regarding 6% conversion, every year it changes, but I think that is best we could do other than using a range based on historic representation.

[indiani]

There are 152 approved primary cases, it went up to 155 now. Specs number was few hours ago, as new cases got approved obviously his number would have increased also. Regarding 6% conversion, every year it changes, but I think that is best we could do other than using a range based on historic representation.

Thanks. I agree with the number ( as best as we could get with the data at hand)

[Spectator]

There are 152 approved primary cases, it went up to 155 now. Specs number was few hours ago, as new cases got approved obviously his number would have increased also. Regarding 6% conversion, every year it changes, but I think that is best we could do other than using a range based on historic representation.

Matt,

I have 154 because sd37 is CC to UAE.

I am bang on your 2,500 mark.

Currently I have 51 TSC, 102 NSC and 1 CSC so we are counting the same.

I also agree with your estimate of c. 13k in your previous post. Originally, I might have said 12k, but early indications are that it is a bit higher than that as "upgrades are looking higher than I had allowed for.

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Current approval rate in August is about 9.2k/month (although that will increase as people update the tracker), compared to the 13k that have possibly become Current and are approvable.

Your previous post was a bit deja vu, because it said pretty much what I was thinking.

[venki080]

Friends
Is it only me that is not able to access trackiitt.com. I am only able to view cached pages from Google server.

[Spectator]

Friends
Is it only me that is not able to access trackiitt.com. I am only able to view cached pages from Google server.

No problem for me.

[indiani]

Matt,

I have 154 because sd37 is CC to UAE.

I am bang on your 2,500 mark.

Currently I have 51 TSC, 102 NSC and 1 CSC so we are counting the same.

I also agree with your estimate of c. 13k in your previous post. Originally, I might have said 12k, but early indications are that it is a bit higher than that as "upgrades are looking higher than I had allowed for.

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Current approval rate in August is about 9.2k/month (although that will increase as people update the tracker), compared to the 13k that have possibly become Current and are approvable.

Your previous post was a bit deja vu, because it said pretty much what I was thinking.

your post gave me a lot of confidence that most of us ( matt, me and others) will be greened by the end of the month.

I am also going to pursue through my congressman's office as I know him personally and they hopefully can at least increase the chances slightly.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

As an after thought about split between interfiles and direct, I think my initial ratio was not correct. Currently we are dividing trackitt approvals pre 2007 : 2007 as a ratio between interfiles: direct. There were around 2500 cases before 2007 in July demand, we have to add 4500 cases to the same, so total pre-2007 approvals should be around 7000, also if we add 500 cases to 2007 demand so 5500+500= 6000, so the overall ratio between interfiles: direct should 7:6 or approx. 1.2:1. Interfile number on the higher side, Am I correct?

[natvyas]

Matt,

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Spec- Could you please shed more light on the statement highlighted above?

Thanks
Nat

[Spectator]

Matt,

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Spec- Could you please shed more light on the statement highlighted above?

Thanks
Nat

Nat,

I could have possibly phrased that better.

Assuming CO allocated the minimum numbers to EB2-I in Oct-July (a fair assumption), EB2-I would have used 2.8k.

The last published Demand Data shows 8k demand to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JAN08.

In addition, there may be up to 5k "upgrades" not reflected in the Demand Data that might be approved.

If all cases were approved, the total number of visas required would be 2.8 + 8.0 + 5.0 = 15.8k for the current Cut Off Date of 01JAB08.

Clearly not all cases will be approved, but the number gives a guide to play with to deduct cases that might be left behind and to add further numbers to future Cut Off Dates.

For instance, it requires a further 3.5k to reach a COD of 01APR08. If 2k were left behind, actual approvals for EB2-I would need to be 15.8 - 2.0 + 3.5 = 17.3k to reach a COD of 01APR08.

I hope that explains better.

[indiani]

Nat,

I could have possibly phrased that better.

Assuming CO allocated the minimum numbers to EB2-I in Oct-July (a fair assumption), EB2-I would have used 2.8k.

The last published Demand Data shows 8k demand to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JAN08.

In addition, there may be up to 5k "upgrades" not reflected in the Demand Data that might be approved.

If all cases were approved, the total number of visas required would be 2.8 + 8.0 + 5.0 = 15.8k for the current Cut Off Date of 01JAB08.

Clearly not all cases will be approved, but the number gives a guide to play with to deduct cases that might be left behind and to add further numbers to future Cut Off Dates.

For instance, it requires a further 3.5k to reach a COD of 01APR08. If 2k were left behind, actual approvals for EB2-I would need to be 15.8 - 2.0 + 3.5 = 17.3k to reach a COD of 01APR08.

I hope that explains better.

Assuming currently about 6K are approved out of 16k (total Demand till jan 1st 2008), if additional few thousands are added, do you think CIS will have the capability to process 10K + (additional cases added with sept COD movement) ?

[natvyas]

Assuming currently about 6K are approved out of 16k (total Demand till jan 1st 2008), if additional few thousands are added, do you think CIS will have the capability to process 10K + (additional cases added with sept COD movement) ?

I dont see why not. When they can do 2.5K in 1 week then why not 10K in 7 weeks.

Regards
Nat

[snrusa]

Finally received the "Card Production" email for me and my spouse. Really dont know how to explain my state of mind now ...
Waited for this moment insanely ...

All the best for all the people who are waiting ...

PD - NOV152007
EB2I - Direct (NSC)