EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Inventory difference between 15th Oct 2006 and 8th Mar 2007
China : 5529 - 2109 = 3420
India : 15578 - 7206 = 8372

The total inventory difference is 11792. I would say that the movement is ~ 12K. Remember before the July bulletin the target was 24K in 3 months now 50% is completed. This effectively renders the preadjudicated EB2 I + C demand to 10-12K range.
The PWMB total from May to Jul is 5K. PWMB for now are insignificant to date movements because they are like virtual demand will come to the fore only when the dates move till that point.
Now the way forward as many of you have asked. The August bulletin is going to be extremely critical; we now have 10-12K preadjudicated numbers post
8th Mar 2007. So even if we get 6K in the next 2 bulletins it should be ok. However looks like the next bulletin will also be a long shot and September will be like finishing touches.

Now we have to be cognizant to the fact that 15 + 12K = 27K SOFAD has been consumed we have crossed last years figures already. So we should keep our optimism a little bit guarded as well as to how much more we can get. I still feel that the preadjudicated numbers will be enough but looks like they will be barely enough so to cover all of them they may move the dates to 01-Aug-2007 or 01-Sep-2007 by the Sep bulletin for sure to get every one of them.

The gate definitely has to be opened it should either happen in Sep 2011 or Oct 2011 bulletin. The intake should be sufficient to maintain a 40K buffer. If the dates hit 01-Aug-2007 which I believe is 60% sure then the next intake should be till mid 2008. We will be adjusting this based on the Aug bulletin. The critical things are that people who are current should get approved that’s the key to move forward. Good luck to everyone.

Teddy,
I agree with PWMB, I am not expecting any more than 500 PWMB cases from EB2I&C until 08MAR2007.
Since EB2I&C already reached MARCH2007, DOS/USCIS should move EB2I&C to at-least JULY/AUG 2007 in August 2011 bulletin itself, assuming that they will have another ~10k available.

[ChampU]

Teddy,
I agree with PWMB, I am not expecting any more than 500 PWMB cases from EB2I&C until 08MAR2007.
Since EB2I&C already reached MARCH2007, DOS/USCIS should move EB2I&C to at-least JULY/AUG 2007 in August 2011 bulletin itself, assuming that they will have another ~10k available.

Thats some good stuff, Teddy/Veni !!!

[veni001]

Thats some good stuff, Teddy/Veni !!!

Teddy,
I agree with PWMB, I am not expecting any more than 500 PWMB cases from EB2I&C until 08MAR2007.
Since EB2I&C already reached MARCH2007, DOS/USCIS should move EB2I&C to at-least JULY/AUG 2007 in August 2011 bulletin itself, assuming that they will have another ~10k available.

This will give them an option to invite buffer, if they choose to, before end of FY and retrogress.

[tanu_75]

Pretty cool! Looks like we are on on track folks. Congratulations to all the folks who got current. Q, looks like a month more to the end of the GC road for you.

[anuran]

That is some good movement. But where is the assessment for forthcoming bulletins as well as the demand data?
Things must be moving pretty hectic over there in the corridors of USCIS. And it is almost as if they cobbled up a bulletin.
This might also mean that the Aug bulletin will be at least as good as the current one or better.
All the same congratulations to those who are current.

[pch053]

As mentioned earlier, we have already hit the SOFAD usage as compared to last earlier (and now, more is expected in the coming months). I guess, few months back (before USCIS announce of EB1 usage) the expectation was that we will have fewer SOFAD this year with one reason being we have 140K visas this year whereas there were nearly 150K approvals last year. So, is much higher than expected FD from EB1 to EB2I+C the primary source of higher SOFAD numbers? Or are we having fewer EB2-ROW approvals too?

[veni001]

As mentioned earlier, we have already hit the SOFAD usage as compared to last earlier (and now, more is expected in the coming months). I guess, few months back (before USCIS announce of EB1 usage) the expectation was that we will have fewer SOFAD this year with one reason being we have 140K visas this year whereas there were nearly 150K approvals last year. So, is much higher than expected FD from EB1 to EB2I+C the primary source of higher SOFAD numbers? Or are we having fewer EB2-ROW approvals too?

pch053,
Based on Trackitt and all other sources we have been tracking EB2ROW usage is more or less same as FY2010. I agree we did not expect very high FD from EB1 in the beginning of FY but in the end is the prime driver behind this year's movement.

[srd4gc]

hi guys, i am new to this forum.
my PD is nov 2007. any idea when i wud be current.
Congrats to all who are current!

[veni001]

That is some good movement. But where is the assessment for forthcoming bulletins as well as the demand data?
Things must be moving pretty hectic over there in the corridors of USCIS. And it is almost as if they cobbled up a bulletin.
This might also mean that the Aug bulletin will be at least as good as the current one or better.
All the same congratulations to those who are current.

anuran,
We are all expecting that DOS/USCIS will throw their prediction for the remainder of FY2011 in July VB, but as we know we can never bet on DOS/USCIS
But based on July VB movement we can now start believe in the NVC fee requests for CP eases as far as early 2008!

[GCDespo]

Q,
Agree, interestingly enough, they did not throw any prediction this time in July 2011 Visa Bulletin for the remainder of the year.

Yes that is intresting they have been saying not to assume anything and now there are no disclaimers as well.Which could be a good news

[veni001]

hi guys, i am new to this forum.
my PD is nov 2007. any idea when i wud be current.
Congrats to all who are current!

srd4gc,
Welcome, It could be as early as next month! or as far far Q3FY2012.

[srd4gc]

Next Month!!! Wow, i hope that really happens.

[veni001]

Next Month!!! Wow, i hope that really happens.

I wish too, i mean Next Bulletin( August 2011)

[neospeed]

Now its time for Aug predictions

Aug : July 08th 2007 ?
Sep : Jan 08th 2008 ?

[July2007PD]

I have couple of questions my PD is July 11 2007 Eb2 India

Last week i moved to another company and i have few questions

1) Do i get a letter from USCIS to pay fee when they are approaching to make mine current ?
2) If and when my PD becomes current do i get a email notification ? or mail ? or does the notification goes to my "NEW" lawyers for the company who filed AC 21

Since my new company is a small company i am not really sure how they track it. so Can somebody let me know what are the things i need to do so i dont miss the FEE letter and anyother MISC things i need to take care off.

Lastly i know this may been asked many times is there a chance my PD to become current soon ? just to kinda reassure myself

Please let me know!!

[pch053]

pch053,
Based on Trackitt and all other sources we have been tracking EB2ROW usage is more or less same as FY2010. I agree we did not expect very high FD from EB1 in the beginning of FY but in the end is the prime driver behind this year's movement.

Thanks veni for the explanation. I think EB2-I/C have got a huge FD from EB1. Based on what I remember, the EB1 usage last year was around 40K. I feel this year it might be in the range of 25K (or maybe less). Not sure whether this steep decline is due to fewer EB1C usage; I think consistently EB1C has used up around 60% of the EB1 quota.

[gcwait2007]

Some thing wrong with my eyes! Every thing looks 'green' color to me today (my PD 02/20/2007)

[cbpds1]

Some thing wrong with my eyes! Every thing looks 'green' color to me today (my PD 02/20/2007)

enjoy ur color blindness till it becomes permanent (pun intended)

[veni001]

Thanks veni for the explanation. I think EB2-I/C have got a huge FD from EB1. Based on what I remember, the EB1 usage last year was around 40K. I feel this year it might be in the range of 25K (or maybe less). Not sure whether this steep decline is due to fewer EB1C usage; I think consistently EB1C has used up around 60% of the EB1 quota.

On an average EB1C used to consume 55% of EB1. But looks like EB1 reduction is across the board this year mainly due to Kazarian Guidance

[veni001]

EB2I Pending with PD before March 2007 =17,381
EB2C Pending with PD before March 2007 = 6,950

Total movement with July 2011 bulletin ~= 25k + Porting Numbers

This include 5,806 EB2I&C regular quota for 2011, so Net SOFAD until July 2011 VB ~=19K

[C_Carrey]

Thanks Q, Teddy and others for the exhaustive work you guys have done over the last several months. I have been following this thread since its inception on IV. At IV, I had seen the threads created by individual needing help or providing some information. Nothing bad in that. Q's thread was the first successful attempt in creating a thread, "owning" the content and collaborating with others for shedding the light on the process that lot of us were clueless about. This is indeed a commendable effort. VDLrao was the first person who started the process and Q and others took it to the next level. Kudos !

Now the business: What are some of the things you could do if your date is current and you have already filed I-485? I am one of those who rode July-07 boat....and curious to know what could be and should be done between now and till the fun begins in July. Thank you for all the replies.

- Carrey

[qesehmk]

Carrey, thanks for the kind words. I really can't think of anything really. More than likely your case is adjudicated AND approved. Because if it were denial they wouldn't wait to tell you. So just sit back and relax.

What are some of the things you could do if your date is current and you have already filed I-485? I am one of those who rode July-07 boat....and curious to know what could be and should be done between now and till the fun begins in July. Thank you for all the replies.
- Carrey

Q: BTW, I want to thank you and everyone over here from whom I learned at lot. I got Current today, I am one of those PWMBs with late 2006 Priority Date who was royally screwed by the attorney for submitting incorrect filing fees on 1 Aug 07. Finally after long wait I will get chance to file I-485, but this does not mean I am going anywhere. I will keep posting whenever I would disagree with Gurus over here or when I will come across any interesting information to share here. Cheers.

Stuff happens... aint it? Glad you are finally current. You should get it before Dec for sure (unless some issues with your case of course). Hope to see you around and spread some wisdom!

[gcforever]

Guys,

Can someone tell me when can EB2 with PD 02/2011 expect GC? My PERM was filed in Oct 2008 which was denied after more than 2 years. Then my employer filed new PERM in Feb. 2011 which is approved now. So next stage is I-140. In your opinion, when will my PD become current?

[sunsrk]

Hi gurus, I am new to this forum. My PD is June, 2008. I have a job offer at hand and company can hire me in 1 month from now and are willing to file my PERM in 4 to 5 months time frame. With priority dates moving so fast, I am confused. Company is big and position is full-time.

Please share your thoughts or advice. I am thinking I may miss my chance of EAD even if PD moves very fast and goes back in October bulletin. But GC will not come anytime before Sep/Oct of 2012. Please comment.

[lagan2006]

Thanks Q, Teddy. Spec, Veni for your excellent work. Kudos to you all!!! This is one the best thread and I have been silently following this thread since its inception. My PD is Dec 2006 but I missed I-485 filling because of DOL error (PERM denied). If I file my I485 this July do you guys think I will get my GC within this year quota (By Sept 2011)? Or do I need to wait for next year quota..may be 6 months from now? I need to know that information because I need to change my job ASAP.Q, Teddy others, Please share your thought. Thanks in advance.