EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[leo07]

This must be applied ONLY to H1b, but Ron Gotcher feels that it's being applied to 140 cases as well.

Teddy - whats the E2E memo?

[Spectator]

Spec I am not sure about this. I think whether a 485 is preadjudicated or not the corresponding 140 case would be classified as P or W until it is approved or denied.

Secondly, 485 adjudication will not happen unless the underlying 140 is approved. So not sure what you mean by preadj.

However I do agree that the data itself is not quite clean and so probably not much helpful.



Teddy completions do include denials as well. So the formula should still work. I don't understand the logic behind what you are saying. Please illustrate.

Q,

Actually it is my fault. I was talking about I-485 dashboard figures rather than the I-140 you were actually talking about. I really must learn to read more carefully!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy completions do include denials as well. So the formula should still work. I don't understand the logic behind what you are saying. Please illustrate.

Q consider the folowing scenarios. So if the case is receipted in the same month and at the end of the month its pending its fine however next month this record gets orphaned there is another possibility its receipted then it goes to RFE (W) and then pending then this equation breaks down. What if they are recording only the latest even then the equation breaks down. So at best the dashboard is a snapshot.

[pch053]

Ability to pay is definitely going to hit small and typical consulting companies hard, many of them are compelling people to apply in EB3 due to this. I have a colleague who with 10 plus years of work experience being pushed to EB3 as the company says EB2 will be denied.

I thought "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.

[TeddyKoochu]

I thought the issue of "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.

I don’t know if my colleague was taken for a ride but for EB2 they will definitely scrutinize to the fullest as you say the difference may not be that much in terms of the numbers but probably the justification of high salary in a small company is harder to give they would ask for the details of every employee in the company. With EB3 maybe they are a little lenient. Like for example the position is senior analyst its harder to justify for a smaller company they have to justify how many analysts / developers what each of them is paid and then what the senior analyst will pay, this literally goes beyond what exactly ability to pay should be. The practice of EB3 being safe is still being sold to people who a) Don't know about EB3-I situation b) Who are in their late H1 years and want to play it safe for a 3 yr extension.

[Tomtuat]

Hi Gurus & other members,

Though I've been following several immigration forums, I never posted enthing anywhere. So this is my first post and here I must say that "this is THE BEST forum in terms of prediction, facts, statistics, mutual respect ...." Thanks to Q for starting such a wonderful forum and thanks to all other gurus and members for their valuable and sincere input.

My PD is June 05 2008. Can you please let me know how soon I can "file my 485" (bast case and worst case) based on the available data and assumptions? Really appreciate your help.

Cheers
Tom

[qesehmk]

Teddy

We will never know. But I common sense would say if tehy make it W then its no longer P. Anyway ... but just wanted to point out that 140 data is not useful because of tehse issues.

Q consider the folowing scenarios. So if the case is receipted in the same month and at the end of the month its pending its fine however next month this record gets orphaned there is another possibility its receipted then it goes to RFE (W) and then pending then this equation breaks down. What if they are recording only the latest even then the equation breaks down. So at best the dashboard is a snapshot.

PCH you are absolutely right. The issue however is not ability to pay for all cases. Its really situations where the employer has applied multiple 140s for teh same candidate, that's where USCIS is asking ability to pay for all those different positions. I would imagine these kind of situations are lingering on the border of fraud.

I thought "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.

[qesehmk]

perhaps as soon as Sep-Nov 2011 (60% chance) or as late as (sep-nov 2013 - 100% chance).

p.s. - Regardless when you file, you should have a GC w you by Dec 2013 (assuming u r EB2).

My PD is June 05 2008. Can you please let me know how soon I can "file my 485" (bast case and worst case) based on the available data and assumptions? Really appreciate your help.

[leo07]

I believe Q meant Sep-Nov 2012

perhaps as soon as Sep-Nov 2011 (60% chance) or as late as (sep-nov 2013 - 100% chance).

p.s. - Regardless when you file, you should have a GC w you by Dec 2013 (assuming u r EB2).

[gcq]

I thought "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.

Ability to pay was a standard RFE for small companies all the time. For bigger companies, USCIS generally never bothered about ability to pay. Not sure whether Ron means USCIS is going after bigger companies too.

Anyways this is not an issue as most of the companies take A2P into consideration before they apply for GC for any employee.

[kd2008]

Q, Veni, Spec,

Would be possible to create a data page similar to i140 to i1485 Ratios (From DHS Year Books of Statistics) but with PERM certifications to i1485 Ratios?

I know this wouldn't be as accurate at the i140 to i485 ratios due to nearly 8 months of cycle time for ROW and inherent backlogs for EB2 I & C, EB3 all, but it will give us some sense of what percentage of PERM certifications do get translated into i485 filings.

Thanks!

[Tomtuat]

Thanks Q and Leo!

I hope Q meant 2012

I believe Q meant Sep-Nov 2012

[hoping4thebest]

I have been following this thread and understand that we probably have visibility into late 2007 or even mid 2008 PDs. But based on the PERM/I140 and other data for post-July 2007 cases...do you guys have a rough estimate of when the VB might reach early 2009 [My pd is Jan 2009 ]. Any likely of this happening towards end of FY2012 (July-Sep 2012)??
As always, thanks for your excellent analysis and efforts.

[vizcard]

first time poster.

The earlier posts seem to indicate that the USCIS may move the PD to mid 2008 some time in Oct 2011 and then retrogress in Nov or Dec 2011.

I think regardless, it would be prudent to keep your documentation ready to pull the trigger as soon as it becomes current.

[kd2008]

kd2008,
It can't be 1.5 times! Just look at PERM & 485data for I&C for CY 2006

I&C 2006 PD Certified in FY2006 = 18,011
I&C 2006 PD Certified FY2007-11 =14,746
I&C 2006 PD Total = 32,757
EB2I&C 2006 PD 485 known demand =27,159+porting based on Dec 2009 inventory update.

Ratio ~= 0.83

Note:This is only for discussion purposes for people like to get EB2IC ballpark estimate based on PERM approvals.

Veni,

I am looking at Jan 2007-July 2007 data:

EB2I&C 2007 PD 485 known demand from Dec 2009 inventory = 15800
I&C 2007 PD certified in jan-july 2007 = 11500 (from PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown), 16326 - 4842 = 11484)

Surely, here the ratio is 1.4

Please help me understand how the ratio was 0.83 in 2006 but 1.4 in jan-july 2007.

[Spectator]

Veni,

I am looking at Jan 2007-July 2007 data:

EB2I&C 2007 PD 485 known demand from Dec 2009 inventory = 15800
I&C 2007 PD certified in jan-july 2007 = 11500 (from PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown), 16326 - 4842 = 11484)

Surely, here the ratio is 1.4

Please help me understand how the ratio was 0.83 in 2006 but 1.4 in jan-july 2007.

I don't think the calculation for 2006 is valid, since the Inventory for 2006 cases never represented the full picture.

PDs in 2006 were Current both in July 2007 and August-September 2008. By the time the Inventory was first published in 2009, numbers had already been approved and it is impossible to know the original starting number. China had reached January 2006 in June 2007 and Sep-Nov 2007.

It is unlikely that many (if any) 2007 cases were approved in July 2007, as all were new applications and the dates had never moved into 2007 until the July VB. All Inventories published should therefore represent the total number of cases filed to date.

[veni001]

Veni,

I am looking at Jan 2007-July 2007 data:

EB2I&C 2007 PD 485 known demand from Dec 2009 inventory = 15800
I&C 2007 PD certified in jan-july 2007 = 11500 (from PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown), 16326 - 4842 = 11484)

Surely, here the ratio is 1.4

Please help me understand how the ratio was 0.83 in 2006 but 1.4 in jan-july 2007.

I don't think the calculation for 2006 is valid, since the Inventory for 2006 cases never represented the full picture.

PDs in 2006 were Current both in July 2007 and July-September 2008. By the time the Inventory was first published in 2009, numbers had already been approved and it is impossible to know the original starting number.

It is unlikely that many (if any) 2007 cases were approved in July 2007 and the dates had never moved into 2007 until very recently.

Spec,
I agree 2006 was current few months before the first inventory was out.

In any event adding EB3IC inventory till July 2007 to EB2IC and assuming minimal denials/rejections at 140, then 485 data is only representing 85% of the EBIC labor certifications?

EBIC(2+3) 485 ~= 21,000( Jan 2007 - Jul 2007)
PERM certifications~= 11,500

[leo07]

lol. your PD is in 2008, you must hope that Q meant 2011

Thanks Q and Leo!

I hope Q meant 2012

[kd2008]

I don't think the calculation for 2006 is valid, since the Inventory for 2006 cases never represented the full picture.

PDs in 2006 were Current both in July 2007 and July-September 2008. By the time the Inventory was first published in 2009, numbers had already been approved and it is impossible to know the original starting number. China had reached January 2006 in June 2007 and Sep-Nov 2007.

It is unlikely that many (if any) 2007 cases were approved in July 2007, as all were new applications and the dates had never moved into 2007 until the July VB. All Inventories published should therefore represent the total number of cases filed to date.

I see. Thanks for the explanation. So I am going to stick with my 1.5 multiplier.

[cbpds1]

leo.....I think Q meant worst case is 2012 as its likely that the buffer date will move till Apr 2008, hence Tom may have to wait for 1 more year

lol. your PD is in 2008, you must hope that Q meant 2011

[qblogfan]

I am a big fan of this blog. I have followed this blog for several weeks. I really like the data analysis done by you guys. This blog contains so much useful information. Now I just want to publish my first post to thank you guys for the great work!

[Spectator]

Hi Spec

I have a doubt regarding 2006 PDs approved before 2009 inventory. Because, considerable numbers of 2005 PD were approved in 2010, how can a later PD gets approved even before 2005 PDs i.e., before 2009 inventory numbers .

That is why I said it is impossible to know the original number. It would come down to the luck of the draw on how fast the PERM was approved and whether the case was adjudicated when the window was actually open.

[qblogfan]

My personal opinion is that you can submit 485 in this summer or next summer. It depends on how many new applications DOS wants to admit in this summer. I estimate there are around 35k C&I EB2 new demand before June 2008. If DOS wants to prepare 35k for next year's spillover, you will have some chance to submit 485. I think the worst case is that you can submit in the next summer. I am confident we will have at least 15-20k spillover next year despite of the slow processing speed of EB1 and EB2 ROW. I am not a guru. Just my personal opinion.

[Spectator]

Spec,
I agree 2006 was current few months before the first inventory was out.

In any event adding EB3IC inventory till July 2007 to EB2IC and assuming minimal denials/rejections at 140, then 485 data is only representing 85% of the EBIC labor certifications?

EBIC(2+3) 485 ~= 21,000( Jan 2007 - Jul 2007)
PERM certifications~= 11,500

That assumes that the Inventory is the whole universe.

There are CP cases in addition (15% for India and 30-50% for China in EB3) and an unknown number of cases still awaiting interview at LO.

The Inventory almost certainly under represents the true numbers, especially for EB3.

[qblogfan]

What I did was I calculated the numbers from 06/2006 to 07/2007. VB never crossed 06/2006 after 2007.