EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[pdfeb09]

The 15K cliam is a bit outrageous. However, I am 100% confident that the ONLY way it could be true is IFF (if and only if!) EB3IC from 2007-8-9-10 have been converting to EB2 and it started showing up only after all these date movements of EB2IC.

If you think about it - that gels very well with out original theory of 3-6K total porting per year.

So while that may be true - I am not quite worried ... since then that 15K is already baked into all the filings until 2010 for EB2IC.

Makes sense? Critique this.

"All of these cases had priority dates before 2007, so clearly, they were upgrades. For example, 363 of the 2,800 EB-2 cases from India that were approved in March 2012, had a 2005 priority date."

Q, I think the only way they can tell if it was an upgrade is to ensure that the PD was prior to 2007. Otherwise there is no way to tell if it was an upgrade unless the GC is actually issued and the related case taken off of USIS' inventory.

EDIT: I do feel that 15K is huge and improbable. Given the hoops people have to jump through to pull off the upgrade in a tough economy. However if this is true, we have a loooooooooong wait coming up.

[Jonty Rhodes]

We all talked about this possibility, cautious allocation of visa numbers in FY2013, and possibility of CO not doing a quarterly spillover in FY2013 when July VB came out and this is not surprising at all but nevertheless posting it here since saw this on Oh law firm website.

06/28/2012: Unconfirmed FY-2013 (10/01/2012-09/30/2013) Employment-Based Visa Cut-Off Dates Prediction

Determination of visa cut-off dates for the monthly Visa Bulletin relies on so many variable or even unpredictable consumption of visa demands by the USCIS and Visa Posts throughout the world. In the employment-based immigration cases, reportedly 85% to 90% numbers are consumed by the USCIS for the EB-485 approvals. What will be demands from EB-485 applications in the new fiscal year is anyone's game of speculation, but unconfirmed sources indicate as follows based on some information from the Department of State:

The world-wide cut-off date for EB-2 is likely to change to "Current" in October 2012, meaning that there will be no EB-2 visa number regression coming October 1, 2012 for the world-wide countries other than India and China.

EB-2 cut-off date for India and China is likely to move back to August or September 2007, the previous cut-off date before it became unavailable lately. Again the same unconfirmed sources indicate that the new October 2012 cut-off date for India and China EB-2 may not further progress for the first two quarters of FY 2013 which ends on March 31, 2013.

The foregoing prediction will be wiped out if the Congress passes H.R. 3012, eliminating employment-based visa per country annual limitation.

[vizcard]

Someone really needs to pass on COs comments to the Senate. His words essentially say that an applicant is "approved" but cannot get his/ her green card because of the numbers game. In other words its not a matter of if but its a matter of when.

[openaccount]

here is what i think might happen if similar numbers/demand repeats in FY2013 across EB categories

In 2012 EB2IC received approximately 24k SOFAD below is break down

5.6k+18.4 SO.
EB2ROW is almost 'U' for 2012 Q4 & there are indications from DOS about EB1 having cutoff date in Aug/Sept this implies around 8-9k visas were allocated to EB2IC which should have gone to EB2ROW/EB1 in 2012. If this was the case EB2IC should have got 5.6k+10k(18.4-8.4)---15.6k in 2012, EB2IC got an excess of about 8-9k this year.

Next year if SOFAD is 15.6k then EB2ROW/EB1 will consume at least 5-6k more than what was consumed in 2013 as demand from 2012 is carried over into 2013, that brings SOFAD to EB2IC in 2013 to 15.6-5.6-->10k. EB2C will use not more than 2.8 k. EB2I will get around 7-8k, EB3-EB2 porting will be around 5-6k.

3 scenarios for EB2I in FY2013:

1)SOFAD 8k--EB2I PD--Oct/Nov2007
2)SOFAD 10K--EB2I PD-- Dec2007
3)SOFAD 13k--This is possible only if EB1/EB2ROW/EB5 demand decreases in
2013. This will take EB2I PD to Jan/Feb2008

Again this is assuming that EB1/EB2ROW/EB5 demand and Eb3-Eb2 porting will be similar to FY2012. It might be to early to predict but based on I-140/Perm/Porting numbers, I am expecting 2013 will be no different than 2012 in terms of EB1/EB2ROW/EB5 demand and Eb3-Eb2 porting

[cricfan]

Hi All,

This is a completely unrelated question. I will delete the question once it is answered.

I am going to visit India in 1st week of Sep' 12. I have a valid EAD/AP combo card. However, my indian passport will be valid for less than 6 months when I return back. Will this create any problem for me while departing India or at POE here in US ?
I plan to use AP to enter US.

[gaikwrr]

Hi Cricfan,
I would suggest you to get the passport renewed here in US as soon as possible. It is very easy and takes about a week if you go to Indian Consulate here in US in person. It is always safe to travel with a passport valid for more than 6 months at any POE.

[veni001]

Thanks, Vishnu.

Q & Spec, any thoughts?

The 15K cliam is a bit outrageous. However, I am 100% confident that the ONLY way it could be true is IFF (if and only if!) EB3IC from 2007-8-9-10 have been converting to EB2 and it started showing up only after all these date movements of EB2IC.

If you think about it - that gels very well with out original theory of 3-6K total porting per year.

So while that may be true - I am not quite worried ... since then that 15K is already baked into all the filings until 2010 for EB2IC.

Makes sense? Critique this.

Agree, PERM Certification Vs I140 data is also not pointing towards high porting numbers.

We beat porting calculations to death in FY2011 thread.

[qesehmk]

I missed where it says all these cases were 2007 or earlier. If that's what CO is saying then it absolutely is wrong unless he is referring to all portings in last 2-3 years.

If he is referring to portings that happened this year (regardless of the PD year), the number is huge but it is possible if the PDs correspond to all years but especially 2007-2010.

See a porting case is not going to be ported until they have to adjudicate it. Now when will something get adjudicated? ONly after the date is current.

So think about all the EB3s from 2007-2010. They can't port until the date becomes current. So theoretically its possible that 3-6K per year from those years may get ported.

However what is not so intuitive is - why would somebody file EB3 in 2010 and then immediately port it in 2 years in 2012? And will there be thousands like that?

I don't really know.

Veni you mentioned that the data doesnt support. I am not sure I understood. I think those 15K should be already part of all the labors and 485s. They are not incremental to the approved PERMs.

"All of these cases had priority dates before 2007, so clearly, they were upgrades. For example, 363 of the 2,800 EB-2 cases from India that were approved in March 2012, had a 2005 priority date."

Q, I think the only way they can tell if it was an upgrade is to ensure that the PD was prior to 2007. Otherwise there is no way to tell if it was an upgrade unless the GC is actually issued and the related case taken off of USIS' inventory.

EDIT: I do feel that 15K is huge and improbable. Given the hoops people have to jump through to pull off the upgrade in a tough economy. However if this is true, we have a loooooooooong wait coming up.

[qesehmk]

Veni - even if you port - you still file 140 right? So there is really no way to tell how many portings are there other than looking at trackitt and finding out EB3s getting approved with PDs that are NOT current.

Agree, PERM Certification Vs I140 data is also not pointing towards high porting numbers.

We beat porting calculations to death in FY2011 thread.

[Spectator]

Veni - even if you port - you still file 140 right? So there is really no way to tell how many portings are there other than looking at trackitt and finding out EB3s getting approved with PDs that are NOT current.

Q,

Without fully understanding what Veni is saying, I agree.

I don't think Trackitt can really give really good information about Porting either.

To date, 63 EB3-I cases have been approved when the PD wasn't Current, but the majority of Porters actually remember to change the Preference Category to EB2.

There are a further 190 cases shown under EB2-I with a PD before 2007.

That would suggest a figure of 4-6k, but it is probably more complicated than that.

Other Countries are virtually impossible to pick up. EB2-ROW has 84 approvals prior to 2011, but these represent a mixture of Porters, Cross Chargeability and cases that just took a long time to adjudicate. Perhaps I will go through them thoroughly one day.

It has been and continues to be the most difficult figure to derive from the data available to us.

[veni001]

Q,

Without fully understanding what Veni is saying, I agree.
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It has been and continues to be the most difficult figure to derive from the data available to us.

Veni - even if you port - you still file 140 right? So there is really no way to tell how many portings are there other than looking at trackitt and finding out EB3s getting approved with PDs that are NOT current.

Q,
That's correct.

First, FY2012 PERM Vs 140 data to-date points towards higher EB1/EB2-NIW.

Second, Unless half of the PERM certifications are for EB3-->EB2 porting, 15K number is not a possibility.

If porting is anywhere near 15K then based on PERM certifications and 140 data future EB2 as well as EB3 demand should be very low!

I agree with Spec, this has been the most difficult number for us to deduce from the data available to us.

[Spectator]

Q,
That's correct.

First, FY2012 PERM Vs 140 data to-date points towards higher EB1/EB2-NIW.

Second, Unless half of the PERM certifications are for EB3-->EB2 porting, 15K number is not a possibility.

If porting is anywhere near 15K then based on PERM certifications and 140 data future EB2 as well as EB3 demand should be very low!

I agree with Spec, this has been the most difficult number for us to deduce from the data available to us.

Veni,

Thanks for the explanation. I understand now.

I had a look at the EB2-ROW cases.

About a quarter of approvals with PDs before 2011 are Cross Chargeability.

Only 3 were provable as EB3-EB2 porting.

I have looked at a fair number of the remainder. Some were definitely caused by the PERM going into audit for a very long time, and most of the others are explainable for the same reason. Some could have been EB2-EB2 but there is no direct evidence for that.

EB3-ROW approvals have 3 definite Porting cases where the PD was not Current at the time of approval.

Conclusion - Trackitt data can't tell us anything about ROW Porting. I pretty much knew that already, but this, for me at least, confirms it.

It is good to revisit the subject from time to time, but I'm not sure anything has changed since the last time it was discussed, other than CO's "guesstimates" and the fact that we should perhaps give more weight to Chinese and ROW porting numbers.

[cricfan]

Hi Cricfan,
I would suggest you to get the passport renewed here in US as soon as possible. It is very easy and takes about a week if you go to Indian Consulate here in US in person. It is always safe to travel with a passport valid for more than 6 months at any POE.

Thanks gaikwrr.

[kd2008]

Veni,

Thanks for the explanation. I understand now.

I had a look at the EB2-ROW cases.

About a quarter of approvals with PDs before 2011 are Cross Chargeability.

Only 3 were provable as EB3-EB2 porting.

I have looked at a fair number of the remainder. Some were definitely caused by the PERM going into audit for a very long time, and most of the others are explainable for the same reason. Some could have been EB2-EB2 but there is no direct evidence for that.

EB3-ROW approvals have 3 definite Porting cases where the PD was not Current at the time of approval.

Conclusion - Trackitt data can't tell us anything about ROW Porting. I pretty much knew that already, but this, for me at least, confirms it.

It is good to revisit the subject from time to time, but I'm not sure anything has changed since the last time it was discussed, other than CO's "guesstimates" and the fact that we should perhaps give more weight to Chinese and ROW porting numbers.

Instead of chatting with AILA, Mr. CO needs to sit down with you and have a very long discussion. I am pretty sure after this chat there never ever will be unexpected movements followed by retrogression.

My take on the issue is this: the semantics of porting or upgraders is irrelevant. For us the what matter is the reduction in pending demand of EB3. This is the ultimate source of numbers being consumed either through actual EB3 usage or porting to EB2.

One of the reasons that EB3 usage was lower than actual quota last year may be this: USCIS never bothered to tell Mr. CO to remove duplicates in EB3 resulting from porting. So Mr. CO did not move EB3 dates aggressively. USCIS simply said to Mr. CO it is ok, we will used them in EB2 as these folks have upgraded any ways.

[self.coach]

I applied for i-485 in Feb and got EAD in March, I am still within the 6months duration for both events. My H1 expires on Sept 2013.

I wasnt able to find my own previous post (duh), but earlier I had asked if I can open a LLC/C-corp/S-corp while on EAD.
The consensus was yes.

Now, if I have an opportunity to get consulting fees from a business - can I get it on my SSN as I have EAD now, or should I go the LLC route? The business has asked me to fill up this form "W-9 Request for Taxpayer Identification Number and Certification" in order to get paid and it already owes me money. Please advise how I shguld get paid.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Guys ,

I got a missing section on medical form RFE last week and my attorney responded back to USCIS that changed the status to RFE response review. Now at this point, since my dates are not current , what am I to interpret my status ?

Mine is a dependent EAD based on spouse I 485 ( Already approved ) .

Can I switch for another job , currently on H1b .

[vizcard]

I applied for i-485 in Feb and got EAD in March, I am still within the 6months duration for both events. My H1 expires on Sept 2013.

I wasnt able to find my own previous post (duh), but earlier I had asked if I can open a LLC/C-corp/S-corp while on EAD.
The consensus was yes.

Now, if I have an opportunity to get consulting fees from a business - can I get it on my SSN as I have EAD now, or should I go the LLC route? The business has asked me to fill up this form "W-9 Request for Taxpayer Identification Number and Certification" in order to get paid and it already owes me money. Please advise how I shguld get paid.

You can use your SSN for now but it would be wise to create a business (LLC or Sole Proprietorship) to be able to deduct business expenses when you file your tax return. Otherwise all the income you earn will be considered personal income and taxed accordingly.

Link to the response for you earlier post - > http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8153#post28153

[vizcard]

Guys ,

I got a missing section on medical form RFE last week and my attorney responded back to USCIS that changed the status to RFE response review. Now at this point, since my dates are not current , what am I to interpret my status ?

Mine is a dependent EAD based on spouse I 485 ( Already approved ) .

Can I switch for another job , currently on H1b .

Your status is still the same - 485 pending. Also, you can switch jobs as long as your EAD is valid. Keep a close watch on the expiration date and make sure you apply for renewal 3-4 months in advance of expiration.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Your status is still the same - 485 pending. Also, you can switch jobs as long as your EAD is valid. Keep a close watch on the expiration date and make sure you apply for renewal 3-4 months in advance of expiration.

Thanks Vizcard .... another question..since mine is a dependent EAD, when filing extension , is being employed a pre-requisite or irrelevant ...thank you

[vizcard]

Thanks Vizcard .... another question..since mine is a dependent EAD, when filing extension , is being employed a pre-requisite or irrelevant ...thank you

Irrelevant. The EAD application is based on a pending 485 so as long as your 485 is pending, you can have EAD. Same with AP btw.

[bieber]

Your status is still the same - 485 pending. Also, you can switch jobs as long as your EAD is valid. Keep a close watch on the expiration date and make sure you apply for renewal 3-4 months in advance of expiration.

vizcard, how early one can apply for extension of EAD/AP

[vizcard]

vizcard, how early one can apply for extension of EAD/AP

Not sure. But the processing time is 3 months and with the new Obama amnesty law it might be longer. I'd plan for a 4 month window.

[Spectator]

vizcard, how early one can apply for extension of EAD/AP

bieber,

You cannot currently apply for renewal more than 120 days from expiration. If you do, you risk rejection of the application.

For example, from this document

When should I file for an extension of my employment authorization?

You should not file more than 120 days before the expiration date shown on your current employment authorization document; however, you should file 90 days before the expiration date.

[yank]

Please let me know risk associated with changing an employer after completing 180 days with old employer. I have a full time job offer and want to accept this offer. Is filing AC-21 will impact my 485?

[veni001]

Please let me know risk associated with changing an employer after completing 180 days with old employer. I have a full time job offer and want to accept this offer. Is filing AC-21 will impact my 485?

yank,
As long as your new job is in the same/similar field, you can use Ac21 and switch employers after 180 days from 485 filing date.