Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[geterdone]

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-actio...migration-bill

The vote was 57-43.

Question- if the final vote on the bill is also 57-43 (just an assumption) is that a fail since it did not get 60 or it just needs a simple majority?

[gs1968]

We're so not even close to the end game. Its more like they are deciding the rules of the game before starting it.

Assuming it does go through the House, I'll bet there are so many points of contention with the Senate bill that conference will likely take as long as the House and Senate processes (2-3 months easy)
- border security (this itself is a cluster)
- H1Bs
- family based immigration/ points system
- benefits/fees
- pure number of immigrant workers - based on the tenuous compromises between the labor and business groups.

Sorry viz-just trying to pump everybody up.Anyway no further action till Monday

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...medium=twitter

Personally I feel that the Go8 & Democrats got a little bit rattled by the vote count on the first vote and decided to cool things off and discuss more before the
next votes

In response to the 60 vote threshold question-After all amendments have been discussed and dispensed with, there will be a cloture vote to end debate which will need a 60 vote threshold.If that passes and cloture is invoked then a simple majority is all that is necessary for final passage.If the cloture fails-the Bill will most likely die unless debate is resumed again

[girish989]

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-actio...migration-bill

The vote was 57-43.

Question- if the final vote on the bill is also 57-43 (just an assumption) is that a fail since it did not get 60 or it just needs a simple majority?

Only simple majority needed, that is why - even Ted Cruz says that bill will pass the senate.

[jackbrown_890]

to table an amendment and final passage of the bill are different things,,
to table a motion requires 67 nays to not kill that motion,,
the bill's final passage (in senate) will require 60 votes to stop GOP (in this case) from using filibuster,,

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-actio...migration-bill

The vote was 57-43.

Question- if the final vote on the bill is also 57-43 (just an assumption) is that a fail since it did not get 60 or it just needs a simple majority?

[gs1968]

House conference on immigration

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...onathan-strong

Why wait till July when we have all of June left?

[idiotic]

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-actio...migration-bill

The vote was 57-43.

Question- if the final vote on the bill is also 57-43 (just an assumption) is that a fail since it did not get 60 or it just needs a simple majority?

Reid said yesterday on senate floor.

"60 votes on everything" is Mitch mcconnell rule

CIR as written has clearly 60+ votes but the republican amedments do not have 60 votes. Reps and Dems know this fact.. It will pass Senate for sure. Real fate for this bill is in house. If the bill passes with 70+ votes as sponsors are trying to get more on board then house will have no choice politically but to pass it with minor alterations..

[rupen86]

House conference on immigration

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...onathan-strong

Why wait till July when we have all of June left?

Goodlatte is holding conference on immigration anyway. So how is this going to be different?

[idiotic]

House conference on immigration

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...onathan-strong

Why wait till July when we have all of June left?

Indication that he is waiting for the final passed version of senate bill to start amending

they are not able to produce anything in a bipartisan way with support of all major groups like unions/chamber of commerce, etc...

[vizcard]

Indication that he is waiting for the final passed version of senate bill to start amending

they are not able to produce anything in a bipartisan way with support of all major groups like unions/chamber of commerce, etc...

you are spot on

[Jonty Rhodes]

We know that he is not the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree but this was amusing. It cracked me up. "Immigrants are more fertile" by Jeb Bush and the comments are even more hilarious.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ile/?hpt=hp_t3

[vizcard]

I moved a post by silverlining027 to the "Predictions and Calculations" thread on page 84

[rupen86]

It has been very quiet here from last few days. Here is the big story. House on its way to produce a bill as early as tomorrow.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ill-92941.html

[gs1968]

Two other big stories

http://washingtonexaminer.com/suppor...rticle/2532058

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ion-92967.html

[idiotic]

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil...ments/s744.pdf

CBO report.. -- Good News for supporters !! Bad news for opposers !!

[gs1968]

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil...ments/s744.pdf

CBO report.. -- Good News for supporters !! Bad news for opposers !!

This was expected and I don't think it changes anybody's mind.The Republicans were not in favor of dynamic scoring which is exactly what the CBO report does.

[idiotic]

This was expected and I don't think it changes anybody's mind.The Republicans were not in favor of dynamic scoring which is exactly what the CBO report does.

The report is better than even Schumer or any pro reform group was expecting. Bad CBO report would have meant tough road ahead in house. This report proved that there are no valid good arguments against CIR. We know the true intentions of the people who are against the reform(refer numbersusa/FAIR/etc). The report is not going to make a difference to them anyway but just will corner them more against their invalid arguments.

[idiotic]

All NJ folks should contact Jeff Chiesa's office to request him to vote for passge of S.744.

Chiesa, Jeff - (R - NJ) Class II
1 RUSSELL COURTYARD WASHINGTON DC 20510
(202) 224-3224
E-mail: Senator_Chiesa@Chiesa.Senate.gov

[rupen86]

Senate Republicans on the cusp of buying in?

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Deco...o/%28page%29/2

[gs1968]

The report is better than even Schumer or any pro reform group was expecting. Bad CBO report would have meant tough road ahead in house. This report proved that there are no valid good arguments against CIR. We know the true intentions of the people who are against the reform(refer numbersusa/FAIR/etc). The report is not going to make a difference to them anyway but just will corner them more against their invalid arguments.

The report is already being twisted by different factions to suit their own agenda. Personally I cannot see how any individual or agency can predict the state of affairs 20 years from now with any degree of certainty

http://washingtonexaminer.com/corker...stom_click=rss

[gs1968]

Senate Republicans on the cusp of buying in?

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Deco...o/%28page%29/2

More conflicting news stories albeit from a right wing source

http://washingtonexaminer.com/gop-ai...stom_click=rss

[rupen86]

More conflicting news stories albeit from a right wing source

http://washingtonexaminer.com/gop-ai...stom_click=rss

Analysis, partially looks correct. They seem to be negotiating on border security with Hoeven and Corker and abandoned Cornyn. Those 2 do not have same authority as Cornyn and are not expected to bring significant support with them. I believe, 70 looks a stretch now. It will get between 60 and 70.

[gs1968]

Analysis, partially looks correct. They seem to be negotiating on border security with Hoeven and Corker and abandoned Cornyn. Those 2 do not have same authority as Cornyn and are not expected to bring significant support with them. I believe, 70 looks a stretch now. It will get between 60 and 70.

To rupen
This link substantiates your line of thought about the Hoeven-Corker amendment (Cornyn-lite?!)

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ity-93063.html

Vote tally most likely closer to 60 than 70 unless Democrats start agreeing to some Republican amendments. Even the most punitive and dumb Republican amendments are getting at least 35 GOP votes

[triplet]

I am not sure 60 votes will be enough, if a democratic majority is being strong armed into compromising their ideal markers for the bill then imagine its fate as it makes its way to the House. I was quite optimistic about this bill but I think it is dying a slow death, quite frustrating. There might still be an outside chance but we can all agree that that's pretty slim. Disappointing.

[immitime]

To rupen
This link substantiates your line of thought about the Hoeven-Corker amendment (Cornyn-lite?!)

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ity-93063.html

Vote tally most likely closer to 60 than 70 unless Democrats start agreeing to some Republican amendments. Even the most punitive and dumb Republican amendments are getting at least 35 GOP votes

Both the parties should do compromises and sacrifices... Why Democrats want to mix Illegal immigration with Legal immigration, that is the most dumbest thing in the world. Why they want everything comprehensive. Legals have been made hostages for their sefish needs the Votes.

I am sarccastic here. "Don't worry buddy, the undisputed Administration is preparing a comprehensive executive order if this ComB apprehensive immigration bill is not passed" as per reports on Feb 2013. If the current Administration have real leadership they will do executive order may be only for Illegals to give passport within three years.. No votes for Legals.. so all EBs (EB2 & EB3) will eternally wait in the Queue

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbar...-know-n1514143

[idiotic]

Both the parties should do compromises and sacrifices... Why Democrats want to mix Illegal immigration with Legal immigration, that is the most dumbest thing in the world. Why they want everything comprehensive. Legals have been made hostages for their sefish needs the Votes.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbar...-know-n1514143

Just to add.. "Do not think republicans will let legal immigration to be reformed too". Best example is fate of HR3012 lat year. Grassley and others will not let anything through. Better support Gang of 8 in their effort to completely overhaul immigration.