EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[pdfeb09]

" ... EB1-EB5
India -------- 33,043 -- 23.72% ...
Mexico -------- 9,347 --- 6.71%
...FB
India -------- 12,032 --- 5.44% ..
Mexico ------- 44,732 -- 20.24%
.....

..EB+FB
...
India -------- 45,075 -- 12.51%
Mexico ------- 54,079 -- 15.01%
...

"

I am just curious ... I understand that EB(I) got so many visas(23.72%) because of the spillover from various other EB categories and there are no 7% country limit on the spillover... and so India ended up cumulative (FB+EB) 12.51% in the end.

Is there a spillover in FB too ? How did Mexico end up with 20.24% of FB visas ? It definitely puts them over the 7% overall limit of FB+EB .. Just asking because I am unaware of spillover rules on the FB side...

On an unrelated note... It is great to see that NO spillover was wasted .. hope the extra 1900+ visas used this year won't make DOS overshoot on the cautious side next time.. and waste any visas..

PS: Spectator .. have I thanked you recently? Here goes .. A Big Thank You !

[Spectator]

" ... EB1-EB5
India -------- 33,043 -- 23.72% ...
Mexico -------- 9,347 --- 6.71%
...FB
India -------- 12,032 --- 5.44% ..
Mexico ------- 44,732 -- 20.24%
.....

..EB+FB
...
India -------- 45,075 -- 12.51%
Mexico ------- 54,079 -- 15.01%
...

"

I am just curious ... I understand that EB(I) got so many visas(23.72%) because of the spillover from various other EB categories and there are no 7% country limit on the spillover... and so India ended up cumulative (FB+EB) 12.51% in the end.

Is there a spillover in FB too ? How did Mexico end up with 20.24% of FB visas ? It definitely puts them over the 7% overall limit of FB+EB .. Just asking because I am unaware of spillover rules on the FB side...

On an unrelated note... It is great to see that NO spillover was wasted .. hope the extra 1900+ visas used this year won't make DOS overshoot on the cautious side next time.. and waste any visas..

PS: Spectator .. have thanked you recently? Here goes .. A Big Thank You !

pdfeb09,

Yes there is a spillover concept in FB as well. It is explained in every VB.

F2A has some strange rules where some approvals are exempt from the numerical limits.

In particular, NO Mexico F2A approvals count against the 7% limit.

In the August VB for example, it says :

*NOTE: For August, F2A numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit are available to applicants from all countries with priority dates earlier than 01MAR10. F2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 01MAR10 and earlier than 15MAR10. (All F2A numbers provided for MEXICO are exempt from the per-country limit; there are no F2A numbers for MEXICO subject to per-country limit.)

Of the 44,732 FB visas that Mexico received, 34,363 were in F2A.

So for calculation purposes (at least as I understand it) Mexico received (44,732 - 34,363) + 9,347 = 19,716 visas, which is 5.39%.

Glad my efforts are appreciated. I have been waiting a long time to post the figures for FY2011.

Those extra numbers for EB2 came at the expense of EB3 and EB3-ROW in particular. I don't think they would share your view, since they lost numbers left, right and centre for various reasons in FY2011.

[openaccount]

Awesome Spec very detailed compilation.

Comparing Inventory and Approvals below are findings.

Oct2010 Uscis INV EB2IC-->35658
Oct2011 Uscis INV EB2IC-->13101
FY2011 Approvals EB2IC-->32254

PWMB+Porting FY2011EB2IC---->9697 (32254+13101-35658)

Ignored CP as CP approvals are very less, few hundred for EB2IC.

In total there were around 9.5k PWMB+Porting in FY2011 for EB2IC.

[kd2008]

Awesome Spec very detailed compilation.

Comparing Inventory and Approvals below are findings.

Oct2010 Uscis INV EB2IC-->35658
Oct2011 Uscis INV EB2IC-->13101
FY2011 Approvals EB2IC-->32254

PWMB+Porting FY2011EB2IC---->9697 (32254+13101-35658)

Ignored CP as CP approvals are very less, few hundred for EB2IC.

In total there were around 9.5k PWMB+Porting in FY2011 for EB2IC.

Oct2010 Uscis INV EB3IC-->60756
Oct2011 Uscis INV EB3IC-->54860
FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->6544 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->4789 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (60756-54860) - 4789 = 5896 - 4789 = 1107

PWMB ---> ~9500 - 1100 = ~8400

My math may not be correct. Please check.

[kd2008]

Oct2010 Uscis INV EB3IC-->60756
Oct2011 Uscis INV EB3IC-->54860
FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->6544 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->4789 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (60756-54860) - 4789 = 5896 - 4789 = 1107

PWMB ---> ~9500 - 1100 = ~8400

My math may not be correct. Please check.

I am repeating the same exercise with DoS demand data numbers.

Oct2010 DoS INV EB3IC-->66875
Oct2011 DoS INV EB3IC-->58925
FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->6544 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->4789 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (66875 - 58925) - 4789 = 7950 - 4789 = 3161

PWMB ---> ~9500 - 3161 = ~6339

This makes Teddy's estimates of 3K porting accurate. Doesn't it?

Similarly for ROW:

Oct2010 DoS INV EB3ROWMP-->69450
Oct2011 DoS INV EB3RoWMP-->51400
FY2011 Approvals EB3ROWMP-->30881 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3ROWMP-->25074 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (69450 - 51400) - 25074 = 18050 - 25074 = This is less than zero. Something is not right!!!

[openaccount]

I am repeating the same exercise with DoS demand data numbers.

Oct2010 DoS INV EB3IC-->66875
Oct2011 DoS INV EB3IC-->58925
FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->6544 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->4789 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (66875 - 58925) - 4789 = 7950 - 4789 = 3161

PWMB ---> ~9500 - 3161 = ~6339

This makes Teddy's estimates of 3K porting accurate. Doesn't it?

Similarly for ROW:

Oct2010 DoS INV EB3ROWMP-->69450
Oct2011 DoS INV EB3RoWMP-->51400
FY2011 Approvals EB3ROWMP-->30881 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3ROWMP-->25074 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (69450 - 51400) - 25074 = 18050 - 25074 = This is less than zero. Something is not right!!!

Good find Kd, was about to look at DOS inv.DOS inv is much more accurate compared to USCIS one. you are right porting is 3k or >3k for 2011 but not less than 3k.

[Spectator]

kd,

I'll admit I am not a great fan of analysing the EB3 figures to derive porting. I think the EB2 figures give a much more "accurate" picture.

Far too much is going on with EB3 that distorts the result. EB2 is relatively stable in comparison.

Quite apart form widely differing CP% in EB3, the starting and ending figures are not comparable. In Jan2011 about 10k (from memory) cases were returned to TSC from Local Field Offices. We know neither the Category split or the Country split for these returns. However, we can probably say that the starting figure for the Inventory would have been higher on a like for like basis.

Admittedly, it shouldn't have much effect on the DOS based figures.

For the Cut Off Date movement at the end of FY2011, it shouldn't have generated that many PWMB, the vast majority of added cases would have been due to porting IMO.

In my analysis, based on EB2, I actually see a pretty high level of porting, with Teddy's 6k as the very bottom of the possible range. I won't bore you with the analysis, since I think any attempt must necessarily have quite a large error margin.

The fact that different people can analyse the same available data and come to completely different conclusions probably says everything about the difficulty of the task from the available data.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

kd,

I'll admit I am not a great fan of analysing the EB3 figures to derive porting. I think the EB2 figures give a much more "accurate" picture.

Far too much is going on with EB3 that distorts the result. EB2 is relatively stable in comparison.

Quite apart form widely differing CP% in EB3, the starting and ending figures are not comparable. In Jan2011 about 10k (from memory) cases were returned to TSC from Local Field Offices. We know neither the Category split or the Country split for these returns. However, we can probably say that the starting figure for the Inventory would have been higher on a like for like basis.

Admittedly, it shouldn't have much effect on the DOS based figures.

For the Cut Off Date movement at the end of FY2011, it shouldn't have generated that many PWMB, the vast majority of added cases would have been due to porting IMO.

In my analysis, based on EB2, I actually see a pretty high level of porting, with Teddy's 6k as the very bottom of the possible range. I won't bore you with the analysis, since I think any attempt must necessarily have quite a large error margin.

The fact that different people can analyse the same available data and come to completely different conclusions probably says everything about the difficulty of the task from the available data.

Thanks for the detailed analysis senior folks on this forum. So, does this all mean that EB2-I is the new EB3-I? Based on this information, could it be a fair conclusion that dates aren't likely to move 'much' past aug/sep '07 even after spring '13.

[pdfeb09]

pdfeb09,

Yes there is a spillover concept in FB as well. It is explained in every VB.

F2A has some strange rules where some approvals are exempt from the numerical limits.

In particular, NO Mexico F2A approvals count against the 7% limit.

In the August VB for example, it says :



Of the 44,732 FB visas that Mexico received, 34,363 were in F2A.

So for calculation purposes (at least as I understand it) Mexico received (44,732 - 34,363) + 9,347 = 19,716 visas, which is 5.39%.

Glad my efforts are appreciated. I have been waiting a long time to post the figures for FY2011.

Those extra numbers for EB2 came at the expense of EB3 and EB3-ROW in particular. I don't think they would share your view, since they lost numbers left, right and centre for various reasons in FY2011.

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation.

As for the extra numbers received by EB2, I was happy because there was no wastage (as against getting more at the expense of EB3) .. I know that EB3 is in a worst possible situation and no loss to them brings me any pleasure.. I was/am afraid that DOS will be over cautious next year because of this extra usage and also because EB2-ROW ended up having a cut-off this time where as EB2IC got a bunch of visas .. I would hate to see any visas go to waste on account of DOS being over cautious. It is unlikely owing to a huge number of pre-adjudicated cases with them now.

[veni001]

FY2011 Visa Approvals

FY2011-EB Visa Approvals

EB2 Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 3,940 --- 8,257 --- 2,542 ------ 78 -- 2,408 --- 17,225
INDIA ----- 4,563 -- 23,997 --- 4,002 ----- 444 ----- 37 --- 33,043
MEXICO ---- 1,206 --- 1,147 --- 6,228 ----- 713 ----- 53 ---- 9,347
PHIL. ------- 171 --- 3,242 --- 3,909 ----- 304 ------ 2 ---- 7,628
ROW ------ 15,349 -- 30,161 -- 20,744 --- 4,842 ---- 963 --- 72,059

TOTAL ---- 25,229 -- 66,804 -- 37,425 --- 6,381 -- 3,463 -- 139,302

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER

EB1 -------- 14,811
EB2-M ------- 1,656
EB2-P -------- (439)
EB2-ROW ---- (1,333)
EB4 --------- 3,559
EB5 --------- 6,477

TOTAL ------ 24,731

SPILLOVER USED

Spillover -- 26,648
EB2-IC ------ 5,606

SOFAD ------ 32,254

SPILLOVER
WASTAGE ---- (1,917)

A negative number indicates that more spillover was used than was available from EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5 i.e. visas were used from EB3!

SPILLOVER ALLOCATION

--------------- No. ---- % --
CHINA ------- 5,454 -- 20.47%
INDIA ------ 21,194 -- 79.53%

TOTAL ------ 26,648 - 100.00%


EB2-WW used 34,550 visas, which is 116 more than the initial allocation of 34,434.
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[/FONT]

Spec,
As usual, Excellent compilation.

Thank you

[harapatta2012]

Does FY2011 start at Oct 2011 and ends at Sep 2012?

[Spectator]

Does FY2011 start at Oct 2011 and ends at Sep 2012?

FY2011 starts October 1, 2010 and ends September 30, 2011.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation.

As for the extra numbers received by EB2, I was happy because there was no wastage (as against getting more at the expense of EB3) .. I know that EB3 is in a worst possible situation and no loss to them brings me any pleasure.. I was/am afraid that DOS will be over cautious next year because of this extra usage and also because EB2-ROW ended up having a cut-off this time where as EB2IC got a bunch of visas .. I would hate to see any visas go to waste on account of DOS being over cautious. It is unlikely owing to a huge number of pre-adjudicated cases with them now.

pd,

I knew what you meant.

However 698 visas were wasted, since the EB total was only 139,302.

It might not be many overall, but any shortfall always disproportionately hurts EB3.

[whereismygc]

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Please post any responses in that thread. This post will be removed in 24 hours.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Spec ,

When do you see EB2- I crossing Dec 2007 .

[pdfeb09]

pd,

I knew what you meant.

However 698 visas were wasted, since the EB total was only 139,302.

It might not be many overall, but any shortfall always disproportionately hurts EB3.

Thanks Spec. I did miss the 139,302 figure. That's a shame !

[uxorian_hot@yahoo.com]

Gurus,

Based on the DOS annual report. If we see same kind of spillover in FY2013 (say about 25k). Any predictions where will PD stand say end of FY2013 and begining of FY2014.

[Spectator]

Gurus,

Based on the DOS annual report. If we see same kind of spillover in FY2013 (say about 25k). Any predictions where will PD stand say end of FY2013 and begining of FY2014.

uxorian,

Welcome to the forum.

I think you will be very disappointed if you think that there will be 25k spillover for EB2-IC in FY2013.

FY2011 was unusual due to the very low number of EB1 approvals (and EB4 as well). I don't think we will see that again. EB5 approvals continue on an upward trend.

In addition, EB2-WW will have a substantial backlog going into FY2013 and may well actually use some of the available spillover in FY2013.

EB2-India needs 6.1k visas just to clear 2007, using USCIS Inventory figures and 4.1k using DOS Demand Data figures.

That doesn't take account of any further Porting numbers. At a mid range of 4.5k Porting, that means 8.6 - 10.6k visas would be required for EB2-I in FY2013, which represents 5.8 - 7.8k spillover to EB2-I.

I fear there won't be sufficient spillover to EB2-I in FY2013 to allow that to happen, unless EB4 yields significant numbers.

[vrs7734]

Spec,

First of all, I was in "read-only" state for last 6 months due to account not activated. Finally it was active yesterday and I could see read the facts section. Just one word...AWESOME!!!

Also I have already signed for whereismygc service. Referring your above post, and result of my PD date to be current; I think there may be some mistake in the service.

The service shows my date will be current in Feb 2014 (PD 06/04/12) and you are saying we will not cross 2007 in 2013. What do you think? Is there even 0.0001% chance?

[Spectator]

Spec,

First of all, I was in "read-only" state for last 6 months due to account not activated. Finally it was active yesterday and I could see read the facts section. Just one word...AWESOME!!!

Also I have already signed for whereismygc service. Referring your above post, and result of my PD date to be current; I think there may be some mistake in the service.

The service shows my date will be current in Feb 2014 (PD 06/04/12) and you are saying we will not cross 2007 in 2013. What do you think? Is there even 0.0001% chance?

vrs7734,

Sorry to here about your problems getting activated, but welcome to the forum.

I'm glad you found the FACTS & DATA section useful and thank you for the compliment.

WhereismyGC is entirely separate from the forum and I am not involved in the forecasts. I suggest you ask Q in the thread in the forum or via the feedback address on WhereismyGC. It may be an error. I can't agree with such an optimistic forecast, but then people do have quite varying views.

If your PD is June 4, 2012 in EB2-I, then I cannot currently see any set of circumstances where it would be Current as early as FY2014 (not even a 0.0001% chance). It is so far away, I wouldn't even hazard a guess when it might be.

Sorry I can't be more optimistic, but then I am probably the most pessimistic forecaster on the forum. Please bear that in mind.

[pch053]

As Spec mentioned, EB2-I with 2012 PD is way far off to predict at this point; not to sound pessimistic but it is extremely unlikely that it will be current in FY2014. I think there are already ~39K pending EB2-I applications. These applicants have PD up to May'10. In addition, there will be anywhere between 3K - 6K EB3->EB2 porting every year, based on different estimates. The # of EB2I cases that will be approved each year will depend on the amount of spillover visas received from other categories. Spec's estimate that EB2-I will not cross 2007 is based on his forecast of spillover visas. Even in the best case estimate of spillover visas, EB2-I is unlikely to go past 1st - 2nd quarter of 2008. Until now, the thumb rule for EB2-I for receiving their greencards has been PD + 5 years. Based on current circumstances, I think the 5 year wait might increase further. However, if HR3012 becomes a law, the situation will change all together and the current estimates don't assume any existence of HR3012 (which may or may not become a law in future).

[whereismygc]

Spec Thanks for clarifying.

vrs7734,
...

WhereismyGC is entirely separate from the forum and I am not involved in the forecasts. I suggest you ask Q in the thread in the forum or via the feedback address on WhereismyGC. It may be an error. I can't agree with such an optimistic forecast, but then people do have quite varying views.

Spec...
Also I have already signed for whereismygc service. ... I think there may be some mistake in the service.

The service shows my date will be current in Feb 2014 (PD 06/04/12) and you are saying we will not cross 2007 in 2013.

vrs - I have fixed the tool. Generally speaking the problem is that the tool works on FIFO manner. And that works quite well generally. However in 2012 DOS/USCIS approved large number of 2008 cases. Other than that I also had a long pending task of fixing the data. Which most of it I did today. So please check back and let me know if you have further questions on the whereismygc thread.

[punjabi]

As Spec mentioned, EB2-I with 2012 PD is way far off to predict at this point; not to sound pessimistic but it is extremely unlikely that it will be current in FY2014. I think there are already ~39K pending EB2-I applications. These applicants have PD up to May'10. In addition, there will be anywhere between 3K - 6K EB3->EB2 porting every year, based on different estimates. The # of EB2I cases that will be approved each year will depend on the amount of spillover visas received from other categories. Spec's estimate that EB2-I will not cross 2007 is based on his forecast of spillover visas. Even in the best case estimate of spillover visas, EB2-I is unlikely to go past 1st - 2nd quarter of 2008. Until now, the thumb rule for EB2-I for receiving their greencards has been PD + 5 years. Based on current circumstances, I think the 5 year wait might increase further. However, if HR3012 becomes a law, the situation will change all together and the current estimates don't assume any existence of HR3012 (which may or may not become a law in future).

So what are your thoughts for pd of nov 2008 .Would appreciate a reply

[vizcard]

So what are your thoughts for pd of nov 2008 .Would appreciate a reply

FY2014....late...most likely.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

FY2014....late...most likely.

Any thoughts / predictions for a PD of (late) July 2008?