EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

[suninphx]

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

While all this looks good for this year - its going to be not so good year for SOFAD next year. But on lighter note people one needs to remember that people with Jan - Jul 07 PD are lot of luckiest people. . So no wonder everything going right with those PDs. Good luck guys.

[mvinayam]

Hi All,

Need some suggestion.

We have a pending I-485 (EB3 03/2006) filied July 2007 as myself as primary & my husband as dependent. My husband also has his own approved I-140 (EB2 06/20/2007) . Based on the current Visa Movements I guess we have some chances of being current by end of this fiscal year.

The question I have is if my husbands date become current is there any possibility for us to interfile the I-140 between spouse??? (Is it a good option)

The lawyers are not ready to file secondary I-485 due to which we missed the concurrent filing during July 2007 . If interfiling is not an option then should we withdraw the existing I-485 & file a new one. If we do so how long it will take for us to get the GC. I am just concerned that if it retrogress then once again the waiting time will a long one.

Please advice.

Thanks,
mvinayam

[qesehmk]

I do not know about interfiling. However, I am certain that even if the dates retrogress they won't go prior to May 2007 for EB2I. You will certainly get your GC in 2012 cycle if your husband can file a 485.

Hi All,

Need some suggestion.

We have a pending I-485 (EB3 03/2006) filied July 2007 as myself as primary & my husband as dependent. My husband also has his own approved I-140 (EB2 06/20/2007) . Based on the current Visa Movements I guess we have some chances of being current by end of this fiscal year.

The question I have is if my husbands date become current is there any possibility for us to interfile the I-140 between spouse??? (Is it a good option)

The lawyers are not ready to file secondary I-485 due to which we missed the concurrent filing during July 2007 . If interfiling is not an option then should we withdraw the existing I-485 & file a new one. If we do so how long it will take for us to get the GC. I am just concerned that if it retrogress then once again the waiting time will a long one.

Please advice.

Thanks,
mvinayam

[cotes_ashish]

Hi Guys,
Any chance that 17May 07 will be reached by the end of this quarter.

[skpanda]

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

[bieber]

Q, Spec

howmuch additional spillover you are estimating due to delay in processing times? just trying to understand it's impact on next year sofad

[Spectator]

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3

skpanda,

No question is stupid. It's actually a very good question.

It is possible, but I think it less likely for EB2-IC cases.

There are about 1.5k EB2-IC cases on the USCIS Inventory up to the end of 2005 that do not appear in the Demand data. Possibly, they won't get approved, since they appear to be "difficult" cases. On the other hand, there are about 1k more EB2-I cases for 2006 on the USCIS inventory than in the Demand data. They may be new applications from dependents (or PWMB) and stand a better chance of being approved.

The Demand Data for 2007 cases is 15,325 versus the USCIS Inventory number of 15,468. That tends to suggest that DOS are aware of all the cases, which wouldn't be the case if they hadn't already been pre-adjudicated.

It might end up that the factors just cancel each other out. I don't know the answer.

[mvinayam]

Thanks for the update. Hoping to see some good results.

Thanks,
mvinayam

[qesehmk]

agree w spec. there are alwasy nuances like those 1.5K cases. So its always a good thing to stay at macro factors and then try to predict.

Another thing is that we are considering that there won't be any denials which is a bit conservative. In reality there will be some denials (may be 2%) but we haven't factored that in.


Thirdly there are always multiple way to predict. What specifically I am doing is .. following two separate ways to predict.
1. Fundamental model depicted at the head of this thread.
2. Trackitt based model in "FACTS and DATA" section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ED-PROJECTIONS

Bieber, I generally try to predict full year. As it is there are so many unknowns in full year prediction. When one tries to figure how much SOFAD is already realized vs what's to come, it increases the probability of error. Sorry I can't answer your question. But Teddy usually does split data this way. Teddy can u pls help Bieber?

skpanda,

No question is stupid. It's actually a very good question.

It is possible, but I think it less likely for EB2-IC cases.

There are about 1.5k EB2-IC cases on the USCIS Inventory up to the end of 2005 that do not appear in the Demand data. Possibly, they won't get approved, since they appear to be "difficult" cases. On the other hand, there are about 1k more EB2-I cases for 2006 on the USCIS inventory than in the Demand data. They may be new applications from dependents (or PWMB) and stand a better chance of being approved.

The Demand Data for 2007 cases is 15,325 versus the USCIS Inventory number of 15,468. That tends to suggest that DOS are aware of all the cases, which wouldn't be the case if they hadn't already been pre-adjudicated.

It might end up that the factors just cancel each other out. I don't know the answer.

[kd2008]

I was thinking about what may happen next year. Going forward, there will be newly filed I-485 cases for EB2 I&C in a sizable volume compared to previous year. This is going to slow down processing time of EB2ROW cases even though they are current. As such our prediction models need to change. Because USCIS processes applications in the order they were received, EB2ROWs that file after the EB2 I&C intake will see markedly longer processing times. Our models will need to account for this. May be this means good news for EB2I&C. It would be illustrative to check what the Eb2ROW processing times were after the July 2007 fiasco.

[coolguy]

Hello Gurus, My PD is Aug-08. Can someone tell me when can I expect to be greened ?

[bieber]

Bieber, I generally try to predict full year. As it is there are so many unknowns in full year prediction. When one tries to figure how much SOFAD is already realized vs what's to come, it increases the probability of error. Sorry I can't answer your question. But Teddy usually does split data this way. Teddy can u pls help Bieber?

Q, thanks, that's ok. Just wondered if fy2011 using 'supposedly' fy2012 spill over.
Do you agree, as long as we don't see huge surge in EB1 demand next year should be atleast better than fy2010

[leo07]

Folks,

Let us say DOS moves the dates to August 1 2007 and brings the EB2 inventory to 35K and there are 35K visas available.
Obviously, CIS cannot go through all these 35k in 2 months.

In this scenario:
a. Would CIS be able to allot a visa to each of these applications first and then process the applications at their own speed? ( since denial rate is 2%, max wastage would be 2% in this case.)
b. Would CIS allot visas at random among all documentarily qualified folks across the EB board.?
c. What would happen to the 35K EB2 inventory built in the case of (b)--they would sit and wait for Visa number for another year?

I know more or less the answer is (b) & (c), but want all your opinions and thoughts

[Spectator]

I was thinking about what may happen next year. Going forward, there will be newly filed I-485 cases for EB2 I&C in a sizable volume compared to previous year. This is going to slow down processing time of EB2ROW cases even though they are current. As such our prediction models need to change. Because USCIS processes applications in the order they were received, EB2ROWs that file after the EB2 I&C intake will see markedly longer processing times. Our models will need to account for this. May be this means good news for EB2I&C. It would be illustrative to check what the Eb2ROW processing times were after the July 2007 fiasco.

Or USCIS can decide to priorize their resources on applications that are Current or just about to become Current. Any excess capacity can be used to pre-adjudicate the retrogressed cases. That's what appeared to happen post 2007.

Retrogression will mean that most of the EB2-IC cases won't be Current. That gives USCIS a possible 9 months to work through them before the window opens again in July 2012, if the Cut Off Dates are moved forward in September 2011.

Who knows?

I agree, even pushing forward enough to collect the next year's applications is going to cause logistical problems for USCIS. Currently, their Production rate is not high enough to cope with the influx.

[th5000th]

Q, Can you ask your source to check with VO on the cutoff dates for August and September? Thanks a lot.

Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

[imechanix]

Spec,

Estimation of PWMB EB2IC per month from Mar07-July07:

I used your approved PERM-IC data & EB2IC-I485 Inventory to get an estimation of PWMB per month from March 2007 - July2007. The formula I used is PWMB = PERM,IC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)-EB2IC,485.
I calculated EB2:EB3 Ratio for every month (but average was around 0.66) and dependent factor used was 2.25. The total PWMB from March'07-July'07 I got was 7,201 with individual months distribution given in the table. Does this makes sense?



---------------EB2 I-485 Applied----------------PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)---------------------PWMB EB2 Prim & Dep
----------------India+China--------------------------------------India+China-------------------------------------India+China
Mar 07-------------2047----------------------------------------------3052-------------------------------------1005
Apr 07-------------2022-----------------------------------------------3632-------------------------------------1610
May 07------------1588----------------------------------------------3182-------------------------------------1594
Jun 07-------------1819----------------------------------------------4010--------------------------------------2191
Jul 07--------------3319---------------------------------------------4119---------------------------------------800
Total---------------10795--------------------------------------------17996------------------------------------7201

Thanks for your your help.

[veni001]

Spec,

Estimation of PWMB EB2IC per month from Mar07-July07:

I used your approved PERM-IC data & EB2IC-I485 Inventory to get an estimation of PWMB per month from March 2007 - July2007. The formula I used is PWMB = PERM,IC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)-EB2IC,485.
I calculated EB2:EB3 Ratio for every month (but average was around 0.66) and dependent factor used was 2.25. The total PWMB from March'07-July'07 I got was 7,201 with individual months distribution given in the table. Does this makes sense?



---------------EB2 I-485 Applied----------------PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)---------------------PWMB EB2 Prim & Dep
----------------India+China--------------------------------------India+China-------------------------------------India+China
Mar 07-------------2047----------------------------------------------3052-------------------------------------1005
Apr 07-------------2022-----------------------------------------------3632-------------------------------------1610
May 07------------1588----------------------------------------------3182-------------------------------------1594
Jun 07-------------1819----------------------------------------------4010--------------------------------------2191
Jul 07--------------3319---------------------------------------------4119---------------------------------------800
Total---------------10795--------------------------------------------17996------------------------------------7201

Thanks for your your help.

imechanix,
You can use 2007 PWMB PERM Table for I+C to calculate 485 demand until July 2007.

[veni001]

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3

skpanda,
It could be, Just looking at demand data published since October 2010, show max demand of 23k only for EB2I even though 24.2k is known from OCT2010 inventory update. Similarly 11.3k for EB2C or EB2IC max as 34.2k out of 36.7k known demand!

[pch053]

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.


The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

Q,
This might be a very basic question. If the EB2ROW approvals are on the higher side (~50%) then EB2-I/C approvals will be in and around June'07 and USCIS already has pending applications to approve for that. On the other hand, if the EB2-ROW approval is on the lower side (~37%), then EB2I/C approvals will go past Aug'07. Now, if it goes beyond Aug'07, then the new applications (along with the PWMB cases from Jan - July'07) are unlikely to be approved this year. So, I assume in that case there might be remaining visas with not enough EB2 I/C applications to approve and the spillovers will go to EB3-ROW category. I guess this situation can happen in future years too if USCIS doesn't have enough I485 applications in pipeline, which might me one reason for advancing and then retrogressing the PDs. Also, for this year, is there a possibility that PWMB cases that are filed during early July'11 might get approved as there will be ~3 months time for approval prior to Sep 30.

Thanks!

[vishnu]

It's because they won't have enough pre-adj applications in the pipleline - they may want to push dates forward to build at least a year's inventory and retrogress - just my humble opinion of course

[veni001]

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

Q,
Just looking at I-526 approvals from Oct 2010 - Mar2011 (about 700 approvals) and EB5-485 ratio, i agree that EB2I&C may not be able to get 8K from EB5 this year.

Also i agree with #1 &#2 but for #3, even though USCIS website showing 485 processing 2010 cases, we see 2011(receipt) approvals (EB1&EB2ROW) on Trackitt!

[qesehmk]

Veni, we probably would. But consider this fact.

Per trackitt data, 576 cases were filed in EB1 and EB2ROW in this FY. Of which 322 are still pending.

That is 56% pending.

Of the ones approved 254, 126 i.e. 50% are post Dec 2010. So yes there are cases frm 2011 FY that are approved and there will be such cases. But the overwhelming statistics is that 56% of 2011 demand in EB1 and EB2 ROW will not be processed this year (assuming that trend holds.) We will see!

Also i agree with #1 &#2 but for #3, even though USCIS website showing 485 processing 2010 cases, we see 2011(receipt) approvals (EB1&EB2ROW) on Trackitt!

[victorian]

have forwarded AC21 docs to USCIS and have also received a confirmation saying that the AC21 docs have been appended to my I 485 application, etc.

Hi pch -
I recently filed an AC-21 notice as well and was under the impresssion that USCIS does not provide any indication that this has been accepted. Would you mind elaborating on the form of confirmation that you received?
Apologies if this is thread hijacking.

[pch053]

Hi pch -
I recently filed an AC-21 notice as well and was under the impresssion that USCIS does not provide any indication that this has been accepted. Would you mind elaborating on the form of confirmation that you received?
Apologies if this is thread hijacking.

I think there is no guarantee that USCIS will send an acknowledgment after receiving AC21 docs. In fact, there are many instances where the AC21 docs don't even reach one's I485 file. Its somewhat random on whether one will received an acknowledgment from USCIS after submitting the AC21 docs and this shouldn't have any effect on the pending I485 application. If Q and others suggest, I can open another thread and type the contents of the letter (or just type the contents of the letter in this thread itself); its a simple letter saying they received the AC21 related docs and appended it to my pending I485 application.