Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[idiotic]

except for pedro the day worker who gets paid in cash for services rendered

It's tough for someone to live in USA only on cash income. Tea party's logic "Self Deportation"

[gs1968]

Of the 6 senators who didn't vote yesterday, 2 are democrats (Sherrod Brown and Tom Udall) - seems they could not vote 'coz their flights were delayed. The 2 republicans who have appeared neutral but lean towards supporting the overall measure are both GA senators (Chambliss and Isakson). In theory the overall yeas' could be 71. Worse case 69.

The vote count may go higher according to this Conservative source

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...medium=twitter

I missed this article earlier and there might be more piecemeal Bills to come

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily...id=site_search

There will also be an as-yet undefined bill to “address the millions of individuals currently living unlawfully in the U.S.,” Goodlatte said. No word yet on how that dicey trick is accomplished.

[geterdone]

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3...migration-deal

gs - my understanding is that the dems threw in legal immigration expansion as a bone to GOP. Now if GOP fails to pick up that bone by saying the legal expansion itself needs to be visa neutral then dems have thrown a wrong bone and eventually they will have no bone left for GOP on this topic (as far as house is concerned.). And at that point senate's wish doesn't matter thus sealing the fate of the bill.

As per Boehner - although he is speaker, he can and should round up his guys in the house. But he has consistently failed at it. Latest example being the farm bill.

Mitch McConnell on the other hand is the chief architect of opposition to all-things-obama. If you remember he is the one who infamously said that his GOPs biggest agenda would be to prevent this president from getting a second term. And although he failed at that- he has granted obama little to none success on the legislative side. Obama - other than health care - has been utterly unable to achieve any significant legislative victory in the house. Latest there was failure of a gun legislation. So the only arrow obama has left in his sack is CIR. If McConnell make him fail in CIR -- obama then loses all the momentum since this will be a second big blow to him this year. There really aren't any other issues left that are as impactful. IMHO rebuilding of infrastructure is one that Obama gave up very easily. Anyway .. but that's why McConnell is the key here.

Makes sense? What do you think?

[gs1968]

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3...migration-deal

To Q & geterdone

http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/23/con...ntribute-here/

I always thought that the dramatic increase in legal immigration in the Senate Bill was to clear the backlog so the undocumented aliens could start the legalization process ( the so-called "back of the line"). Nothing that the House has said or done recently seems to suggest that they are either willing or ready to accept a 50-75% increase in annual legal immigration. For example during the STEM debate last fall-Rep.Smith & co had offered that the spouses and children could join the primary GC holder in the US on V visas but there was no exemption or increase in GCs for them

[qesehmk]

Did you notice this effort is by Darrel Issa?

p.s. - The same one whom Holder had given an earful

I do think that a dramatic increase is difficult at this time.

To Q & geterdone

http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/23/con...ntribute-here/

I always thought that the dramatic increase in legal immigration in the Senate Bill was to clear the backlog so the undocumented aliens could start the legalization process ( the so-called "back of the line"). Nothing that the House has said or done recently seems to suggest that they are either willing or ready to accept a 50-75% increase in annual legal immigration. For example during the STEM debate last fall-Rep.Smith & co had offered that the spouses and children could join the primary GC holder in the US on V visas but there was no exemption or increase in GCs for them

[Spectator]

Did you notice this effort is by Darrel Issa?

p.s. - The same one whom Holder had given an earful

I do think that a dramatic increase is difficult at this time.

Q,

Have you read the SKILLS Bill?

Frankly, the status quo is better than the end result from this Bill.

EB visas on a like-for like basis are increased from 140k to 170k. EB2 and EB3 only receive an increase of 15k each initially (not much more than a third increase). EB1, EB4 and EB5 are left unchanged.

There are an additional 55k for US STEM PhD first then US STEM Masters and 10k for a newly created Entrepreneur Category.

235k in total, but the useful increase is only 85k and only a 30k increase for those who do not have a US Education from a fairly restrictive list of institutions.

At the same time, the Bill increases the H1B limit from 65k + 20k = 85k to 155k + 40k = 195k. That's an increase of 130% for H1B versus an increase of 60% in EB Immigrant visas.

With no exemptions from numerical limitations for anybody and no visa recapture, after a very short term benefit to existing applicants, the backlogs would actually become larger and overall retrogression would be worse.

The Bill eliminates a total of 120k immigrant visas from the Diversity program (55k) and FB4 (65k). It then gives 95k to EB (of which 65k are for new Categories). The remaining 25k are used to increase the F2A allocation.

As I said, I would rather have nothing than the contents of this Bill. It's all about no extra Immigrants overall and increased numbers of Non-immigrants. It does absolutely nothing to fix the underlying problems with the Immigration system.

I have to wonder whether Darrell Issa has a AAA rating with NumbersUSA and FAIR. It sure sounds like it.

[qesehmk]

Spec

AAA from numbersusa - totally agree. In I was talking to the Bill's futility when I made quite an oblique reference to Holder giving earful to Issa.

Check this out .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4dEOfef-R8 - 7:56 onwards is fun part.

Sorry I guess the reference was too oblique.

I have to wonder whether Darrell Issa has a AAA rating with NumbersUSA and FAIR. It sure sounds like it.

[rupen86]

Few tech companies favor giving green cards versus few who do not

a) Google, Facebook, Amazon, Ebay , Microsoft are examples of organizations who favor giving green cards sooner. The primary reason being they are unable to get H1 B's for the creme of the crop irrespective of how much they salary they pay. (the consulting companies with 50 to 60K base pay takes away those H1's)

b) Niche Consulting Companies based in US (not just IT consulting) favor giving green cards for the same reason as above. Right now, even to hire an Hardvard MBA out of school, you will need H1 B which is cap limited and scorged by the low level consulting companies


The ones below do not want any techies to ever get a green card, since it helps their business to keep modern day slavery alive (they will sponsor for few just for name sake)
Luckily for us, these organizations are not good at lobbying (That will quickly change since they have a lot of money and dont know what to do with it)

a) Indian IT headweights like TCS and others ( garangutan list) . They love L1's. I have a feeling that they are bankrolling Grassley (just a joke)
b) small time body shopping consulting firms (Desi / American doesnt matter. After getting green card, 99 % of their employees will not stick to them).
c) Few US consulting organizations like Accenture , IBM etc (their policy for filing green cards have got strict by each year, plus all travel related PERMS get into an audit mostly). Their average employee retention is 13 to 24 months and hence it does not make sense for them to sponsor Green cards. The employees who stay longer at these firms are the H1 B's.


As Q mentioned earlier, looks like CIR is the best hope for all Immigrants. As days go by, even if the economy tanks slightly, they will put the cat back in the bag.

While CIR is the hope, it depends what it contains. Senate has good provisions for green card. House bill almost does not have anything for that and it has more H1Bs. So in the final bill, if senate provisions are removed, we won't get anything significant that we are hoping for.

[Spectator]

Spec

AAA from numbersusa - totally agree. In I was talking to the Bill's futility when I made quite an oblique reference to Holder giving earful to Issa.

Check this out .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4dEOfef-R8 - 7:56 onwards is fun part.

Sorry I guess the reference was too oblique.

Q,

I was so off base, it is actually quite funny.

Thanks for putting me straight.

Edit:- I've seen the clip now - absolutely brilliant!!

[gs1968]

To Spec/Q/rupen

The markup of these Bills is today and I am sure Rep.Lofgren will introduce an amendment for visa recapture.During the HR 3012 mark-up that was shot down as non-germane.Hopefully the mark-up process will improve the Bill.There is however country-cap elimination which will relieve a lot of backlog

[vizcard]

To Spec/Q/rupen

The markup of these Bills is today and I am sure Rep.Lofgren will introduce an amendment for visa recapture.During the HR 3012 mark-up that was shot down as non-germane.Hopefully the mark-up process will improve the Bill.There is however country-cap elimination which will relieve a lot of backlog

I thought visa recapture was already there. It was the use of it that was a little weird - something like only available in the 2nd year onwards.

Maybe I'm imagining things.

[gs1968]

To viz
We will allow Spec to have the final word on this since I assume he must have made a more thorough analysis. My reading of the text of the SKILLS Act shows no sections or wording indicating visa recapture. Rep.Issa had introduced earlier in the year a more narrow Bill called the STEM Visa Act of 2013 (HR 459) which allowed for some rollover of the STEM visas to subsequent years going forward from 2014 if they were not all used up in a single fiscal year. But I did not see these features incorporated into the SKILLS Act.

[gs1968]

Just got this tweet
"In closed door mtg, Boehner just told Rs the House will not bring up the Senate immigration bill"

[vizcard]

To viz
We will allow Spec to have the final word on this since I assume he must have made a more thorough analysis. My reading of the text of the SKILLS Act shows no sections or wording indicating visa recapture. Rep.Issa had introduced earlier in the year a more narrow Bill called the STEM Visa Act of 2013 (HR 459) which allowed for some rollover of the STEM visas to subsequent years going forward from 2014 if they were not all used up in a single fiscal year. But I did not see these features incorporated into the SKILLS Act.

I was mistaken..i was referring to S744 CIR bill.

[vizcard]

Cloture vote on S744 passed (67-31) ... set up for final vote tomorrow or Friday after additional amendments are discussed. All GOP leaders in the Senate voted "No".

Border surge amendment - Leahy 1183 as modified by Corker-Hoeven passes (69-29) !!! this is considered to be an indicator of the final vote.

Budgetary point of order was also defeated (68-30).

[psychedelicNerd]

https://mobile.twitter.com/j_strong/...88953635180544

Jonathan Strong:
In closed door mtg, Boehner just told Rs the House will not bring up the Senate immigration bill

[gs1968]

Couple of news items of note today

Rep.Lamar Smith's e-verify Bill passed with overwhelming support in the HJC (22-9)
This is an area of Immigration where the House and Senate are fairly close to each other with some differences in timing of implementation and can be reconciled in conference

http://lamarsmith.house.gov/news/doc...umentID=340687

Further amendments on the Senate Bill are unlikely and Sen Reid may just pass the Bill as it is tomorrow or Friday.The final tally looks to be 68-32

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...medium=twitter

It is disappointing that in the end none of the Senate Republican leadership agreed in favor of the Bill

[vizcard]

https://mobile.twitter.com/j_strong/...88953635180544

Jonathan Strong:
In closed door mtg, Boehner just told Rs the House will not bring up the Senate immigration bill

Not surprising. JB has always said "the House will impose its will" ... I don't have a lot of faith in him to do the right thing. Now with the Senate GOP leadership not voting for CIR bill, hes got some back up as well.

[gten20]

Will Paul Ryan be able to help CIR in the House?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...95P18020130626

[idiotic]

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44372

Flash CBO report on border surge amendment. Final revised CBO report is available bill would have already passed senate. Nevertheless will be used in Conference.

[vizcard]

Will Paul Ryan be able to help CIR in the House?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...95P18020130626

I hope so. With so many nut jobs in the House GOP, we need a credible conservative to support it and be a champion... Especially since he seems to be on board with the senate version too.

[Jonty Rhodes]

GOP leadership especially in the House should be worried about use of Executive Fiat by the President, especially in the 2nd term as he won't have to face the voters again. Because if CIR does not pass, we will see Executive Orders coming out of White House on Immigration, like DACA last year.

Here is the video of Ed Gillespie, Republican political strategist, senior adviser to Mitt Romney in 2012 during his Presidential Campaign, former Counselor in White House to the President George W. Bush and former Chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC), talking about CIR on CNBC. Sounds like a sensible voice among the nutcases.


http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000178275

[gs1968]

High Skills visa debate today during HJC Markup

http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-va...overnight-tech

Lofgren said she hasn't ruled out voting "yes" for the bill, but noted it would have to incorporate a series of changes in order to win her support.

Might be visa recapture she is talking about. Her amendments would give us a glimpse of what the House Group Bill will contain as she is part of it (if they ever release a Bill)

[idiotic]

I hope so. With so many nut jobs in the House GOP, we need a credible conservative to support it and be a champion... Especially since he seems to be on board with the senate version too.

I saw his interview on Fox News yesterday with Sean Hannity. It is clear he is the "Rubio" equivalent in house to rally enough republicans support there. Anti immigrants in house will never agree to anything just like their senate equivalents. His job will be to gather enough critical republican mass for the bill to pass. Obviously for that to happen the bill will take more right turns.

They will project it as a seperate independent bill(s) originating from house but in substance it will be senate bill with all the right turns (like requiring congress to certify border security, etc).

Can't help to think that this is party stratergy as a whole to let the "likely" "2016 presidential nominees" as front end for CIR.

[coolvibe]

Guru's,

Can you clarify on my question. Everywhere in news I see CIR for illegal immigrants. At this stage is there any room that benefits legal immigrants who are waiting in queue with EB2 and EB3? Can you please clarify how the CIR stands as of now for legal immigrants. Sorry if this is a repeat question in the forum.