EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

No surprises in demand data. Eventually, ROW backlog due to retro may be less than 8k, IMO. Wouldn't worry much about where dates open at start. The trend for catagories other than EB2I is what we should be watching for in first 2 quarters.

[vrs7734]

So after october vb release, employment based visa can be renamed as "Diversity based visa- extended" as lower skilled workers will be preferred from rest of world than higher skilled workers from India and in some extent China. (eb3row pd>eb2 india)

[openaccount]

I think EB2ROW might get a COD in this VB mainly because of 2 reasons 1)CO may not allocate more than 2500-3000 visas in October. 2)Control applications flow(according to news last week)

[suninphx]

I think game is over for the first 2 quarters. Count no more than 1800 visas. EB2-I probably won't even cross 2007 assuming porting continues to be built at normal levels. We can only wait for the inventory reports now to understand the anticipated spillover starting April.

I am not disagreeing with what you stated. My point is we may not draw conclusions for whole year based on where it opens at start of next FY. And as far as movement of EB2I goes, it's anyone's guess. I don't see any value wasting time on predicting what agencies will do.

[GhostWriter]

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. (Does not account for porting, that could change the numbers below especially for 2007).

EB2-I
2007 - 85% (DD-4150, Inv-4904)
2008 - 96% (DD-14500, Inv-15136)
2009 - 81% (DD-10900, Inv-13429)
2010 - 63% (DD-3100, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 81% (DD-850, Inv-1046)
2008 - 95% (DD-3150, Inv-3311)
2009 - 79% (DD-2300, Inv-2913)
2010 - 59% (DD-575, Inv-975)

[suninphx]

Our annual fate will purely depend upon the relief EB1 will provide. At this time, I think 3-5K fall across from EB2-ROW and 3-5K fall down from EB4/5 can be expected.

So that's essentially 12-15k SOFAD. That's what my gut feel too. ( my gut feel figure is slightly more in fact 15-17k).

[nishant2200]

sportsfan, very astute observation. You surely if not already are, would be a great manager/director/exec

My personal opinion is if you are getting 20% more salary, and that you have a PD of 10/2008, you should use EAD and excercise AC21.

No need to look at the VB now. By adding a row for cumulative demand prior to January 1, 2007, there is a message that EB2-I will start in 2006. EB2-C may be in 2008.

Cumulative demand has seen a massive increase since the last month. I saw almost 2.7K prior to 2009. Some of those may be preadjudicated cases, but a large number seem to be porting cases.

This seems to a bad year for EB2-I. Spillover from EB2-ROW will decrease at least by 6K as they were shut down for 3 months and that demand will have to be absorbed this year. EB1 is our only hope at this point.

Wow! How things have changed since the beautiful days of start of this year!

At least we have the EAD. But what good is it really? I am contemplating myself. My H1B is about to run out this coming January. I have a couple of very strong leads that can become offers, but without sponsorship. Sure, I can use AC21 and all, but after having lived and died by the H1B, I am not ready to give it up and take the plunge with the EAD. My current job is going really well, and for a typical case like mine, *death by slow growth and diminished prospects* seems to be the order of the day. I will contemplate some more, and if the alternative pay is really too good (it's already 20% more, but still not enough to convince me to give up the H1B), I might take the *leap of faith*. I don't see my GC for at least 1 year though. That much is certain.

God bless us all.

[openaccount]

I think EB2ROW might get a COD in this VB mainly because of 2 reasons 1)CO may not allocate more than 2500-3000 visas in October. 2)Control applications flow(according to news last week)

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5770.html

EB2I-SEP04
EB2ROW--Jan12
EB2C--15JUL07

[gten20]

EOOWOW! That stinks!

[Kanmani]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5770.html

October 2012 bulletin is out

Eb2 I 01 Sept 2004

[qbloguser]

Looks to me a random pick by CO!

[gten20]

A WTF moment.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Who is there with PD 2004 in Eb2? Porting??

[Jonty Rhodes]

2004? Seriously? Looks like porting is taking its toll on EB2. The worst part is these guys don't even have any special comments down towards the end in the visa bulletin explaining why they decided to take the dates to 2004 for EB2I.

[gten20]

Life goes on... time to move to greener pastures.

[qesehmk]

Here is quick observation on demand data. Between 2008-2009 the demand seems to be 1500 / month for EB2I. Including china 1800-1900. AT its highest peak the demand was 2800-3000 few years back. Even if you assume 2400 as secular demand. That's 33% demand destruction due to recession. There is no reason why EB2ROW would be immune from recession. And mind you that includes all kinds of portings.

So assuming the same - it should mean - the total SOFAD we have seen between 2006-2011 (i.e. for prerecession demand) - we should expect to see at least same or slightly more 2012 onwards.

I can't say for certain what will happen in 6 months. But to think that EB2I is going to be stuck in 2006 or 2007 is too pessimistic. I am quite hopeful that actually 2008 will be cleared by Sep 2013. I can bet a dollar on that.

p.s. - What a truly WT_ moment. The date movement is completely at odds with the demand data published. There is hardly any demand before 1 Jan 2007. Why not 1 Jan 2007? why 2004? Then why does DOS bother to publish demand data at all?

Guys chill out ... go home. Don't think about it. This is nonsense.

[nishant2200]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5770.html

October 2012 bulletin is out

Eb2 I 01 Sept 2004

This is going to be open season for Porting.

The advantage of U (unavailable) is that it blocks the folks who already have EB3 485 filed due to July 2007 situation, from bleeding away the slow trickle, as well as at times, bursts of SO.

Otherwise such a congestion management ploy by DOS, is only going to have the Porting take away numbers, and the situation may always look grim to CO.

I really feel for my friends, two of them in same community, they live right here, they applied in November, a month before me, and still stuck with Sep 2007 PD in EB2.

On the other hand, the porting folks, they too have waited for eternity. It's all in all a very unfortunate situation.

[ggk189]

well not sure this is a spiral journey or a circular journey towards the central point which is attaining GC. I somehow convince myself every time that it is former, but CO will pull up some unknown and shows me that it is later.....

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.

[gc_soon]

Is CO setting COD to 2004 an effort to prevent porting? Is it now possible for EB3 (with a PD later than Sep 2004) to port now?

[Spectator]

Kudos to Teddy for predicting that DOS would only allocate the 252 monthly allocation. Using the DOS Demand data and prorating the pre 2007 number of 1,350 by the split between years in the USCIS May Inventory gives a 2004 date for EB2-I.

Similarly, it gives a July 2007 date for China.

[bookworm]

ignorance is bliss. I wish i could go back to being clueless about the immigration process and just being worried about exceling at my day job.

[justvisiting]

I want to point out EB2-WW only moved to Jan 1, 2012. I mentioned earlier why, there are not enough visas in the 1st month to justify a "C".

[Sandeep2011]

Dear friends,

I just looked at pending inventory data and Teddy's prediction about DOS allocating only 252 visas each month. If you add up all the pending inventory numbers upto September 2004, it comes to approximately 300 pending cases. Could it be just the case of CO managing the dates to follow a quota of 252/month?

The other observation that i have is that if you compare number of cases between May inventory and Demand data, difference is only about 150. I am assuming that this is mainly because of porting. If that is true, it is only 150 cases in last 4 months which is not that high? Am i interpreting these numbers correctly. There is also a bit of wishful thinking as my PD is Sept'07 EB2-I :-)

pending cases Cumulative Demand Data
1997 2 2
1998 4 6
1999 0 6
2000 5 11
2001 17 28
2002 35 63
2003 121 184
2004 242 426
2005 218 644
2006 552 1196 1350
2007 4904 6100 5500
2008 15136 21236 20000
2009 13429 34665 30900
2010 4912 39577 34000

[qesehmk]

Kudos to Teddy for predicting that DOS would only allocate the 252 monthly allocation. Using the DOS Demand data and prorating the pre 2007 number of 1,350 by the split between years in the USCIS May Inventory gives a 2004 date for EB2-I.

Similarly, it gives a July 2007 date for China.

Spec - While it is possible that CO can explain is that way, but then EB1 and EB2ROW as entire categories could easily be retrogressed years and years back. Just look at the pending demand for those categories. Besides this has never been done month to month in the past. So it just goes to show the arrogance and insensitiveness that CO has demonstrated here. I am really surprised.