EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

I would expect this percentage to be higher for 2008. I personally know 4-5 people who have gone back to India and dont intend to come back even if their PD becomes current.

suninphx,
Agree, this factor changes with economy/trend. Bout we can average it out to 20%(80:20)

[veni001]

As we have been discussing on processing delays(Kazarian guidance, memos...etc)
Read more on USCIS Open Forum Update at this link

[makmohan]

Mak, since I thought it would be miniscule, i never thought of it. Besides these kind of things make our estimates conservative and so my bias is always to exclude them. If you have an idea how to estimate .... would like to hear.

Q,

At least 5 of my friends here are double filers - mixed EB2 and Eb3s.

Assumption of 10% double filer estimates would only change our factor of 2.2 to 2.15 which I don't think will make a big change in our final calculations (may be I am wrong) - 90*2.2 + 10*1.73 = 198 + 17.3 = 215.3/100 = 2.153. I think 10% of EBIC being double filers is a fair assumption for several reasons.

My feeling (not backed by any numbers) is that this factor is powerful enough to cancel out any porting.

- makmohan

[neospeed]

Q,

At least 5 of my friends here are double filers - mixed EB2 and Eb3s.

Assumption of 10% double filer estimates would only change our factor of 2.2 to 2.15 which I don't think will make a big change in our final calculations (may be I am wrong) - 90*2.2 + 10*1.73 = 198 + 17.3 = 215.3/100 = 2.153. I think 10% of EBIC being double filers is a fair assumption for several reasons.

My feeling (not backed by any numbers) is that this factor is powerful enough to cancel out any porting.

- makmohan

Im one of those double filers

[happyboy]

Im one of those double filers

I think there will be at least 20% member either double files including the wife and husbad both having labors. I know few coples both having the labor and 140.

[qesehmk]

Thank you Veni. This is an excellent article that lays out the reasons why EB1 is having such a difficult time this year. What is mentioned here tells you that there is a good likelihood that EB1 woes might continue into 2012. The problem lies with USCIS' stance / need to have discretion in determining whether the evidence provide by an EB1 applicant is "good enough". That "good enough" (my words) is the problem... that provides USCIS sufficient discretion.


For those who don't know what this is all about .... a brief summary -

Just a year back or so - USCIS would count the EB1 evidences and if the count was ok ... they would approve the case without (much) looking into the quality of the evidence. Then came a russian scientist/professor/researcher named Kazarian whose case was denied by USCIS because they said he failed to provide 3 counts of evidences. Courts upon examining his case directed USCIS to count evidence without checking quality and then separately do a quality check. So in essence the courts asked USCIS to not reject kazarian case because he in fact had provided 3 evidences. But courts allowed USCIS to reject kazarian case based on the quality of the evidence.

Now that's what is happening. Because of this 2 stage or 2 prong approach. USCIS is forced to do a quality check on all evidences which is delaying EB1. Additionally there are not very many good guidelines or templates for officers to determine "quality" of each evidence. So you can imagine - the officers tend to deny cases where the evidence is not overwhelming.

This situation is going to continue for foreseeable future until somebody restores sanity to this process. So EB2IC guys this is a good news to you until EB1 guys start filing in EB2!!!

As we have been discussing on processing delays(Kazarian guidance, memos...etc)
Read more on USCIS Open Forum Update at this link

[qesehmk]

Again ... its fine if somebody calculates this and incorportes in their forecast. But my "personal" tendency is to keep these kind of things out of the equation especially when they create upside to the forecast. This way if the actuals turn out better for us that is a pleasant surprise. And if the assumption doesn't hold then at least we are not disappointed.

As per 10% assumption ... that seems a bit high to me. Just gut feeling .... I don't have any solid reason to say why I think 10% is high.

Q,

At least 5 of my friends here are double filers - mixed EB2 and Eb3s.

Assumption of 10% double filer estimates would only change our factor of 2.2 to 2.15 which I don't think will make a big change in our final calculations (may be I am wrong) - 90*2.2 + 10*1.73 = 198 + 17.3 = 215.3/100 = 2.153. I think 10% of EBIC being double filers is a fair assumption for several reasons.

My feeling (not backed by any numbers) is that this factor is powerful enough to cancel out any porting.

- makmohan

[veni001]

Thank you Veni. This is an excellent article that lays out the reasons why EB1 is having such a difficult time this year. What is mentioned here tells you that there is a good likelihood that EB1 woes might continue into 2012. The problem lies with USCIS' stance / need to have discretion in determining whether the evidence provide by an EB1 applicant is "good enough". That "good enough" (my words) is the problem... that provides USCIS sufficient discretion.


For those who don't know what this is all about .... a brief summary -

Just a year back or so - USCIS would count the EB1 evidences and if the count was ok ... they would approve the case without (much) looking into the quality of the evidence. Then came a russian scientist/professor/researcher named Kazarian whose case was denied by USCIS because they said he failed to provide 3 counts of evidences. Courts upon examining his case directed USCIS to count evidence without checking quality and then separately do a quality check. So in essence the courts asked USCIS to not reject kazarian case because he in fact had provided 3 evidences. But courts allowed USCIS to reject kazarian case based on the quality of the evidence.

Now that's what is happening. Because of this 2 stage or 2 prong approach. USCIS is forced to do a quality check on all evidences which is delaying EB1. Additionally there are not very many good guidelines or templates for officers to determine "quality" of each evidence. So you can imagine - the officers tend to deny cases where the evidence is not overwhelming.

This situation is going to continue for foreseeable future until somebody restores sanity to this process. So EB2IC guys this is a good news to you until EB1 guys start filing in EB2!!!

Q,
Agree, even lawyers are talking about post Kazarian era now!
Not only EB1 but EB2 Exceptional ability cases also affected by the USCIS Policy Memorandum resulted from USCUS vs Kazarian case.

[nishant2200]

Q,
Agree, even lawyers are talking about post Kazarian era now!
Not only EB1 but EB2 Exceptional ability cases also affected by the USCIS Policy Memorandum resulted from USCUS vs Kazarian case.

So some thoughts on this. EB1 for these exceptional aliens and EB2 exceptional ability with NIW, both of these were used by organizations like Universities, Hospitals, Non Profit Organizations, and big companies like Cisco or Qualcomm for PhD candidates, post doc grads, professors, intellecutals and so on. Now if you can't do this, you need to go through a very important step. Labor. Which means Prevailing Wage Determination by SWA and attesting to paying that. And also that implies paying a high salary, you can't escape with just anything. Also means a bonafide recruiting effort, advertising, burden of proof for legal and audit purposes.

The organizations mentioned above, except for companies like Cisco, Intel who are big in research and engineering, the universities, hospitals, Non profit's are typically now facing a new process, and something which they didn't face too much before. And they can't just go into EB2 with NIW, they will again face same scrutiny, they need to get into EB2 with Labor, just like us, if they want to reduce the evidence for exceptional research etc.

Until so far on this analysis I have put, let's keep in mind that we should not think just of Indians or Chinese, but other thousands of countries folks, like russians, europeans, who would occupy these visas. and now below an example I will give, which will show, that for a Indian, who would be in EB1 and get his GC asap, now he is into EB2, and that one EB1 visa is going to spill over into EB2.

My friend's relative, Indian, has a PhD, and got a job in Cisco for 100k. Even at this salary, for a PhD, in bay area, normally they would happily go EB1. But now they are not, they know, they can't. So they will have to go through EB2 route with Labor, not NIW.

I think that the criteria for EB1 or EB2 with NIW is quite high, which is great, but only anamoly is the multi-national manager thing in EB1, which is being exploited by some Indian companies. If you say EB1 for researchers has such high criteria, you need research papers, recognition in international journals, scholars in the field to give reference letters, etc then I don't get how a project manager in some huge indian company is level to that They still don't need a labor, and they get into EB1 with even 90k salary in California. That is then being unfair to the professors and PhDs!

[veni001]

So some thoughts on this. EB1 for these exceptional aliens and EB2 exceptional ability with NIW, both of these were used by organizations like Universities, Hospitals, Non Profit Organizations, and big companies like Cisco or Qualcomm for PhD candidates, post doc grads, professors, intellecutals and so on. Now if you can't do this, you need to go through a very important step. Labor. Which means Prevailing Wage Determination by SWA and attesting to paying that. And also that implies paying a high salary, you can't escape with just anything. Also means a bonafide recruiting effort, advertising, burden of proof for legal and audit purposes.

The organizations mentioned above, except for companies like Cisco, Intel who are big in research and engineering, the universities, hospitals, Non profit's are typically now facing a new process, and something which they didn't face too much before. And they can't just go into EB2 with NIW, they will again face same scrutiny, they need to get into EB2 with Labor, just like us, if they want to reduce the evidence for exceptional research etc.

Until so far on this analysis I have put, let's keep in mind that we should not think just of Indians or Chinese, but other thousands of countries folks, like russians, europeans, who would occupy these visas. and now below an example I will give, which will show, that for a Indian, who would be in EB1 and get his GC asap, now he is into EB2, and that one EB1 visa is going to spill over into EB2.

My friend's relative, Indian, has a PhD, and got a job in Cisco for 100k. Even at this salary, for a PhD, in bay area, normally they would happily go EB1. But now they are not, they know, they can't. So they will have to go through EB2 route with Labor, not NIW.

I think that the criteria for EB1 or EB2 with NIW is quite high, which is great, but only anamoly is the multi-national manager thing in EB1, which is being exploited by some Indian companies. If you say EB1 for researchers has such high criteria, you need research papers, recognition in international journals, scholars in the field to give reference letters, etc then I don't get how a project manager in some huge indian company is level to that They still don't need a labor, and they get into EB1 with even 90k salary in California. That is then being unfair to the professors and PhDs!

nishant2200,
Increased scrutiny not only requires labor process(EB1-->EB2) but also cost additional $$ to the employer, in most cases result in delaying the process.

Until last year EB1C usage was averaging about 55% of EB1.
EB1C misuse was across the board even though EB1IC exploited to the max due to EB2IC retrogression. I think in light of new scrutiny not only for EB1/EB2 but also on other VISAs (H1B,L1A/B, B1...ect) we should see significant decrease(EB1 usage) across the board.

At some point USCIS has to catch-up with all EB1/EB2ROW pending inventory, this could be in FY2013 or FY2014..., which may not be a good year for EB2IC counting on SOFAD.

[aary09]

Thanks for the info on kazarian

Thank you Veni. This is an excellent article that lays out the reasons why EB1 is having such a difficult time this year. What is mentioned here tells you that there is a good likelihood that EB1 woes might continue into 2012. The problem lies with USCIS' stance / need to have discretion in determining whether the evidence provide by an EB1 applicant is "good enough". That "good enough" (my words) is the problem... that provides USCIS sufficient discretion.


For those who don't know what this is all about .... a brief summary -

Just a year back or so - USCIS would count the EB1 evidences and if the count was ok ... they would approve the case without (much) looking into the quality of the evidence. Then came a russian scientist/professor/researcher named Kazarian whose case was denied by USCIS because they said he failed to provide 3 counts of evidences. Courts upon examining his case directed USCIS to count evidence without checking quality and then separately do a quality check. So in essence the courts asked USCIS to not reject kazarian case because he in fact had provided 3 evidences. But courts allowed USCIS to reject kazarian case based on the quality of the evidence.

Now that's what is happening. Because of this 2 stage or 2 prong approach. USCIS is forced to do a quality check on all evidences which is delaying EB1. Additionally there are not very many good guidelines or templates for officers to determine "quality" of each evidence. So you can imagine - the officers tend to deny cases where the evidence is not overwhelming.

This situation is going to continue for foreseeable future until somebody restores sanity to this process. So EB2IC guys this is a good news to you until EB1 guys start filing in EB2!!!

[makmohan]

But my "personal" tendency is to keep these kind of things out of the equation especially when they create upside to the forecast.

I agree 100% with you as these factors can be negligible and can mess real calculations. These factors can only add some optimism which can be a pleasant surprise for us. Let's wait and watch. Thanks!

- makmohan

[pch053]

Q, Veni, Nishant,
I think what you guys are saying makes perfect sense. I know of two current EB1A cases of my friends that are pending o& going through RFEs (I feel there is a good chance of getting denied) that would have gotten approved 2 years back. I have seen multiple average cases getting approved in 2008 - 2009 and the catch now is the "quality" of evidence. Previously, someone with a few publications in not so high impact factor journals, few citations of his/her work and having reviewed a couple of papers have been accepted because s/he satisfied 3 criteria of i) publication, ii) others have cited his/her work and iii) the person has judged other's work. But, now these cases will almost surely be rejected. I think the big employers like Cisco, Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Adobe and many others won't have issues in taking the EB2 route and based on my personal experience, they are quite stringent while applying under EB1B category. The lawyer specifically told me that unless your job is a 100% research job we can't go for EB1B; some companies use the 100% research job duties very strictly and some companies are not that stringent on this issue. I think the real problem will be for Post Doctoral researchers, research scientists in universities, etc who now have to go with EB2 option. I also do feel that number of EB2 applicants will increase. As Q mentioned, many of the EB1A, EB1B and EB2NIW will now apply under EB2 category; so, not sure at the end of the day how much beneficial it will be for EB2I/C.

[veni001]

Q, Veni, Nishant,
I think what you guys are saying makes perfect sense. I know of two current EB1A cases of my friends that are pending o& going through RFEs (I feel there is a good chance of getting denied) that would have gotten approved 2 years back. I have seen multiple average cases getting approved in 2008 - 2009 and the catch now is the "quality" of evidence. Previously, someone with a few publications in not so high impact factor journals, few citations of his/her work and having reviewed a couple of papers have been accepted because s/he satisfied 3 criteria of i) publication, ii) others have cited his/her work and iii) the person has judged other's work. But, now these cases will almost surely be rejected. I think the big employers like Cisco, Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Adobe and many others won't have issues in taking the EB2 route and based on my personal experience, they are quite stringent while applying under EB1B category. The lawyer specifically told me that unless your job is a 100% research job we can't go for EB1B; some companies use the 100% research job duties very strictly and some companies are not that stringent on this issue. I think the real problem will be for Post Doctoral researchers, research scientists in universities, etc who now have to go with EB2 option. I also do feel that number of EB2 applicants will increase. As Q mentioned, many of the EB1A, EB1B and EB2NIW will now apply under EB2 category; so, not sure at the end of the day how much beneficial it will be for EB2I/C.

pch053,
If EB1 trend continue similar to this year( 50% or less usage) in future, then EB2 can bank on 20k from EB1 and 5-8k from EB5 every year.
Even if EB2ROW takes all spillover from EB5 due to increased filings, since EBC is getting less PERM filings,EB2I can continue to receive 20K on average every year, which could help EB2I to stick to the 5 year rule to get GC!

[snathan]

Thank you Veni. This is an excellent article that lays out the reasons why EB1 is having such a difficult time this year. What is mentioned here tells you that there is a good likelihood that EB1 woes might continue into 2012. The problem lies with USCIS' stance / need to have discretion in determining whether the evidence provide by an EB1 applicant is "good enough". That "good enough" (my words) is the problem... that provides USCIS sufficient discretion.


For those who don't know what this is all about .... a brief summary -

Just a year back or so - USCIS would count the EB1 evidences and if the count was ok ... they would approve the case without (much) looking into the quality of the evidence. Then came a russian scientist/professor/researcher named Kazarian whose case was denied by USCIS because they said he failed to provide 3 counts of evidences. Courts upon examining his case directed USCIS to count evidence without checking quality and then separately do a quality check. So in essence the courts asked USCIS to not reject kazarian case because he in fact had provided 3 evidences. But courts allowed USCIS to reject kazarian case based on the quality of the evidence.

Now that's what is happening. Because of this 2 stage or 2 prong approach. USCIS is forced to do a quality check on all evidences which is delaying EB1. Additionally there are not very many good guidelines or templates for officers to determine "quality" of each evidence. So you can imagine - the officers tend to deny cases where the evidence is not overwhelming.

This situation is going to continue for foreseeable future until somebody restores sanity to this process. So EB2IC guys this is a good news to you until EB1 guys start filing in EB2!!!

It should not have any impact for the EB2IC. Once the EB2 ROW consumes its annual quota, it has to wait for spill over from the EB1. But the spill over visas will be given to the oldest PD first. So the EB2Ic will get the visa.

[veni001]

It should not have any impact for the EB2IC. Once the EB2 ROW consumes its annual quota, it has to wait for spill over from the EB1. But the spill over visas will be given to the oldest PD first. So the EB2Ic will get the visa.

snathan,
EB2IC will only get spillover VISAs after satisfying EB2ROW demand!

[snathan]

snathan,
EB2IC will only get spillover VISAs after satisfying EB2ROW demand!

Can you explain....Shouldnt it go to olderst PD first when it comes to spill over?

[qesehmk]

Why not? this year EB2IC are benefitting from the woes of EB1. As EB1 moves to EB2 the ROW demand will be higher than usual. That's how EB2IC will stop benefitting from the kazarian situation.

It should not have any impact for the EB2IC. Once the EB2 ROW consumes its annual quota, it has to wait for spill over from the EB1. But the spill over visas will be given to the oldest PD first. So the EB2Ic will get the visa.

Can you explain....Shouldnt it go to olderst PD first when it comes to spill over?

Spec had explained this a while back and I would say jury is out on this one. But the theory is that EB2ROW doesn't spillover to EB2IC until ALL ROW countries reach their 7%. Practically EB2ROW demand finishes much before consuming their own quota and hence we haven't seen if Spec's theory is true.

[Spectator]

Can you explain....Shouldnt it go to olderst PD first when it comes to spill over?

snathan,

Probably the best thing is to read post #16 in this thread http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs

If EB2-ROW had demand in excess of their allocation, they would be "qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas", since Countries within it would not yet have reached their individual 7% limits.

Only when demand from such cases had been satisfied can the provisions of INA 202 (a)(5) come into play which allows visas to be allocated to Countries who have reached their own 7% limit.

It is only then that the provisions of INA 203(e), which stipulates that visas are awarded "to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General" come into play for China and India.

Until that point, China and India are not eligible to receive spare visas, so it would be the earliest PDs in the pool of ROW applicants.

[neospeed]

Just wondering what will be the conservative, realistic and maximum movement for Aug vb based on the data we have?

[veni001]

Just wondering what will be the conservative, realistic and maximum movement for Aug vb based on the data we have?

neospeed,
My predictions never came true, but let me try!

EB2IC for AUG2011VB
Conservative:01JUN2007
Realistic:01AUG2007
Maximum:01JAN2008

[qesehmk]

Veni

The only thing I might wonder is whether they will move dates post Jul 2007 prior to Sep 2011? I would think they should do it either in Sep or Oct if at all they are going to do it.

neospeed,
My predictions never came true, but let me try!

EB2IC for AUG2011VB
Conservative:01JUN2007
Realistic:01AUG2007
Maximum:01JAN2008

[veni001]

Veni

The only thing I might wonder is whether they will move dates post Jul 2007 prior to Sep 2011? I would think they should do it either in Sep or Oct if at all they are going to do it.

Q,
As long as DOS/USCIS have plan to move EB2IC dates post July 2007 in CY2011 then i don't think it will make any difference if they move it in AUG Vs OCT, they would rather move dates earlier than FY start!

[pch053]

I think in the last 3 bulletins, roughly 24K spillovers have been used for EB2-I/C. We need another 10K - 11K spillovers to clear the pending I485 applications. To move the PDs to 1st Aug'07 (i.e. clearing almost all of the pending applications), it will be a similar forward movement (~20 weeks) like the July bulletin. If USCIS estimates that another 11K spillover is available, will they move the dates to Aug'07 in the Aug bulletin itself or will they move the dates forward by 2 - 3 months in Aug bulletin and then provide the final surge in Sep bulletin (i.e. split the movement into 2 steps). I guess no one knows the real answer but I think Q mentioned in one of the earlier posts about the pros of moving the dates to Aug'07 in the Aug'11 bulletin itself. On the flip side, if USCIS feels that there are not 11K spillovers left, they will probably move the dates to anywhere around May'07 - Aug'07 depending on their spillover estimates.

[pch053]

On a different note, this trackitt thread emphasizes on "quality" of one's credentials (publications, citations, etc) for EB1 approval:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page