pch053,Originally Posted by pch053
They may not or they may, assuming that the processing times improve in the next couple of months. But the key for SOFAD applied to EB2I&C in AUG/SEPT 2011 will be based on how many of the 20k (EB1+EB2ROWMP) are documentarily qualified to assign a VISA number by September 20011!
Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers; there is a possibility of another 12K SOFAD at maximum, but most likely 8K to happen in the coming 2 bulletins. The 12K maximum can bring the preadjudicated numbers very close to exhaustion with PWMB cases providing the buffer. The chart below is purely out of my gut feeling as Q says there is more guesswork in this than logic. The agencies may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible as late as a few months back but has happened.
01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%
I believe that most of the movement will be seen in the Aug bulletin itself with the September bulletin being more of finishing touches it may just have the excess numbers which they had buffered for EB2 ROW / EB1 just in case so that any of the cases from these categories does not miss approval. My guess is that the date in the Aug bulletin will be between 15th May to 01-Jun 2007.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 06-12-2011 at 12:57 PM.
Teddy,
Similar to what i said before JULY 2011 bulliten, this is what i think could happen in the next couple of months.
1. USCIS may apply all SOFAD left for FY 2011 in August 2011 itself!
Here is my reason why: No one (EB1&EB2ROW-M-P&EB4-5) can expect GC in two months after filing, so thematically EB1&EB2ROW-M-P&EB4-5 demand left for FY2011 is how many of the ~20K are documentarily qualified by AUG 2011.
2. Also they can avoid any visa wastage by doing this in AUG VB itself.
3. This will give them option of opening gates(up to?) for new inventory in Sept 2011, if they choose to.
Last edited by veni001; 06-12-2011 at 01:17 PM.
Teddy,
DOS must have ~4180 visas in pocket to move to June 1st and 5808 visas to move upto July 1st.( give or take 15%). You think there will not be another 6k numbers available come August bulletin?( with 0.1 probability that is )
I like your over-all probabilities btw
Best!
Last edited by leo07; 06-12-2011 at 09:42 PM.
Header Updated.
The key messages are:
Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.
As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.
Please check header for details.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q - I agree that SOFAD will be quite large but why would they provide SOFAD to EB3 rather than moving EB2 dates even further.
@ Vishnu, I agree with Q. Since the PWMB will not be able to get adjudicated in the next 3 months, rather than waste the Visa numbers , they may go to EB3.
But they could also move the dates for EB2 to 2009 or 2010 and attach visa numbers to consular applications too?
I agree that there almost seems to be a conspiracy between DOS and USCIS to slow down processing of Categories that are Current to allow the current backlog in EB2-IC to be cleared and this is likely to happen.
In the header, whilst I agree the approval numbers for EB1 and EB2-MP look possible, the figure for EB2-ROW looks low. It shows approvals of 8,859 + 8,091 = 16,950. EB2-ROW appears to have already reached 16.4k and had reached 100% of the FY2010 level by the end of May. Whilst the approval rate for EB2-ROW may slow in the remaining months, it looks like it will reach at least 20k, if not higher.
I think it is increasingly likely that DOS will push EB2-IC in to Mid/Late 2008 in September, then retrogress it in October. This would allow further use of CP visas, as long as NVC set the interview dates quickly and request the visas from DOS before the FY ends.
I don't believe there will be many, if any spare visas beyond those needed for EB2 and that spillover to EB3 is unlikely, though not impossible.
Even if any spare visas fall to EB3, they will be consumed by EB3-ROW, not EB3-I. As EB3-I appears to have virtually used its allocation for FY2011, I don't expect it to move much from the date set in the July VB.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
That should be wonderful news Q for people who missed 2007 bonanza to get EAD. And thanks Veni and Spec for updated data and enlighting us on the pending numbers fy2007. It definetly make sense for DOS to move dates atleast till mid2008 or end 2008 to accomodate new applications and there by avoiding processing delays, getting estimation of the perms.
Looking at the processing time and uscis intention to clear max. eb2I/C, next year might not see more than 18k spill over(hope fully my words are wrong).
But i was wondering if any PWMB will get green cards, I would be glad if some them get their green cards and get out of our way
vishnu, CP backlog for EB2I is not high enough. On the other hand they can't move dates only for CP, so moving dates to 2009/2010 - while not impossible at all - will depend on how much their appetite is to build future pipeline. I am an advocate of repeating the 2007 July scenario i.e. make it "C" for a couple of months in Oct/Nov and then fall back.
Spec, I agree that ROW may yield less. My 37% is a bit aggressive. If you look at trackitt ROW is running at less than 50% approval for applications filed in 2011. However, even if you assume 50% and calculate, it yields very solid 34K total sofad enough to clear all the way through since PWMBs will not hit demand this year and portings have stayed low. Its as if everything that can go right for EB2I is going right at this time!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I think it is worth explaining why I believe that spare visa that fall to EB3 will go to EB3-ROW first. I know that some people do not share this view. It may be a subject that we agree to disagree on.
The law setting out the fact that a country may not exceed 7% is given under INA 202 (a)(2):
The law which appears to be used for spillover says the following:INA: ACT 202 - NUMERICAL LIMITATION TO ANY SINGLE FOREIGN STATE
(a) Per Country Level. -
(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants. - Subject to paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.
There is an argument that INA 202 (A)(5) quoted above only deals with Fall Across.(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-
(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.
In that case INA 202 (a)(3) contains the same language.
Either way, the argument below is valid.(3) Exception if additional visas available. - If because of the application of paragraph (2) with respect to one or more foreign states or dependent areas, the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter.
In EB2, since Mexico, Philippines and ROW are all Current and they have no further demand, the spare visas are allocated to EB2-IC, since there are no "qualified immigrants" who may otherwise be issued such visas.
For EB3, in contrast, Countries within EB3-ROW represent "qualified immigrants", since they have demand and they have not yet reached their own 7% limits.
Spare visas cannot be allocated to EB3-I (who have reached their 7% limit) until either there is no further demand from EB3-ROW or every Country within EB3-ROW has reached its own 7% limit.
As much as EB3-I is constrained by the 7% limit, EB3-ROW is constrained by the overall 28.6% limit of visas available to EB3.
To put this into context, in FY2010, EB3-I received 3,036 visas. Within EB3-ROW, excluding South Korea, only 5 Countries were able to receive even 1,000 visas.
Worse for EB3-I, no Countries in ROW use their full allocations in EB1/2 & EB4/5 and the 7% limit is calculated on the overall total.
For simplicity, taking 9,800 as the the 7% limit for EB, then Pakistan, who used the most EB3 visas at 1,571 only used 3,058 visas in EB overall. They could use an additional 6,742 spillover visas to reach 9,800.
Excluding South Korea, of ROW Countries, Canada used the most overall EB visas at 5,893, so even they would be able to use an additional 3,907 visas to reach the overall 7% limit.
Based on last year, even EB3-P would be able to consume more visas - they share the same Cut Off Date as ROW and are constrained by it from receiving more visas.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Q - one more question on this issue. Lets assume they make it C and get in tons more 485s. But they still won't be able to utilize the visa numbers though. So is there any point? I get now why you think there is chance for spillover to EB3 - at least its pre-adjuticated and hence the visa #s can be attached to the 485s.
With the current pace of I-485 processing they don't even looked upon.
So PWMB will not able to make it this FY.
Spec As usual nice explanation. Thank you.
I really want to read INA to get some knowledge - is there any website online to read that :-)
Spec yours is a great post. I see your point about 7% limit. I am not sure if it applies to FD though. So will have to chew on it for a while. But I would recommend this post should be put under FAQs or somewhere where people have easy access to it. Its very fine insight into visa allocation.
Vishnu, the point of massive date movement will be to take in massive # of applications in. Now they can't process most of those applications anyway. Whether USCIS wants to take in massive apps in ... we will see
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Is people observed or not, all people who are current in July VB. if miss July 1 have to wait 3 more days coz of long weekend and
Hope IOs will come out of their holiday mood quick to work on our applications :-((
I usually go to this USCIS page, where you can go to both the INA and 8CFR http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD
The INA is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...90aRCRD&CH=act
8CFR is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0aRCRD&CH=8cfr
Don't you just love those user friendly urls!
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you very much for info.
Q,
I'll do that if you wish.
Since it is a subject that people do disagree on (often passionately I've seen on other fora) I will reproduce it in FAQ to start with, including an appropriate disclaimer.
I have never found any law or regulation that says that it does not apply to FD and I do not see how it cannot, especially under (a)(3).
In fact, if I were EB3-ROW, I would be beyond angry if it did not operate as I have outlined, especially as they already lose so many visas in various ways.
At the moment, having studied the relevant sections of the INA, it is a view I hold with great conviction, but it can only be considered interpretation, since we have no real life application of the law to date.
If and When it is proved either way by DOS actions, It might become appropriate to move it to FACTS & DATA.
I hope you consider that an appropriate course of action.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Friends... I do not want to digress from the purpose of this thread but bring to your attention to an initiative that may help EB2 folks. Please vote and let us know your thoughts.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...p-Action-Items
PS: I posted this link here since it appears that most people like me have bookmarked the EB2 Predictions thread.
Thank you all for your replies..
Gosh.. just when i started to relax on the thought of me beingcurrent in AUG 2011... people have started talking about retrogression after september 2011...As always , this brings in a new doubts in my mind....
My PD is MARCH 9 2007, EB2_i, Let us say on AUG 1, when i become current, i send in all papers/applications(I-485,I-765,I-131)
.
How much time will it take to get a GC approximately..( FP ,Name check needs to be done)
What do you gurus expect the realistic date would be if it retrogress?
If the dates retrogress to say MARCH 1 2007, what will happen to my file? will i have to wait again till the date moves beyon MARCH 9 2007
All, Please bare with my questions, as it has been a frustarting four years of missing the boat in july 2007...
Knowing that CIS is still processing I-485s (employment-based) from 2010, it will take about an year to get to process your case.
don't keep an iota of doubt in your mind ......... even if the dates retrogress they will be in later part of 2007.....you will get greened .
From what i have seen/heard from friends, it might take atleast 3 months ( best case scenario) for FP, FBI etc, but i personally do not think dates to retrogress beyond March 9 2007 as many people will get cleared and as our gurus provided data, pwmb numbesr is not enough for dates to retrogress beyond March.
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