I don't this theory. I don't think it will move to 2006.Originally Posted by tackle
I don't this theory. I don't think it will move to 2006.
Not the kind of news to open the new year with..
I know a lot of people think its the Indian IT companies are using up a lot of EB1-C numbers thereby driving up the demand.. I'm not sure if that is entirely accurate. Do we have the breakdown of EB1 numbers by country for FY-2012, yet?
Another factor that is said to kill the SO is the "upgrades". I can understand DoS not getting the numbers from USCIS and therefore they are unable to paint an accurate picture.. but AILA members can definitely forecast the numbers, since the majority of them actually process the upgrades.. They may not post it as an official statement, but if they are indeed keen on providing transparency to the process, they can throw some light about the actual prediction.
Sadly, the uncertainty about the numbers brings good business to them as it scares the crap out of folks in EB3 (and I don't blame them one bit) and makes them want to upgrade ASAP, if they are eligible..I don't mean to be a conspiracy theorist.. but I am not sure, if the situation is indeed as bad as it is made out to be..
It is sad, but it seems to be more than a mere theory now. Especially after numerous law offices are reporting the same as originating from AILA's and DoS/CO's mouth.
We can conclude one thing from what CO is doing(other than depending on USCIS for demand numbers) for past 1 year and previous years, he is just looking at previous year pattern and trying to use that as model for next year, it didn't work this year(Fy2012) and I am pretty sure it is not going to work next year(Fy2013).
In FY2011 when EB1 gave 15k SO he expected similar SO in FY2012 but USCIS gave a shocker.
Until USCIS/DOS keeps on playing these games without tracking I-140 s this situation will exist(if anything it is going to become worse).
EB2I:TSC, PD:05/28/2008, I-485 Applied:01/10/2012, 485-Receipt:01/16/2012, FP:02/17/2012, EAD/AP approval:03/08/2012, Received RFE:05/18/2012, RFE Replied:06/22/2012, RFE Status Update:07/12/2012, 485-Approval;?
ChampU,
I know.
The amount of moaning about EB1C and "upgrades" seems inversely proportional to the number of visas EB2-I are expected to get.
The pattern for EB1 approvals between FY2008 - FY2011 is shown below.
EB1 Statistics FY2008 to FY2011_1.jpg
Here's my take on it.
a) FY2011 was an aberration, probably caused by USCIS having to develop new procedures for EB1A and EB1B and retraining the adjudicators due to the Kazarian decision.
b) EB1C % of EB1 has been roughly similar, with the exception of FY2009.
c) EB1-I approvals have risen slightly over time. This may be due to either more EB1C or just more people applying in EB1A/B. It is impossible to tell with the data available.
d) The total increase for EB1-I is just a couple of thousand at most. Even if they were all EB1C, it is fairly insignificant in the total number.
The data is taken from the DOS Visa Statistics and the DHS Yearbook. Although total figures don't totally agree, they are extremely close.
I can't help with FY2012 figures.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Latest update from Murthy's web site. It appears to be 2006 for EB2-I for October 2012 and coming months.
Thanks, Spec. I didn't realize the EB1-I and EB1C-I numbers were so inconsequential. I'd be willing to (partially) retract my criticism once I see 2012 numbers - because unless I'm mistaken, the H1 and L1 rejection problems started after 2011, which is what might cause a rise in EB1C-I. I will only partially retract it since there are still enough cases of fraud in EB1C from Indian IT companies (and there would probably be more if their profitability and margins weren't dependent on indentured slave labor - there was a good Mint article a while back which showed the difference to an Indian IT company's margin due to hiring an overseas worker instead of a local). Though to be fair, there is probably fraud in EB1C from non-Indian companies too.
Last edited by abcx13; 09-06-2012 at 04:28 PM.
If the situation is so bad(or as usual like previous years) then why the heck the PD dates were advanced? It appears now that only due to HR-3012 specculation and no thing else.
It reminds me of an old riddle- a frog takes one step forward every morning and 2 steps backwards at night. After few days where it would reach??
When there was rapid advancement of the dates, those visa bulletins clearly stated that the movement is due to lack of demand at that point of time. I do believe that DoS did it without foresight, but then it is to be expected of the govt. agency. I am certain they will not learn the lesson even now. Now that they have petitions till 2010, when the cutoff reaches 2010, they will notice the empty can and redo the whole exercise and so on and so forth...
Last edited by chengisk; 09-06-2012 at 04:52 PM.
abcx13,
Maybe (I am not going to disagree), but there is "playing the system", fraud, whatever you want to call it in all Categories.
Someone outside EB2 might say there is Education and Experience Requirement inflation in the PERM system for EB2 positions, for example. I think everyone can think of something if they want to.
If there were unlimited resources, the amount could be reduced. The reality is that is not the case.
bvsamrat,
For the sole purpose of generating an Inventory that would last several years.
Had the July 2007 backlog not been cleared, you would not have seen the big advances.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Kanmani,
I've already said many times and long ago that there was a complete disconnect between what CO was saying in those earlier VBs and what we were seeing for applicant demand. Eventually, it became obvious that dates would have to be made Unavailable and that EB2-WW were also at risk.
It seems from the article that CO was banking on 13k from EB1. In post #8035, I made it clear what I think about that premise.
USCIS didn't seem capable of providing information that was remotely up to date. Judging by most information from USCIS, it was anything up to 2 months out of date. It certainly doesn't seem to have been coming from the Lockboxes. If it was, they must still be using the Pony Express.
I think CO is experienced enough, particularly with USCIS, to have known exactly what was going on.
It suited CO to believe USCIS, because it meant he could achieve his aim of collecting a very big Inventory for future years. He could then make USCIS the scapegoats for the disaster, which he effectively has.
CO should be ashamed for not retrogressing EB2-IC a couple of months earlier. Most of the worst aspects could have been avoided and he would still have had an Inventory that would last several years.
Even if demand had turned out slightly lower than expected, he would still have had plenty of time in the remainder of the FY to move the EB2-IC dates forward as required to use up the available visas. People with later PDs would still have had their I-485 filed, but late PD approvals would not have been possible. EB2-WW would not have been retrogressed and FY2012 & FY2013 would not be looking like disaster zones.
One of the differences now is that CO can look in the DOS system and actually see the number of pre-adjudicated cases. That's where he wants to be - completely divorced from any input or reliance on USCIS.
Sorry if I sound angry - it's because I am! The Cut Off Date movement was great and has allowed 10s of thousands to file I-485 who otherwise could not have done so. It would have taken so little to have come out smelling of roses - instead the people affected have been treated with a total lack of respect.
Rant over. Sorry you received both barrels. It feels better.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec, Thanks. I wish and long for this to happen if someone could direct Mr.Co to read your posts.
I had an immense anger when CO's predictions and assumptions turned out to be wrong and still continue to hate these speculations over upcoming bulletins.
Hi Spec/Qesehmk,
First of all - thanks for the diligence on analysis and predictions you guys make. Really appreciate that.
I know no one can predict, but what is your idea on when July 2007(EB2-I) would be current? Your guess on most likely case?
Would there be a lot of EB3 to EB2 India porters before PD July 2007 going forward? Or is it reasonable to assume most of them would have already ported?
gc_soon - under normal circumstances you should get your GC in first 3 months i.e. by Dec 2012. The only way you can't get it is if A) There is something wrong with you application. B) There is more than 3K porting going on in EB2I.
B is actually quite possible. So DEc 2012 should be your best case and Jun 2013 should be the worst case (assuming no quarterly spillover).
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks a lot Q for the response.
My case is actually CP(my wife's follow to join). I already have my GC and waiting for my wife's date(July 2007 - same as my date) to be current).
Regd porting, you say there would be a 3K porting in EB2I, but isn't most porting going to happen with PDs after July 2007 (since the porters with PD before 2007, would have ported last year itself when July 2007 was current?). I'm not sure, just asking.
I just read Murthy's newsflash which saddens me:
http://www.murthy.com/2012/09/06/new...te-prediction/
"the DOS predicts that the cutoff date will remain at a 2006 date for some time beyond the October 2012 Visa Bulletin." Not clear what "some time beyond October" means, but looks like the best case may not happen. I'm hoping at least for the worst case. Praying...
gc_soon - Unfortunately when it comes to porting - what matters is EB3 backlog not EB2 backlog. There is tons and tons of EB3 backlog prior to July 2007 (min 50K I would guess). So to find 3K in 50K per year is a very safe bet. However it is also true that portings shouldn't exceed 5K (which many of us consider upper limit).
So regardless the date will be current between 3-9 months and your wife could follow you.
I wonder if you can bring her here on B1 i.e. tourist visa and then adjust her status?
I also wonder if you can file her as FB2 rather than EB2. FB2 for India is already current.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks Spec. The porting numbers seems scary. Seems like I have to wait for spill over.
I think you mean F2A when you say FB2 ?- the PD for that is May 2010 and my EB2 PD doesn't carry in that case, so no diceIn most cases follow to join is faster than family based GC. But unfortunately, retrogression screwed up our lives.
Also, I can't bring my wife on any non-immigrant visa(B1/F1), since I have already established her immigration intent by filing an immigrant petition
Agreed. I've said the same before about wage surveys and recruitment efforts (they are designed to achieve a singular objective - pay whatever wage the employer wants and make damn sure that no qualified American is found). The system is basically set up to be gamed. Still, each fraudulent app (EB1C or questionable educational evals or job reqt inflation or artificially low wages or fake degrees) hurt when one has to wait 5-7 years.
gc_soon - Are you 100% sure that the PD won't carry?
Secondly - if I were you I would apply for a B visa regardless and just tell that eventually immigration intent exists. For now at least would like to visit US. What's teh worst case - the visa will be denied. It doesn't get worse than that.
Thanks Spec. The porting numbers seems scary. Seems like I have to wait for spill over.
I think you mean F2A when you say FB2 ?- the PD for that is May 2010 and my EB2 PD doesn't carry in that case, so no dice
Also, I can't bring my wife on any non-immigrant visa(B1/F1), since I have already established her immigration intent by filing an immigrant petition
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I received the Murthy newsletter just now and its clear from that , that the dates are going to be somewhere in 2006. here is thy link
http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=...6&e=00c8410215
Yeah, I'm pretty sure about this. Family based petitions have the date you apply as PD.
Yeah, I explored that option, but my lawyer (and couple of outside lawyers) were strongly against it, as it could also raise some concern at the follow to join interview. But, thanks for the suggestion. I think I'll consider it again.
Q,
An EB PD cannot be transferred to FB and vice versa.
The retention of a PD established under EB1-EB3 is covered by 8CFR 204.5(e)
This is repeated in the State Department FAM 9 FAM 42.53 N3 EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE PETITIONS section (a)(e) Retention of section 203(b)(1) , (2) , or (3) priority date. (EB1 - EB3) -- A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple petitions under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date. A petition revoked under sections 204(e) or 205 of the Act will not confer a priority date, nor will any priority date be established as a result of a denied petition. A priority date is not transferable to another alien.
Section (c) says
I am sure the same statement is also in the USCIS AFM, but I haven't looked it up.c. A priority date established in the employment-based first, second, or third preference category is not transferable to employment-based fourth or fifth preference petitions or to a family-sponsored petition.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
If EB2-ROW stays retrogressed and there is no spillover to EB2-I, someone applying for a GC today in 2012 will not get it before that person retires. SO, there is no point keeping that person in queue. If the govt is not willing to make any legislative changes to address this issue, the best way out would be to have a lottery for 2,800 visas every year and let the others go or have them renew their temporary work permits.
Guys,
Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.
Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.
Cheers
Murali
Murali,
Good luck. That must have been a very difficult decision.
I wish you all the best.
Spec
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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