EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

Druvraj - That would be not only too extreme but almost impossible. I guarantee there will be a minimum 6 months movement. Can't be less than that under ANY circumstances.

Q,

I also read somewhere and I wish if you could confirm that there is going to be no movement in EB2I category for the FY2013.

Q, I think the 25K includes the initial allotment for EB2-IC. So shouldn't your calculation be 25K- 8K*2 - 5K = 4K

Spec, can you provide a breakdown of 25K as per your estimates (how much from different spillovers). Thanks for the detailed post.

Ghost, I am starting with 31K. The logic is really all of 2007K less 5K + 1/3rd of 2008 EB2IC was cleared in 2012. My calculations bring that to 31K.

[qesehmk]

Spec - based on 12K you are right. But earlier I said that something is missing here and I couldn't quite come to terms to 12K sofad. So my gut feel is that Sep 2008 should be reachable.

Q,

Sorry, but I would not agree.

Even using the current DOS Demand figures (which practically represent the lowest numbers) and ignoring any further porting numbers, then SOFAD of 12k (which is 9.2k for EB2-I) would only cover up to sometime in May 2008.

Currently DOS Demand shows about 5k EB2-I cases to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Once the effect of Porting and the final likely numbers (nearer the USCIS Inventory figure of 6.1k for cases before 2008 for EB2-I) are taken into account, I think a date in December 2007 would be about right for the 9.2k available to EB2-I.

EB2-C can go further than this purely on their 2.8k allocation.

[Spectator]

Q, I think the 25K includes the initial allotment for EB2-IC. So shouldn't your calculation be 25K- 8K*2 - 5K = 4K. This is probably what Spec was scared to calculate !!

Spec, can you provide a breakdown of 25K as per your estimates (how much from different spillovers). Thanks for the detailed post.

GhostWriter,

Very roughly, it would be something like :

EB1 ---------------- 6.5
EB2-WW ------------- 8.7
EB4 ---------------- ---
EB5 ---------------- 4.0

Spillover --------- 19.2
EB2-IC allocation -- 5.8

Total ------------- 25.0

Don't get hung up on the exact figures.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec, Q.
Spec, so the FB based extra 2K went to EB1 and EB2-WW and Eb2-IC received it indirectly through those spillovers.

GhostWriter,

Very roughly, it would be something like :

EB1 ---------------- 6.5
EB2-WW ------------- 8.7
EB4 ---------------- ---
EB5 ---------------- 4.0

Spillover --------- 19.2
EB2-IC allocation -- 5.8

Total ------------- 25.0

Don't get hung up on the exact figures.

[Spectator]

Spec - based on 12K you are right. But earlier I said that something is missing here and I couldn't quite come to terms to 12K sofad. So my gut feel is that Sep 2008 should be reachable.

Q,

Then you probably need to find around 10k extra visas from somewhere.

[qesehmk]

Guys my 31K is based on following 485 demand from EB2IC.

India
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0, 3,045
Feb - 0. 2,835
Mar - 0 2,310
Apr - 0 2,835
May - 0 2,625
Jun - 0 2,205
Jul - 0 2,152
Aug 2,415 2,133
Sep 2,415 1,995
Oct 2,730 2,520
Nov 2,520 2,100
Dec 2,310 2,188

China
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0 1,015
Feb - 0 945
Mar - 0 770
Apr - 0 945
May - 0 875
Jun - 0 735
Jul - 0 717
Aug 805 711
Sep 805 665
Oct 910 840
Nov 840 700
Dec 770 729

Based on this and the fact that 1/3 of 2008 is already approved and only 5K is remaining of 2007 & about equal or more was backlog from Oct 2011. 31K is the minimum SOFAD that EB2IC received in 2012.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec, Q.
Spec, so the FB based extra 2K went to EB1 and EB2-WW and Eb2-IC received it indirectly through those spillovers.

Not quite. See post #7908.

An extra 1,456 was available from EB1.
An extra 391 was available from EB5.

That's 1,847 which I rounded up to 2k.

If EB4 contributed then that would be an extra 392 making 2,239 in total.

Either way, 2k is a convenient figure to use.

[druvraj]

Druvraj - That would be not only too extreme but almost impossible. I guarantee there will be a minimum 6 months movement. Can't be less than that under ANY circumstances.




Ghost, I am starting with 31K. The logic is really all of 2007K less 5K + 1/3rd of 2008 EB2IC was cleared in 2012. My calculations bring that to 31K.

Q,

I am sorry for the question. What I really wanted to ask was in the first 6 months of the FY 2013 there will be no movement right? We will see movement only in the last half of the year i.e. April onward...

[openaccount]

Guys my 31K is based on following 485 demand from EB2IC.

India
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0, 3,045
Feb - 0. 2,835
Mar - 0 2,310
Apr - 0 2,835
May - 0 2,625
Jun - 0 2,205
Jul - 0 2,152
Aug 2,415 2,133
Sep 2,415 1,995
Oct 2,730 2,520
Nov 2,520 2,100
Dec 2,310 2,188

China
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0 1,015
Feb - 0 945
Mar - 0 770
Apr - 0 945
May - 0 875
Jun - 0 735
Jul - 0 717
Aug 805 711
Sep 805 665
Oct 910 840
Nov 840 700
Dec 770 729

Based on this and the fact that 1/3 of 2008 is already approved and only 5K is remaining of 2007 & about equal or more was backlog from Oct 2011. 31K is the minimum SOFAD that EB2IC received in 2012.

Q,
Based on your approach there must have been around 8-9k approvals during Feb/March2012 for EB2IC just for PDs between Apr152008-Dec312008. This is just for applications filed In January 2012 and there must be approvals from previous month's(Dec2012) applications, if we assume that number to be around 4-5k, in Total there were around 12-14k EB2IC approvals in Feb/March 2012. I find it little hard to believe that CO didn't recognize that for almost 2 months.

[qesehmk]

Druvraj no need to be sorry. Just shoot a question if u have one. I think there will be movement even during q1 let alone 6 months. How much? Don't know.

Q,

I am sorry for the question. What I really wanted to ask was in the first 6 months of the FY 2013 there will be no movement right? We will see movement only in the last half of the year i.e. April onward...

Q,
Based on your approach there must have been around 8-9k approvals during Feb/March2012 for EB2IC just for PDs between Apr152008-Dec312008. This is just for applications filed In January 2012 and there must be approvals from previous month's(Dec2012) applications, if we assume that number to be around 4-5k, in Total there were around 12-14k EB2IC approvals in Feb/March 2012. I find it little hard to believe that CO didn't recognize that for almost 2 months.

Openaccount. Sorry didn't understand ur logic.

[Spectator]

Guys my 31K is based on following 485 demand from EB2IC.

....

Based on this and the fact that 1/3 of 2008 is already approved and only 5K is remaining of 2007 & about equal or more was backlog from Oct 2011. 31K is the minimum SOFAD that EB2IC received in 2012.

Q,

I don't understand your figures. Maybe I am missing something.

Looking at EB2-I 2008, you have a demand of 28,943. That doesn't look right.

Overall, that represents an OR of 1.23 compared to the 23,566 PERM Certifications for India in the same period.

That is too high in my opinion. Personally, I have a calculated OR of nearer 0.85 (or c. 20k cases).

I believe the figure of 2008 cases already approved is about 25-27%.

Both the above would explain why you think the number of approvals are so much higher.

[yank]

Q/Spec,

Please advice basis of 1/3rd 2008 approval for EB2 I/C and if EB revived 5 K visas from FB then why there is no movement in EB2 ROW. There should be some movement at least couple of months. Is is possible those 5k would be allocated in FY 2013 as DOS came to know very late about those visas?

Sorry, if these are naive questions!

[openaccount]

Druvraj no need to be sorry. Just shoot a question if u have one. I think there will be movement even during q1 let alone 6 months. How much? Don't know.


Openaccount. Sorry didn't understand ur logic.

Q,
Sure no problem I was trying to explain for that many approvals to happen CO must have been totally unaware of what was going on especially in last 2 months(Feb/Mar2012).

For EB2IC to consume 31k and to clear 1/3 of 2008, there should have been around 12-14k EB2IC approvals in Feb/March 2012.
Month-------------------Approvals-------PD
Oct2011--Jan2012------->17k-----------Apr2007-Apr2008
Feb2012-Mar2012------->14k-----------Apr2007-Dec2008(in this 14k about 9k should be for applications filed in Jan2012 i.e., PD Apr2008-Dec2008)

17k approvals in 4 months are understandable but 14k in just 2months I don't think so that is why i was saying was CO really unaware of this many approvals and did he not realize until last minute.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks, got it (probably). So EB2-IC received an extra 1.8K (~2K) in spillover from EB1 and EB5 due to extra FB allotment to them. Shouldn't the extra 1.4K that EB2 received directly from FB be deducted as well in your adjustment (post 7909) below. Overall it is immaterial i guess. But the total benefit from FB to EB2-IC was 3.2K (~ 3.4K) (since EB2-IC is the residual category for EB2, even if 1.4K for EB2 was alloted to EB2-ROW, it would have increased the spillover for EB2-IC).

Not quite. See post #7908.

An extra 1,456 was available from EB1.
An extra 391 was available from EB5.

That's 1,847 which I rounded up to 2k.

If EB4 contributed then that would be an extra 392 making 2,239 in total.

Either way, 2k is a convenient figure to use.

Net SOFAD FY2012 ---------------- 17
Less extra from FB in FY2012 ---- (2)

[openaccount]

The underlying backlog was increased by 10k in FY2011 due to low approvals (the I-140 numbers and denial ratios should have given 35-36k) and appears to have been left at that level during FY2012.

Spec,
10k backlog from 2011 carried over to 2012 is true but approvals increased drastically this year(at least in trackitt), don't you think that should decrease 2012 backlog compared to 2011. Not sure how good are EB1 trackitt numbers in terms of real EB1 demand during previous years. Just another point of view from my side, would like to know your comments.

[Spectator]

Q/Spec,

Please advice basis of 1/3rd 2008 approval for EB2 I/C and if EB revived 5 K visas from FB then why there is no movement in EB2 ROW. There should be some movement at least couple of months. Is is possible those 5k would be allocated in FY 2013 as DOS came to know very late about those visas?

Sorry, if these are naive questions!

yank,

I've mentioned this in a previous post.

DOS cannot officially calculate the numbers for the year and publish them in the VB until USCIS provide some figures to DOS. They did this even later than normal this year.

None of the figures required would alter the EB calculation and CO had the FB usage numbers required to do so shortly after the end of the FY2011 year in September 2011. Normally, he publishes the Visa Statistics in January, but waited until August this year for some unknown reason.

He has therefore known about the extra numbers for nearly 12 months and moved the Cut Off Dates accordingly. The extra numbers were not a surprise.

The numbers may not be allocated in FY2013.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Very roughly, it would be something like :
[FONT="Courier New"]EB1 ---------------- 6.5
EB2-WW ------------- 8.7
EB4 ---------------- ---
EB5 ---------------- 4.0
Spillover --------- 19.2

So in 2013 we should expect to see 31K - 8K*2 - 5K = 10K.

The 2x kicker for the EB2ROW backlog would not apply for 2013 as EB2 will have maxed out its 40K visa number allotment for the year, and all additional spillover will go to EB2IC (only I really) as the most backlogged categories.

Based on Spec's spill over breakdown above, actual EB2ROW visa numbers used in 2012 was 40K +2K (from FB) - 2.94K x 2 (EB2IC) - 8.7K (FA) = 27.5K.
True EB2ROW demand for 2012 was 27.5K + 8K (backlog) = 35.5K

For 2013, max visas available for EB2ROW (all spillover will go to EB2IC as most backlogged) = 40K (total assuming 0 from FB) - 2.8*2 (EB2IC) = 34.4K;

Since 35.5K > 34.4K, EB2ROW will not be able to use 27.5K (actual 2012 usage) + 8K x 2 = 43.5K, as you suggest but only 34.4K. On a side note, relative backlog of EB2ROW will expand (or, in other words, EB2ROW cut off date will move forward less than 12 months).

This maybe what Spec referred to when he said:

On the other hand, USCIS may just continue with a higher backlog for EB2-WW, as they appear to have done for EB1.
Until retrogression, EB2-WW did look on course to use close to their full allocation.

Now, going back to Qs math above, EB2IC will receive 31K - 8.7K - 5K = 17.3K of SOFAD for 2013.
With Spec's 25K estimate, we are looking at 25K - 8.7K -5K = 11.3K of SOFAD for 2013.
This then leaves us still having to a) clarify the disparity between Qs 31K estimate vs. Spec's 25K estimate for 2012 SOFAD, and b) estimate 2013 EB3 I to EB2 I porting.

[Spectator]

Thanks, got it (probably). So EB2-IC received an extra 1.8K (~2K) in spillover from EB1 and EB5 due to extra FB allotment to them. Shouldn't the extra 1.4K that EB2 received directly from FB be deducted as well in your adjustment (post 7909) below. Overall it is immaterial i guess. But the total benefit from FB to EB2-IC was 3.2K (~ 3.4K) (since EB2-IC is the residual category for EB2, even if 1.4K for EB2 was alloted to EB2-ROW, it would have increased the spillover for EB2-IC).

GhostWriter,

That's a good observation.

My explanation is that I was including the 1.4k in the 8k that EB2-WW were short, but I think that's incorrect. The EB2-WW shortage would have been 1.4k greater if only 140k had been available or EB2-IC would have received 1.4k less.

But you are correct, the loss to EB2 as a whole is 3.4k, not 2k. Thanks for pointing that out - I do appreciate such thorough scrutiny.

My final figure in the calculation therefore reduces to 10.6k SOFAD for EB2-IC.

[Spectator]

The 2x kicker for the EB2ROW backlog would not apply for 2013 as EB2 will have maxed out its 40K visa number allotment for the year, and all additional spillover will go to EB2IC (only I really) as the most backlogged categories.

Pedro,

That is not correct as I read the law.

Countries that have reached the 7% limit may not use spillover visas until all demand from Countries that have not reached their individual 7% limit has been satisfied.

If EB2-WW need more than 34.4k and spillover is available, then that demand will be met first. Only then does spillover go to the earliest PD for Countries who have already reached their 7% limit of 2.8k (in practice only EB2-I in FY2013).

It has been discussed extensively previously.

The kicker (as you put it) is that, in a nuclear scenario, EB2-I might only be left with the initial allocation of 2.8k if EB2-WW demand is equal to or exceeds 34.4k + spillover available. By the way, I don't believe that will happen.

[Spectator]

On another note I count 485. For eb2 at 60% and 2.1 ratio to perm. Do not count rejections to make it conservative from prediction perspective .....but from visa usage perspective that is turning out aggressive isn't it?

Q,

Thanks for the explanation. I understand where your figure comes from now.

It does seem a little aggressive based on the actual numbers we're actually seeing.

For 2009, your figures would give 16,596 * 60% * 2.1 = 20,911

The USCIS Inventory shows 13,429

An OR of 0.85 would give 13,942 which seems more in the ball park.

Roughly speaking, in the old language, the 0.85 is 65% EB2, 80% of PERM become approved I-140, 2.05 I-485 per I-140 and nearly 80% of cases have survived.

[Newbie2009]

Hi All,
I am new to this forum and have some questions which I have jotted down below. Can someone please answer these or point me to a link where I can find the answers to

these?

Currently working for Company A for which my labor was filed (My PD is 2009), 140 approved, 485 filed, 180 days passed, currently on H1 which expires in end of 2013.

1. My job title & duties have been the same since I joined ( > 4 yrs) and my labor was filed for the same job title & duties. If I continue working for Company A and

supposedly my GC is approved, would I still need to stay in company A for 6 more months after receiving my GC? Since I have already served for > 180 days after filing

485, can I leave company A within one month of receiving the GC?

2. I suppose I can join a company B on H1 (same job title & duties), but will the H1 be filed for another 3 yrs in the new company or will it expire in end of 2013?

Meaning, considering the status I am in, can I join (theoretically) n number of companies with always 3 yrs of H1 (till I get my GC)?

3. If I join company B on H1 (same job title & duties), do I need to restart GC there (labor, 140 etc) or can I always get 3 yrs of extension on H1 till my GC comes?


Thanks in Advance !!!

Newbie2009

[qesehmk]

Newbie- welcome to the forum. I will give you my quick "opinions", but check out others' opinions as well.

On #1 - There is no definitive answer. Some say 180 days after 485 filing is just fine.
On #2 - Regardless of how many companies you join - your total H1 consecutive duration is 6 years max except when an approved labor GC is pending.
On #3 - Yes you will get extensions - I am not sure if they are always 3 years. But you can continue to get extensions.

Hi All,
I am new to this forum and have some questions which I have jotted down below. Can someone please answer these or point me to a link where I can find the answers to

these?

Currently working for Company A for which my labor was filed (My PD is 2009), 140 approved, 485 filed, 180 days passed, currently on H1 which expires in end of 2013.

1. My job title & duties have been the same since I joined ( > 4 yrs) and my labor was filed for the same job title & duties. If I continue working for Company A and

supposedly my GC is approved, would I still need to stay in company A for 6 more months after receiving my GC? Since I have already served for > 180 days after filing

485, can I leave company A within one month of receiving the GC?

2. I suppose I can join a company B on H1 (same job title & duties), but will the H1 be filed for another 3 yrs in the new company or will it expire in end of 2013?

Meaning, considering the status I am in, can I join (theoretically) n number of companies with always 3 yrs of H1 (till I get my GC)?

3. If I join company B on H1 (same job title & duties), do I need to restart GC there (labor, 140 etc) or can I always get 3 yrs of extension on H1 till my GC comes?


Thanks in Advance !!!

Newbie2009

[eb2visa]

See below responses

Hi All,
I am new to this forum and have some questions which I have jotted down below. Can someone please answer these or point me to a link where I can find the answers to

these?

Currently working for Company A for which my labor was filed (My PD is 2009), 140 approved, 485 filed, 180 days passed, currently on H1 which expires in end of 2013.

1. My job title & duties have been the same since I joined ( > 4 yrs) and my labor was filed for the same job title & duties. If I continue working for Company A and

supposedly my GC is approved, would I still need to stay in company A for 6 more months after receiving my GC? Since I have already served for > 180 days after filing

485, can I leave company A within one month of receiving the GC?

No Rule says you have to stay, but it might raise a flag while going for citizenship. So stay for some time.

2. I suppose I can join a company B on H1 (same job title & duties), but will the H1 be filed for another 3 yrs in the new company or will it expire in end of 2013?

Meaning, considering the status I am in, can I join (theoretically) n number of companies with always 3 yrs of H1 (till I get my GC)?

It will be a new H1 and it should be 1 or 3 years depending on your priority date as it is based on your I-140

3. If I join company B on H1 (same job title & duties), do I need to restart GC there (labor, 140 etc) or can I always get 3 yrs of extension on H1 till my GC comes?

No need, you can port using AC21


Thanks in Advance !!!

Newbie2009

[insane_yogi]

Hi,
Not Sure if this document has already been analyzed.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...ta_jun2012.pdf

[Spectator]

They can be found at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rmancedata.cfm

I have already updated the figures in the various threads in the FACTS & DATA section.

The decisions actually cover up to about July 13, so slightly more than three quarters.

Certifications to date by fiscal quarter are as follows:

Q1 ----- 9,508
Q2 ----- 7,086
Q3 ---- 17,255
Q4 ----- 2,104

Total - 35,953

Q3 certifications were more than Q1 and Q2 combined.

India represented 55% of all Certifications.

The figures are a confirmation of the recent PERM factsheet.