Everyone needs to calm down about rate of approvals, service centers, etc. it's the 6th of August. There's almost 2 months left to get approved. Have faith in the macro calculations that everyone has relied on up to this point.
Remember this - your case is unique. The outcome of some other case does not affect the outcome of your case - at least not this early in the period.
Vizcard,Originally Posted by vizcard
Wise words.
As many as 12k EB2-I cases may have become Current in August.
It is physically impossible to approve that number in a few days. The lack of an approval at this stage is nothing in particular to worry about.
At this stage, even slower TSC approvals should not be a concern, even if it is disappointing. They may have a different strategy and be the tortoise that overtakes the hare.
Good luck to everybody Current in August and hoping to be in September.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
What is your opinion on that June 2008 card production claim - Trackitt - Genuine post upon USCIS's mistake or OP's efforts to attract attention ?Vizcard,
At this stage, even slower TSC approvals should not be a concern, even if it is disappointing. They may have a different strategy and be the tortoise that overtakes the hare.
Kanmani,
As a single data point, it is as likely to be a USCIS error as a portent of movement to come. It has certainly happened before.
I don't get the sense that the person is lying in any way. I wouldn't want to be in their situation. In another recent case, the person returned the GC that was approved in error.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
I don't know the same case you are referring to, I saw one , the person returned his GC on his attorney's advice later when he tried to extend his EAD he was informed that he has no pending I-485 to support his EAD extension. Lesson learnt - Returning the GC could make the situation worse!
My Question is that why in the heaven do I bother whether the PD is current or not at the time of my approval ? I have an approved Immigrant Visa, requested USCIS to grant me PR- card, I am granted !
Am I wrong?
Viz, Spec and other Gurus, thanks for the encouraging words....I understand its far too early to start panicking, but I was just expressing my frustration looking at the steady progress @ NSC versus baby stepping close to a stall @TSC looking at the trackitt approvals....Let's hope TSC takes some tips from NSC and improves its pace over the next few days!...we can only hope, right?
Maybe I'm jumping to conclusions here but rate of processing at TSC tells me that dates are going to move Apr/May 08 easily. The rationale behind is that owing to RFE's issued the adjudicators dont know if its a valid case until they review the documents. Hence by the time the September bulletin comes out the RFE cases might not be reviewed. So the in order to avoid wastage the CO might move the dates out further than he has numbers for. This means that people might get left behind again.
Seems like a classic case where too much knowledge can be dangerous! There's a lot of us that try and educate ourselves about priority dates, movement patterns and the like - when when vast majority dont care. They are told by their employers that they will be sponsored for permanent residence, provide what the lawyers ask for and - one day - receive their green cards in the mail. In truth, they are oblivious to PERMs and I-140s and 485s and priority dates and cutoff dates! If one of them got their visas in error (when their date was not current) they would not know and probably would never find out; they use it and enjoy it (and if/when someone asks, they honestly wont know) - whereas someone knowledgeable in the process works themselves to paranoia and returns their GC... the irony!
The Person with PD June 2008 on trackitt just got a tracking # for USPS mail for delivery on Aug 8th.
I feel bad for him for no fault of his he has to undergo so much heartburn.He doesn't know if he needs to feel happy or sad due to this whole approval process when dates are not current..
Are we sure this is a GC and not an EAD card? I apologize if this is a dumb question but I didn't actually go to trackit
If it were me, I'd be happy and end it right there. If anything, USCIS screwed up. He/she shouldn't have to pay for it. There's no way they will ask him to return it
Last edited by vizcard; 08-06-2013 at 04:02 PM.
Understand that USCIS has upto 60 days to review and adjudicate the RFE response cases, so would it be fair to say that a bulk of the mass RFE applications @ TSC should be getting adjudicated in the second of half of August? (since most of the TSC folks responded to their June 14th RFEs between mid to late June time frame and will be reaching the end of the 60 day window starting August 15th onwards)
So the hope is that TSC is currently busy working on these RFE response cases and hence less approvals at the moment but as we pass the Aug 15th mark, we should start to see them churning out more approvals (if not mass approvals)?....what do others think?
Last edited by longwait100; 08-06-2013 at 04:16 PM. Reason: addition
yeah vizcard that is now the million $ question..is it GC or EAD and i think even he is panicking so we need to wait till 8th Aug when he updates everyone again.
Maybe I'm jumping to a conclusion here but rate of processing at TSC tells me that dates are going to move Apr/May 08 easily. The rationale behind is that owing to RFE's issued the adjudicators dont know if its a valid case until they review the documents. Hence by the time the September bulletin comes out the RFE cases might not be reviewed. So the in order to avoid wastage the CO might move the dates out further than he has numbers for. This means that people might get left behind again.
The difference in the number of visas required between a Cut Off Date of say 01APR08 and the 01JUL08 required to cover the reported June 30, 2008 PD approval is about 4.5k.
It's possible if EB1 come in quite low and EB2-WW stall, but 4.5k as a % of expected numbers is quite a high %.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
strange are the ways of uscis...just like any govt. org. no logic for anything they do
She will become out of status once they reject your I485 application and rejecting your I485 application may take some time. If it ever happens that you have to leave your employer before 180 days than make sure that your wife should be on H4 while you are on H1, i guess this will be the safest approach. This is my understanding of the law.
You might keep her on EAD unless they reject your AOS and once they do then you have to make sure you have the resources to get her on H4 as soon as possible..I am not sure if this is something which is possible or advisable.
NSC | PD: Sept, 2007 | RD: 21-Nov, 2011 | ND: 29-Nov, 2011 | FP Notice: 27-Dec,2011| FP Done: 27-Dec,2011
EAD/AP(Approval Email): 5-Jan, 2012 | EAD/AP(Physical Card): 11-Jan, 2012
GC(Approval Email): 08/16/2013 | GC(Physical Card): ??
Again that's assuming all prior backlog is cleared. If we go at a 80% approval rating of backlog (totally made up), you need 3.6k.
It's an extra 4.5k regardless of how many up to April 1 are approved. It is the difference between the two dates, not the total to reach the date.
I agree you could deduct a proportion that 4.5k would not get approved.
Even 3.6k is a significant number and %.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.
Total to date - 87
Aug 1 -- 17
Aug 2 -- 21
Aug 3 -- 10
Aug 4 --- 0
Aug 5 -- 22
Aug 6 -- 17
Total -- 87
Service Center
Nebraska -- 55 -- 63.22%
Texas ----- 31 -- 35.63%
California - 1 --- 1.15%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%
Total ----- 87 - 100.00%
Priority Date
PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 ---- 8 ---- 1 ------ 9
2005 --- 11 ---- 3 ----- 14
2006 --- 20 ---- 2 ----- 22
2007 --- 42 ---- 0 ----- 42
Total -- 81 ---- 6 ----- 87
Pre 2007 PD - 45 -- 51.72%
2007 PD ----- 42 -- 48.28%
Total ------- 87 - 100.00%
I'm not convinced that any particular pattern for the whole month has been set yet.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Spec ! Nice summary...
spec,
I guess about 1000 approx. total approvals could be there so far with TSC slowing down to a point of dismal outlook. what percentage of the applications would never be touched ( based on history + pace of approvals).
I am seeing a pattern of earlier RD of TSC approving,
I applied in april 2012 and almost all the TSC approvals so far have applied jan 2012 or earlier, I think at TSC they might be considering RD
indiani,
I think it equates to rather more than 1,000, because of the relatively high number of porting cases in the figures to date.
When you say "would never be touched" what exactly do you mean? Do you mean - would not be approved this year?
Last edited by Spectator; 08-06-2013 at 10:01 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant "not approved " as they just aren't reviewed either because the visas are exhausted or they just don't get time to process or other reason ( not including the ones which are denied or RFE sent).
The reason why I am interested in the above prediction is to calculate my risk of not getting GC this fiscal. I am confident that once they review mine almost certainly they might approve but what I am worried about is the fact that they " never get chance to review mine".
I am hoping its less than 10%.
Indiani,
Does it matter? Like I said in my previous post, ppl need to stop overreacting to what's happening. These are "micro trends" if we can even call them that. At the very least they are not indicative of what really will happen. It's just too small a sample set. My point is all this stress is not healthy. I understand the feeling of helplessness but if you feel the need to do something, reach out to your Congressman.
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