EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[openaccount]

Any thoughts / predictions for a PD of (late) July 2008?

Worst Scenario--FY2016
Likely Scenario--FY2015
Optimistic Scenario--FY2014

I think dates will be staying at Pre-Dec2007 for at least couple of years unless there is considerable Spill Over form EB5/EB1.

[suninphx]

Worst Scenario--FY2016
Likely Scenario--FY2015
Optimistic Scenario--FY2014

I think dates will be staying at Pre-Dec2007 for at least couple of years unless there is considerable Spill Over form EB5/EB1.

Is this based on any calculations other than Spec's? It just amazes me when people still believe that concerned departments will behave in logical manner in future. Their past performance does not indicate that. While I am great fan of Spec's calculations (thank you Spec) it is slightly disappointing to see him in 'date predition' game, specially when he has seen so much over the years. Anyway that's my personal opinion and no way meant to show any disrespect for Spec. It's just that I liked his posts more when it just gave the calculations and left prediction to individuals (based on their own assumptions).

[kkruna]

I get a feeling that pessimism has taken garb of realism on this thread.

[Spectator]

Is this based on any calculations other than Spec's? It just amazes me when people still believe that concerned departments will behave in logical manner in future. Their past performance does not indicate that. While I am great fan of Spec's calculations (thank you Spec) it is slightly disappointing to see him in 'date predition' game, specially when he has seen so much over the years. Anyway that's my personal opinion and no way meant to show any disrespect for Spec. It's just that I liked his posts more when it just gave the calculations and left prediction to individuals (based on their own assumptions).

suninphx,

Not sure why you think I have entered "date prediction mode".

As you say, I prefer to lay the information out there for everybody and let people draw their own conclusion.

That said, I don't feel I can never post what I think that information says to myself personally. I've stuck to my guns regarding EB1, EB5 numbers and overuse of EB2 even though it hasn't been a popular or universal view at times.

As FY2012 draws to a close, especially with almost no activity in EB2, I think it is natural that thoughts should turn to what is gong to happen in FY2013 and future years.

If nobody lays out their thoughts, how can we have a discussion?

[Spectator]

I get a feeling that pessimism has taken garb of realism on this thread.

kkruna,

Ultimately, it is not about pessimism or optimism - it is about being realistic. If people can't take what I say, then they probably shouldn't read my posts. I back up my thoughts with the reasons.

No offence, but if you disagree, why don't you lay out your thoughts and back them up with reasons for them.

That is far more interesting and constructive than just having a moan.

[qesehmk]

kkruna, USCIS and DOS are extremely unpredictable. And sometimes I think they are that way by design. Every year since 2007 something or else is unique about each one of those years. This year they approved 2008 cases well ahead of 2007. They completely disregarded quota and allocated visas to EB2IC over ROW. So to be perfectly honest - that has thrown people into a tizzy.

So what everybody produces on this thread is generally directionally correct but nobody can say with certainty that that's how it's going to happen. The intention is to provide data to support your theory/hypotheses and keep room for some doubt. I agree with Spec - if you think this is turning pessimistic then try putting your gut feel onto paper using numbers and see where that takes us. Perhaps you can find something interesting that will be useful to all!! Good luck!

I get a feeling that pessimism has taken garb of realism on this thread.

[chengisk]

kkruna,

Ultimately, it is not about pessimism or optimism - it is about being realistic. If people can't take what I say, then they probably shouldn't read my posts. I back up my thoughts with the reasons.

No offence, but if you disagree, why don't you lay out your thoughts and back them up with reasons for them.

That is far more interesting and constructive than just having a moan.

Spec, I think @kkruna is referring to @suninphx's post. @suninphx in turn is referring to the post by @openaccount and I am assuming that he is frustrated, as per him, about the nonpredictable nature of the departments concerned. There are only a one-hand finger countable number of savants in this forum who have a grasp of the numbers involved and I would always start with you on the very top. Believe me that every single post of yours is eagerly awaited for and studied carefully. Yours and a few others indeed form the backbone of this forum. We (I think I can say for suninphx too) all eagerly look forward to more of your assessments and hope you keep a part of your grey cells allocated to just do this. Much appreciated. Have a nice day.

[kkruna]

I was responding to this post. I like the data based collaborative approach that I get to see on this forum unlike anywhere else. But you would agree that, historically, we have seen wait times for EB2I play out between 4 to 5+ years. Now, we predict here 6 to 8 years. There are obviously pitfalls in depending too much on historical trends but we should be careful in negating it since the trend includes averaging of various underlying variables and, on other hand, we tend to magnify the selection of variables that we study.

Unfortunately, I am unable to devote time at present to delve into details due to work pressures and working on daughter's college admission. I love data and will contribute more meaningfully to discussions here in coming months.

Worst Scenario--FY2016
Likely Scenario--FY2015
Optimistic Scenario--FY2014

I think dates will be staying at Pre-Dec2007 for at least couple of years unless there is considerable Spill Over form EB5/EB1.

[kkruna]

You are spot on ...

Spec, I think @kkruna is referring to @suninphx's post. @suninphx in turn is referring to the post by @openaccount and I am assuming that he is frustrated, as per him, about the nonpredictable nature of the departments concerned. There are only a one-hand finger countable number of savants in this forum who have a grasp of the numbers involved and I would always start with you on the very top. Believe me that every single post of yours is eagerly awaited for and studied carefully. Yours and a few others indeed form the backbone of this forum. We (I think I can say for suninphx too) all eagerly look forward to more of your assessments and hope you keep a part of your grey cells allocated to just do this. Much appreciated. Have a nice day.

[Spectator]

I was responding to this post. I like the data based collaborative approach that I get to see on this forum unlike anywhere else. But you would agree that, historically, we have seen wait times for EB2I play out between 4 to 5+ years. Now, we predict here 6 to 8 years. There are obviously pitfalls in depending too much on historical trends but we should be careful in negating it since the trend includes averaging of various underlying variables and, on other hand, we tend to magnify the selection of variables that we study.

Unfortunately, I am unable to devote time at present to delve into details due to work pressures and working on daughter's college admission. I love data and will contribute more meaningfully to discussions here in coming months.

kkruna,

I didn't necessarily think your comment was aimed at me, but my overall comment remains. I do think openaccount might (or should) have backed up those predictions with an explanation. That is the ethos of the forum in my mind.

The 4-5 year wait can only be sustained if EB2-I receives large numbers of spillover visas each year, since the demand for an EB2-I PD year is about 15k and likely to increase beyond where Cut Off Dates have already reached.

If any FY (or years) fall below that level of Indian SOFAD (plus porting for the year), then the wait time will increase.

What happened this year will probably have consequences next year because of the backlog in EB2-WW that will build up and a change in how DOS releases any spillover.

There are some negative indicators, even taking historical performance into account.

I think I have said enough.

Good luck with the College admission. I can understand how stressful and time consuming it must be.

I look forward to your contributions when you have more time.

[openaccount]

Is this based on any calculations other than Spec's? It just amazes me when people still believe that concerned departments will behave in logical manner in future. Their past performance does not indicate that. While I am great fan of Spec's calculations (thank you Spec) it is slightly disappointing to see him in 'date predition' game, specially when he has seen so much over the years. Anyway that's my personal opinion and no way meant to show any disrespect for Spec. It's just that I liked his posts more when it just gave the calculations and left prediction to individuals (based on their own assumptions).

Sunphix,

I can understand your frustration.
My prediction is not solely based on Spec's estimate nor being pessimistic or anything. 2012 was unusual because of lack of inventory. Now there good number of preajudicated cases in front of CO, we have seen how CO moved dates in past couple of years when there is Inventory. And more over we have seen increase in EB5/EB1 usage this year. Below is spill over i am expecting in 2013, we can debate over this whether there will be an increase or decrease in Spill over, right now the way things are shaping up I do not see a reason to believe that there will be substantial increase in Spill Over.

2013 SO
EB5---0-1k(According CO's estimate in July)
EB1--3-4k(Depends on If EB1 is going to get Cutoff Date in Sept VB or not)
EB2ROW--?(this is big question mark if they are going to consume any SO from EB5/EB1 again this depends on backlog that is accumulated this year we will know exact number in Oct demand data)


P.S: As i mentioned in my earlier posts having PD of May2008,I am also not happy with this but this is what numbers are pointing to at present.

[bvsamrat]

Once again my favorite topic. My only suggestion is that with every logical prediction, just indicate the possible exceptions, which makes every one understand/be happy and make thier judgments.

Another weird logic

2007 is a special case

2011 is special case

2015 will also be special case

Hence by 2015 December all cases up 2013 may get current.

Now everybody can feel happy. Start guessing when you can your PD current again?

Sunphix,

I can understand your frustration.
My prediction is not solely based on Spec's estimate nor being pessimistic or anything. 2012 was unusual because of lack of inventory. Now there good number of preajudicated cases in front of CO, we have seen how CO moved dates in past couple of years when there is Inventory. And more over we have seen increase in EB5/EB1 usage this year. Below is spill over i am expecting in 2013, we can debate over this whether there will be an increase or decrease in Spill over, right now the way things are shaping up I do not see a reason to believe that there will be substantial increase in Spill Over.

2013 SO
EB5---0-1k(According CO's estimate in July)
EB1--3-4k(Depends on If EB1 is going to get Cutoff Date in Sept VB or not)
EB2ROW--?(this is big question mark if they are going to consume any SO from EB5/EB1 again this depends on backlog that is accumulated this year we will know exact number in Oct demand data)


P.S: As i mentioned in my earlier posts having PD of May2008,I am also not happy with this but this is what numbers are pointing to at present.

[Spectator]

we will know exact number in Oct demand data

openaccount,

I think the October Demand Data will show the situation as of about 6th/7th September when it is published.

The figure will need to adjusted upwards to the end of the FY (about 3 weeks worth).

By the time the November Demand Data comes out in early October, some of the cases will have already been approved in FY2013 and it will show a lower number than the true year ending figure.

My thoughts anyway.

[openaccount]

Spec-
yes, I was referring to demand data that will be released in October--Nov Demand Data. Approximately(+ 1 week approvals) that will be the number that is carried over from 2012.

[openaccount]

For FY2012 following is my estimation for visa consumption across EB1/4/5/2. This is split across months as approvals varied across months. This is based on this article(http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/ar...012-03-27.html) which i found in this forum back in March. If EB1 uses anything < 35k and if it gets COD in Sept then those numbers are consumed by EB2 most probably ROW, we will find out about this in next VB, i will be more than happy if EB1 stays 'C' for Sept VB.

EB4/EB5 numbers are based on CO comments in July regarding EB5 numbers and some comments from above article regarding EB4.

Category---Oct2011 to Dec2011--Jan2012 to Mar2012--Apr2012 to Sept2012---Total
EB2IC-------10k-------------------------16k-------------------------0k-----------------26k(you may not agree with this number but i think EB2IC consumed >25k in Fy2012)
EB2ROW----6k---------------------------7k--------------------------9k-----------------22k(This is based on retrogression in Q4 and EB2 consumption of around 38-40k in Q1+Q2)
EB1----------6k--------------------------10k------------------------20k-----------------36k(In above article CO mentioned no Spill down from EB1, which is more or less EB1 will consume >=35k)
EB5/EB4-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------16k(EB5--6k+EB4--10k)

[nikjoshi]

Hi Gurus and Experts - my PD is July 31, 2011. When can I expect to get current based on the current trends?

[qesehmk]

openaccount - that sounds reasonable. imho eb2ic could go as high as 30K.

For FY2012 following is my estimation for visa consumption across EB1/4/5/2. This is split across months as approvals varied across months. This is based on this article(http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/ar...012-03-27.html) which i found in this forum back in March. If EB1 uses anything < 35k and if it gets COD in Sept then those numbers are consumed by EB2 most probably ROW, we will find out about this in next VB, i will be more than happy if EB1 stays 'C' for Sept VB.

EB4/EB5 numbers are based on CO comments in July regarding EB5 numbers and some comments from above article regarding EB4.

Category---Oct2011 to Dec2011--Jan2012 to Mar2012--Apr2012 to Sept2012---Total
EB2IC-------10k-------------------------16k-------------------------0k-----------------26k(you may not agree with this number but i think EB2IC consumed >25k in Fy2012)
EB2ROW----6k---------------------------7k--------------------------9k-----------------22k(This is based on retrogression in Q4 and EB2 consumption of around 38-40k in Q1+Q2)
EB1----------6k--------------------------10k------------------------20k-----------------36k(In above article CO mentioned no Spill down from EB1, which is more or less EB1 will consume >=35k)
EB5/EB4-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------16k(EB5--6k+EB4--10k)

Hi Gurus and Experts - my PD is July 31, 2011. When can I expect to get current based on the current trends?

nik - 5 yrs from pd is rule of thumb. with hr3012 it could be 2.5 yrs.

[yank]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[CleanSock]

28,250.. I don't remember the number from previous months demand data for EB2I, but has it gone down or is it still the same?

[openaccount]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

thank you.

EB2 ROW---2,775X3=8325(retrogressed for 3 months taking 2775 as base per month for 3 months it would be 8325)

So EB2ROW will be using at least +8k in FY2013.

[Spectator]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

yank,

Thanks for the heads up.

28,250.. I don't remember the number from previous months demand data for EB2I, but has it gone down or is it still the same?

CleanSock,

It was 22,225 last month for EB2-I.

January 01, 2008 ---- + 850
January 01, 2009 -- + 1,650
January 01, 2010 -- + 2,450
January 01, 2012 -- + 1,750


What I noticed was that the EB2-WW number has increased by 2,000.

[openaccount]

openaccount - that sounds reasonable. imho eb2ic could go as high as 30K.

agree i am expecting it to be around 28k

[openaccount]

thank you.

EB2 ROW---2,775X3=8325(retrogressed for 3 months taking 2775 as base per month for 3 months it would be 8325)

So EB2ROW will be using at least +8k in FY2013.

other approach taking weekly basis below is calculation for Jul1-Sept31(2012)---13 weeks

2775----5 weeks(Jul1-Aug5)
555------1 week
7215----13 weeks(Jul1-Sept31)

So 7215 is minimum number of approvals that could have happened in Q4 without retrogression for EB2ROW. As USCIS is approving some 485 cases within 2-3 months, we can add an extra 1k to the number, so totally EB2ROW needs +8k approvals as starting point in FY2013

[CleanSock]

Thanks Spec!

It may have been answered before but sorry for asking again. Why did the number increase when EB2I has been Unavailable since many months?No new applications, no porting. Is USCIS showing pre adjudicated numbers?

yank,

Thanks for the heads up.

CleanSock,

It was 22,225 last month for EB2-I.

January 01, 2008 ---- + 850
January 01, 2009 -- + 1,650
January 01, 2010 -- + 2,450
January 01, 2012 -- + 1,750


What I noticed was that the EB2-WW number has increased by 2,000.

[GhostWriter]

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404

EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)