EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

sidd21

People are talking about retogression after considering a big move in next 2-4 months, I think Mar2007 is very safe and the dates won't go back there ever again. In other words, you don't have to worry about date movement

[shaumack]

The law which appears to be used for spillover says the following:

(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-

(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.

Great post Spec. But sometime I feel that law can be interpretated as DOS wants and as it will be lobbied. I can very well argue with respect to above statement that this rule could be interpretated same throughout across the board not only for Fall Across. As per definition of "qualified immigrants", Spillover should first go to EB2-ROW then EB3-ROW (as they still have not reached 7% limit) and then be allocated to oversubscribed countries again on basis of EB1-retrogressed to EB2-retrogressed to EB3-retrogressed.

[neospeed]

Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

Thanks Q for your analysis. So spillover left is around: 37636 - 24000 = 13636 ?. I think the remaining s 13k should be able to cover all the eb2 pre adjudicated cases (11k until august) from June inventory. The remaining 2k going to cover any porting cases. PWMB have very little time to get processed this year, so they will get rollover to next fiscal year.

[Spectator]

Great post Spec. But sometime I feel that law can be interpretated as DOS wants and as it will be lobbied. I can very well argue with respect to above statement that this rule could be interpretated same throughout across the board not only for Fall Across. As per definition of "qualified immigrants", Spillover should first go to EB2-ROW then EB3-ROW (as they still have not reached 7% limit) and then be allocated to oversubscribed countries again on basis of EB1-retrogressed to EB2-retrogressed to EB3-retrogressed.

shaumack,

I agree with your general point.

I agree that there are different interpretations to these laws.

However, that is not how DOS currently interpret it. In the May VB notes, Charles Oppenheim stated that the FD from EB1 was being dealt with under INA 202 (a)(5)(A).

My description is about how it is currently operating.

[bhayzone]

I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?

[leo07]

They let the folks prior to PD:July 1st 2007 file for 485 until August 17th 2007.

[Spectator]

I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?

My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August the end of July are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.

Edit :- Further discussion has established that only those who were Current in the original July 2007 VB were eligible to file up to August 17, 2007. Therefore, there should be no PWMB beyond July 31, 2007.

Please ignore comments in RED, although I have left them in to show the original post and the mistakes it contained.

[TeddyKoochu]

They let the folks prior to PD:July 1st 2007 file for 485 until August 17th 2007.

My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.

I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?

Spec I completely agree with what you are saying, also I believe that the agencies may try to get every possible pre-adjudicated case and the dates would likely advance to 15th Aug 2007. Hopefully we should be able to get over this term PWMB for good after this season . Worst case with my late Jul PD I will be one of the last PWMB torchbearers

[sidd21]

sidd21

People are talking about retogression after considering a big move in next 2-4 months, I think Mar2007 is very safe and the dates won't go back there ever again. In other words, you don't have to worry about date movement

Thank you all for the replies

[bieber]

Spec

Thanks for the detailed monthly perm breakdown list, I'm not sure if EB1C category need to apply for labor, if yes then what criteria you used to exclude them in the numbers?

[Spectator]

Spec

Thanks for the detailed monthly perm breakdown list, I'm not sure if EB1C category need to apply for labor, if yes then what criteria you used to exclude them in the numbers?

EB1 and EB2-NIW have no need of LC, so the PERM data only includes EB2 and EB3 cases.

[leo07]

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)

My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.

[ifaith]

Teddy since you are also PWMB and everyone agrees that PMWB's will not be able to get the visa numbers this year as it takes atleast 3 months for processing and all.
What about EAD, how much time would that take to come?

Spec I completely agree with what you are saying, also I believe that the agencies may try to get every possible pre-adjudicated case and the dates would likely advance to 15th Aug 2007. Hopefully we should be able to get over this term PWMB for good after this season . Worst case with my late Jul PD I will be one of the last PWMB torchbearers

[bhayzone]

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)

USCIS memo on this states that "it will accept employment-based applications to adjust status (Form I-
485) filed by aliens whose priority dates are current under the July Visa Bulletin, No. 107."

And I don't understand if it means everyone with a July PD, or everyone with a PD when the July bulletin was released (that would include only PDs till June 2007)


http://www.murthy.com/uscis_update.pdf

"U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced that,
beginning immediately, it will accept employment-based applications to adjust status (Form I-
485) filed by aliens whose priority dates are current under the July Visa Bulletin, No. 107.
USCIS will accept applications filed not later than August 17, 2007."

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy since you are also PWMB and everyone agrees that PMWB's will not be able to get the visa numbers this year as it takes atleast 3 months for processing and all.
What about EAD, how much time would that take to come?

EAD / AP applications have a SLA of 90 days so you can rest assured that will come by. But for all PWMB's being able to file for 485 will itself be a great achievement by Sep 2011.Filing for AOS would keep us in status for 6 months automatically by section 245K so we can be out of the H1b extension loop if need be. I believe if that happens GC may also come by in 4-6 months whenever they can allocate sufficient numbers for these cases. This year one thing is clear that whenever they were able to assess that EB1 / EB2 ROW / EB5 demand is less spillover was applied so we can hope for GC sooner as well.

[Spectator]

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)

Leo,

I agree that sounds sensible and I would have done that, but how do you account for the entries in the USCIS Inventory for EB2-IC and all Countries in EB3 with PDs in August 2007 ?

Edit:- I see the memo makes it pretty clear that only people who were Current under the original July VB were allowed to file.

Maybe, since it was Current, rather than specific Cut Off Date, they allowed PDs beyond July 31st. Even I don't think that sounds a great explanation, but it is the only one I can think of. It could be the USCIS Inventory still has errors, but they should have been eliminated by now (well at least obvious ones like that).

[chikitsak]

Right. and @ Vishnu: "Technically", they would (should) have to make EB2I/C current prior to moving SOFAD to EB3. PWMB are likely looking at May- July 2012 before they can get approved. That is still better than it was looking 3 months ago. We have to remember that all this backlog that is causing the extra SOFAD (EB2 ROW) this year is going to catch up with us next year.

[leo07]

Some people(lawyers) filed for 485 anyways during those days, just because they had nothing to lose. Bigger employers/attorneys where obviously against that.

I think some ( tiny number of those ) got lucky and some could be upgrades. Other than that I can't think any other reasons

[Spectator]

Thanks Leo.

Trackitt doesn't show any very reliable August 2007 PD cases.

I appreciate you bringing your knowledge to the discussion and to bhayzone for digging up the memo. I'm leaning towards the USCIS Inventory being in error.

I learn something new every day.

[bhayzone]

For EB2-I, I am trying to come up with a rough approximate count of visa numbers that it would require to clear the current inventory and PWMB (and dependents). Do the calculations below make sense? I believe you guys must have already crunched the numbers and discussed it before and I apologize if I am asking you to work all this again, but I just wanted to validate if my numbers are sensible or way out of the generally accepted numbers here.

For EB2-I
7k - current inventory
8k * 2.5 = 20k - PWMB+dependents
Total: 27k (visa numbers required to clear inventory + PWMB and dependents).

[qesehmk]

bhayzone, you should also include china in it since IC move together. Secondly need to add portings.

PWMBs won't matter this year given there is much less time available to adjudicate those. And dependents are covered in inventory.

That way the total number to cover the inventory is 35.6K + portings + CP =42K max.


Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Grand Total
January 3 6 27 26 18 125 2,171 2,376
February - 4 4 7 71 109 2,025 2,220
March 1 4 8 33 217 171 2,037 2,471
April 3 5 22 17 7 116 1,994 2,164
May 1 2 10 24 10 1,503 1,647 3,197
June 3 2 13 20 24 2,362 1,881 4,305
July 5 4 7 30 46 2,114 3,272 5,478
August - 2 11 24 52 2,338 496 2,923
September - 35 9 34 117 2,447 - 2,642
October 1 17 15 15 77 2,448 - 2,573
November 3 1 5 25 97 2,364 - 2,495
December - 4 16 37 120 2,633 - 2,810
Grand Total 20 86 147 292 856 18,730 15,523 35,654

For EB2-I, I am trying to come up with a rough approximate count of visa numbers that it would require to clear the current inventory and PWMB (and dependents). Do the calculations below make sense? I believe you guys must have already crunched the numbers and discussed it before and I apologize if I am asking you to work all this again, but I just wanted to validate if my numbers are sensible or way out of the generally accepted numbers here.

For EB2-I
7k - current inventory
8k * 2.5 = 20k - PWMB+dependents
Total: 27k (visa numbers required to clear inventory + PWMB and dependents).

[Spectator]

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB5 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

[soggadu]

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

So does this mean we have enough numbers to clear cases till aug 01 07?? If yes can we hope the numbers to move forward??

[pch053]

I think among the above spillover numbers, the biggest uncertainty is EB1 spillovers, right? For EB2, the spillover numbers estimated are of similar order (slightly higher) as last year and EB5 is roughly assumed to be same as 2010. So, I think the way it stands is if there are 37K spillovers, then almost all EB2-I/C pending cases up to mid Aug'07 will be approved. If the spillover numbers fall short, then EB2-I/C approval dates will be anywhere between May'07 - Aug'07, depending on the # of spillovers. Is this a reasonable estimate at this point of time?

[vishnu]

Gurus - can you please help me understand something. The spillover from Eb1 (18k) + eb2 row (8k) + eb5 (8k) + eb2 ic (6k) = 40k will cover the backlog till July 2007 + porting + maybe some pwmb. Perhaps the numbers are off by a couple of thousand, in which case it covers the backlog till June 2007 etc. Now, gurus have pointed out that processing times are quite long, so even some Eb1 visas that would be attached to FY 2011 applications may not be done. So are those numbers that may spill over IN ADDITION to the numbers I mentioned above??